jra-‐55 based surface atmospheric data set for driving ocean-‐sea

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OMDP extended mee,ng 14 January 2016 @JAMSTEC (Yokohama, Japan) 45min JRA55 based surface atmospheric data set for driving oceansea ice models Hiroyuki Tsujino (JMAMRI) Special thanks to numerous inputs received in the framework of OMDPJRA55 collabora,ve effort

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Page 1: JRA-‐55 based surface atmospheric data set for driving ocean-‐sea

OMDP  extended  mee,ng    14  January  2016  

@JAMSTEC  (Yokohama,  Japan)  45min  

JRA-­‐55  based  surface  atmospheric  data  set  for  driving  ocean-­‐sea  ice  models  

Hiroyuki  Tsujino  (JMA-­‐MRI)  Special  thanks  to  numerous  inputs  received  in  the  framework  of    

OMDP-­‐JRA55  collabora,ve  effort  

Page 2: JRA-‐55 based surface atmospheric data set for driving ocean-‐sea

Outline

1.  Background  

2.  Dataset  aWributes  

3.  Adjustment  on  surface  state  of  JRA-­‐55  

4.  Valida,on  

5.  Plan  for  version  1

Page 3: JRA-‐55 based surface atmospheric data set for driving ocean-‐sea

1.  Background

•  Mo#va#on:                  -­‐  Simula,on  of  recent  climate  extreme  events                      (e.g.,  Arc,c  sea  ice  reduc,on,  GW  hiatus,  ongoing  El  Nino,  …)                        using  Ocean-­‐Sea  ice  models,  as  an  extension  of  a  long-­‐term  simula,on,                      to  understand  them  in  the  context  of  long-­‐term  variability  

•  Requirements  to  forcing  datasets:       -­‐  Quality  controlled  long-­‐term  dataset,  also  made  available  near-­‐real  ,me                    -­‐  Temporal  and  spa,al  resolu,on  as  high  as  possible  to  facilitate  high-­‐                        resolu,on  simula,ons  

•  JRA55:                    -­‐  JRA55  (Kobayashi  et  al.  2015)  is  one  of  the  most  recently  conducted                        long-­‐term  reanalyses  using  high-­‐resolu,on  (~55  km)  model  and  updated                          assimila,on  techniques                  -­‐  JRA55  s,ll  needs  some  adjustments  (bias  correc,on)  as  done                        in  CORE  (to  NCEP/NCAR  reanalysis)  and  DRAKKAR  (to  ERA)  projects.                    

Page 4: JRA-‐55 based surface atmospheric data set for driving ocean-‐sea

Surface  heat  flux  components  globally  averaged  over  the  ice-­‐free  ocean

Green:  CORE  (Large  and  Yeager  2009)  Red:  JRA55  product  (JRA55-­‐v0.0)

Blue:  JRA55-­‐v0.1      -­‐  2m  → 10m  shie  of  air  temperature  and            specific  humidity  using  surface  roughness            of  JRA55-­‐v0.0    Purple:  JRA55-­‐v0.1b      -­‐  2m  →  10m  shie  of  air  temperature  and            specific  humidity  using  Large  and  Yeager            (2009)  bulk  formula  

•  In  ocean-­‐sea  ice  models,  fluxes  are  diagnosed  on  the  basis  of  the  surface  state,  using  another  set  of  formulae  (e.g.,  Large  and  Yeager  2009).  The  resultant  fluxes  may  differ  considerably.  

•  Fluxes  are  also  sensi,ve  to  how  surface  state  variables  are  shieed  in  height.  

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Project  to  produce  the  data  set  based  on  JRA55

•  We  started  to  consider  producing  a  JRA-­‐55  based  data  set  for  driving  ocean-­‐sea  ice  models  in  2014  

•  The  idea  was  presented  in  “Forcing  mini-­‐workshop”  at  Grenoble  in  Jan2015.                    Par,cipants  were  generally  suppor,ve.  OMDP-­‐JRA55  collabora,on  started    •  Adjustment  method  and  features  of  interannual  variability  are  examined  

during  2015  so  that  the  data  set  deserves  wide  use  

•  Japanese  ac,vity  is  supported  by  a  research  grant  from  JSPS  (fy2015-­‐2018)    

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2.  Dataset  a6ributes

Elements  Ø  Downward  short  /  long  wave  flux  …  average  Ø  Precipita,on  (rain  and  snow)  …  average  Ø  10  m  vector  wind  …  instantaneous  Ø  10  m  air  temperature,  specific  humidity  …  instantaneous  

 (shieed  from  their  original  height  at  2  m)  Ø  Sea  level  pressure  …  instantaneous  

Suppor#ng  data  Ø  Unadjusted  fields  of  the  above  (named  version  0.1)  Ø  Land-­‐sea  mask  Ø  Surface  brightness  temperature  and  Ice  distribu,on  Ø  SST  and  sea  ice  distribu,on  (COBESST;  Ishii  et  al.  2005)  

•  All  elements  are  based  on  “forecast  mode”  of  JRA-­‐55  •  Period:  1958-­‐present  (updated  near-­‐real  ,me)  •  Interval:  3-­‐hour  •  TL319  regular  grid  (~  55km)  (originally  on  “reduced”  grid)  

Surface  atmospheric  states    

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River  run-­‐off  to  the  ocean

•  Unavailable  from  JRA-­‐55  

•  Our  plan  is  to  run  a  river  model  opera,onally              using  water  runoff  from  the  land  surface  part  of  JRA-­‐55                    → Current  status  will  be  presented  by  T.  Suzuki  

•  A  global  river  model  CaMaFlood  (Yamazaki  et  al.  2011)  is  used                      → Details  of  the  river  model  will  be  presented  by  D.  Yamazaki  

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Versions  of  JRA-­‐55  based  surface  dataset

•  Version  0.0:  JRA-­‐55  Product  (when  this  name  is  useful)  •  Version  0.1:  Unadjusted  JRA-­‐55  on  regular  TL319  grid                  -­‐  Zonally  interpolated  from  the  (original)  reduced  TL319  grid                  -­‐  2  m  temp  and  humidity  is  shieed  to  10  m  using  surface                          roughness  of  JRA-­‐55  →  10  m  values  are  adjusted  for  v0.2  •  Version  0.2:  Adjustment  on  version  0.1  (Mar  2015)  •  Version  0.3:  Revised  adjustment  (Dec  2015)                  -­‐  2  m  temp  and  humidity  is  adjusted  on  2  m  and  then  shieed  to                          10  m  using  LY09  formula                  -­‐  Adjustment  is  done  essen,ally  on  v0.0  •  Version  0.4:  Very  low  temperature  is  cut-­‐off  around  Antarc,ca  

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Strategy

ü  Evalua,on  of  global  surface  heat  and  fresh  water  flux  budget,              followed  by  re-­‐adjustment  for  downward  fluxes •  Global  surface  heat  flux  budget  (sea  ice  region  excluded)  is  computed  using  

COBESST  (Ishii  et  al.  2005)  as  a  lower  boundary  condi,on  and  Large  and  Yeager  (2009)  formulae  for  bulk  transfer  coefficient  and  albedo      

                       -­‐  Proper,es  of  moist  air  taken  from  the  textbook  of  Gill  (1982)  •  Downward  short/long  wave  are  re-­‐adjusted  so  that  total  heat  flux  ~ 0  for  

1988-­‐2007  

•  Any  river  run  off  data  should  be  adjusted  so  that  its  long-­‐term  mean  (1988-­‐2007)  is  the  same  as  CORE  (1.22  Sv;  Dai  et  al.  2009).  

•  Precipita,on  is  re-­‐adjusted  so  that    E-­‐P-­‐R  ~  0    for  1988-­‐2007.

ü  Follow  the  method  of  Large  and  Yeager  (2009)  used  for  CORE  •  Apply  mul,plica,ve  or  offset  factors  to  the  surface  state  variables  of  JRA-­‐55  •  To  produce  forcing  dataset  near-­‐real  ,me,  all  elements  (including  radia,on  

and  precipita,on)  are  based  on  JRA55.  We  make  adjustments  to  them.  •  Adjustment  factors  are  climatological:  we  do  not  touch  interannual  varia,ons  

3.  Adjustment  on  the  surface  state  of  JRA-­‐55  

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reference  data

adj  factor  based  on

Bme  dependency

spaBal  dependency  

How  is  the  factor  used

short  wave CORE   1984-­‐2007 monthly   (x,y)  &  constant

mul,ply  

long  wave CORE 1984-­‐2007 monthly (x,y)  &  constant

mul,ply

precipita,on CORE 1979-­‐2008 monthly (x,y)  &  constant

mul,ply

air  temperature CORE 1979-­‐2008 monthly (x,y) offset

specific  humidity CORE 1979-­‐2008 monthly (x,y) mul,ply

wind  speed QuikSCAT nov1999-­‐oct2009

constant (x,y) mul,ply

wind  angle QuikSCAT nov1999-­‐oct2009

constant (x,y) offset

Summary  of  the  adjustment  method  for  v0.2  (Mar  2015)

Blue:  devia,on  from  CORE  

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reference  data

adj  factor  based  on

Bme  dependency

spaBal  dependency  

How  is  the  factor  used

short  wave adjusted  CERES%  

mar2000-­‐feb2015

monthly   (x,y)  &  constant

mul,ply  

long  wave adjusted  CERES%

mar2000-­‐feb2015

monthly (x,y)  &  constant

mul,ply

precipita,on CORE 1979-­‐2008 monthly (x,y)  &  constant

mul,ply

air  temperature JRA55-­‐anl_surf#  IABP-­‐NPOLES

1979-­‐1998 monthly (x,y) offset

specific  humidity JRA55-­‐anl_surf# 1979-­‐1998 monthly (x,y) mul,ply

wind  speed QuikSCAT*  JRA55-­‐anl_surf#

aug1999-­‐oct2009

monthly (x,y) mul,ply

wind  angle QuikSCAT*  JRA55-­‐anl_surf#

aug1999-­‐oct2009

monthly (x,y)   offset  

Summary  of  the  adjustment  method  for  v0.3  (Dec  2015)  (Aeer  extensive  discussions  with  collaborators)

Red:  change  from  v0.2   (%)  CERES-­‐EBAFv2.8  Surface  (Kato  et  al.  2013)  (*)  Remote  Sensing  Systems  0.25  x  0.25  data  set  version  4  (#)  Screen  level  analysis  of  JRA55

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3.1  Radia,on  flux  adjustment

•  For  v0.3,  we  use  CERES-­‐EBAFv2.8  Surface  (Mar2000-­‐Feb2015)  (Kato  et  al.  2013)  for  downward  radia,on  adjustment

-­‐  Both  SW  and  LW  radia,on  should  be  compared  with  buoy  measurements  before  they  are  used  as  a  reference  data  as  LY09  did  for  ISCCP-­‐FD  

-­‐  Apply  necessary  adjustment  to  CERES

•  For  v0.2,  we  used  CORE  version  2  (Large  and  Yeager  2009).  -­‐    CORE  version  2  radia,on  is  based  on  ISCCP-­‐FD,  with  some  adjustments            applied  by  Large  and  Yeager  (2009)    -­‐    In  recent  assessments,  CERES  is  widely  used  as  a  reference  data    -­‐    Data  period  of  CERES  has  now  reached  15  years  

Reference  data

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Bias  of  CERES-­‐EBAF  2.8  surface  downward    SW  radia,on  rela,ve  to  Buoys  

•  CERES  has  posi,ve  bias  in  the  tropics  except  for  the  Equator  •  CERES’s  tropical  posi,ve  biases  are  larger  in  the  NH  than  the  SH  •  Biases  are  generally  small  in  la,tudes  higher  than  30oN/S.  

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JRA55-­‐v0.1  CORE  CERES  CERESadj

Zonal  mean  downward  SW  over  the  ocean

Max  4%  reduc,on  at  10oN

Max  3%  reduc,on  at  10oS

Reduce  CERES  SW  radia,on  as  a  func,on  of  la,tude  (profile  is  given  in  the  boWom  slide:  CERESadj  /  CERES)

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CERES-­‐EBAF  2.8  surface  downward  long  wave  

JRA-­‐55-­‐v0.1  CORE  CERES

Zonal  mean  over  the  ocean

•  CERES  LW  radia,on  will  not  be  adjusted:  Used  as  a  reference  as  it  is  

•  Globally  uniform  ,me-­‐invariant  factor  will  be  applied  to  both  SW  and  LW  to  close  surface  heat  flux  budget  in  the  2nd  adjustment  step  for  JRA-­‐55

bias CERES  should  be  

reduced  by…

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1.  Monthly  mul,plica,ve  factors  are  determined  on  the  basis  of  15yr  (mar2000-­‐feb2015)  monthly  climatology  of  adjusted  CERES  and  JRA-­‐55,  and  are  applied  for  the  en,re  period  

2.  A  globally  uniform,  ,me-­‐invariant  factor  (=0.977933,  i.e.,  2.2%  reduc,on)  is  applied  to  both  SW  and  LW  to  achieve  a  global  heat  flux  balance  for  the  period  1988-­‐2007  

Adjustment  steps  for  short  and  long  wave  radia,on    of  JRA-­‐55

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Mul,plica,ve  factor  for  SW  (annual  mean  of  monthly  factors) v0.2  (ref  CORE)

v0.3  (ref  CERESadj)

Mul,plica,ve  factor  for  LW  (annual  mean  of  monthly  factors)

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3.2  Precipita,on  adjustment

•  Reference  is  CORE  (1979-­‐2008)                  (from  south  to  north,  GPCP,  CMAP,  GPCP,  CMAP,  and  climatology                  around  the  Arc,c:  so  called  GCGCS)    •  We  did  not  find  strong  reason  to  replace  CORE  with  another  data  set  

(assessment  made  by  J.  Small@NCAR)  

•  Monthly  factors  (0.2  <  f  <  5.0)  are  computed  and  applied  for  the  en,re  period  

•  Evapora,on  is  computed  aeer  the  first  adjustment  for  all  elements.  Then  a  globally  uniform,  ,me-­‐invariant  factor  (=0.969863,  3%  percent  reduc,on)  is  applied  to  close  the  freshwater  budget,  assuming  that  the  global  mean  river  run  off  equals  1.22  Sv  for  the  period  1988-­‐2007  

Adjustment  method  for  precipita,on  is  the  same  for  v0.2  and  v0.3  

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Mul,plica,ve  factor  for  precipita,on  (annual  mean  of  monthly  factors)

Green:  CORE  Red:  JRA55v0.1  Blue:  JRA55v0.3  

Zonal  mean  precipita,on  over  the  ocean

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For  version  0.3,  we  make  use  of  surface  analysis  of  JRA55  (anl_surf)  to  adjust  surface  atmospheric  state  variables  (air  temperature,  specific  humidity,  vector  wind)  

About  surface  analysis  of  JRA55

From  Sec#on  3.2.a  of  Kobayashi  et  al.  (2015):  -­‐  Analysis  of  screen-­‐level  variables  (2  m  temperature,  2  m  rela,ve  

humidity,  and  10  m  winds)  is  performed  separately  from  the  atmospheric  analysis  component,  using  2-­‐D  OI  

-­‐  Observa,on  on  islands  and  coast  are  NOT  used  -­‐  Screen-­‐level  analysis  fields  are  NOT  used  as  ini,al  condi,ons  for  

forecasts

3.3  Surface  atmospheric  state  adjustment

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•  IABP-­‐NPOLES  (Jan1979-­‐Dec1998)  and  JRA-­‐55  anl_surf  (surface  analysis)  for  2  m  temperature

-­‐  Mainly  to  avoid  ripples  of  adjustment  factors  that  come  from  CORE  -­‐  IABP-­‐NPOLES  are  used  to  adjust  temperature  on  sea  ice  in  the  Arc,c  Ocean,  

JRA55-­‐anl_surf  is  used  elsewhere

•  JRA-­‐55  anl_surf    for  2m  specific  humidity

3.3.1    Air  temperature  and  specific  humidity Reference  data v0.2

v0.3

•  CORE  for  both  10  m  air  temperature  and  10  m  specific  humidity                    -­‐  2m  data  from  original  JRA-­‐55  is  shieed  to  10  m  using                          surface  roughness  output  of  JRA-­‐55  → v0.1                    -­‐  CORE  and  v0.1  is  compared  at  10  m  to  produce  v0.2  

Note:    For  v0.3,  adjustments  are  done  on  JRA-­‐55’s  na,ve  (reduced  TL319)  grid.  Other  reference  data  are  also  interpolated  on  JRA-­‐55’s  na,ve  grid.  

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1.  Monthly  offse|ng  factor  for  2  m  air  temperature  is  determined  on  the  basis  of  20-­‐yr  (1979-­‐1998;  the  period  constrained  by  availability  of  IABP-­‐NPOLES)  monthly  climatology  

2.  Monthly  offse|ng  factor  is  applied  for  the  en,re  dataset  period.  During  this  processing,  rela,ve  humidity  is  kept,  i.e.,  2  m  specific  humidity  is  also  modified  

3.  Monthly  mul,plica,ve  factor  for  this  intermediate  2  m  specific  humidity  is  determined  using  20yr  (1979-­‐1998)  monthly  climatology  of  JRA55  surface  analysis  

4.  Monthly  mul,plica,ve  factor  is  applied  to  2  m  specific  humidity  for  the  en,re  data  set  period  

5.  Aeer  the  adjustment  to  all  elements,  2  m  temperature  and  specific  humidity  are  shieed  to  10  m  using  LY09  formula,  meteorological  variables,  and  SST  (COBESST  over  the  ocean,  brightness  temperature  otherwise)

Adjustment  steps  for  air  temperature  and  specific  humidity  for  v0.3

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Offse|ng  factor  for  air  temperature    (annual  mean  of  monthly  factors)

v0.2  (@10m):  reference  is  CORE

v0.3  (@2m):  reference  is    JRA55  anl_surf  over  sea  water  IABP-­‐NPOLES  over  sea  ice

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Cut  off  of  extremely  low  temperature  around  Antarc,ca  for  version  0.4  

•       Because  atmospheric  model  of  JRA-­‐55  does  not  allow  par,al  sea  ice  cover,  separate  adjustment  should  be  considered  for  air  temperature  over  sea  ice.  This  is  done  for  the  Arc,c  by  using  IABP-­‐NPOLES.    

•       For  the  Antarc,c  region,  we  followed  the  adjustment  employed  by  Large  and  Yeager  (2004)  for  the  CORE  data  set:  Extremely  low  temperatures  are  cut  off  by  using  a  sinusoidal  fits  to  observed  monthly  minimum  temperature  as  a  func,on  of  la,tude  south  of  60oS.  

Black:    v0.3  Red:        v0.4

Sensi#vity  test  will  be  presented  by  S.  Urakawa  later

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v0.2:  based  on  CORE v0.3:  based  on  JRA55  anl_surf

“Error”  of  turbulent  heat  flux  of  v0.2  provided  by  P.  Hyder  (UKMetOffice)  

(posi,ve  into  the  ocean)

Mul,plica,ve  factor  for  specific  humidity  a\er  the  temperature  adjustment  (annual  mean  of  monthly  factors)

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Green:  CORE,  Red:  JRA55v0.1,  Grey:  JRA55v0.2,  Blue:  JRA55v0.3  

Zonal  mean  10  m  air  temperature Zonal  mean  10  m  specific  humidity

devia,on  from  NOCS

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3.3.2    Vector  Wind

•  Remote  sensing  systems  QuikSCAT  v4                (Ricciardulli  and  Wentz,  2011)  •  Gaps  of  QuikSCAT  are  filled  with  JRA55-­‐

anl_surf  •  QuikSCAT  winds  are  adjusted  in  terms  of  

stability  before  they  are  blended  with  JRA-­‐55  anl_surf  vector  wind  

Reference  data

Grey:  Remote  Sensing  Systems  QuikSCAT  v4  (neutral  10m  wind)  Blue:  Remote  Sensing  Systems  QuikSCAT  v4  (actual  10m  wind)                              (atmospheric  fields  for  stability  adjustment  taken  from  JRA55  surface  analysis) Red:  JRA55  surface  analysis  (actual  10m  wind)  Green:  Blend  of  RSS-­‐QuikSCAT  v4  and  JRA55  surface  analysis  (actual  10m  wind)                              (this  is  used  as  a  reference  to  adjust  JRA55  forecast  fields)  

v0.2

v0.3

•  SeaWinds  on  QuikSCAT  Level  3  Daily  Gridded  Ocean  Wind  Vectors  (JPL  Version  2)  •  Gaps  of  QuikSCAT  (due  to  rain,  sea  ice,  and  near  the  coast)  are  not  filled.  No  

adjustment  around  gaps  •  QuikSCAT  provides  “equivalent  neutral”  10m  wind.  This  was  used  to  adjust  

“actual”  10  m  wind  of  JRA-­‐55,  which  was  not  appropriate.

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In  v0.3,  first  of  all,  zonal  1-­‐2-­‐1  filter  is  applied  to  unadjusted  data  before  determining  the  adjustment  factor

-­‐  This  is  to  remove  grid  noises  in  the  lee  of  the  Andes  (become  evident  in  wind  stress  curl)

Wind  stress  curl  from  a  10  km  resolu,on  OGCM    (provided  by  H.  Nakano)

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In  v0.3,  full  period  of  QuikSCAT  (Aug1999-­‐Oct2009)  is  used  to  make  monthly  adjustment  factors.  The  monthly  factors  are  applied  for  the  en,re  data  set  period.  (Constant  factor  was  used  for  v0.2.)

•  Wind  speed  adjustment  is  based  on  monthly  climatology    •  Wind  angle  adjustment  is  based  on  CEOF  analysis  on  ,me  series,  using  

10  or  11  data  for  each  month.  If  the  first  mode  (the  co-­‐varying  mode)  does  not  account  for  more  than  95%  of  total  variance  (energy),  adjustment  angle  is  set  to  zero  

 •  We  need  to  check  later  whether  the  monthly  factors  work  well  or  not  

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Rota,ng    factor Mul,plica,ve  factor(*) v0.2  (,me-­‐invariant)

v0.3  (annual  mean  of  monthly  factors)    (blend  of  QSCAT  and  JRA55-­‐anl_surf)

(*)  General  reduc,on  of  wind  speed  factor  in  v0.3  is  due  to  the  shie  of  QuikSCAT  wind  to  “actual  wind”  from  “equivalent  10  m  neutral  wind”  

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4.  ValidaBon  

•  Interannual  variability  of  surface  fluxes  and  relevant  variables                (1)  There  are  less  variability  in  JRA-­‐55  heat  fluxes  than  CORE                                    Discussed  later  in  this  talk                (2)  Increase  of  JRA-­‐55’s  LHF  aeer  mid-­‐1990s  and  later                                    Discussed  with  S.  Josey@NOC  over  Skype  this  evening  

•  Comparison  with  buoy  observa,ons                    Presented  by  H.  Tomita  (next  presenta#on)  

•  Is  JRA55’s  wind  field  in  favor  of  coastal  upwelling?                  Presented  by  J.  Small  (later  today)  

•  Global  heat  /  fresh  water  balance                  Next  slide  

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Green:  CORE,  Red:  JRA55v0.1  Grey:  JRA55v0.2,  Blue:  JRA55v0.3  

SW LW LAT SEN Total%

CORE 165.5 -­‐53.3 -­‐95.2* -­‐14.4 2.6

LY09 165 -­‐53 -­‐96 -­‐14 2

JRA55v0.0 171.5 -­‐54.0 -­‐112.0 -­‐18.4 -­‐12.8

JRA55v0.1 169.9 -­‐53.7 -­‐102.6 -­‐17.6 -­‐4.0

JRA55v0.2 164.7 -­‐54.7 -­‐93.7 -­‐14.4 1.9

JRA55v0.3 164.4 -­‐57.1 -­‐92.0 -­‐13.2 2.1

Global  mean  over  23  yrs  (1984-­‐2006)

Surface  heat  flux  averaged  over  the  ice-­‐free  ocean  

(%)  Except  for  the  four  main  components,      about  2  W/m2  will  be  lost  owing  to  sea  ice        processes  and  temperature  difference  between      precipita,on  and  evapora,on  (*)  Because  of  the  use  of  temperature-­‐dependent        latent  heat  of  vaporiza,on,  the  latent  heat  loss  will  be  reduced  compared  to  LY09  

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Green:  CORE  Red:  JRA55v0.1  Grey:  JRA55v0.2  Blue:  JRA55v0.3  

Evap Precip residual CORE -­‐14.2 13.0 -­‐1.2

LY09  (tab3) -­‐14.0 12.8 -­‐1.2

JRA55v0.0 -­‐16.2 15.4 -­‐0.8

JRA55v0.1 -­‐15.3 15.4 -­‐0.1

JRA55v0.2 -­‐14.0 12.9 -­‐1.1

JRA55v0.3 -­‐13.7 12.6 -­‐1.2

Global  mean  over  23  yrs  (1984-­‐2006)

Units:  Sv  =  109  kg  s-­‐1

Surface  fresh  water  flux  integrated  over  the  ocean  

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Ques,ons  on  interannual  variability:  (1)  There  are  less  variability  in  JRA-­‐55  heat  fluxes  than  CORE  

Green:  CORE  +  COBESST  (daily)  Blue:  JRA55v0.3  +  COBESST  (daily)    Orange:  JRA55v0.3  +  Hurrell  SST  data  set  (monthly)  

Sensible  heat  flux  gets  more  variable  when  Hurrell  SST  is  used  

 (but  s,ll  smaller  than  CORE)  

 -­‐  Another  SST  data  set  is  applied  to  JRA55v0.3  -­‐  

JRA55  air  temperature  tends  to  follow  SST  more  closely  than  CORE

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•  Downward  long  wave  is  more  variable  for  CORE  (or  ISCCP,  green  solid)    •  Downward  and  Upward  long  wave  co-­‐vary  in  JRA55  (blue),  downward  

long  wave  of  JRA55  might  be  more  sensi,ve  to  SST  or  surface  air  temperature  

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5.  Plan  for  version  1  Two  addi#onal  changes  are  planned  for  v0.3 •  We  prefer  version  0.4,  where  extremely  low  temperatures  

around  Antarc,ca  are  cut  off.              -­‐  Details  presented  by  S.  Urakawa  using  MRI  model  later              -­‐  With  this  choice,  global  adjustment  factors  for                    radia,on  and  precipita,on  must  be  revised    •  We  will  return  to  temporarily  constant  instead  of  

monthly  adjustment  factor  for  wind  speed  and  direc,on                -­‐  Explained  using  following  slides

Schedule •  Data  produc,on  for  the  surface  atmospheric  states  including  

the  above  changes  will  be  completed  by  mid-­‐February  2016  •  River  run-­‐off  produc,on  schedule  TBD  •  Method  of  normal  (repeat)  year  forcing  TBD                  (Idea  will  be  briefly  presented  by  S.  Yeager)  

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v0.3:  Adjusted  by  monthly  mean  

factors  

Adjusted  by  annual  mean  

factor    (test  version)

Risien  and  Chelton  (2008)  (Monthly  climatology  of  

QuikSCAT)

Wind  stress  curl  (nov1999-­‐oct2009)

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v0.3:  Adjusted  by  monthly  mean  

factors  

Adjusted  by  annual  mean  

factors  

Sverdrup  transport  stream  func,on  (jan2000-­‐dec2009)

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Thank  you  for  your  aben#on!

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Supplementary  slides

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Proposal  of  JRA-­‐55  based  surface  atmospheric  data  set  for  driving  Ocean-­‐Sea  ice  models

•  All  surface  atmospheric  state  variables  needed  to  drive  ocean-­‐sea  ice  models  are  taken  from  JRA-­‐55  

•  Pre-­‐determined  (climatological)  adjustment  factors  are  applied  to  the  surface  state  variables  

•  River  discharge  to  the  ocean  is  computed  by  running  a  global  river  model  using  water  runoff  from  land  to  river  provided  by  JRA-­‐55  

 •  Data  sets  will  be  updated  near-­‐real  ,me  as  long  as  JRA-­‐55  con,nues  

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More  on  the  background

•  This  idea  was  presented  in  “Forcing  mini-­‐workshop”  at  Grenoble  in  Jan2015.                    Par,cipants  were  suppor,ve.  OMDP-­‐JRA55  collabora,on  started    •  Adjustment  method  and  features  of  interannual  variability  are  examined  

during  2015  so  that  the  data  set  deserves  wide  use  

•  Japanese  ac,vity  is  supported  by  a  research  grant  from  JSPS  (fy2015-­‐2018)    

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Why  do  we  not  use  JRA55  surface  analysis?  

-­‐  By  using  forecast  field  for  all  elements,  all  fields  are  consistent  one  another  (slightly  contaminated  by  the  adjustment)  

-­‐  JRA55  surface  analysis  is  every  6  hours,  while  forecast  fields  are  provided  every  3  hours  

-­‐  In  the  difference  between  JRA55  forecast  and  analysis,  point  sources  and  their  spa,al  spreads  are  iden,fied.  They  are  contained  in  the  2D-­‐OI  fields  of  JRA-­‐55  surface  analysis    

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•  In  version  0.3,  full  period  of  QuikSCAT  (Aug1999-­‐Oct2009)  is  used  to  make  monthly  adjustment  factors.  The  monthly  factors  is  applied  for  the  en,re  data  set  period.  (Constant  factors  are  computed  for  v0.2.) -­‐  Wind  speed  adjustment  is  based  on  monthly  climatology  -­‐  Wind  angle  adjustment  is  based  on  CEOF  analysis  on  ,me  series,  using  

10  or  11  data  for  each  month.  If  the  first  mode  does  not  account  for  more  than  95%  of  total  energy,  adjustment  angle  is  set  to  zero  

-­‐  We  need  to  check  whether  the  monthly  factors  work  well  or  not  later  

𝑤↓𝐽 = 𝑢↓𝐽 +𝑖𝑣↓𝐽  𝑤↓𝑄 = 𝑢↓𝑄 +𝑖𝑣↓𝑄 

𝑊=[█■𝑤↓𝐽 (Aug1999)&𝑤↓𝑄 (Aug1999)@⋮&⋮@𝑤↓𝐽 (Aug2009)&𝑤↓𝑄 (Aug2009) ]

𝑅= 𝑊↑∗ 𝑊,  𝑅:(2×2),  𝑅= 𝑅↑∗ 

Eigen  vectors  of  R  are  CEOF  modes:    (1)  co-­‐varying  (correlated)  mode  (2)  mode  orthogonal  to  co-­‐varying  mode

Correc,on  angle  =  angle  between  the  elements  (vectors)          of  the  co-­‐varying  mode

JRA55  wind

QuikSCAT  wind

Merit:  No  special  treatment  is  needed  in  low  wind  regions  such  as  the  transi,on  between  easterly  and  westerly

Covariance  matrix

•  Use  of  CEOF  analysis  to  compute  wind  angle  adjustment  factor

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Climate  indices  based  on  SLP  green:CORE(NCEP/NCAR  Reanalysis),    red:JRA55-­‐v0.1

AO

NPI

SOI

AAOI

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Mul,plica,ve  correc,on  factor  in  per  cent    needed  for  the  CERES  downward  SW  to  be  adjusted  toward  buoys  

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Mul,plica,ve  factor  for  specific  humidity  a\er  the  temperature  adjustment  (annual  mean  of  monthly  factors)

v0.2:  based  on  CORE v0.3:  based  on  JRA55  anl_surf

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Comparison  of  zonal  mean  wind  speed  

Blue  line:  JRA55  v0.3  (adjusted)  Red  line:  JRA55  v0.1  (unadjusted)          (wind  vector  is  interpolated  on  1x1  la|ce  “before”  calcula,ng  scalar  wind  speed)  Green  line:  CORE  Light  blue  open  circles:  Blend  of  RSS-­‐QuikSCAT  v4  and  JRA55  surface  analysis          (this  is  used  as  a  reference  to  adjust  JRA55v0.1  toward  JRA55v0.3)  

Actual  10  m  wind Neutral  10  m  wind

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Amplitude  of  interannual  variability  of  wind  is  comparable  between  CORE  

and  JRA55  

Amplitude  of  long-­‐term  varia,on  of  “dq”  is  greater  for  CORE  than  JRA55    (interannual  variability  is  comparable)

JRA55  air  temperature  tends  to  follow  SST  more  closely  than  CORE

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Yu  (2007)    OAflux  global  average

Green:  CORE,  Blue:  JRA55v0.3  

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Ques,ons  on  interannual  variability  (2)  Reason  for  the  increase  of    JRA-­‐55’s  LHF  aeer  mid-­‐1990s  and  later

CORE,  JRA55-­‐v0.3,  OAflux

Latent  heat  flux  

Qsat(0m)  minus  Q(10m)  

10  m  wind  speed  

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CORE,  JRA55-­‐v0.3,  OAflux

Specific  humidity  

2  m  specific  humidity  JRA55v0.3  minus  OAflux

Dashed  line:  2m  

Solid  line:  10m

VTPR TOVS AMSU-­‐B SSM/I

AMSU-­‐B SSM/I

Time-­‐height  cross  sec,ons  for  the  12-­‐month  running  mean  of  the  global  mean  specific  humidity  increments  (Kobayashi  et  al.  2015)

•  Atmospheric  model  used  by  JRA-­‐55  has  posi,ve  (moist)  bias  of  surface  specific  humidity  

•  As  the  observa,ons  become  abundant,  this  moist  bias  is  corrected  globally  (global  reduc,on  of  surface  moisture).  This  results  in  the  larger  latent  heat  loss  in  recent  decades.

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SSH  from  the  10  km  MRI.COM  simula,on    (courtesy  H.  Nakano)

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v0.1  and  v0.2  are  available  from  a  server  at  LLNL  (courtesy  Paul  Durack)    -­‐  JRA55_v0.1:  <ep://gdo151.ucllnl.org/pub/JRA55_v0.1/>                    (Corrected  downward  short  wave  data  is  available  from                        hWp://amaterasu.ees.hokudai.ac.jp/~tsujino/JRA55_v0.1.01/    courtesy  Hokkaido  Univ.)    -­‐  JRA55_v0.2:  ep://gdo151.ucllnl.org/pub/JRA55_v0.2/  

v0.3  and  v0.4  are  available  from  Hokkaido  University  (courtesy  Hokkaido  Univ.)  -­‐  JRA55_v0.3:  hWp://amaterasu.ees.hokudai.ac.jp/~tsujino/JRA55_v0.3/  -­‐  JRA55_v0.4:  hWp://amaterasu.ees.hokudai.ac.jp/~tsujino/JRA55_v0.4/    

Note:  Official  version  1.0  and  1.1  will  be  released  soon  (Above  version  will  soon  be  obsolete).                          Or  publica,on  of  the  technical  document  should  come  first  before  the  release?

Access  to  the  data  set