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JPMorgan Russian Securities plc Annual General Meeting 2 nd March 2020 Oleg Biryulyov, Portfolio Manager Habib Saikaly, Portfolio Manager

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Page 1: JPMorgan Russian Securities plc Annual General Meeting Presen… · JPMorgan Russian Securities plc Annual General Meeting 2 nd March 2020 Oleg Biryulyov, Portfolio Manager. Habib

JPMorgan Russian Securities plcAnnual General Meeting2nd March 2020

Oleg Biryulyov, Portfolio Manager

Habib Saikaly, Portfolio Manager

Page 2: JPMorgan Russian Securities plc Annual General Meeting Presen… · JPMorgan Russian Securities plc Annual General Meeting 2 nd March 2020 Oleg Biryulyov, Portfolio Manager. Habib

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Financial year12 months ending 31st October 2019

Financial year12 months ending 31st October 2018

Total returns for 12 months ending 31st October 2019

Benchmark1 +32.5 +10.6

Return on net assets2 +31.7 +12.1

Return to shareholders3 +45.4 +6.9

Net asset value, share price and discount at 31st October 2019

Net asset value per share 780.8p 617.6p

Share price 694.0p 500.0p

Share price discount to net asset value per share 11.1% 19.0%

Dividends per share 35.0p 26.0p

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results..1. Source: MSCI. The benchmark is the RTS Index in sterling terms (RTS)2. Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, using cum income net asset value per share3. Source: MorningstarBenchmark History – 15 Sept 1994 to 31 Oct 2006 = CSFB ROS Index (CAP). 01 Nov 2006 to 01 Nov 2016 = MSCI Russia 10/40. 01 Nov 2016 to current = RTS Index in sterling terms (RTS).© 2017 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved.

JPMorgan Russian Securities plcSummary of results as of 31st October 2019

Page 3: JPMorgan Russian Securities plc Annual General Meeting Presen… · JPMorgan Russian Securities plc Annual General Meeting 2 nd March 2020 Oleg Biryulyov, Portfolio Manager. Habib

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Longterm PerformanceJPMorgan Russian Securities plc as of 31st December 2019

Annualised performance (%)

Calendar year performance (%)

Three months

Sixmonths

One Year

Three years

Fiveyears

Seven years

Tenyears

JPMorgan Russian Securities plc 8.54 11.08 45.29 14.91 26.34 9.04 7.42

RTS Index 10.73 13.36 49.32 14.10 25.31 8.78 7.24

Excess return -1.98 -2.01 -2.69 0.71 0.82 0.23 0.17

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017 2018 2019

JPMorgan Russian Securities plc 152.97 45.65 -32.01 12.74 5.14 -45.87 16.89 81.49 -0.21 4.67 45.29

RTS Index 116.29 32.70 -23.09 9.34 -3.66 -39.45 13.36 83.51 -4.15 3.54 49.32

Excess return 16.96 9.76 -11.59 3.11 9.14 -10.60 3.12 -1.10 4.11 1.08 -2.69

Market value

JPMorgan Russian Securities plc GBP 381m

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. MSCI. Performance data has been calculated on a NAV Offer of fees basis in GBP. NAV is the cum income NAV with debt at fair value, diluted for treasury and/or subscription shares if applicable, with any income reinvested. The benchmark is for comparative purposes only. Excess return is calculated geometrically. Performance less than 1 year is not annualised. Inception Investment Trust: September 1994. *1 November 2016 benchmark changed to RTS Index

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.

Page 4: JPMorgan Russian Securities plc Annual General Meeting Presen… · JPMorgan Russian Securities plc Annual General Meeting 2 nd March 2020 Oleg Biryulyov, Portfolio Manager. Habib

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Performance summary JPMorgan Russian Securities plc

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Source: J P. Morgan Asset Management as of February 2020Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends are based on market conditions at the date of the publication, constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met.

The health of the broader global economy dominated minds over the year to 31st October 2019, with a marked economic slowdown and ongoing political and geopolitical upheaval creating an uncertain environment for investors.

In Russia, the economy still grew but at a slower pace, with oil prices, so pivotal to the fortunes of the Russian economy, trended lower.

Russian stock market valuations defied expectations, outperforming their emerging market peers by a considerable margin.

Returns were amongst the biggest anywhere in the world, with high and increasing dividend yields a real attraction for investors seeking higher-paying assets.

Our robust stock selection process enabled us to deliver positive returns to shareholders over the period.

.

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Performance attribution

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Factset. (o) = overweight, (u) = underweight, (n) = neutral. Data is gross of fees in GBP. Data for total attribution shown (stock selection plus country). Attribution results are for indicative purposes only. The portfolio is actively managed. Holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable, are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice. 1 Not in Benchmark

JPMorgan Russian Securities plcfor 1 year ending 31 October 2019

Top contributors Relative weight (%)

Stock return (%)

Impact (%)

Tatneft -0.30 47.89 1.60

Magnit -2.58 -2.00 0.97

Sberbank Russia -2.63 42.08 0.80

Norilsk Nickel 1.60 80.64 0.73

Polyus 1.21 97.73 0.65

Top detractors Relative weight (%)

Stock return (%)

Impact (%)

Surgutneftegas -3.49 6.47 -0.99

TBC Bank Group1 0.92 -15.19 -0.80

Novatek 1.92 27.25 -0.77

MD Medical Group Invts1 1.12 -15.81 -0.69

Global Truck Management1 0.42 -57.21 -0.61

Attribution summary Stock: 0.05Sector: 0.06

Benchmark RTS IdxWgt

Sector attribution (%)

2.390.74

0.250.22

0.160.12

-0.58-0.63-0.65-0.69-0.77

-0.46

-3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00

Materials (o)Consumer Staples (u)

Communication Services (u)Utilities (u)

Information Technology (o)Financials (u)

Energy (n)Industrials (n)

Real Estate (o)Health Care (o)

Consumer Discretionary (o)Cash

Stock selection Asset allocation

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The Macro environment is improvingThe Ruble (RUB) will likely respond to the oil price, but there are no significant imbalances

Currency valuation and support

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates. Data as of November 2019. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends are based on market conditions at the date of the publication, constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met. GSDEER (Goldman Sachs dynamic equilibrium exchange rate) relative to fair value on the x

axis and policy rate on the y axis. CARRY (a currency with a high Interest Rate) Countries over the line of best fit provide good carry for their currency valuation Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Factset. Data as of November 2019

External debt as % of GDP

Current account % of GDP

020406080

-6-4-20246

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20

1-year real carry

GSDEER valuation

Undervaluation

CZK

HUFILS

PLN

RUBZAR

TRY

BRL

CLP

MXN

CNY

HKD

INR IDR

KRW

MYR

PHP

SGD

TWD

THBCOP PEN

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What does Russia look like today?

Image from Shutterstock

Economy

Interest rates

Inflation

Politics and sanctions

Corporate culture – earnings and dividends

An improving backdrop

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Where can you find yield? Payout ratio by sector – Russia v Emerging Markets

Russia 12month forward Price Earnings Russia 12month forward dividend yield

Yield >6% 7% 8% 9% 10%MSCI EMEA - market Cap 324 137 52 49 49# of stocks 47 26 15 12 12% of market cap 35.7% 15.1% 5.7% 5.4% 5.4%Russia - Market Cap 211 89 33 33 33# of stocks 16 8 5 5 5% of market cap 83.5% 35.4% 12.9% 12.9% 12.9%EMEA ex Russia 113 47 19 16 16 # of stocks 31 18 10 7 7% of market cap 17.3% 7.2% 2.9% 2.5% 2.5%

54% 50% 49%

83%

117%

76%

39%45%

38%47%

37%

52%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%110%120%130%

Market Energy Financials Materials Telecoms StaplesRussia - Payout Ratio (12m fwd) EM

4556677889

Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20

12m fwd PE Average +1sd -1sd

1.5

3.5

5.5

7.5

9.5

11.5

Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20

12m fwd DY Avg Russia +1sd -1sd

%

Rising dividends adds to the story of attractiveness

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Bloomberg. Data as of January 2020. EM = Emerging Markets

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future performance

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Top 10 holdings Portfolio weight (%)

Gazprom 15.4

Lukoil 15.4

Sberbank 13.9

Norilsk Nickel 9.0

Tatneft Pjsc 7.2

Rosneft Oil Co 6.8

Yandex 5.2

Novatek 4.2

Polymetal 2.8

Polyus 2.5

Portfolio positions

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The investment trust is actively managed. Holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable, are subject to change at the discretion of the manager without notice.

JPMorgan Russian Securities plc as of 31 December 2019

Top 5 overweights Portfolio weight (%)

Relative position (%)

Tatneft Pjsc 7.2 2.4

Rosneft Oil Co 6.8 2.4

Norilsk Nickel 9.0 2.4

Gazprom Neft Pjsc 1.9 1.9

TCS 1.8 1.8

Top 5 underweights Portfolio weight (%)

Relative position (%)

Surgutneftegas Pjs 0.0 -5.1

Mts Pjsc 0.0 -2.4

Magnit 0.0 -2.1

X5 Retail 0.0 -2.0

Sberbank 13.9 -1.8

Benchmark RTS IdxWgt

Page 10: JPMorgan Russian Securities plc Annual General Meeting Presen… · JPMorgan Russian Securities plc Annual General Meeting 2 nd March 2020 Oleg Biryulyov, Portfolio Manager. Habib

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Gazprom: what’s next

Image from Shutterstock. The securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell.

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Magnit: still a fallen angel

Image from Shutterstock. The securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell.

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Portfolio positions

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The investment trust is actively managed. Holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable, are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice.

JPMorgan Russian Securities plcas of 31 January 2020

2.9 2.82.3

1.71.2 0.9

0.2

-1.7

-2.6

-0.1

-2.5-3.0

-3.7

1.2

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

InformationTechnology

Energy Materials RealEstate

ConsumerDiscretionary

HealthCare

Industrials Utilities Financials DiversifiedFinancials

Banks CommunicationServices

ConsumerStaples

Cash

Active and absolute sector positions

Portfolio Weight (%) 2.9 48.7 18.7 2.0 1.9 0.9 0.6 1.2 15.7 1.1 14.6 5.4 0.8 1.2

Benchmark RTS IdxWgt

Relative to benchmark (%)

Page 13: JPMorgan Russian Securities plc Annual General Meeting Presen… · JPMorgan Russian Securities plc Annual General Meeting 2 nd March 2020 Oleg Biryulyov, Portfolio Manager. Habib

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In summary

■ We believe the fundamentals for investing in Russia remain attractive for those investors prepared to take the risk

■ The risks of slowing global growth, trade tensions and a stubbornly strong US dollar are lingering concerns, but central banks may be able to offset these risks with further interest rate cuts, which have gathered pace in Russia and around the world in 2019

■ We expect firmer oil prices in 2020, driven by production cuts and politics, which will be positive for the earnings of Russian companies

■ The environment around sanctions remaining fluid, and we will continue to monitor the situation

■ Given the continuing low level of interest rates in most major economies, the level of dividend payouts by Russian companies should continue to attract investors

■ We are optimistic that the market, and our portfolio in particular, should be resilient.

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data as of March 2019. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends are based on market conditions at the date of thepublication, constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met.

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Investment objective and risk profile

Please refer to the Investor Disclosure Document, latest annual report, and Key Information Document (KID) for more information relating to the Company.

JPMorgan Russian Securities plc

Risk profile■ Exchange rate changes may cause the value of underlying overseas investments to go down as well as up.

■ Investments in emerging markets may involve a higher element of risk due to political and economic instability and underdeveloped markets and systems. Shares may also be traded less frequently than those on established markets. This means that there may be difficulty in both buying and selling shares and individual share prices may be subject to short-term price fluctuations.

■ The Company typically invests in a concentrated portfolio of investments and should a particular investment decline in value, this will have a pronounced effect on the overall value of the Company.

■ External factors may cause an entire asset class to decline in value. Prices and values of all shares or all bonds could decline at the same time, or fluctuate in response to the performance of individual companies and general market conditions.

■ This Company may utilise gearing (borrowing) which will exaggerate market movements both up and down.

■ This Company may also invest in smaller companies which may increase its risk profile.

■ The share price may trade at a discount to the Net Asset Value of the Company.

■ The single market in which the Company primarily invests, in this case Russia, may be subject to particular political and economic risks and, as a result, the Company may be more volatile than more broadly diversified companies.

Investment objectiveTo maximise total return to shareholders from a diversified portfolio of investments primarily in quoted Russian securities

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Important information

This is a marketing communication and as such the views contained herein do not form part of an offer, nor are they to be taken as advice or a recommendation, to buy or sell any investment or interest thereto. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Any research in this document has been obtained and may have been acted upon by J.P. Morgan Asset Management for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available as additional information and do not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, statements of financial market trends or investment techniques and strategies expressed are unless otherwise stated, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s own at the date of this document. They are considered to be reliable at the time of writing, may not necessarily be all inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. They may be subject to change without reference or notification to you. It should be noted that the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of the products or underlying overseas investments. Past performance and yield are not reliable indicators of current and future results. There is no guarantee that any forecast made will come to pass. Furthermore, whilst it is the intention to achieve the investment objective of the investment products, there can be no assurance that those objectives will be met. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide. To the extent permitted by applicable law, we may record telephone calls and monitor electronic communications to comply with our legal and regulatory obligations and internal policies. Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our EMEA Privacy Policy www.jpmorgan.com/emea-privacy-policy. Investment is subject to documentation. The Investor Disclosure Document, Key Features and Terms and Conditions and Key Information Document can be obtained free of charge from JPMorgan Funds Limited or www.jpmam.co.uk/investmenttrust.

This communication is issued by JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited, which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England No: 01161446. Registered address: 25 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP.

0903c02a82825be1

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JPMorgan Russian Securities plcAnnual General Meeting 2nd March 2020

The Chairman’s Introduction - Highlights for the Year ended 31st October 2019

45.4% total return to shareholders, arising from a combination of strong market and dividend performances

Dividend of 35 pence per share, an increase of 34.6% on the previous year

Board Succession - Appointment of Ashley Dunster and Nicholas Pink

Strategic Review of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)

Increased Focus on Sales & Marketing

.