JPCapitalPerspectiveiseverything

September 9, 2015

Equity Equities recovered their early week loses to stage a late rally. The S&P 500 up 0.5%. Fixed Income Bond yields rose slightly with the benchmark US Treasury rising from 2.04% to 2.18%. Prices, which move inversely with yields, declined. Currencies Russian Ruble is on the look this week, it is getting crushed due to oil prices. Commodities This week, we are having a look at how oil is affecting Russia. Gold is slowly going back down now that Equities are looking brighter.

Market roundup

Source: Bloomberg, Spot returns. All data as of last Friday’s close. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns

EquitiesTotal Return in USD (%)

Level WTD MTD YTD

DJIA 16,643.0 -3.2 -2.5 -8.1Nasdaq 4,828.3 -3.0 -1.9 -0.3S&P 500 1,988.9 -3.4 -2.5 -5.4MSCI World 1,658.1 -3.7 -3 -5.4

Fixed IncomeTotal Return in USD (%)

Yield WTD MTD YTD

U.S. 10- Year Treasury 2.12 0.6 0.7 1.6U.S. Corporate Master 3.41 0.4 0.5 -0.1

ML High Yield 7.32 0.3 0.2 0.2Commodities & Currencies

Total Return in USD (%)Level WTD MTD YTD

Gold Spot 1,123.5 -0.9 -1.0 -5.2WTI Crude $/Barrel 46.1 1.8 -6.4 -13.6

Current Prior Week End Prior Month End 2014 Year End EUR/USD 1.11 1.12 1.12 1.21USD/JPY 119.0 121.7 121.2 119.8

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EQUITIES

Riding out the storm

1

Sit tight Despite the recent correction, equities still looks well placed to benefit over the coming months. We hold this view based on some key factors. The U.S consumer contributes around 70% of economic growth to the American economy. History has shown (albeit is no definite guide to the future), that a $30 fall in oil roughly shifts $1 trillion from producers to consumers. Logically, a $60 dollar fall, which is what we’ve seen, leads to $2 trillion. That’s a considerable tailwind and as an effective stimulus, is larger than any government rescue package measure in recent years. Rising home prices, falling unemployment, increasing wage growth and falling energy prices will all support equities over the medium term. As the labour market tightens and full employment edges closer, the Fed will be forced to raise rates, if not to have the ability to act in the next downturn.

2

Volatility in the near term will be a key feature and from an optimistic viewpoint, creates greater opportunities to pick up a few bargains. One key worry to watch out for in coming weeks is the FOMC decision on the 17th September and the U.S budget talks. Bear in mind the U.S has not had an active budget for five years. When we talk about the Fed being the only game in town, this is a case in point. Politicians are paralysed, which is why markets are watching the Fed intently trying to front run and reposition themselves before the decision is known. Health care and technology, sectors poised to benefit from some underlying structural themes, have been in our view unfairly punished by the recent volatility. That said, if one is prepared to weather the storm and realise fundamentals have not significantly changed, certain sectors will fair well amid a tightening environment, namely financials and the cyclical sector, consumer discretionary.

Next- FX update: Oil market loses its three main anchors

Exhibit 1: Commodity slowdown weighs on energy sectors

Source: Bloomberg, As of August 20, 2015

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FX & COMMODITIES

Oil vs Russian Ruble A lot has been mentioned in the last few weeks about the Yuan devaluation, the fact that the Euro is now becoming an attractive and safe currency, and more importantly that the Euro/Dollar parity is now becoming less likely. However, there has not been a lot of talk about the Ruble. What is interesting with the Ruble is the degree of correlation with the price of oil. In the last 12 months, the oil price has dropped by a mere 55%, while the Ruble has depreciated by about 50% against the U.S dollar, and the Ruble index only about 34%. The likely explanation is that 50% of Russian GDP is generated from oil revenues; consequently, a 50% drop in oil prices is equivalent to a 25% drop in GDP. The Russian economy has been pushed into recession for the first time since 2009 and with oil prices not looking like they will climb back to their 2014 highs for a

while yet, we certainly would not encourage a long position in the Ruble at any point soon. Gold Events seem to be looking a fraction more stable with China, and I emphasise on the word ‘fraction’ here. What I mean by that is we are not experiencing as large daily drops as we did from the Shanghai Composite, relative to recent weeks. Gold is becoming less attractive and has declined by $40 in the last 2 weeks. We still expect the precious metal to close the year in $1130 region. Yen/USD The Yen stood just under the 122 barrier just over a week ago, however, with news that investors are withdrawing their money from the U.S in the last week, the Yen has gained amid negative sentiment and is now just under the 120 barrier against the USD.

Oil plays Russian roulette

Next- Bond update: Draghi talks Euro lower

Exhibit 2: Russian ruble collapses with oil price

Source: Bloomberg data

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USD/ RUB (RHS) Brent Oil (LHS)

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FIXED INCOME

Jawbone “We will do whatever it takes, and believe me, it will be enough”, were the words of the ECB President Mario Draghi in his London speech back in 2012. Few people have the ability to talk markets lower without action. In economic theory, if the central bank commits to an objective, but then reneges on its promise, this ‘fooling’ mechanism causes markets to realign, adjusting to the paradigm. Clearly, fooling the market continuously leads to distrust for future promises, yet super Mario has the magic touch few posses. With the Chinese currency move and the subsequent turmoil it has caused on emerging nations, the European situation has been forgotten. The resignation of the Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, has sparked renewed uncertainty over the future of future bailouts agreements. . Bund yields have been on the decline since 1970 and have dropped to the lowest levels not since in the past 200 years (see Exhibit 4). The oil shock of 1973 spiked rates to circa 10% but has fallen ever since. In many respects, the decline is symptomatic of the European project itself, with most countries being worse off since joining the common market. To this day, the four pillars of a full union are still not fully intact. In the summer of this year we did see a minor yet dramatic reversal in bund yields, where the benchmark 10 year rose by circa 80 basis points from near 0% to just under 1%. The move was caused by some key factors. Initially, growth and inflation expectations for the Euro Area increased, yet in hindsight, were maybe premature due to softer PMI figures and the subsequent devaluation of the Chinese Yuan. Moreover, issuance outpaced demand sending prices lower and yields higher. Finally, albeit not the final reason, was that the negative shorter dated yields became eligible for purchase, shifting demand towards the lower end of the bund curve. We see rates maintaining these lower levels in the medium term, as growth is unlikely to be blockbuster in the near term.

Exhibit 4: German Bund Yields since 1807

Super Mario eases concerns

Source: BoAML Research

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JPCapitalPerspectiveiseverything

Jonathan Taubert FX and Commodities

Pete McCarthy Equities and Fixed Income

JP Capital Team

Going forward Equities tend to show greater volatility in low interest rates environments. On the flipside, the current bull market, up until now, did not show signs of faltering. It was only the Yuan move that sparked the sudden panic and the subsequent emerging market currency devaluations and stock market selling. The longer rates stay at the effective zero level, the greater chance there is of business models running into difficulties. It’s therefore not a question of how much lower can we go to inject economic resilience, but how long can we continue to be in emergency conditions, when unemployment in the U.S is 5% and oil prices have halved over the medium term. The former Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke outlined that when you go ‘unconventional’, you have to suffer the costs and risks as well as the benefits. The recent sell off has created opportunities in the major public markets and as the U.S continues to improve economically, the EUR/USD rate should track lower as the ECB maintains its loose monetary stance by expanding the share issue limit to 33%. Furthermore, the Euro as a funding currency may be called into question if the Greek situation gets messier in the next few months.