Journal of Strategic Intelligence

► Surprise! What Caused China’s Recent and Massive Land Reclamation in the South China Sea?

► South Korea’s Engagement Strategy: Indications of an Asian Imbalance?

► Legacy of an Exile: How al-Shabaab Was Inspired by and Learned From Usama bin Ladin

► Could Pakistan Lose Balochistan? Balochistan’s Insurgency and Its Implications for Pakistan and the Region

► The Demise of the Monroe Doctrine: Foreign Influence in Latin America

Featured Articles

Volume 1 Number 1Summer 2016

The Journal of Strategic Intelligence is an occasional journal of the College of Strategic Intelligence, National Intelligence University. Our purpose is to pub-lish scholarly research by U.S. intelligence analysts and security professionals that constitutes or contributes to strategic intelligence—that is, a comprehensive under-standing of current or emerging regional and transnational issues broadly that will significantly impact national security or interests. We seek insightful analysis that more rigorously captures the empirical complexity of these security-related issues, in their diverse causes, shaping factors, as well as the opportunities to contain them or shape them in our national interest. Some of the articles within this journal by NIU faculty members will highlight graduate student thesis research and the role this research plays in advancing the understanding of critical strategic intel-ligence issues.

The Journal of Strategic Intelligence seeks to fill a gap in the various related of-ficial and academic journals on strategic intelligence. This focus on strategic intel-ligence notwithstanding, we have made room in each issue for research related to intelligence improvement—in processes, organization, leadership, security-related education, and understanding of historical regional and transnational issues, to the extent they illuminate those of the present.

Distribution and Classification The Journal of Strategic Intelligence is an electronic journal (not typically

printed), and published in classified and unclassified editions. Unclassified ver-sions of the journal will be distributed via the University’s website at www.ni-u.edu and via e-mail lists to selected stakeholders. The Journal of Strategic Intel-ligence is registered with ISSN 2470-8658 (Print) and ISSN 2470-8666 (Online).

Contact and SubmissionsSend correspondence electronically via e-mail to the co-editors, Steve Park

and David Belt. Send unclassified e-mails to Steve.Park2@dodiis.mil and David.Belt@dodiis.mil. Include the Journal of Strategic Intelligence in the sub-ject line. Classified contact information for the co-editors can be furnished at re-quest. For prospective authors, the “Submission and Style Guide” for the Journal of Strategic Intelligence is available at National Intelligence University’s classified and unclassified websites.

DisclaimerThe views expressed in the articles and book reviews of this journal are solely

those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Depart-ment of Defense, or any of its components, or the U.S. Government. The articles are products of independent scholarly investigation and are not finished intelli-gence nor have they been coordinated with U.S. IC agencies.

About this Journal

Journal of Strategic Intelligence Summer 2016

1Journal of Strategic Intelligence Summer 2016

NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE UNIVERSITYWashington, D.C. 20340-5100

Office of the President June 15, 2016

Dear Reader:

Welcome to the inaugural issue of the Journal of Strategic Intelligence. This journal is an effort by the National Intelligence University to contribute to the discussion of significant strategic intelligence issues facing our nation. The peer-reviewed articles and scholarly research will offer thought-provoking perspectives and analysis on contemporary and emerging strategic intelligence challenges.

While this first issue includes works exclusively from faculty members and students of the University’s College of Strategic Intelligence, I would like to extend an invitation to other intelligence analysts and security professionals interested in strategic intelligence to contribute to this journal.

I want to thank the contributing authors, blind reviewers, the university’s graphic artist, National Intelligence Press’s editorial staff, and the journal’s founding co-editors, whose leadership and efforts made this initiative a reality.

I hope you will continue to return to this journal for more insights on strategic intelligence issues that will challenge your thinking and facilitate a deeper understanding of the many complex issues we face in the global strategic environment.

Sincerely,

David R. EllisonRear Admiral, U.S. Navy (Retired), Ph.D.President

2 Journal of Strategic Intelligence Summer 2016

Regional Issues

Surprise! What Caused China’s Recent and Massive Land Reclamation in the South China Sea?By Wayne R. Hugar ............................................................................. 4

South Korea’s Engagement Strategy: Indications of an Asian Imbalance?By Steven D. Park .............................................................................. 37

Legacy of an Exile: How al-Shabaab Was Inspired by and Learned From Usama bin LadinBy Dr. Kris Inman .............................................................................. 55

Could Pakistan Lose Balochistan? Balochistan’s Insurgency and Its Implications for Pakistan and the RegionBy Jamison C. Heinkel and Richard deVillafranca ........................... 62

The Demise of the Monroe Doctrine: Foreign Influence in Latin America

By Dr. William C. Spracher ............................................................... 73

Intelligence Improvement

OSS Detachment 101 and Anti-Japanese Resistance Operations in Burma, 1942-1945

By James E. Dillard .......................................................................... 83

In This Issue

3Journal of Strategic Intelligence Summer 2016

In This Issue

Book Reviews

China’s New Governing Party Paradigm by Timothy R. HeathReviewed by Dr. Michael K. Metcalf ................................................. 96

The Triple Agent: The al-Qaeda Mole Who Infiltrated the CIA by Joby WarrickReviewed by CDR Youssef H. Aboul-Enein ..................................... 103

The Character of a Leader: A Handbook for the Young Leader by Donald AlexanderReviewed by Dr. Angela Pierce ........................................................ 106