josh sparber: effective measures can protect us natl power grid from emp

Thesis: Effective Measures Can Protect

the US National Power Grid from Naturally Occurring Electromagnetic Pulses

Presented By:

Josh Sparber

EPM 4902

August 9, 2015 Copyright

Joshua Sparber EPM 4902 [email protected] 1

(Dreamstime

2000–2015)

mailto:[email protected]


Copyright Joshua H. Sparber 8/11/15

What is a Naturally Occurring Electromagnetic Pulse?


Solar Flare (Dreamstime 2000–2015)

Lightning (APOD 2014b)

Coronal Mass Ejection (Astronomy Picture of the Day [APOD] 2014a)




What is a Naturally Occurring Electromagnetic Pulse?


Gamma Ray Bursts (Reddy 2012)



Copyright Joshua H. Sparber 8/11/15 Joshua Sparber EPM 4902 [email protected] 5

(Dreamstime 2000–2015)




EMP to USNG Risk: An Initial Qualitative Assessment


Sparber 2015

Notional Qualitative Likelihood/Consequence ratings of EMPs on Energy Resources

USNG Severable Grids

EMP Likelihood Consequence Likelihood Consequence

Lightning

Solar Flare

CME

GRB

Rating (average) 6.67 8.75 6.67 2.50

KEY Low Medium High

0 5 10

Rating

0—3.3 3.3—6.7 6.7—10




Approach: Risk Assessment and Mitigation. To the right is an example of an imaginary Risk Mitigation Plan


Risk Statement: If the USNG is not protected against GICs Then major power failures could occur. Likelihood is Moderate risk, Consequence is Moderate risk (L/C = M/M). In M/L, L means Low.

Risk Mitigation plan for power infrastructure against GICs Step Date Action L/C 1 Sept.

2015 Get buy–in from power authorities on need to update the grid for GICs. Derive system level requirements with help of stakeholders. Check with FERC and NERC guidelines for Reliability parameters.

M/M

2 Oct. 2015

Map out most vulnerable grid portions with ArcMap application. Apply geostatisical analysis to refine Likelihood and Consequence quantitatively.

M/M

3 Nov. 2015

Schedule future test date at Idaho National Labs (INL). M/M

4 Dec. 2015

a) Do preliminary design of protective circuit with HPCCET. b) Alternative step: If HPCCET is not suitable perform trade studies to find a

suitable substitute.

M/M

5 Feb. 2016

Prioritize architecture updates according to critical infrastructure first. Model and design the system architecture.

M/M

6 Mar. 2016

Pass Preliminary Design Review. M/M

7 Jul. 2016

Model and design system subelements. Do traceability studies of subelements functionality back up to the requirements.

M/M

8 Sept. 2016

Successfully trace all subelement specifications up to the requirements. Pass the Critical Design Review.

M/L

9 Nov. 2016

Pass all Test Readiness Reviews. M/L

10 Dec. 2016

a) Test and Evaluate (T&E) architecture with help of INL. b) Alternative step: if T&E is late and INL is not available, see if Sandia Labs

is available.

M/L

11 Feb. 2017

Develop and socialize a site installation plan with power providers. Do Installation and Checkout (INCO) on chosen sites.

L/L

12 Apr. 2017

Do Operational T&E in coordination with FERC and NERC authorities, and provide a follow up plan to them.

L/L




Mapping may have a unique role to play in Mitigation Planning. Geographic Information Science (GIS) can join and intersect several geographical properties together in an ‘Attribute Table’. 1) Top map: vector map of grid transmission by KVs. 2) Bottom map: raster map of lightning strikes based on a five year average. 3) In a combined mapping, GIS could join both Attribute Tables, then find the intersections of high lightning strike areas near high KV transmission lines. This could be the start of a more quantitative Risk Assessment. Geostatistical analysis could further break down the analysis with probabilistic risk weightings. of attributes.


(Energy.gov 2014)

(Vaisala 1996–2000)




The military may play a strong hand in test and evaluation of new architectures to mitigate risk. This is a map of their national test facilities.


(Reitenbach 2012)




Various structures to protect against lightning strikes.


(Indelec 2015)

Left: Early Streamer Device Right: Proper grounding system.

(Regan n.d.)




Successes of Risk Management.


Contributors: strong culture of risk management, including preparation strong vetting of risk plans, across all relevant stakeholders and supply chains, with strategic budgeting for risk honesty and leadership at the decision–maker level (Cooper 2009) (Kim 2013)

(Zimmer 2014)




Conclusion Create severable critical infrastructure, with renewables remaining powered Ongoing integration must be undertaken with a long range systems viewpoint Constant update of Risk and Mitigation Plans; strong attention to use of materials, updates in technology and strategic budgeting for risk


(Dreamstime 2000–2015)

Military heavily involved in test and evaluation of grid architectures Use of Smart Grid intelligence and enhanced sharing of built–in risk intelligence applications Use of multifunctional teams of experts that share expertise, including education, across public, private, military, and emergency domains Survivability considered as important a parameter as Reliability



josh sparber: effective measures can protect us natl power grid from emp

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