Josephine K Musango

ERC Colloquium31 July 2012

Introduction The goal of technology assessment is to generate policy

options for societal problems

Can technology, which has economic and societal benefits, also liberate the environment from human impact?

Can technology decouple goods and services from demands on planetary resources?

Can technology do the following to the economy?:o dematerializeo decarbonize

Are the net impacts of technology positive or negative?

Technology sustainability assessment..

Lack of clear criteria for conducting proper assessment

TA concept treated as universal – strongly tied with western world

TA has relatively poor disciplinary coordination and integration

Most TA do not take account of holistic view – static in nature

No formal TA practice to support energy policy formulation

TA focuses mainly on impacts or outcomes of the technology

Application of sustainability based criteria is not common in TA or decision-making

Technology sustainability assessment..

Who? o Scientists, industry, policy makers, NGO’S, Civil society…

Why? o “How can the contribution of technology development for

sustainability be improved?”

What? o Dialogues among the science, policy and development

communities

Need for change in social and institutional dimensions – user practices, regulations and industrial networks

Multiple and competing goals from social dimension

Differing perception about the technology being developed

SATSA framework

• Uncertain• Dynamic • Systemic• Cumulative

• Inherently dynamic process

• Societal worldviews and values

• Long term future orientation

• Multi-domain problems• Differential & difference• Time and time evolution

Methodological framework

STEP 1: Sustainable technology development

-Identify the need for energy technology development- Define the sustainability goals for energy technology development

STEP 2: System dynamics modeling

Model the domain of energy technology application

New energy technology assessment

Technology accommodation in the energy sector domain

BIOTSA model

Assess the impact of proposed biodiesel production development on selected

sustainability indicators in the Eastern Cape

Study area

Stakeholders in biodiesel production

CROP PRODUCTION(farming)e.g. canola, soybeans

ACTORS- Rural communities- Private farmers

BIODIESEL PRODUCTION

ACTORS-Private local investors- Private foreign investors- Government entities

BIODIESEL MARKET

- Export market- Local market- Animal feed- Other (chemicals)

Scope of BIOTSA model: crop production and biodiesel production

STEP 1: Identified needs for biodiesel production

Addressing rural poverty

Rural development and black economic empowerment

Job creation particularly in the feedstock production

STEP 1: Identified sustainability indicators Indicator Symbol Description Units

Eco

nom

ic

Biodiesel production ECO1 This measures the quantity of biodiesel production

Litre/year

Biodiesel profitability

ECO2 This measures the profitability from biodiesel production

Rand/year

Eastern Cape GDP ECO3 This measures the per capita GDP in the Eastern Cape Province

Rand/person/ year

Soc

ial

Employment SOC1 This measures the labour force participation due to the investment in the biodiesel plant capacity

Person

Community perception

SOC2 This is represented by the effect of community perception on land conversion for biodiesel production crops and measures the community acceptance to grow these crops

Dimensionless

Env

iron

men

tal

Land use change ENV1 This measure the changes in land use due to the introduction of biodiesel production. This includes changes in fallow land, agricultural land, biodiesel crop land and livestock land.

Ha

Air emission ENV2 This measures the total avoided air emissions due to investment in biodiesel production

kg CO2/year

Biodiesel by-product ENV3 This measures the amount of accumulated glycerol resulting from biodiesel production.

Litre/year

Water use ENV4 This measures water use as a result of biodiesel production

Litre/year

Energy use ENV5 This measures energy use as a result of biodiesel production

kWh/year

STEP 2: System dynamics modelling - BIOTSA

12

BIOTSA model divided into eleven sub-models that provide outputs for the sustainability indicators

Land

Water

Emissions

Electricity demand

Employment biodiesel plant

Biodiesel profitability

Cost of operation

GDP

Community perception

Biodiesel production

Population

Environmental

indicators Economic

indicators

Social indicators

Baseline results: economic indicators

400 M Litre/year

0 Rand/year20,000 Rand/person/year

200 M Litre/year-400 M Rand/year13,000 Rand/person/year

0 Litre/year-800 M Rand/year

6,000 Rand/person/year

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095Time (Year)

Biodiesel production : baseline Litre/yearBiodiesel profitability : baseline Rand/yearPC real GDP : baseline Rand/person/year

Baseline results: social indicators

400 Person0.4 Dmnl

200 Person0.2 Dmnl

0 Person0 Dmnl

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095Time (Year)

Employment biodiesel plant : baseline PersonPerception of biodiesel crops benefits : baseline Dmnl

Baseline results: environmental indicators (a) (b)

0100000200000300000400000500000600000700000800000900000

1000000

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Ha

Time (year)

Biodiesel crop land Fallow land Forest plantations

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Ha

Time (year)

Crop land Livestock Land Settlement land

0.00E+001.00E+082.00E+083.00E+084.00E+085.00E+086.00E+087.00E+088.00E+089.00E+081.00E+09

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Kg C

O2/

year

Time (year)

Net emission

Total air emission

Total avoided emission from biodiesel

40 M Litre/year400 M Litre/year

20 M KWh/year

20 M Litre/year200 M Litre/year

10 M KWh/year

0 Litre/year0 Litre/year0 KWh/year

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095Time (Year)

Glycerol produced : baseline Litre/yearBiodiesel plant water usage : baseline Litre/yearEnergy usage biodiesel production : baseline KWh/year

Scenario results: perception, support, by-product use

(C) (d)

(a) (b)

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Ha

Time (year)

Biodiesel crop land

PSBPS SBPS BPS BSS2 Baseline

0.00E+00

1.00E+08

2.00E+08

3.00E+08

4.00E+08

5.00E+08

6.00E+08

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Litr

e/ye

ar

Time (year)

Biodiesel production

PSBPS SBPS BPS BSS2 Baseline

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Pers

on

Time (year)

Employment biodiesel from plant

PSBPS SBPS BPS BSS2 Baseline

0.00E+00

1.00E+08

2.00E+08

3.00E+08

4.00E+08

5.00E+08

6.00E+08

7.00E+08

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Kg C

O 2/y

ear

Time (year)

Total avoided emissions from biodiesel

PSBPS SBPS BPS BSS2 Baseline

BIOTSA model limitationsLimitation Description

Biodiesel market Considers a biodiesel project aimed for export market but model limited to crop production and biodiesel production chain

Implicit farming activities Assumes community can easily alter fallow land to biofuel crop land as long as there is acceptance to convert the fallow land

Feedstock logistics Detailed level of feedstock logistics excluded; e.g. biomass collection, pre-processing, storage and transportation

Employment Only employment created in the biodiesel plant (direct employments) is accounted

BIOTSA value chain insightsCrop production Biodiesel production

Need to improve community perception of biodiesel crops benefits, which result from fear and previous bad experiences

Promoting local feedstock production

Focussing on non-food land for biodiesel crop production

Local job creation at biodiesel plant level

Using by-products as part of income generation outputs

Government support in the biodiesel production

Reducing feedstock costs by sourcing locally

Conclusion

SATSA serves as a framework for science to promote a transdisciplinary approach, hence linking science-policy-business and society divide

SATSA has a potential for application in other technology development

No single strategy is capable of improving performance of sustainability indicators

Way forward

Target technology assessment on societal problems prioritized by stakeholders

Integrate appropriate mixes of disciplines, expertise and public/private sector in support of such problem-driven R&D

Link expertise and application across scales, from local to global