Jordan Noonan

Andrew Lee

Eric Rodriguez

Mike Long

ThesisThesis

The IAEA and the nuclear non-The IAEA and the nuclear non-proliferation treaty represent steps in proliferation treaty represent steps in the right direction for global nuclear the right direction for global nuclear safeguards. These protections, safeguards. These protections, however, are outdated and ineffective however, are outdated and ineffective in preventing the proliferation of in preventing the proliferation of nuclear weaponry. We must overhaul nuclear weaponry. We must overhaul current anti-proliferation strategies in current anti-proliferation strategies in order to mitigate these security risks. order to mitigate these security risks.

The IAEAThe IAEA The International Atomic The International Atomic

Energy AgencyEnergy Agency

– Created in 1957, as the Created in 1957, as the “Atoms for Peace” “Atoms for Peace” organization, within the organization, within the UN.UN.

3 Main Pillars: (Oversee 3 Main Pillars: (Oversee Compliance with NPT)Compliance with NPT)

– Safety and SecuritySafety and Security– Science and TechnologyScience and Technology– Safeguards and Safeguards and

VerificationVerification

The IAEA (cont.)The IAEA (cont.) STRENGTHSSTRENGTHS-- “Grand Bargain”“Grand Bargain”- Creating a channel for Creating a channel for

cooperative global nuclear cooperative global nuclear researchresearch

- 1968 signing of NPT1968 signing of NPT- 1996 Test Ban Treaty1996 Test Ban Treaty- 1990’s 11990’s 1stst Nuclear Weapons Nuclear Weapons

Free Zone, in Latin AmericaFree Zone, in Latin America- Former Republics of Russia Former Republics of Russia

relinquish all nuclear weapons relinquish all nuclear weapons back into Russian control.back into Russian control.

- 1993 South Africa voluntarily 1993 South Africa voluntarily dismantled entire Nuclear dismantled entire Nuclear wepons program.wepons program.

WEAKNESSESWEAKNESSES- Inadequate verification and Inadequate verification and

enforcement provisions.enforcement provisions.- Lack of universal export Lack of universal export

control systemcontrol system- No Time Table for No Time Table for

Disarmament.Disarmament.- Allows members to withdraw Allows members to withdraw

from the treaty without from the treaty without penalty. penalty.

- Four states with Nuclear Four states with Nuclear weapons not signitories of weapons not signitories of NPT; Isreal, Pakistan, India, NPT; Isreal, Pakistan, India, North Korea. North Korea.

The Nuclear non-proliferation The Nuclear non-proliferation treatytreaty

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is an international treaty The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is an international treaty designed to limit the spread of nuclear weapons.designed to limit the spread of nuclear weapons.– opened for signature on July 1, 1968. opened for signature on July 1, 1968. – There are currently 189 countries part of the treaty, five of which There are currently 189 countries part of the treaty, five of which

have nuclear weapons: the United States, Great Britain, France, have nuclear weapons: the United States, Great Britain, France, Russia, and China (the permanent members of the UN Security Russia, and China (the permanent members of the UN Security Council).Council).

3 Pillars of the Treaty; (1) Non-Proliferation, (2) Disarmament, (3) 3 Pillars of the Treaty; (1) Non-Proliferation, (2) Disarmament, (3) Peaceful use of Nuclear Technology.Peaceful use of Nuclear Technology.

Only four nations with nuclear weapons are not signatories: India, Israel, Only four nations with nuclear weapons are not signatories: India, Israel, Pakistan and North Korea.Pakistan and North Korea.– India and Pakistan both possess and have openly tested nuclear India and Pakistan both possess and have openly tested nuclear

bombs. Israel has had a secretive policy regarding its own nuclear bombs. Israel has had a secretive policy regarding its own nuclear weapons program. North Korea ratified the treaty, violated it, and weapons program. North Korea ratified the treaty, violated it, and later withdrew.later withdrew.

The Khan Network The Khan Network Abdul Qadeer Khan, Abdul Qadeer Khan,

the "Godfather" of the "Godfather" of Pakistan's nuclear Pakistan's nuclear weapons program. weapons program.

Prime Minister Ali Prime Minister Ali Bhutto appointed Khan Bhutto appointed Khan to run Pakistan’s to run Pakistan’s nuclear research nuclear research program.program.

By 1988, he completed By 1988, he completed 5 underground nuclear 5 underground nuclear tests. tests.

The Khan Network (cont.)The Khan Network (cont.) Countries associated with: Iraq, Iran, North Countries associated with: Iraq, Iran, North

Korea, Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Korea, Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Algeria, Kuwait, Burma, Malaysia, Indonesia, Algeria, Kuwait, Burma, & Abu Dhabi & Abu Dhabi

Also linked to Osama bin Laden & Al Qaeda Also linked to Osama bin Laden & Al Qaeda web of sponsors and suppliers, have linked web of sponsors and suppliers, have linked

companies and banks in Europe, groups in companies and banks in Europe, groups in Asia Asia and the Middle East have provided high-tech and the Middle East have provided high-tech equipment and financing for nuclear weapons equipment and financing for nuclear weapons

programs.programs.

Soviet Union Nukes Soviet Union Nukes the Soviet Union had 18,000 nuclear weapons at the height of the the Soviet Union had 18,000 nuclear weapons at the height of the

Cold War.Cold War. a large number are unaccounted for, unsure as to how many are a large number are unaccounted for, unsure as to how many are

actually missing.actually missing. Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) 1993 designed to destroy Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) 1993 designed to destroy

nuclear weapons and increase security in the satellite countries of nuclear weapons and increase security in the satellite countries of Russia that housed nuclear weapons but it is not enough.Russia that housed nuclear weapons but it is not enough.

almost impossible to keep into account of every single nuclear almost impossible to keep into account of every single nuclear weapon from the Soviet Union and on the market.weapon from the Soviet Union and on the market.

Dirty BombsDirty Bombs weaker version of a nuclear bombweaker version of a nuclear bomb made from radioactive wastemade from radioactive waste easier to penetrate civilian nuclear waste facilities than a weapons easier to penetrate civilian nuclear waste facilities than a weapons

facilitiesfacilities not a weapon of mass destruction but a weapon of mass not a weapon of mass destruction but a weapon of mass

disruptiondisruption

Real Threat of Nuclear Real Threat of Nuclear Attack?Attack?

Construction of a bomb Construction of a bomb would take up to four would take up to four months.months.

Size of technical team Size of technical team would have to be would have to be immense.immense.

Constant maintenance of Constant maintenance of nukes takes a lot of nukes takes a lot of resources.resources.

Obtaining the materials Obtaining the materials necessary for making a necessary for making a bomb is difficult to bomb is difficult to achieve without arousing achieve without arousing suspicion.suspicion.

Obtaining nuclear fuel is Obtaining nuclear fuel is almost exclusively almost exclusively available to large states.available to large states.

Rogue states can bar Rogue states can bar IGO’s like the IAEA from IGO’s like the IAEA from inspecting their nuclear inspecting their nuclear facilities.facilities.

Terrorists can still create Terrorists can still create lots of dirty bombs or lots of dirty bombs or obtain nuclear weapons obtain nuclear weapons and deploy them rapidly.and deploy them rapidly.

Very little deterrence for Very little deterrence for terrorists in using terrorists in using nuclear weapons.nuclear weapons.

Nuclear Weapons and Terrorist Nuclear Weapons and Terrorist Organizations Organizations

Acquisition of Weapons/Materials Acquisition of Weapons/Materials – Purchase off the black-market or rogue Purchase off the black-market or rogue

statesstates– Seizure of a nuclear stock pile by force or Seizure of a nuclear stock pile by force or

thefttheft Terrorist Organizations Terrorist Organizations

– al-Qaedaal-Qaeda– HezbollahHezbollah

Nuclear TerrorismNuclear Terrorism States Linked to States Linked to

Terror Organizations:Terror Organizations: Libya, Iran, Pakistan Libya, Iran, Pakistan

Syria and North Syria and North KoreaKorea

-Iran; links to Hezbollah -Iran; links to Hezbollah anti-Israeli rhetoricanti-Israeli rhetoric

-Pakistan; Instability in -Pakistan; Instability in the nation of al-the nation of al-Qeada’s operations Qeada’s operations basebase

Terrorist Terrorist Organizations as a Organizations as a ThreatThreat– Doctrine of MAD no Doctrine of MAD no

longer shared longer shared – Organizational Organizational

wealth in financewealth in finance– Validation of Validation of

terrorists’ political terrorists’ political agendas through agendas through “the bomb”“the bomb”

ThesisThesis

The IAEA and the nuclear non-The IAEA and the nuclear non-proliferation treaty represent steps in proliferation treaty represent steps in the right direction for global nuclear the right direction for global nuclear safeguards. These protections, safeguards. These protections, however, are outdated and ineffective however, are outdated and ineffective in preventing the proliferation of in preventing the proliferation of nuclear weaponry. We must overhaul nuclear weaponry. We must overhaul current anti-proliferation strategies in current anti-proliferation strategies in order to mitigate these security risks. order to mitigate these security risks.

Can Proliferation be Can Proliferation be Stopped?Stopped?

RealistRealist– Rational deterrence Rational deterrence

theory.theory.– Mutually assured Mutually assured

destruction (MAD).destruction (MAD).– Proliferation = Proliferation =

international international stability.stability.

Neo-liberal Neo-liberal InstitutionalismInstitutionalism– Domestic Domestic

determinantsdeterminants Economic and politicalEconomic and political

– Role of international Role of international institutionsinstitutions NPT, IAEA, and U.N.NPT, IAEA, and U.N.

New Anti-Proliferation New Anti-Proliferation StrategiesStrategies

The Graham Allison PlanThe Graham Allison Plan– No “loose” nukesNo “loose” nukes

Bolster security not only of Bolster security not only of nuclear weapons, but also nuclear weapons, but also civilian nuclear material.civilian nuclear material.

– No new nascent nukesNo new nascent nukes Barr production of new Barr production of new

uranium and plutonium.uranium and plutonium.

– No new nuclear weaponsNo new nuclear weapons Halt the production of any Halt the production of any

new nuclear weapons from new nuclear weapons from current states and prevent current states and prevent new nuclear states. new nuclear states.

Anti-Proliferation Strategies Anti-Proliferation Strategies (cont.) (cont.)

Contain North Contain North Korea and IranKorea and Iran– If North Korea If North Korea

and/or Iran obtain and/or Iran obtain capable nuclear capable nuclear technology, regional technology, regional arms races could arms races could spell the dissolution spell the dissolution of the NPT. of the NPT. South Korea, Japan, South Korea, Japan,

Middle EastMiddle East Use economic and Use economic and

political pressures. political pressures.

Works CitedWorks Cited Albright, David. "Uncovering the Nuclear Black Market: Working Albright, David. "Uncovering the Nuclear Black Market: Working

Toward." Institute for Nuclear Materials Management. Institute Toward." Institute for Nuclear Materials Management. Institute for Nuclear Materials Management (INMM)45th Annual for Nuclear Materials Management (INMM)45th Annual Meeting. Orlando, FL. 02 July 2004. 05 Apr. 2008 Meeting. Orlando, FL. 02 July 2004. 05 Apr. 2008 <http://www.isis-<http://www.isis-online.org/publications/southasia/nuclear_black_market.html>. online.org/publications/southasia/nuclear_black_market.html>.

Cooper, Mary H. "Nuclear Proliferation and Terorism: Can Cooper, Mary H. "Nuclear Proliferation and Terorism: Can "Rogue" "Rogue" States and Terrorists Aquire Nuclear Weapons?" States and Terrorists Aquire Nuclear Weapons?" Congressional Congressional QuarterlyQuarterly 14 (2004): 299-319. 05 Apr. 14 (2004): 299-319. 05 Apr. 2008 2008 <http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/cqr_proliferation.pdf<http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/cqr_proliferation.pdf>. >.

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