Local Climate Change Impacts and South Africa's contribution to Climate Change

Mitigation

Climate Change and Air Quality

Overview• Background of the Biennial Update Report (BUR)• Climate Change Impacts in South Africa

• Water • Agriculture and Forestry• Human Health• Marine and Fisheries• Biodiversity

• South Africa’s Response:• Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Status • Options for reducing emissions• Impact of reducing emissions

• Other measures (e.g. Market Instruments)• Carbon Tax

• Conclusions

Climate Change Impacts in South Africa

Selected findings

Highly developed planning process, tools and system in place

Anticipates demand growth, 98%-95% assurance of supply depending on

strategic needs

Focus on infrastructure development, little focus on demand management

Early climate change planning in a few key water management areas

Overall climate change strategy has been developed, adaptive capacity is

high in both built and ecological infrastructure and catchment

management

LTAS PHASE 1

LTAS PHASE 1

Selected findings

Overall risks due to increasing temperature relate to increasing water demand, pests

and diseases, crop suitability

Maize production at risk in western reaches of summer rainfall area, wheat production at risk in winter rainfall region, key export

fruit crops at risk but commercial producers show high adaptability

High risk for small scale and subsistence farmers, including adverse field conditions

for labour

Commercial forestry shows high adaptability due to breeding (clones) and

management techniques

LTAS PHASE 1

Selected findings

Very recent overall strategy produced

Key risks due to existing disease burden and poverty, especially in rural and urban poor, especially relating to

extreme events

Risks for high levels of discomfort due to poor living conditions in informal

settlements and low cost housing, exacerbated by food security and lack of

access to food

Some risks relating to vector borne diseases, e.g. malaria, schistosomiasis

Adaptive strategies include efficient early warning systems and improved living conditions and reduced poverty

LTAS PHASE 1

Selected findings

Highly uncertain projections for key stocks (already heavily depleted), due to inadequate projections of

marine processes, including currents

Risks to coastal livelihoods interact with governance systems for

resources

Recent shifts in resources, possibly cyclical, have caused assets to be stranded (West Coast factories)

Adaptation strategies relate to sustainable management of stocks

and improved predictive understanding

LTAS PHASE 1

Selected findings

Range of vulnerabilities of different biomes, with grassland and winter rainfall

biomes most at risk

Potential risk due to expansion of desert biome conditions in central interior

Observed impacts on some species, especially migratory bird species

Bush encroachment risk to grazing systems and ecotourism

Adaptive capacity high with many management options, early warning and observation systems are critical, spatial

planning to ensure maintenance of resilient landscapes

Ecosystem based adaptation offers value to South African society

South Africa’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Status Quo

CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) in 2010 (WB, 2014)

15

United St

ates

Saudi A

rabia

Australia

Canad

a

Russian

Federa

tion

Norway

Finlan

d

Korea, R

ep.

Netherl

ands

OECD m

embers

Belgium

Japan

German

y

South Afri

ca

Irelan

d

Denmark

Poland

United Kingd

om

European

UnionIta

lyChina

Spain

Swed

enFra

nceWorld Chile

Turke

y

Mexico

Brazil

Peru

Indonesia

Vietnam India

Nigeria

GhanaKen

ya0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

GHG Emissions, Megatonnes (Source: EIA)GHG Emissions M-Tons - 2009

Rank Country M - ton %1 China 7 711 25.4%2 United States 5 425 17.8%3 India 1 602 5.3%4 Russia 1 572 5.2%5 Japan 1 098 3.6%6 Germany 766 2.5%7 Canada 541 1.8%8 Korea, South 528 1.7%9 Iran 527 1.7%

10 United Kingdom 520 1.7%11 Saudi Arabia 470 1.5%12 South Africa 450 1.5%13 Mexico 444 1.5%14 Brazil 420 1.4%15 Australia 418 1.4%16 Indonesia 413 1.4%17 Italy 408 1.3%18 France 397 1.3%19 Spain 330 1.1%20 Taiwan 291 1.0%21 Poland 286 0.9%

Energy ↑ by 28.9%.

IPPU ↓ by 1.1%.

AFOLU ↑ by 68.9%.

Waste ↑ by 59.8%.

GHG Emissions Inventory - • South Africa’s 2010 national inventory (excluding the LULUCF

sector) was 579 million tonnes CO2e.• Emissions increased by 29.6% compared with 2000 levels.

Between 2000 and 2010:

Industrial Processes – Emissions breakdown by sub-sector 2010

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Sectoral GDP trends

MinManuElecConsServTrans+ComFinPersGov

Real GDP (R millions)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 420,000,000

440,000,000

460,000,000

480,000,000

500,000,000

520,000,000

540,000,000

560,000,000

580,000,000

blankSasolburg natural gas conversionSecunda coal to gas feedstock changeNitrous oxide abatement projectsSasol energy optimisation projectsEskom Demand Side Management projectsClean Development Mechanism projectsblankNational GHG inventory without mitigation measuresNational GHG inventory

tCO

2e

Effect of South Africa’s mitigation actions on the national GHG inventory

Effect of South Africa’s mitigation initiatives on the national GHG inventory

Mitigation Options to Reduce Emissions

Mitigation Options: Energy Sector (2020)

Mitigation Options: Road Transport (2020)

Mitigation Options: Agriculture & Land Use (2020)

Mitigation Options: Waste (2020)

Overall Impact of Mitigation Options

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025200

400

600

800

1000

PPD Upper-range 1

PPD trajectory lower limits

GHG Inventory (2000-10) + MPA-WOM (2011-25)

WEM

MPA: WAM-100%

MPA: WAM-75%

MPA: WAM-50%

MPA: WAM-25%

MPA-GWC

Market Instruments to Reduce Emissions – Carbon Tax

Carbon TaxRevenue

Carbon tax at R120 per ton of CO2e from Jan 2016.

90% maximum tax free allowance

60% basic tax free threshold

10% tax free allowance for trade exposure

10% tax free allowance for process emissions

5-10% allowance for Carbon Offsets – to reduce the carbon tax liability

Observations and Lessons Learned• Key climate change impacts in South Africa in sectors such as

water, agriculture and biodiversity• Emissions have risen by 29% in 2010 compared to 2000

emission levels• Carbon intensity of the economy has decline over the past

years largely due to growth in the services sector• Private sector initiatives have had a significant impact on

reducing South Africa’s national emissions profile.

Thank You