joint subcommittee on the future competitiveness of
TRANSCRIPT
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Joint Subcommittee on the Future Competitiveness of
Virginia Higher Education Demography, Planning and Measuring Success:
Why They Matter
September 14, 2015 Peter Blake
Wendy Kang Tod Massa
1
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Agenda
2
Virginia Demographics and Trends
Virginia Plan for Higher Education
Measuring Student Success
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72
41
36
17
18
12
10
12
9
21
24
7
11
11
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
1973
2010
2020
High school or
less
Some
college Associate’s Bachelor’s Master’s
and above
Educational Demand for Jobs Increasing
3 Source: Georgetown Center on Education and Workforce Analysis, “Recovery:
Job Growth and Education Requirements through 2020”.
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Employer Needs
4
It’s not just technical skills…….
96%
of all occupations
require critical
thinking and
active
listening 70% of all occupations
require
mathematical
knowledge
Source: Georgetown Center on Education and Workforce Analysis, “Recovery:
Job Growth and Education Requirements through 2020”.
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• Individual • Non-market
• Market • Society
Greater social cohesion, trust and tolerance
Increased tax revenues, less
burden on public finance
Higher earnings and
lower unemployment
Greater propensity to
volunteer, better health, greater life satisfaction
Benefits of Broad Based Education
5
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Population in Virginia Shifting
6
25
24
24
64
64
58
11
12
19
2010
2020
2030
Under 18 18-64 65 and over
Source: US Census Bureau
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High School Graduates Changing
7
275 5,896
16,643
7,720
45,766
301 10,098
17,236
11,727
43,335
AmericanIndian/AlaskanNative
Asian/Pacific Islander
Black, Non-Hispanic
Hispanic/Latino
White, non-
2027-28
2014-15
Source: WICHE
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Financial Need Growing
8
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Percent of Overall Enrollment Demonstrating Need
4-year average
VCCS average
Source: SCHEV staff analysis
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9
Changing Higher Ed Costs
$7,881 $8,430
$11,703
$8,302 $8,479
$6,223 $6,471
$6,048
$6,963 $6,819
$8,531
$9,935 $11,329 $11,500
$12,182
$13,471
$15,727
$14,872
$16,403 $16,088 $16,980
1992-93 1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2015-16
General Fund per In-State FTE Nongeneral Fund per Total FTE
Average Funding per FTE Student at Four-Year Institutions
(in 2015-16 Constant Dollars)
Source: SCHEV staff analysis
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Changing Higher Ed Costs
10
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Changing Higher Ed Costs
11
28%
30%
32% 32% 32% 31%
32%
35%
36%
37%
42% 42%
43%
35%
37%
39%
38%
36%
32% 33%
34%
36%
38%
42%
43%
47%
48%
Average Public Four-Year Total Resident Undergraduate Charges
As a Percent of Per Capita Disposable Income
Virginia
National
Source: SCHEV staff analysis
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12
TOP ISSUES IN HIGHER EDUCATION, 2015
ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNING BOARDS
(AGB)
AMERICAN
ASSOCIATION OF
STATE COLLEGES
AND UNIVERSITIES
(AASCU)
“Top 10 State Policy
Issues
for 2015”
(Published in January
2015)
COUNCIL OF STATE
GOVERNMENTS
“Top 5 Issues in 2015,
Education”
(Published in January
2015)
EDUCATION
COMMISSION OF THE
STATES (ECS)
“Governors’ Top
Education Issues,
2015”
(Published in Feb
2015)
EDUVENTURES
“Top Predictions for
Higher Education in
2015”
(Published in
December 2014)
“Top Public Policy
Issues, 2015-16”
(Published in March
2015)
“Top 10 Strategic
Issues for Boards,
2013-14” (2013)
1-Financial Challenges
and Constraints
1-The Revenue
Model 1-Tuition Policy
1-School Readiness for
All 1-Early Learning
1-Competency-based
direct assessment will
grow.
2-College Access and
Affordability
2-Productivity and
Efficiency
2-State Appropriations
for Higher Education
2-Experiential and
Work-based Learning 2-School Finance
2-Higher ed spending
on IT will pick up speed.
3-College Completion 3-Student Aid 3-Campus Sexual
Assault
3-Academic Success
for At-risk Populations 3-School Choice
3-Online learning will
grow modestly.
4-Institutional
Performance Metrics
4-Educational
Delivery
4-Veterans Education
Benefits
4-Innovative State
Accountability Systems 4-Teaching Quality
4-Institutional debt will
bubble over.
5-Sexual Assault 5-Student Learning 5-Undocumented
Students
5-Advance Attainment
of Degrees, Certificates
and High-quality
Credentials
5-Workforce
Development / Career
and Technical
Education
5-Reliance on non-
alumni philanthropic
support will grow.
6-Increased Scrutiny of
Collegiate Athletics 6-Student Success 6-Guns on Campus
6-Postsecondary
Funding, Affordability
and Access
6-Outcomes will
continue to lead the
conversation.
7-Affirmative Action 7-Market and Mission
7-Secondary--
Postsecondary
Standards Alignment
8-Data Privacy 8-The Academic
Workforce
8-State Student Aid
Programs
9-Change in the
Regulatory Landscape 9-Globalization
9-Performance Based
Funding
10-Institutional Risk 10-Free Community
College
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13
Best
Educated
State by
2030
Virginia
Plan for
Higher
Education
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Agenda
14
Virginia Student Demographics and
Trends
Virginia Plan for Higher Education
Measuring Student Success
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Stakeholder Input: Five Themes and Their Success Factors
15
Enhance Culture of Learning
Accessible Pathways
Seamless Transfer/Articulation
Affordable Tuition/Net Price
Needs-Based Aid
Manage Total Price of Completion
Accelerate Completion Time
Recognize Regional Variations
Respond to Changing Demography
Nurture Pre-K-20 Pipeline
High School Bridge Programs
Improve College Readiness
Elevate Completion Rates
Degree Completion Tracks
Institutional Leadership
Dependable State Funding
Streamline Mandates/Regulation
Deliver Expected Outcomes/Value
Improve Productivity/Efficiency
Achieve Innovation at Scale
Collaboration/Collective Action
Shared Services
New Revenue Streams
Leverage Technology-Based Tools/
Practices/Experiences
Refine Capital Construction Model
Institutional Leadership
Distinctiveness of Virginia Institutions
Excellence in
Performance/Outcomes/Value
Academic Quality
Competitive Salaries & Compensation
Innovation in New Modes of Learning
Resilience/Responsiveness
Higher Education is Critical to P&EV
Achieve a Well-Prepared Workforce,
at All Levels
Support Regional
Distinctiveness/Development
Increase/Leverage Research Activity
Accelerate Entrepreneurship/Innovation
Commercialize Ideas/Ventures
Eliminate Impediments/Barriers
Support Clusters/Centers of Excellence
Access/Affordability Student Success Excellence
Sustainability Prosperity &
Economic Vitality
Among Stakeholders who
contributed: • College and HS students,
teachers and administrators
• Business and Community
Leaders, VBHEC, VA Chamber of
Commerce
• Legislative and Executive
Leaders and Staff
• SCHEV Council and Staff
• COP Presidents Advisory Group
• FAC and IPAC
Graduates Prepared for Useful
Lives:
-Critical Thinking Skills
-Active Citizens
-Employability/Work Habits
-Capacity for Perpetual
Learning
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GOAL: Provide Affordable Access for All
• Expand outreach to PK-12 and traditionally
underserved populations
• Improve the college readiness of all
students
• Cultivate affordable postsecondary
education pathways for traditional, non-
traditional and returning students
• Align state appropriations, financial aid
and tuition and fees such that students
have broader access to postsecondary
education opportunities regardless of their
ability to pay
16
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GOAL: Optimize Student Success for Work and Life
• Strengthen curricular options to ensure that graduates are
prepared with the competencies necessary for
employment and civic engagement
• Provide effective academic and student services
infrastructures focused on persistence and completion
• Increase on-time completion of certificates and degrees
• Engage adults and veterans in certificate and degree
completion and lifelong learning
17
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GOAL: Drive Change and Improvement through Investment and Innovation
• Identify and implement public funding strategies to sustain
long-term planning and responsiveness
• Cultivate innovations that enrich quality, promote
collaboration and improve efficiency
• Foster faculty excellence, scholarship and diversity
• Enhance higher education leadership, governance and
accountability
18
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GOAL: Advance the Economic and Cultural Prosperity of the Commonwealth and its Regions
• Build a competitive, future-ready workforce for all regions
• Be a catalyst for entrepreneurship and a model for
business incubation
• Target funding, resources and partnerships to support
research and development
• Expand participation and engagement in public and
institutional service to the community
19
• Demonstrate the impact of higher
education on state and regional
economic development
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Measuring our progress
20
Awards Research
Student
Success Price
Affordability Economic
Prosperity
State Level Measures and Targets
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Awards
21
Grant 1.5 million degrees and workforce credentials by
2030, including those that close the gap in unfilled jobs
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Annual awards Cumulative Awards
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Success
22
Annually improve completion rates that close the gap
between underrepresented populations and
traditional students by 2030
82
63
42
Public 4-year Private 4-year 2-year
Traditional students Underrepresented
11
11
10
*2006-07 cohort for 4-year/2008-09 cohort for 2-year).
Completion rates based on Student Success Index
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Affordability
23
Meet half of the cost of attendance for low- and middle-
income students through expected family contribution and
state and federal grant aid by 2030
Cost of
Attendance
50%
Work,
institutional
aid, loans
50%
Expected family
contribution,
state and
federal aid
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Affordability
24
Meet half of the cost of attendance for low- and middle-
income students through expected family contribution and
state and federal grant aid by 2030
Cost of
Attendance
Current state
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Research
25
Increase Virginia’s research expenditures as a percent
of national totals by 30 percent by 2030
2.14 2.75
2013-14 2029-30
Source: National Science Foundation, Institution reported expenditures
from all sources for Federal Fiscal Year 2013
$1.4B
$2.4B (estimated)
(% of US total)
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Price
26
Keep undergraduate net tuition and fees as a
percentage of family income lower the national average
and less than 10% of low- and middle-income students
$0
$50,000
$100,000
Low Middle
Net Tuition and Fees
Total
Income 10.1%
8.7%
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Economic Prosperity
27
Ensure that 75% of graduates earn sustainable
wages after 3 years
Goal
75%
Current State
72%
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Agenda
28
Virginia Student Demographics and
Trends
Virginia Plan for Higher Education
Measuring Student Success
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Student Success
29
Measures:
Traditional graduation rates
Student success index (SSI)
Average time to degree
Initiatives:
State and institution
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Graduation Rates by State
14% 15%
18% 26% 27%
29% 38% 38%
40% 41% 42%
43% 43% 43% 44%
45% 46% 46% 47% 48% 48% 48% 48% 49% 49% 49% 50%
52% 53% 53% 53%
54% 54% 55% 56% 56% 57% 57% 57% 58% 58%
60% 61% 61% 61% 61% 61% 62% 62%
63% 65%
67% 69% 70% 70%
73%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
American Samoa
Northern Marianas
Guam
Idaho
Arkansas
Puerto Rico
Oklahoma
Georgia
Kentucky
Hawaii
Tennessee
South Dakota
Florida
Mississippi
Ohio
Indiana
Wyoming
Oregon
Nebraska
Rhode Island
Minnesota
Michigan
South Carolina
Connecticut
Vermont
California
New Hampshire
Virginia
Six-Year Graduation Rates at Public Four-Year Institutions Delaware
Iowa
30
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Traditional Graduation Rates (1998, 2001)
31
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Traditional Graduation Rates (2008, 2011)
32
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Change in Six-Year Graduation Rates (1998, 2008)
33
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Student Success Index, 4-Years
34
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Student Success Index, 2-Years
35
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SSI by Institution
36
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Average Time-to-Degree
37
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Differences in Student Success (public four-years)
38
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Family Income and Graduation Rate
39
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Unmet Financial Need and Graduation Rates
40
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The Impact of Student Effort
41
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Initiatives Focused on Student Success
42
Data analysis: Identify factors that
correlate with student success
Promising practices: Identify and support
practices that create affordable pathways
and student success
Policy review: Identify opportunities to
strengthen financial aid and other polices
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Sample Institutional Practices
43
Pathway
Programs
Predictive
Analytics
Living
Learning
Communities
High Impact
Education
Technology
Special terms/
Summer
Schools
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Joint Subcommittee on the Future Competitiveness of
Virginia Higher Education Demography, Planning and Measuring Success:
Why They Matter
September 14, 2015 Peter Blake
Wendy Kang Tod Massa
44