I1'6C1S. HRG. 108-402

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: OCTOBER 2003

HEARINGBEFORE THE

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES

ONE HUNDRED EIGHTH CONGRESS

FIRST SESSION

NOVEMBER 7, 2003

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JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE

[Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Congress]

SENATEROBERT F. BENNETT, Utah, ChairmanSAM BROWNBACK, KansasJEFF SESSIONS, AlabamaJOHN SUNUNU, New HampshireLAMAR ALEXANDER, TennesseeSUSAN COLLINS, MaineJACK REED, Rhode IslandEDWARD M. KENNEDY, MassachusettsPAUL S. SARBANES, MarylandJEFF BINGAMAN, New Mexico

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVESJIM SAXTON, New Jersey, Vice ChairmanPAUL RYAN, WisconsinJENNIFER DUNN, WashingtonPHIL ENGLISH, PennsylvaniaADAM H. PUTNAM, FloridaRON PAUL, TexasPETE STARK, CaliforniaCAROLYN B. MALONEY, New YorkMELVIN L. WATT, North CarolinaBARON P. HILL, Indiana

DONALD B. MARRON, Executive Director and Chief EconomistWENDELL PRIMUS, Minority Staff Director

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CONTENTS

OPENING STATEMENT OF MEMBERS

Senator Robert F. Bennett, Chairman ............................................................... 1Representative Pete Stark, Ranking Minority Member ........................ . 2

WITNESS

Statement of Hon. Kathleen P. Utgoff, Commissioner, Bureau of LaborStatistics, Accompanied by Kenneth V. Dalton, Associate Commissioner,Office of Prices and Living Conditions; and John M. Galvin, AssociateCommissioner, Employment and Unemployment Statistics ............ ................. 4

SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD

Prepared statement of Senator Robert F. Bennett, Chairman ............................ 29Prepared statement of Representative Jim Saxton, Vice Chairman ................... 30Prepared Statement of Representative Pete Stark, Ranking Minority Member 30Prepared Statement of Commissioner Kathleen P. Utgoff, together with Press

Release No. 03-675, entitled, "The Employment Situation: October 2003,"Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor ............................................. 35

Response of John M. Galvin, Associate Commissioner, to RepresentativeBaron Hill .............................................................. 60

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THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION:OCTOBER 2003

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2003

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES,JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE,

Washington, D.C.The Committee met at 9:30 a.m., in room SD-628 of the Dirksen

Senate Office Building, the Honorable Robert Bennett, Chairman ofthe Committee, presiding.

Senators present: Senators Bennett, Sessions, Reed andSarbanes.

Representatives present: Representatives Saxton, Ryan,Putnam, Stark and Hill.

Staff present: Donald Marron, Ike Brannon, Jeff Wrase, ColleenHealy, Melissa Barnson, Chris Frenze, Robert Keleher, RebeccaWilder, Wendell Primus, Chad Stone, Daphne Clones-Federing,Nan Gibson, Josh Shakin, and Rachel Klastorin.

OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR ROBERT F. BENNETT,CHAIRMAN

Chairman Bennett. The hearing will come to order. Good morn-ing to all and welcome to today's employment hearing.

Like virtually every other economic statistic reported in the pastmonth, the employment numbers released today are definitely goodnews for the American worker.

No matter how you cut it, the economy is adding new jobs at arapid pace and will likely continue to do so for the foreseeable fu-ture.

The official payroll statistics indicate that the U.S. economy cre-ated 126,000 new jobs in the month of October, the third month ina row that payroll employment rose. The revised numbers now in-dicate that 125,000 jobs were added in September and that evenAugust, previously reported as negative, is now considered to havebeen positive.

The unemployment rate declined to 6 percent. The householdsurvey reported that employment increased by an astounding441,000 in September, and according to the household survey, oureconomy has now essentially replaced all of the jobs lost during the2001 recession, and the number of jobs is now at an all-time high.

Now I understand that we're going to be talking about payrollsurvey numbers. But I want to continue to examine the questionof the disparity between these two surveys.

As I have looked at it, I have found that, historically, they'vebeen very close together and the divergence began during our re-

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cent economic difficulty. And I would like to talk about why andwhat might be done to reconcile these two conflicting messages.

I believe that today's employment numbers, along with the steepdrop in new jobless claims and the large increases in productivityand output, indicate quite clearly that the U.S. economy is return-ing to a period of strong growth.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday that produc-tivity grew at an annual rate of 8.1 percent in the third quarterof 2003.

Now some of my colleagues tend to gnash their teeth at the highproductivity growth of late, lamenting that firms are learning howto do without workers. However, our experience over 30 years tellsus that periods of rapid increases in the productivity capacity ofour economy are almost always accompanied by low unemploy-ment.

Increasing the standard of living and employment at the sametime requires healthy productivity growth.

Now it's too easy for the party in power to take the blame whenthe economy slows. And for that reason, it is all too tempting totake all the credit when things turn around.

I'm sure there are some who will insist that today's numbers area consequence of Arnold Schwarzeneggar's having won in Cali-fornia.

[Laughter.]But in reality, the government holds little sway over the business

cycle, despite what some may think or desire.Our economy floundered in the middle of the year 2000, in large

part, due to a hang-over from the high-tech boom, likely abetted bya rise in interest rates. The stagnant economy was prolonged bythe 9/11 disaster, resultant uncertainties in the Middle East, highenergy prices, and various scandals in financial markets.

That our economy steadily expanded in the face of so many po-tentially calamitous events in succession is a testament to the abil-ity and dedication of the American worker, as well as to our eco-nomic system.

This is not to say that government cannot spur the economy. I'mone who believes that the Bush tax cut enacted in 2001 undoubt-edly softened the blow of the events that befell the economy andserved to make the recession shallower than it otherwise wouldhave been, and that the tax cuts passed this year provided someneeded impetus at the right time.

Dr. Utgoff, it's always a pleasure to have you visit us, but we es-pecially enjoy it when you come bearing good news.

So we welcome you to the Joint Economic Committee and lookforward to hearing your testimony.

Mr. Stark, we'd appreciate hearing from you.[The prepared statement of Senator Bennett appears in the

Submissions for the Record on page 29.]

OPENING STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE PETE STARK,RANKING MINORITY MEMBER

Representative Stark. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.I find myself in the uncomfortable position of trying to make a

sow's ear out of a silk purse this morning.

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[Laughter.]You are to be congratulated on the good news. We're not so far

from Halloween, so I watched George the Lesser hop out of an air-plane in his pilot's suit and say, "The war's over."

I now expect him to put on his pinstripe suit, get out of a lim-ousine and say, "The Depression is over."

We'll see if he's any more accurate on the state of the economythan he was on the war.

We did create some jobs in the last couple of months. And youforgot to mention, I think, that the recalculation showed that evenperhaps September's numbers were better than we had previouslythought. And without switching to the household numbers, itlooked good.

We're still facing a trillion dollars' worth of debt. We still havein San Jose, California, and in the Silicon Valley area, for instance,300,000 highly skilled computer workers, programmers, out ofwork.

Now, it's one thing to say-"Great, fellas. You can go and get 20hours a week at Wal-Mart." Of course, without benefits and, if Sec-retary Chao has her way, without union representation. But that'swhat's happening.

The good jobs aren't there.High productivity-you're saying, yes, they're making stuff. But

they're making it in Asia, and then they're bringing it back here.It isn't so much that we're bringing the Indo-American workers

over from India. We're now shipping the whole nine yards, the com-pany and the factory and the workers, back to India, importing thestuff here, and our guys are out of work.

And the penultimate area is the South. It should be your terri-tory.

The Republican owners of the textile mills have figured out thatshipping the textile jobs overseas is closing their plants.

And yes, it gives us cheap T-shirts at Wal-Mart. But it also givesus pretty cheap jobs.

So we've got still about 9 million unemployed. We've got almost5 million people who are employed less than full time and wouldlike to work full time. 45 million people without health insurance,about 12 or 13 million of which are children.

Half of the people in America are earning less in the aggregatethan the top 1 percent are earning. And if, Mr. Chairman, interestrates go up, which I think they'll have to do to refinance the tril-lion-dollar debt, then the housing market goes in the tank andwe've got real problems.

And I'm happy to accord credit for creating these jobs. It's notenough. It's the worst job creation record since Herbert Hoover.But to not recognize the dangers is what scares me, to not have anexit plan. We've done that once in a different kind of war.

But to not recognize the danger of this swelling deficit and toknow that it could really destroy the lives of many people if thereal estate market, for instance, tanks, is what's missing.

Credit where credit is due and, as I say, I hate to be the skunkat the picnic, but I certainly would like us to be concerned aboutthe almost 15 million people, 14 million people, who are under- andunemployed.

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Thank you.[The prepared statement of Representative Stark appears in the

Submissions for the Record on page 30.]Chairman Bennett. I'm tempted to respond.Representative Stark. Oh, c'mon.Chairman Bennett. And I shall resist the temptation.Representative Stark. C'mon, c'mon.Chairman Bennett. We're here to hear Commissioner Utgoff.

We can have these debates back and forth, perhaps during thequestion period, or maybe even another forum.

Commissioner, we appreciate you being here and look forward tohearing what you have to say.

OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. KATHLEEN P. UTGOFF, Ph.D.COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, ACCOMPANIED BY KENNETH V.DALTON, ASSOCIATE COMMISSIONER, OFFICE OF PRICESAND LIVING CONDITIONS; AND JOHN M. GALVIN, ASSOCIATECOMMISSIONER, EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT STA-TISTICS

Commissioner Utgoff. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and Mem-bers of the Committee. I appreciate this opportunity to comment onthe labor market data we released this morning.

Non-farm payroll employment rose by 126,000 in October, fol-lowing increases in August and September that totaled 160,000,after revision.

I would note that the payroll survey estimates for the prior 2months are always subject to revision as we receive reports fromadditional survey respondents. This increase in payroll employmentover the last 3 months contrasts with declines in the February-Julyperiod that averaged 85,000 per month.

Several service industries added jobs in October. Manufacturingemployment continued to decline, although at a slower pace thanearlier in the year. The unemployment rate, at 6.0 percent, was es-sentially unchanged over the month.

Professional and business services added 43,000 jobs in October,with gains in many of its component industries. Employment intemporary help services continued to rise and is up by 150,000since April.

Employment in private educational services grew by 23,000 inOctober. Job gains over the last 3 months have more than offsetdeclines that occurred in June and July.

Over the year, employment in private education expanded by56,000. Health care and social assistance added 34,000 jobs, withnoteworthy gains in doctors' offices and in child daycare services.

In the leisure and hospitality sector, employment in food servicesand drinking places rose by 23,000. Job growth in food services haspicked up in recent months; since July, employment has increasedby 57,000. Within retail trade, food stores added 13,000 jobs in Oc-tober. Employment in food stores was boosted by the hiring of addi-tional workers in anticipation of strike.

Employment in construction was little changed over the month,but the industry has added 147,000 jobs since its most recenttrough in February. In October, employment in credit intermedi-

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ation decreased by 10,000, reflecting the decline in mortgage refi-nancing activity.

Manufacturing job losses continued in October. Declines in thesector have moderated in recent months, particularly in durablegoods manufacturing. In October, both the factory work week andovertime were unchanged.

After posting a small increase in September, employment in airtransportation fell in October. Since reaching its most recent peakin March, 2001, the industry has lost more than 20 percent of itsjobs.

Average hourly earnings for production or non-supervisory work-ers, at $15.46, were essentially unchanged in October. Over theyear, average hourly earnings rose by 2.4 percent.

Looking at some of the measures from our survey of households,the October unemployment rate of 6.0 percent was about the sameas in September. The jobless rates for all the major worker groupsshowed little change over the month. About 8.8 million personswere unemployed, of whom 2.0 million had been without a job for27 weeks or longer.

Employment as measured by our household survey rose over themonth.

In summary, non-farm payroll employment rose by 126,000 inOctober. Since July, employment is up by 286,000. The unemploy-ment rate, at 6.0 percent in October, was about unchanged.

Thank you. My colleagues and I would be glad to answer anyquestions that you have.

[The prepared statement of Commissioner Utgoff, together withPress Release No. 03-675, appear in the Submissions for the Recordon page 35.]

Chairman Bennett. Thank you very much.I do want to get into the question of the disparity between the

household survey and the payroll survey. And I want to make itclear to everybody that these are not competing surveys from com-peting think tanks.

This is not Brookings versus Heritage. This is not the Cato Insti-tute versus the Citizens for Tax Justice, each one going out anddoing its own analysis.

They both come out of BLS. They're both done by the organiza-tion over which you preside. And I'm not challenging the validityof either one, understanding the methodology. But I'm trying tofind out what can be done to change the methodology so that theycome into some kind of coordination between the two.

Because, as I said, historically, they've run pretty much together.They started to diverge around the time of the economic difficultywe've just gone through, and they tell very different stories.

So it's to the interest of everybody that we try to understand whythey are diverging, see what can be done to not necessarily bringthem together, but to come up with some kind of understanding ofexactly what is going on.

If I could share with you an example that came out of Bob Wood-ward's book on Alan Greenspan, called "Maestro." I'm not sure howmany people have read it.

But in that work, Woodward records how Chairman Greenspanbecame convinced, looking at all of the data, that the way the Fed-

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eral Reserve Board was calculating productivity numbers waswrong. And he said to the various economists and technicians atthe Fed-"Your productivity number has got to be wrong. Produc-tivity has got to be going up."

And they said, "No. Productivity is clearly going down. We aremeasuring it in the way that it has always been measured and itis going down."

And in a phrase that I have heard the Chairman use often, hesaid, "That violates the laws of mathematics. Productivity cannotbe going down and the equation that produces the other numbersstill work because we've got the final number out of the equationand the other numbers connected to it dictate that productivity hasto be going up."

And so, in an effort described in the book as an economist'sversion of the Manhattan Project, they went into their methodologyand discovered that the Chairman's instincts were correct, thattheir method of measuring productivity, however time-honored itmay have been, was wrong, and that the overall information withrespect to the economy did indeed dictate that productivity had tohave been going up in the period and they had to change theirways of measuring it.

Now I tell you that because I think it might be instructive hereon this question of the payroll survey versus the household survey.

What are we missing? How can we account for the disparity?Now I understand that the household survey picks up agricul-

tural jobs which the payroll survey misses. The household surveypicks up the unemployed, which the payroll survey misses. But thegap is too big to be filled with those two numbers.

If there's a statistical problem-that is, statistical noise in one orthe other of surveys, or both-we ought to do what we can to tryto fix that. We ought to do what we can to try to eliminate thatnoise.

Some have suggested as they've looked at this that the gap ispartly due to immigration. That is, the household survey picks upillegal aliens who are in the country and working in situationswhere they would not be on payrolls.

I think there may be some of that, but that number can't belarge enough to explain the disparity in the surveys.

A very quick anecdote that I would share with you.Flying back from Utah this last time, my seatmate on the air-

plane and I got into a conversation. She described her employmentsituation. She was one of those software engineers that Congress-man Stark has talked about who lost her job.

She was flying first-class to Washington on a platinum medallionstatus, obviously very much involved. And I said, "What do you donow?" And she said, "Well, now, after I lost my job working for alarge company, I got together with a few other software engineers.We formed a small company. We've got a niche that we're oper-ating in. I'm earning more money now. I'm busier now. I'm flyingto Washington every week on a lucrative consulting agreementwith the government and doing far better than I did before."

But the firm that was formed that she's involved with now doesnot show up in the payroll survey in any way. And she would not

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say that she's at Wal-Mart selling T-shirts. She'd say that this wasthe greatest thing that ever happened to her.

I don't know how many of those firms there are out there, littlefirms that fly under the radar screen of the payroll survey.

And so, just quickly, could we have a discussion about what canbe done to try to reconcile the differences between these two sur-veys?

And once again, I stress-these are not ideological surveys beingpushed by two different think tanks. These are both surveys care-fully constructed and managed over time by the Bureau of LaborStatistics which in previous eras did not diverge that much, andnow are diverging a great deal.

Can we discuss this? Have we got any ideas as to which onecomes the closest to telling us what's really happening in the econ-omy and what methodology might have to be changed in either orboth to bring them back to a range where you can explain the dif-ferences between the two of them?

Commissioner Utgoff. Mr. Chairman, first I'd like to point outthat the payroll and the household series have behaved differently.

In the late 1990s, the payroll series grew faster than the house-hold series. The BLS and the Census Bureau have undertaken athorough review of that period to try to explain the differences sothat it might shed some light on the current period.

It's difficult to understand, but we really couldn't explain a goodportion of those differences. Some of them were due to the factorthat you talked about, the immigration factor that was under-esti-mated in a recovery period.

It may in fact be that in a slow labor market, immigration andnew jobs through immigration have been over-estimated.

But I can't tell you that we can explain all the difference. As youknow, there are different surveys. They measure different things.But when they're adjusted for that, they still show different pat-terns since November and we really can't explain a good deal ofthat difference.

Chairman Bennett. Not to inject partisanship into this, but youunderstand how the two surveys get used in political oratory, withsome saying that the one survey demonstrates that we've got a ter-rible job market and the other survey demonstrates that we havereplaced all of the jobs that were lost in the recession.

That's a fairly significant statistical gap that needs to be filledin some way or another.

I'm glad to hear that you're working on trying to deal with it andI look forward to hearing the results of your efforts at some futuretime.

Congressman Stark.Representative Stark. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.Commissioner Utgoff, thank you once again for being with us

and I guess thank you for brightening the Republicans' day.I did want to ask you just-Chairman Bennett. Can we at least say that all Americans are

probably happy about this, including a few Democrats?[Laughter.]Representative Stark. Well, no. That's the problem, Mr. Chair-

man.

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As I was going to say, at the beginning of the recession, inMarch, 2001, correct?

Commissioner Utgoff. Yes.Representative Stark. I believe there were 1321/2 million peo-

ple employed.Is that correct?Commissioner Utgoff. Yes.Representative Stark. And how many people are employed

today?Commissioner Utgoff. A little over 130 million.Representative Stark. Two-and-one-half million fewer people

employed. And how many months of job growth at the level we hadlast month would it take us to get back to the pre-recession em-ployment level?

I've got an answer here. Let me make it quickly.Commissioner Utgoff. OK. I know roughly, but your

answer-Representative Stark. You tell me first.Commissioner Utgoff. No, I don't have that calculation.[Laughter.]Representative Stark. I've got 19 months. Is that about right?Commissioner Utgoff. OK. That's about right.Representative Stark. So we've got a long time, Mr. Chairman,

to go before we get back to where we were.Now, just a little bit off the subject, but not completely.In my other life, I worry about something obscure called TANF.

And you keep some figures about unemployment among womenwho maintain families. And again, what my numbers show is thatwhile we had 710,000 unemployed women who are maintainingfamilies back in November of 2001, we're up now-and we evenwent up in October over September-but up to 781,000.

That's not a big change, but I think those are ballpark figures.My question is, where we're requiring under TANF women to, or

TANF recipients, most of whom are women, to work 40 hours,which is kind of an elusive number because there aren't many 40-hour jobs, a lot of 37, aren't we putting pressure on the labor mar-ket in an area where very fragile families-that's my editorial de-scription of women who are working to maintain families-isn'tthat putting pressure on their finding jobs by pushing the welfarebeneficiaries to work longer hours in the private market?

Commissioner Utgoff. Well, as the economy improves, it islikely that employment for all groups will improve, particularly forgroups that are having labor market problems.

That is their best situation, is to have an improved labor market.Representative Stark. OK. I guess I wish you'd said, if the

economy improves.But how many jobs-and I know this is an area in which you

would still call this experimental or tentative data. But is it notcorrect that whether or not the JOLTS program has been deter-mined to be accurate and technically correct, that we had fewerjobs open at the end of August-I think 3 million is the number-and that prior to that, we had something like 3V/4 million jobs?

Can you give me a little estimate? How many jobs are out therethat are open, and has that gone up or down?

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Commissioner Utgoff. Yes, Mr. Galvin will answer that. Hehas the figures.

Representative Stark. OK.Mr. Galvin. Our JOLTS survey showed about 3 million vacan-

cies in our latest data point, August, 2003. That's down from about3.2 million a year earlier.

This is a very short series. We've only been putting it togethersince December 2000.

Representative Stark. I'll give you the disclaimer. I know thatthis is a very new and tentative figure that you're keeping and Ididn't mean to-but it's interesting, and mostly interesting not somuch in the change from 3.0 to 3.3, where, if you're learning,there's a learning experience on how to get this.

But the fact that somehow, we've got 9 to 10 million people thatwe're trying to cram into those 3 million jobs. And that to me islike trying to pour a quart of milk into an eight-ounce cup.

Something doesn't fit. If we've got 3 million vacancies out thereand 9 million people, not to count the unemployed, the part-timeemployed, we've got a shortage of jobs.

Is that right? Does that make sense?Mr. Galvin. Well, again, we don't have much experience with

the relationship between these levels of openings and the relation-ship of the employment levels.

Representative Stark. But if that's right, then we're short 6million jobs somewhere, roughly.

Right? We've got roughly 10 million people looking, or 9.8, andyou've got roughly 3 million openings, as I look at it-this is hypo-thetical, but doesn't that say that we've got about three times asmany people unemployed as we have jobs available, if your figuresare right?

Mr. Galvin. That's the relative size of the numbers. There willalways be some search unemployment, people, when they leavejobs, will take some time to find other jobs.

Representative Stark. There's entropy in the system. I under-stand that.

But I just wanted to get some order of magnitude here. So thata couple hundred-thousand jobs doesn't make a real big dent inthat discrepancy of somewhere around 6 million jobs.

And that, Mr. Chairman, is what I was alluding to in my openingremarks, is that there doesn't seem to be a program, other than taxcuts, to deal with the 6 million people, or, if poetic license, 5. Buta big number of people who are looking for work for whom open-ings don't exist.

Thank you.Chairman Bennett. Thank you.Mr. Ryan.Representative Ryan. Thank you.Commissioner, I wanted to go back to the difference between the

two surveys because that, too, is very fascinating to me. A coupleof questions.

Since the household survey counts the self-employed and thepayroll survey seems not to do that, is the payroll survey missinga significant development in the labor markets? Question numberone.

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Question number two: compared with the results of all the otherindicators we've been getting over the past week-and we've gottenquite a few, and most of them are pretty good-which employmentsurvey, in your opinion, has been more consistent with other eco-nomic indicators as they interact with those?

Commissioner Utgoff. The question about self-employment, weknow from the household survey, we know how many people areself-employed, and you can correct for that in comparing the house-hold and payroll series.

Self-employment has been up about a half-million, a little morethan half-a-million over the last year. And that accounts for muchof the difference over the last year.

But the difference since November 2001 has been greater thanthat when the economy started at the trough of the recession. It'smore difficult to explain the difference since then.

Representative Ryan. Would self-employment be the largestpiece of the puzzle, so to speak, to explain this anomaly, this hugedivergence between these two indicators, or these two measure-ments?

Commissioner Utgoff. In the last year, that's been the mostdiscrepancy.

Representative Ryan. OK. What about a trend? Or looking atthe other indicators, which one seems to be a little more consistentwith the other indicators?

And do you see a trend emerging now that we have Septemberand October data, which seem to be moving very much in the samedirection, building momentum? Do you see a trend emerging?

Commissioner Utgoff. The BLS measures current conditions.Representative Ryan. I know.Commissioner Utgoff. We don't really predict what future con-

ditions will be.Representative Ryan. And you're not willing to take note of

something that looks to be like a trend?Commissioner Utgoff. There have been 3 months of job in-

creases.Representative Ryan. OK. Manufacturing-that's the other

quick question, while I still have some time.Now the big knock that you hear rhetorically between the payroll

survey and the household survey is it's really people losing theirjobs in manufacturing and going over to the service sector.

I think that pretty much describes what some people are saying.Is there evidence of that?, number one. Number two: are the

manufacturing sector employment losses unique to this country, oris it indicative of a worldwide trend that's occurring in many coun-tries around the world where factory employment and manufac-turing employment is down, perhaps due to productivity?

So is it a unique trend to America or is it a worldwide trend?And is the claim valid that the difference between these two sur-veys indicates that people working in higher-paying manufacturingjobs are losing those jobs and going to service jobs? Whether they'rehigher- or lower-paying, we don't know.

But is there a lot of validity to that claim?

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Commissioner Utgoff. No, that wouldn't be correct because thepayroll survey picks up people in both the manufacturing and inthe service industries.

So that a shift would not affect the total numbers.Representative Ryan. That's helpful. Thank you.What about worldwide versus America trends?Commissioner Utgoff. A decline in manufacturing employment

has been widespread throughout the developed countries.Representative Ryan. So the decline is worldwide. Is that pret-

ty much a productivity story?Commissioner Utgoff. Yes, the decline in manufacturing em-

ployment for many developed countries is a productivity story.Representative Ryan. OK. I think that's all I have.Chairman Bennett. Senator Reed.Senator Reed. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.Thank you, Commissioner. How does the current level of non-

farm payroll employment compare to the level at the start of therecession in March, 2001?

Commissioner Utgoff. It's roughly 2.4 million jobs.Senator Reed. Less, today.Commissioner Utgoff. Yes.Senator Reed. And we've been now about 31 months in declin-

ing jobs.So today's news is good news. But the question I think we all

have is, is it sufficient to begin replacing simply the jobs that we'velost over these last 31 months? Just as importantly, are we poten-tially generating new jobs because of new entrants into the laborforce?

I think Secretary Snow talked about 200,000 jobs a month, whichis a revision downward of his previous suggestion. We grew about124,000 jobs this month.

Commissioner Utgoff. 126,000.Senator Reed. 126,000. So we're falling short of enough jobs to

begin to basically fill the gap.Is that correct?Commissioner Utgoff. Yes.Senator Reed. So it's good news. But in context, we've got such

a long way to go to rebuild employment, that we're not over thehump yet by any stretch of the imagination, even by SecretarySnow's calculations.

Is that accurate?Commissioner Utgoff. Well, Secretary Snow's calculations

would be that about 200,000 jobs a month is more than is neededto reduce the unemployment rate. You need about 125,000 to about150,000 jobs a month to reduce the unemployment rate.

Senator Reed. And we had 126,000 new jobs, so there's a slightreduction this month. This month.

Could you comment on the participation rates, the trends, be-cause information that I have suggests that there is a growingnumber of people not participating in the labor force, therefore, notbeing counted as unemployed technically, but certainly not withemployment.

Can you comment on that?

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Commissioner Utgoff. Well, participation rates have declinedabout 1 percent since the peak of the cycle.

Participation rates tend to weaken during a recession and thentend to strengthen during the recovery period.

Senator Reed. But as these participation rates strengthen, andcorrect me, then you have more people looking for jobs. And essen-tially, that could be a break on the unemployment rate going down.

Am I correct, as more people enter the force?Commissioner Utgoff. Well, when the economy is at a level

state, an increase in the participation rate will tend to put upwardpressure on the unemployment rate.

But the relationship is if jobs are growing faster than the laborforce is growing, then the unemployment rate will still decline.

And what you see in practice is that during periods of recovery,employment increases faster than the labor force. And the reversein a recession.

And during the late 1990s, for instance, there was a strong in-crease in the participation rate and the unemployment rate wentdown.

Senator Reed. Do you anticipate that happening in the monthsahead? Do you have any sense of that?

Commissioner Utgoff. No.Senator Reed. And that's because you haven't sampled it or be-

cause the data is unclear, or you don't do it?Commissioner Utgoff. The BLS does not make projections.Senator Reed. Well, again, I think this is good news today. But

the struggle is not over. We have a long way to go to replace 212million jobs that were lost in the last 31 months.

And there are still some variables, one of which is the participa-tion rate, which is unclear yet. You look backwards, but you don'tlook forward.

And so, again, I think we should take some comfort from thenumbers, but not satisfaction that the job is done.

I guess the other question I would raise in terms of-what wouldthe unemployment rate be if the participation rate had stayed thesame rather than changed?

Would we have had higher unemployment numbers?Commissioner Utgoff. That's unclear because the people who

participate in the labor force, you have to ask how many of thembecome unemployed and how many of them go straight into em-ployment.

So you really can't say what the unemployment rate would be ifthe participation rate stayed the same.

Senator Reed. And the final question, the reports of significantproductivity increases, which raises perhaps in my mind-it mightnot be accurate in terms of the statistics or the models-sometimesit's the result of a replacement of workers by machines, computers,et cetera.

If productivity grows dramatically, does that take the pressureoff hiring? Does that mean that companies, because of mechaniza-tion, computerization, new techniques, that they can still have im-pressive gains in their bottom line without hiring more people?

Commissioner Utgoff. In the short run, productivity can putdownward pressure on jobs.

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But in the long run, productivity increases are what's needed foreconomic growth and for employment growth.

So it's a question of whether we're talking about the short-runor the long term.

Senator Reed. How would you define the short run?Commissioner Utgoff. In the matter of years.Senator Reed. Years.Commissioner Utgoff. Yes.Senator Reed. So that there is the possibility, unclear yet, that

because of the significant productivity increases, which might bedriven by capital investment rather than employment, that thatcould be another downward pressure on employment.

Commissioner Utgoff. That's correct.Senator Reed. Thank you very much, Commissioner. Thank

you.Chairman Bennett. Mr. Putnam.Representative Putnam. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.I'd like to follow up on the productivity line. To what degree do

we attribute the gains in productivity to structural changes in theeconomy like the continued advances in information technology, thecontinued automation of manufacturing?

And to what degree are they more temporal than structural inthat people are fearful of their jobs so that there is some angst andtherefore, this emotional productivity that is derived that is notsustainable, to what degree are the productivity gains structuralversus temporal?

Commissioner Utgoff. I can't answer that question. I have nodata to answer that question.

Representative Putnam. We don't know, then, we don't havea good sense then of what is driving these productivity gains.

Commissioner Utgoff. Well, there have been strong increasesin output and it has been suggested that this was due to a heavyinvestment in IT technology in the late 1990s.

Representative Putnam. The IT technology has been some-thing that you and Mr. Greenspan and others have attributed tre-mendous productivity gains to for a number of years now.

Do you have a sense of how long we can ride that wave? Howlong will the IT improvements continue to fuel the productivity?

Is that a long-term structural increase in productivity that willbe with us for some time, or are we on the backside of the IT pro-ductivity curve and we need to find the next big thing?

Commissioner Utgoff. I really can't answer that question. ButI would note that business investment has been up.

Representative Putnam. OK. What's the regional nature-isthere a regional nature to the employment numbers?

And if you would elaborate on who's winning and who's losing?And is there a regional nature to the productivity?

Commissioner Utgoff. We don't have regional measures on pro-ductivity. But the changes in employment have been widespreadthroughout the country.

Mr. Galvin. I'll search for that.[Pause.]

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Representative Putnam. While you're doing that, give mesome sense of the historical unemployment average since WorldWar II.

What is the average unemployment rate in this country in thepost-war economy?

Commissioner Utgoff. Can I get back to you on that?Representative Putnam. I'm striking out here. Give me this

sense.There used to be a number that was considered an unemploy-

ment rate that was largely considered full employment.Has that number shifted over the last several decades?Commissioner Utgoff. Well, for a while unemployment rates in

the area of 5 percent were considered what you would call the nat-ural rate of unemployment.

The experience in the late 1990s has called that into question.Representative Putnam. But up until the mid-1990s, that was

largely considered the natural number.Commissioner Utgoff. Yes.Representative Putnam. And the unemployment today is

what?Commissioner Utgoff. 6 percent.Representative Putnam. 6 percent.Commissioner Utgoff. Yes.Representative Putnam. So a percent over what, until re-

cently, may have been considered the standard natural unemploy-ment rate in the country.

Commissioner Utgoff. Right.Representative Putnam. Thank you. Have you had any luck,

Mr. Galvin?Mr. Galvin. Well, I've got the unemployment rate with me back

to 1956. I don't have averages over that period.You asked for the long-term unemployment average back to

World War II.Representative Putnam. Well, the 1950s will do. You're still

way beyond my time, so-[Laughter.]Mr. Galvin. 1950s, it was in the 4.2 percent vicinity in 1956.Representative Putnam. OK. And let me go back to the Com-

missioner, if I may, just for a final question.Does your household survey, and this is something that the

Chairman and Mr. Ryan have gotten into extensively. Do you feelthat it adequately captures independent contractors and the self-employed and the budding small businesses?

Is it really an adequate model to capture those folks?Commissioner Utgoff. It does capture those categories of work-

ers.Representative Putnam. OK. Thank you very much.Thank you, Mr. Chairman.Chairman Bennett. Mr. Hill.Representative Hill. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Thank you,

Commissioner, for being here.I want to get into some of the ways of how you conduct your

household survey.

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Can you kind of explain how you do it? Do you contract it out?Do you do it in-house?

Commissioner Utgoff. The Census Bureau.conducts a survey ofhouseholds under contract to BLS.

Representative Hill. What kind of questions are you asking?Commissioner Utgoff. There are a number of questions on the

survey.Did you search for work in the last 4 weeks? If not, do you want

a job? And it just goes through many categories of labor force sta-tus.

Representative Hill. And what's the sample?Commissioner Utgoff. The sample is about 60,000 households

a month.Representative Hill. OK. I want to get into what-by the way,

Mr. Chairman, I am encouraged by this data here. I'm one Demo-crat who hopes that this economy is going to be recovering.

I'm from Indiana. And we've lost a lot of jobs in my District. Andin particular, we've lost a lot of manufacturing jobs.

In your survey, as Congressman Ryan was talking about earlier,we have had a loss in this last month of manufacturing jobs.

And the question I have for you, do we know what kind of jobsthese are, these manufacturing jobs, that have been lost and weare continuing to lose?

Commissioner Utgoff. The manufacturing losses have beenthroughout subsectors of the manufacturing industry. They havebeen, for part of this last 2 years, concentrated in durable goods,and in other things like textiles.

Representative Hill. OK. The reason why I ask you about howyou conduct your survey, do you ask questions as to what kind ofmanufacturing job a person had that they lost?

Commissioner Utgoff. The payroll survey, the other survey,goes to employers. And they are classified under a system that tellsyou what industries they are in so that you can group them anddescribe them.

So we don't ask the people what industries they're in. We ask theemployers.

Representative Hill. OK. What I'm trying to get at, Commis-sioner, is I'm trying to determine whether or not these manufac-turing jobs are going to come back.

Is there any way when you're asking your questions, can you de-termine whether or not there is the possibility-what I'm trying toget at, are these permanently lost jobs or are they jobs that someday we can regain?

Do you have any idea when you're asking your questions?Commissioner Utgoff. The BLS doesn't project activities in the

future. But I can say that since the 1950s, and even before that,manufacturing's share of employment has declined fairly steadily.

Representative Hill. And you said earlier that this is notunique just to the United States, that this is worldwide.

Commissioner Utgoff. In most developed countries.Representative Hill. How about non-developed countries?Commissioner Utgoff. Well, in some non-developed countries,

manufacturing has increased.Representative Hill. Could you cite some of those countries?

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Commissioner Utgoff. We don't produce information on manu-facturing or any other jobs in developing countries.

Representative Hill. OK.Senator Sarbanes. China, obviously, one would think. Just the

man in the street would say China, wouldn't he?Representative Hill. Yes, they would.Commissioner Utgoff. Well, the conventional wisdom and the

anecdotal evidence seems to be that China has had a very large in-crease in manufacturing jobs.

Senator Sarbanes. Right.Commissioner Utgoff. But again, we don't measure those.Representative Hill. Commissioner, what I'm trying to get a

feel for is these jobs in manufacturing that are being reported lostevery month, I'm trying to get a feel for whether or not they areever going to be coming back. Or are they lost forever?

And what I take it, and in your data that you collect, you can'tmake that determination.

Commissioner Utgoff. No, our data is for current and previousperiods.

The long-term trend has been that manufacturing as a share ofemployment has gone down.

Representative Hill. OK. Congressman Ryan was also talkingabout the shift from manufacturing jobs into the service sector,that people who have lost their manufacturing job that are now inthe service sector.

Do we have any idea what difference in wages that person is ex-perience? Is it a decrease in wages? An increase in wages?

Do you ask that question in your surveys?Mr. Galvin. We do not track on a current basis employees from

one job to another job. We could get you information after the hear-ing about average salary levels in the service sector versus themanufacturing sector.

Representative Hill. OK. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.[Response of Mr. John Galvin to Representative Hill appears in

the Submissions for the Record on page 60.]Chairman Bennett. Senator Sessions.Senator Sessions. Mr. Chairman, I'll pass.Chairman Bennett. All right.Senator Sarbanes.Senator Sarbanes. Well, thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.

Commissioner, welcome. It's nice to see you again.I want to take just a moment to address the subject you were ad-

dressing with Congressman Putnam on the concept of NAIRU, theNonaccelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment.

A number of people don't accept that concept, including AlanGreenspan, who has testified about that at some length.

And the figure has been all over the lot, depending on who's in-voking it, and for what purpose. But it's very clear that in the re-cent past, we experienced 4 percent unemployment without an in-flation problem. And that led everyone to sort of revise their views.And of course, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve spoke at greatlength about the marked increase in productivity.

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The Humphrey-Hawkins bill had a 4-percent unemploymentrate. So it was premised on the view that we could get down to thatrate before we encountered an inflation problem.

Everyone said, oh, it can't be done, and then of course, we didit.

And I just want to put that into the history bank, as it were, be-cause the recent past, at least, and earlier times, going back somenumber of years, have had unemployment down in the 4-percentrange without an inflation problem.

So if one adopts this concept, and I'm not arguing for adoptingit, I just want to address it-the non-accelerating inflation rate ofunemployment-that would suggest that we could go down to 4percent and not get an inflation problem.

I just want to add that for the record.Now I want to address this morning the long-term unemploy-

ment situation, which is an issue I'm quite interested in becauseit directly relates to whether we should extend unemployment ben-efits again, as we have done in previous economic down-turns, andwhether the increase in jobs we see this month is adequate to, ineffect, put that problem on the shelf.

My own strongly held view is that it is not, and I want to tryto walk through this problem with you.

We define the long-term unemployed as those unemployed formore than 26 weeks and continuing to look for work.

Is that right?Commissioner Utgoff. That's right.Senator Sarbanes. How many such individuals were there in

October?Commissioner Utgoff. It was about 23 percent of the unem-

ployed, 2 million persons.Senator Sarbanes. 2 million.Commissioner Utgoff. A little more than 2 million.Senator Sarbanes. How many long-term unemployed workers

were there a year ago?Commissioner Utgoff. 1.7 million.Senator Sarbanes. So we've gone from 1.7 to 2 million unem-

ployed.In January of 2001, how many long-term unemployed were

there?Commissioner Utgoff. 660,000.Senator Sarbanes. So since January of 2001, we've gone from

660,000 long-term unemployed-people out of work for more than26 weeks and looking for work-and we're now at 2 million.

Is that correct?Commissioner Utgoff. Yes.Senator Sarbanes. So the number has tripled over that period

of time.Commissioner Utgoff. That's correct.Senator Sarbanes. OK. Now, what percentage of the total un-

employed who are looking for work are long-term unemployedworkers?

In other words, if we take the unemployed workers, people look-ing for work, what percentage of that are long-term unemployed?

Commissioner Utgoff. 23 percent.

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Senator Sarbanes. 23 percent. What was that percentage ayear ago?

Commissioner Utgoff. 20.5 percent.Senator Sarbanes. So it's gone from 20.5 percent to 23 percent

since last year.Is that correct?Commissioner Utgoff. That's correct.Senator Sarbanes. Now, historically, that's a pretty high figure,

isn't it?Commissioner Utgoff. Relatively, yes.Senator Sarbanes. And it's been fairly high over most of this

year, hasn't it?What's the figure roughly been over the course of this year?Commissioner Utgoff. It's been in the low 20s, 22 to 23.Senator Sarbanes. I've been informed that the last time the fig-

ure of long-term unemployed was this high for such a continuousperiod-in other words, 21-, 22-, 23-percent-was 20 years ago, in1983.

Would that be correct?Commissioner Utgoff. Yes.Senator Sarbanes. Now what's the median duration of unem-

ployment for all unemployed workers?Commissioner Utgoff. 10.3 weeks.Senator Sarbanes. The median duration of unemployment for

all unemployed workers?Commissioner Utgoff. Is 10.3 weeks.Senator Sarbanes. You're giving me the median or the aver-

age?Commissioner Utgoff. I was giving you the median. The aver-

age is 19.1 weeks.Senator Sarbanes. OK. 19.1 weeks. And how long has it been

above 19 weeks, the average?Commissioner Utgoff. Since April.Senator Sarbanes. And am I correct that we have to go back

about 20 years to find comparable figures in terms of the averageduration of unemployed, for all unemployed workers?

Commissioner Utgoff. Yes.Senator Sarbanes. Would you take issue with me if I was to

say that the issue of the long-term unemployed is as serious nowas it has been in 20 years?

Commissioner Utgoff. Yes. The percent of the unemployed whoare out of work for 27 weeks or longer has increased and is ap-proximately the way it was in the early 1980s.

Senator Sarbanes. Mr. Chairman, I've gone through this stepby step because I think it's very important to understand these fig-ures.

I still remain very seriously concerned about the condition of thelong-term unemployed. I think we picked up some jobs and I'mpleased to see that.

The rate has dropped a tenth of a point.Have you seen any sign that people are coming back into the

labor market? We have this phenomenon, apparently, that whenunemployment goes up, people drop out of the labor market.

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But when they think that employment is picking up again, theycome back into the labor market. As a consequence, the unemploy-ment rate may in fact go up or not go down markedly, even thoughwe're picking up jobs because more people are coming back in look-ing for jobs.

Do you see any signs of that phenomenon?Commissioner Utgoff. The participation rate tends to weaken

in a recession and then to strengthen in a recovery.Senator Sarbanes. Right.Commissioner Utgoff. An increase in the participation rate

might put pressure on the unemployment rate.But what you can see over the long term, as an economy recov-

ers, that employment increases faster than the labor force. So yousee increasing participation with a declining unemployment rate.

Senator Sarbanes. Right.Commissioner Utgoff. As we saw in the late 1990s, where the

participation rate increased, but the unemployment rate wentdown as well.

Senator Sarbanes. Yes. Do you see increases in the participa-tion rate taking place yet?

Commissioner Utgoff. No, we do not see any increases in theparticipation rate.

Senator Sarbanes. Do you anticipate that there would be in-creases in the participation rate on the basis of past history?

Commissioner Utgoff. Yes. I would say that in a recovery pe-riod, participation rates tend to increase.

Senator Sarbanes. So that the job production you will need inorder to bring down the unemployment rate would be greater inorder to encompass or accommodate an increase in the participa-tion rate.

Would that be correct?Commissioner Utgoff. Yes.Senator Sarbanes. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.Chairman Bennett. Thank you.Senator Sarbanes. Obviously, as we discuss extending the un-

employment insurance issue, I'll be referring back to these figures.Chairman Bennett. I understand that and I think it's a useful

exercise to go through because this recovery, while it looks verystrong in some of the macro numbers, still has some problems con-nected with it in the areas that you are describing.

Commissioner Utgoff, to continue to flog the same horse becauseI want to have as accurate numbers as possible, is it possible thatthe productivity rate is overstated, because if the payroll survey istoo low-and we're talking about the gap again-but if the payrollsurvey is too low, that would artificially change the equation andsuggest that the productivity number is too high.

Commissioner Utgoff. That's correct, if the payroll survey wereincorrect.

Chairman Bennett. So if we start to get increased jobs, eventhough the productivity number is higher than the GDP number,wouldn't that suggest that there has to be some mathematical ad-justment to the payroll number?

I'm back to the Greenspanesque example of these are all of theparts of the equation. And typically, you say if productivity is high-

20

er than GDP, you're going to lose jobs. And GDP has to be higherthan productivity in order to create new jobs.

But if we're in a situation where the productivity number ishigher than the GDP number, and we're still creating jobs, doesn'tthat say that the payroll number has to be adjusted?

Commissioner Utgoff. Well, it would also depend on the hours.But in general, you need more GDP growth than productivity

growth to create jobs.Chairman Bennett. Yes. But I'm saying, we've had this last

quarter where the GDP number was 7.2. We've got a productivitynumber of 8.1, which would suggest a loss of jobs. And yet, for thelast 3 months, we've had an increase in jobs.

Commissioner Utgoff. But that's for-Chairman Bennett. A very short period of time. I understand.Commissioner Utgoff. The quarter that's covered is before the

job growth began.This is for the third quarter.Chairman Bennett. Yes. But the increase in jobs was in Au-

gust, September and October. And that's the third quarter.Don't I have that right?[Pause.]It's July, August, and September. OK. Well, the July increase

was the smallest increase we have. So, OK.So we have August and September. So all right. So you're saying,

third quarter, August and September, you've still got to get Octo-ber's numbers. And the GDP numbers, you do have October's num-bers.

Commissioner Utgoff. No. I'm saying that there was not a com-plete overlap between the 3 months where employment increasedand the quarter from which productivity and GDP were measured.

Chairman Bennett. So there's 1-month difference.Commissioner Utgoff. Yes.Chairman Bennett. Yes, OK.Senator Sarbanes. On-the-job numbers or on the productivity

and GDP growth numbers?Commissioner Utgoff. The job numbers are more current than

the GDP and productivity numbers.Senator Sarbanes. OK. Thank you.Chairman Bennett. Yes, all right. Jobs fell in July, grew in Au-

gust, September and October.Commissioner Utgoff. Yes.Chairman Bennett. OK. And August, September and October

are the third quarter.But you're saying the GDP numbers are lagging? Help me under-

stand this. I thought I had it and then-Commissioner Utgoff. July, August and September are the

third quarter.Chairman Bennett. OK. Sure. Sorry about that. All right.Let's talk about the manufacturing sector. You said that unem-

ployment-pardon me employment in manufacturing has beengoing down historically now for half a century or so.

Commissioner Utgoff. Yes.Chairman Bennett. Not only in the United States but through-

out the developed world.

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Commissioner Utgoff. It hasn't been going down consistently.But what I said was that manufacturing, as a share of total em-ployment, has been going down steadily since the 1940s or 1950s.

Chairman Bennett. OK. But output has been going up.Commissioner Utgoff. Yes, over that period.Chairman Bennett. So the long-term trend is that employment

as a share of the economy has been going down while output hasbeen going up.

I think that's important to note because the employment has notbeen going down because the jobs have been exported. The employ-ment has been going down in the long-term trend because produc-tivity has been going up.

And whether it's robots or computers or simply better manage-ment, just-in-time inventories, things of that kind, we've been con-tinually as a society squeezing costs out of manufacturing and see-ing the output go up with fewer and fewer workers.

And of course, long term, that's a trend we want to encourage.When I discuss this sometimes with student groups, I say, if you

look at history, at one point in our country, when Thomas Jeffersonwas President, agriculture was almost the entire economic activityof the country, with manufacturing being a very small percentage.

Agriculture has continued to shrink in terms of the amount ofemployment in agriculture, and yet, our output in agriculture hasgone up very dramatically as we become more and more efficientin the way we farm.

And agriculture now as a percentage of jobs is a relatively smallpart of the economy. But agriculture, as part of GDP, continues tobe a very significant factor.

And I think it's a sign of the growth and maturity of an economythat the same thing that happened to agriculture is now happeningto manufacturing. And it's becoming a smaller percentage of theeconomy, but the overall output continues to go up as we becomemore and more efficient.

And when people say, yes, but service jobs are flipping ham-burgers at McDonald's, service jobs are writing software for Micro-soft at six figures a year.

And that is part of the reason why the manufacturing sector con-tinues to go through the changes that it does.

Do you have any reaction to that?Commissioner Utgoff. I think your analogy between farming

and manufacturing is a fair one.Chairman Bennett. Thank you.Mr. Ryan.Senator Sarbanes. Do you have any figures, Commissioner,

that verify how much of the loss in manufacturing jobs is becauseof the increase in productivity and how much of it is because man-ufacturing jobs have moved overseas and the products that we usedto produce here are now being produced over there and importedinto the country?

Do you have any analysis on that?Commissioner Utgoff. No, we don't have any such analysis.Senator Sarbanes. So we don't know how much is from-at

least you don't know how much is from one cause as opposed to theother cause.

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Commissioner Utgoff. No.Chairman Bennett. Mr. Ryan.Representative Ryan. I was very interested in the last dialog

that the Chairman just had. I want to just go down the same path,if I could.

Third-quarter growth, July through September, gave us 7.2 per-cent economic growth. The productivity numbers are from when,exactly?

Commissioner Utgoff. Same time.Representative Ryan. Same time, right?Commissioner Utgoff. Yes.Representative Ryan. OK. So the rule of thumb is you have to

outpace the growth in productivity with GDP to get jobs back inthe economy.

That's pretty much a general rule of thumb.Is it not the case at the beginning of an economic expansion that

productivity is typically over-estimated because firms are expand-ing and they're working more hours. The denominator and the pro-ductivity formula is usually under-valued because that's not beingcaught up in the payroll survey or in the other surveys?

Isn't it the case that, in the beginning of an expansion, you don'tcapture all of the additional jobs or the additional hours worked?And so, you actually over-estimate productivity in some cases.

Therefore, the required level of economic growth that is neededto get jobs back into the economy may indeed have to be lower thanwhat we currently expect.

Is that not typically a trend?Commissioner Utgoff. We have no evidence about any con-

sistent problem in estimation.Representative Ryan. OK. Let me ask it this way, then.When we're measuring productivity, we do output divided by

workers and the hours that they work.Correct?Commissioner Utgoff. Yes.Representative Ryan. OK. And when we're seeing that jobs are

increasing, when we have economic growth at a level that appearsto be lower than the level of productivity, that begs a few ques-tions, does it not, as to whether or not the required level of eco-nomic growth to get jobs back into this economy is sufficient ornot?

So doesn't it beg some questions about what really is the produc-tivity number in this economy, given that the first numbers on pro-ductivity are so high that you would think that we have to groweven faster than we are to add jobs. But when we're actually add-ing, according to the payroll survey, 126,000 jobs to this economyin this last month, it raises a question about whether in fact, pro-ductivity growth may not be as high.

I hope that productivity growth is high because that's very goodfor the long-term standard of living for this country. It's good forwages. It's good for our standard of living in so many ways.

But my basic question is, is the Greenspan theory playing itselfout here that our productivity numbers may not be as high, giventhat we are really producing some jobs now at these rates?

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Commissioner Utgoff. The productivity numbers when we pub-lish them at first are the best job that we can do with availableinformation.

I'm not aware of any consistent revisions that would indicate thepattern that you're talking about.

Representative Ryan. OK. And do you not see any unique be-havior in these statistics that suggests that? Not a trend, but doyou see anything different?

Mr. Galvin.Mr. Galvin. Our numbers show from the productivity program,

non-farm business output rose 8.8 percent in the third quarter,which is slightly higher than what GDP rose in the third quarter.

Representative Ryan. I know it's not an apples-to-apples kindof a thing. But it seems that, with the kind of growth rate thatwe're getting in GDP, and the productivity gains-ideally, we wanthigh GDP and high productivity, which will get us really good jobs,and a very much higher standard of living.

And it seems that that is exactly what's occurring right now.Would that be an accurate statement?

Commissioner Utgoff. Both the economy and the productivitynumbers are growing.

Representative Ryan. All right. Well, I won't go down this roadany more, but I'd like to talk with you another time about gettingdeeper into these statistics to see what the productivity story is, infact, and the link between GDP and productivity and what is thatmagic intersection of the numbers to produce jobs in this economy?

Commissioner Utgoff. We be happy to answer your questions.Representative Ryan. Right. Thanks.Chairman Bennett. Mr. Putnam.Representative Putnam. Pass, Mr. Chairman.Chairman Bennett. Senator Sessions.Senator Sessions. Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and

it is great to be here.Certainly, productivity I've always thought was good. And we

definitely believe that increased jobs is good. So when you havethem both, that's better than the alternative, I think, Mr. Ryan, forsure.

I was looking at the Reuters article about first-time unemploy-ment claims, which I think is pretty stunning to me, looking at thenumbers.

They report that initial claims-that is, somebody who's losttheir job and made their first claim for unemployment-fell in theweek of November 1st, 43,000 to 348,000, which results in, it seemsto me, about a 12-percent decline in first-time claims for unemploy-ment.

Have you discussed that earlier today?Commissioner Utgoff. No, I haven't.Senator Sessions. Of course, that pays off, does it not, in the

weeks and months to come.In other words, if a person making those unemployment claims,

they may be on unemployment for months before they get anotherjob.

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But if you have a net kind of drop, what would you share withus about that? How do you see those numbers and the importanceof them?

Commissioner Utgoff. To smooth out the series because it hasvariation in it, you look at the 4-week moving average of theclaims.

That tends to be a leading indicator of the unemployment rate.Senator Sessions. This is a pretty hard number, is it not? In

the surveys, people can complain about it. But do you have con-fidence in the accuracy of these reported claims for unemploymentcompensation, that seems to me to be a hard number that's notmuch dispute about.

Commissioner Utgoff. Well, the BLS does not collect thosenumbers.

Senator Sessions. But they come from states.Commissioner Utgoff. Yes.Senator Sessions. Who maintain the unemployment compensa-

tion payments.Commissioner Utgoff. Yes.Senator Sessions. Well, it seems to me that those numbers are

based on actual checks being paid by the states and ought to beaccurate, and I've heard little dispute about it.

I think that's good news.And I won't beat the dead horse about the good news of produc-

tivity and job increases. That means, it seems to me, at least itmeans that something good is happening if you can sustain a 7-per-cent or more productivity increase and also a nice job increase atthe same time.

Jobs are critical to us, Mr. Chairman, and there are a lot ofthings that impact that. We think about them. If we allow energyprices to continue to soar-we have an energy bill right now thatwill allow some things to happen-I think we could contain the costof energy increasing productivity.

We have some efforts to reduce litigation costs on American in-dustry that's at least double or more than that of the rest of theworld.

We've got environmental costs that we hold very dear. But ifwe're passing laws or regulations that impose environmental coststhat are not producing benefits for the environment, then that isa burden on our productivity that makes us more difficult to com-pete in manufacturing around the world.

Fair trade is important. I think we've not always been effectivein insisting on fairness in trade.

I'm concerned about immigration. Illegal immigrants are here bythe millions and they take jobs. And the numbers I saw in thepaper today, there were 2.3 million, I believe, immigrants in 2001and half of those were reported to be illegal.

I don't know if those numbers are correct or if they're being con-firmed. But that does take jobs out there.

And of course, the tax burden on private industry is significant.I am really intensely interested in the job question. I think

Americans need to be able to have a decent job and we need to en-sure that we take policies that protect that. The unemploymentrate is not extraordinarily high by the worst of times.

25

Six percent-I guess it's dropped down to six now. That's still toohigh. So we're concerned about it.

And Mr. Chairman, you've been doing an excellent job with thesehearings. I'm so sorry I was tied up in this Medicare conferencethis morning. I'm trying to get some information on that bill, thatI could not be with you.

We appreciate your leadership and your insight into these num-bers.

I thank you again and yield my time back.Chairman Bennett. Thank you. I'm going to turn to Senator

Sarbanes again. But I've just come across some information that Ithink would answer a question that the Senator has raised.

This is a report that appeared in The Wall Street Journal on the20th of October of this year.

"Factory Employment Is Falling Worldwide", is the headline.Study of 20 big economies finds 22 million jobs lost. Even Chinashows decline.

This is very interesting. Quoting from the article, it says:Contrary to conventional U.S. beliefs, research found that Amer-

ican manufacturing workers weren't the biggest losers. The U.S.lost about 2 million manufacturing jobs in the 1995 to 2002 period,an 11-percent drop.

Brazil had a 20 percent decline. Japan's factory workforce shed16 percent of its jobs, while China's was down 15 percent.

The Director of Global Economic Research at Alliance, JosephCarson, says that the reasons for the declines are similar acrossthe globe. Gains in technology and competitive pressure haveforced factories to become more efficient, allowing them to boostoutput with far fewer workers.

Indeed, even as manufacturing employment declined, said Mr.Carson, global industrial output rose more than 30 percent.

And here is the chart that shows the countries that lost the mostand the countries that gained the most. I am interested that thecountry that gained the most manufacturing employment in the pe-riod of 1995 to 2002 was Spain, with 24 percent increase, followedby Canada, with 22 percent increase.

Then the Philippines with 6.9, Taiwan, 4.7, Mexico, 1.1 percent,Malaysia, 1 percent, the Netherlands, 0.9, Australia, 0.3.

India is the median at zero.And then the losses start: Italy, France-France lost 1.9, Ger-

many, 5.6, Sweden, 6.9, the United States, 11.3, South Korea, 11.6,Russia, 11.7, the United Kingdom, 12.4, China, 15.3, Japan, 16.1,and Brazil, 19.9.

This is a very interesting survey that perhaps challenges conven-tional wisdom in both parties and in the media at large.

And I will be happy to share the hard copy with Senator Sar-banes or anyone else who is interested.

Senator Sessions. Mr. Chairman, on that point, it soundscounter-intuitive, but if we develop new technology so that 90 peo-ple can do what 100 did the previous year, I'll ask your wisdom onthis. It appears what happens is that those 10 people don't do noth-ing. They do something productive. Whereas before, if you could doit with 90, then they really weren't productive because the workcould be done for less people.

26

And that tends to produce growth in the economy, it appears. I'venever quite understood it, but it surprises me how we continue todown-size our work force all over America and it's more productive.But the net result is our unemployment rates are not exceedinglyhigh by historical terms.

Chairman Bennett. Well, Senator Sarbanes has pointed outthat the historical number is kind of in the eye of the beholder andit has historically been all over the place.

Senator Sessions. Well, on the percentage basis of 6percent-

Chairman Bennett. I was taught in college that 6-percent un-employment was full employment. And we've demonstrated thatthat is not true.

I think your point, Senator Sessions, about the people who losetheir jobs don't do nothing, they go off to some place else, is veryclear.

And I go back to my analogy about what happened in agricultureand what's happening in manufacturing.

Senator Sessions. That wrestles with those numbers in manu-facturing. And then it transfers work to the service sector, whichis sometimes bad for people, that the payment may not be as goodas it had been. And that certainly has occurred.

And some things develop well for them. They do exceptionallywell.

Chairman Bennett. I should, in the spirit of full disclosure,point out that there are those who dispute the numbers I've justquoted.

Particularly, and understandably, Jerry Jasinowski, President ofthe National Association of Manufacturers, says these numbers arenot right. There are other economists that support them.

But I find it an interesting study that should be part of this con-versation.

Senator Sarbanes, did you have a second round?Senator Sarbanes. Mr. Chairman, before Senator Sessions

leaves, I ought to just note that these people who he said lost theirjobs and then went off and did other things, one of the other thingsthey do is they become part of the long-term unemployed.

So it all depends on the context of your economy.In January of 2001, we had 660,000 people, long-term unem-

ployed, out of work for 27 weeks or more.Now we have 2 million. We had 1.7 million a year ago. So that's

one of the places they go to, regrettably, I might say.Mr. Chairman, I just wanted to draw out of the Commissioner

a few more figures before we close out here this morning.How many people are working part-time for economic reasons?As I understand, we have 8.8 million unemployed. Is that correct,

what you would categorize as unemployed?Commissioner Utgoff. Yes, 8.8 million people are characterized

as unemployed.Senator Sarbanes. All right. Now, how about those working

part-time for economic reasons? How many of them are there?Commissioner Utgoff. 4.8 million.

27

Senator Sarbanes. 4.8 million. And do you have any estimateon how many have dropped out of the labor force, or what's a rea-sonable number that might flow back into the labor force?

Commissioner Utgoff. We do not predict how many peoplewould come back into the labor force.

Senator Sarbanes. Well, what's the participation rate rightnow?

Commissioner Utgoff. It's 66.1 percent.Senator Sarbanes. And what was it 2 or 3 years ago?Commissioner Utgoff. It's declined a percentage point since the

peak, March of 2001.Senator Sarbanes. And a percentage point translates into how

many people?Commissioner Utgoff. Today about 1.5 million.Senator Sarbanes. 1.5 million. You calculate a different unem-

ployment figure, as I recall, factoring in all of the various groupsthat are left out of the standard unemployment figure.

I know that part-time for economic reasons is one of those. Isthere another category, other categories?

Commissioner Utgoff. There's another category of discouragedworkers.

Senator Sarbanes. How many of those are there?Commissioner Utgoff. 239,000.Senator Sarbanes. What's the unemployment rate when you

take in all categories into account?Commissioner Utgoff. You mean all the categories that you

talked about?We have discouraged plus marginally attached workers. Then

you have the unemployed for part-time.Senator Sarbanes. Right. If you factor all of that in, what do

you get as the unemployment rate?Commissioner Utgoff. This is not seasonally adjusted, but it

was 9.5 percent.Senator Sarbanes. 9.5 percent. Has it been running above 10

percent this year, or is that generally where it's been?Commissioner Utgoff. In the last 3 months, it's not been above

10 percent.Senator Sarbanes. It's not been above 10 percent.Commissioner Utgoff. No.Senator Sarbanes. OK. Thank you very much.Now, Mr. Chairman, I'd like to put one other question. A number

of years ago, we worked hard, a number of us in the Congress, toget the BLS new quarters there down at the railroad station.

My question is, has that worked out OK? Are you appropriatelysituated in terms of your physical environment?

And second, is the budget you're getting from the OMB and theCongress adequate to your challenges? Or do you feel that you'rereally in any significant way constrained, fiscally constrained interms of carrying out your responsibilities?

Commissioner Utgoff. First, the Postal Square building is abeautiful building and we're very happy to be there.

As you know, the BLS was scattered throughout town beforethat. It's much better to have everybody in the same building andthe building is a very nice building.

28

Senator Sarbanes. OK. Good. It's close to the Congress, too.Whether that's a plus or minus, I don't know.[Laughter.]Commissioner Utgoff. We walk up here.[Laughter.]Senator Sarbanes. And what about your budget?Commissioner Utgoff. Our budget has been adequate. We have

not had any significant decreases in our budget.Senator Sarbanes. Do you have enough resources to do what

you have to do?Commissioner Utgoff. All of us could do more things with more

resources. But we are funded to do the research and data collectionthat we have done in the past.

Senator Sarbanes. All right. There aren't any upgrades and re-visions in indices or other measuring tools used by the BLS thatyou think need to be really addressed that would require some sortof plus-up in your resources in order to get that done?

We're always confronted with updating the various series thatyou use. Where are you on that front?

Commissioner Utgoff. In every one of our surveys and on ourreports, we always see things that we could do to make them bet-ter, and we have had some new initiatives funded in recent years.That's adequate to keep us doing the work that we have beendoing.

Senator Sarbanes. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.Chairman Bennett. Thank you very much. We appreciate your

patience as we wrestle with these issues here on the Committee.The hearing is adjourned.[Whereupon, at 11:05 a.m., the hearing was adjourned.]

Submissions for the Record

PREPARED STATEMENT OF SENATOR ROBERT F. BENNETT, CHAIRMAN

Good morning and welcome to today's employment hearing. Like virtually everyother economic statistic reported in the past month, the employment numbers re-leased today are definitely good news for the American worker. No matter how youcut it, the economy is adding new jobs at a rapid pace and will likely continue todo so for the foreseeable future.

The official payroll statistics indicate that the U.S. economy created 126,000 newjobs in the month of October, the third month in it row that payroll employmentrose. The revised numbers now indicate that 125,000 jobs were added in September.The unemployment rate declined to six percent.

The household survey reported that employment increased by an astounding441,000 in September. According to the household survey, our economy has now es-sentially replaced all of the jobs lost during the 2001 recession and the number ofjobs is now at an all-time high.

I believe that today's employment numbers, along with the steep drop in new job-less claims and the large increases in productivity and output, indicate quite clearlythat the U.S. economy is returning to a period of strong growth.

For instance, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday that productivitygrew at an annual rate of 8.1 percent in the third quarter of 2003. Some of my col-leagues tend to gnash their teeth at the high productivity growth of late, lamentingthat firms are learning how to do without workers. However, our experience in thelast 30 years tells us that periods of rapid increases in the productive capacity ofour economy are almost always accompanied by low unemployment. Increasing ourstandard of living and employment at the same time requires healthy productivitygrowth.

Today's data remind us again of the ongoing divergence between total employ-ment as measured by the two surveys conducted by the BLS. While the payroll sur-vey reports a decline of roughly 750,000 payroll jobs since the end of the recessionin November 2001, the household survey still reports nearly one-and-a-half millionnewly employed workers since then. I encourage the BLS to continue researchingthis discrepancy and welcome any additional information you might provide us onthis topic.

It is too easy for the party in power to take the blame when the economy slows,and for that reason it is all too tempting to try to take all the credit when thingsturn around. In reality, government holds little sway over the business cycle, de-spite what some may think or desire. Our economy floundered in the middle of theyear 2000 in large part due to a hangover from the high-tech boom, likely abettedby a rise in interest rates. The stagnant economy was prolonged by the 9/11 disasterand the resultant uncertainties in the Middle East, high energy prices, and the var-ious scandals in the financial markets. That our economy steadily expanded in theface of so many potentially calamitous events in succession is a testament to theability and dedication of the American worker as well as to our economic system.

That is not to say that government cannot spur the economy. The Bush tax cutsenacted in 2001 undoubtedly softened the blow of the events that befell the economyand served to make the recession shallower than it otherwise would have been, andthe tax cuts passed this year provided some needed impetus at the right time.

Dr. Utgoff, it is always a pleasure having you visit us, but we especially enjoyit when you come bearing such good news. Welcome to the Joint Economic Com-mittee, and we look forward to hearing your testimony.

(29)

30

PREPARED STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE JIM SAXTON,VICE CHAIRMAN

It is a pleasure to join in welcoming Commissioner Utgoff once again before theJoint Economic Committee.

Today's employment report is good news for American workers. Payroll employ-ment increased 126,000 in October, while the September increase was revised up-ward to 125,000. October marks the third consecutive increase in payroll employ-ment after accounting for the revised increase in August. The household measureof employment increased by 441,000 in October, while the unemployment rateslipped one-tenth of a percentage point to 6.0 percent. The improvement in the em-ployment data reported today reflects the progress made in emerging from the eco-nomic slowdown of recent years.

The economic weakness that began with the bursting of the stock market andtechnology bubbles early in 2000, followed by recession, terrorist attacks, and wars,now appears to be over. Although the economy has shown great resilience in recentyears, the unusual combination of shocks, and the investment-led nature of the eco-nomic slowdown, made the timing of the recent economic acceleration highly uncer-tain.

Consecutive declines in business investment had undermined economic growthsince the fourth quarter of 2000. However, data from recent quarters show that in-vestment and economic growth is on the rebound. The provision of tax relief in 2003,including the boosting of write-offs for investment, is widely credited for the recentstrength of the economy. The 7.2 percent growth of GDP in the third quarter of 2003indicates that this policy of tax relief has worked as intended. Recent increases inboth ISM indexes, durable goods orders, and construction show that the economicexpansion is broadly based.

As has been noted previously, the best prospect for job growth is created by astrong economic expansion. As the economy continues to grow as predicted by theBlue Chip Consensus forecast, it is reasonable to expect sizable employment gainsinto the future. Several quarters of healthy economic growth through next year, asthe Consensus forecast suggests, should bring sustained and significant growth inemployment and opportunity for American workers.

PREPARED STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE PETE STARK,RANKING MINORITY MEMBER

Thank you Chairman Bennett for holding this hearing. I would like to welcomeCommissioner Utgoff and thank her for testifying here today.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' October employment situation continued to painta disappointing labor market picture. The unemployment rate was essentially un-changed at 6.0 percent. And by any meaningful measure, the jobless recovery dragson. When we need a few hundred thousand jobs a month, only 126,000 payroll jobswere added in October. Nearly 9 million Americans remain unemployed-with over2 million out of work for 6 months or more.

This level of job creation, while better than expected, is probably not strongenough to keep up with the growing labor force, let alone erase the enormous jobsdeficit any time soon. With this rate of job growth, it will still take another 19months to climb out of the jobs hole we're in. The Democratic staff of the JEC hasestimated that, because the labor force is growing, somewhem between 135,000 and170,000 jobs per month need to be added to payrolls just to keep the unemploymentrate from rising-that's only to maintain the status quo, not reduce unemployment.

Treasury Secretary John Snow recently predicted that about 2 million payrolljobs, or roughly 200,000 jobs per month, would be created over the next 12 months.This represents a substantial scaling back of expectations from what the Adminis-tration was predicting earlier this year, and it implicitly concedes that PresidentBush's record on job creation is going to be the worst of any President since HerbertHoover.

In October, President Bush tied his father's dubious record as payroll jobs failedto return to their pre-recession level 31 months after the recession began (Chart 1).In fact, this is the only administration since Hoover's with a decline in total payrolljobs (Chart 2). We are in a deep hole in terms of job creation, and one that is farworse than in past business cycles (Chart 3). President Bush is presiding over themost persistent jobs slump since the 1930s, and he will smash-by a wide margin-the modern (post World War II) record for job creation futility currently held by hisfather.

31

Indeed, if Secretary Snow's estimate of 200,000 jobs per month proves to be ontarget, the non-farm payroll deficit of 2.4 million jobs will not be erased until Octo-ber 2004.

Average, 21 months

17 H I

31and

31 countir

28

2523

17

11

_- _ - -t -_ 2Q

1 0 . 9 3.8 3.1

2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.4

| | 0.9 I |. _;R _ 1|

-- = we-0.6

I| - -

-

Average of postwar recessions prior to 1990

-V

.. .......- .0 7 0 .. .. ,co19 I-ecesV

1990 recession

Current slowdown

35

PREPARED STATEMENT OF KATHLEEN P. UTGOFF, COMMISSIONER,BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee, I appreciate this opportunity tocomment on the labor market data we released this morning.

Non-farm payroll employment rose by 126,000 in October, following increases inAugust and September that totaled 160,000, after revision. I would note that thepayroll survey estimates for the prior 2 months are always subject to revision aswe receive reports from additional survey respondents. The increase in payroll em-ployment over the last 3 months contrasts with declines in the February-July periodthat averaged 85,000 per month. Several service industries added jobs in October.Manufacturing employment continued to decline, although at slower pace than ear-lier in the year. The unemployment rate, at 6.0 percent, was essentially unchangedover the month.

Professional and business services added 43,000 jobs in October, with gains inmany of its component industries. Employment in temporary help services contin-ued to rise and is up by 150,000 since April.

Employment in private educational services grew by 23,000 in October. Job gainsover the last 3 months have more than offset declines that occurred in June andJuly. Over the year, employment in private education expanded by 56,000. Healthcare and social assistance added 34,000 jobs, with noteworthy gains in doctors, of-fices and in child day care services.

In the leisure and hospitality sector, employment in food services and drinkingplaces rose by 23,000. Job growth in food services has picked up in recent months;since July, employment has increased by 57,000. Within retail trade, food storesadded 13,000 jobs in October. Employment in food stores was boosted by the hiringof additional workers in anticipation of strikes.

Employment in construction was little changed over the month, but the industryhas added 147,000 jobs since its most recent trough in February. In October, em-ployment in credit intermediation decreased by 10,000, reflecting the decline inmortgage refinancing activity.

Manufacturing job losses continued in October (-24,000). Declines in the sectorhave moderated in recent months, particularly in durable goods manufacturing. InOctober, both the factory workweek and overtime were unchanged.

After posting a small increase in September, employment in air transportation fellin October. Since reaching its most recent peak in March 2001, the industry haslost more than 20 percent of its jobs.

Average hourly earnings for production or non-supervisory workers, at $15.46,were essentially unchanged in October. Over the year, average hourly earnings roseby 2.4 percent.

Looking at some of the measures from our survey of households, the October un-employment rate of 6.0 percent was about the same as in September. The joblessrates for all the major worker groups showed little change over the month. About8.8 million persons were unemployed, of whom 2.0 million had been without a jobfor 27 weeks or longer. Employment as measured by our household survey rose overthe month.

In summary, non-farm payroll employment rose by 126,000 in October. Since July,employment is up by 286,000. The unemployment rate, at 6.0 percent in October,was about unchanged.

My colleagues and I would be glad to answer any questions you might have.

36

United States

fes Departmentof LaborBureau of Labor Statistics Washington, D.C. 20212

Technical information:Householddata:

Establishmenttdata.

Media contact:

(202) 691-6378http://www.bls.gov/cpsl

691-6555hlttp:/www.bls.gov/ces'

691-5902

USDL 03-675

Transmission of material in this release isembargoed until 8:30A.M. (EST),Friday, November 7, 2003.

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: OCTOBER 2003

Employment rose in October, and the unemployment rate, at 6.0 percent, was essentially unchanged, theBureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Nonfarm payroU employmentrose by 126,000 in October, following a similar increase (as revised) in September. Job gains occurred inseveral service indastries in October. Manufacturing employment continued to decline, but the rateofjobloss has moderated in recent months.

Char 1. Unerntt.,Msasov~yad.hdW.

r N-ftrber 2000 -Odco5r 2003Char 2. Nauyaro, pas .Pyosor-ton .a y sdhrtod.

0 November 2050 - siosWar ooss

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The unemployment rate, 6.0 percent, and the numberof unemployed persons, 8.8 million, were essen-tially unchanged in October. Unemployment rates forthe major worker groups-adult men (5.6 percent),adult women (5.2 percent), teenagers (17. 1 percent), whites (5.1 percent), blacks ( 11.5 percent), andHispanics or Latinos (7.2 percent)-also were little changed. The unemployment rate for Asians was6.1 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-I, A-2, and A-3.)

In October, 2.0 million unemployed persons had been looking for work for 27 weeks or longer, aboutthe same level as in September. They represented 23.0 percent of the total unemployed. (See table A-9.)

Total Emolovment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

Total employment increased by 441,000 in October to 138.0 million, seasonally adjusted. The employ-ment-populationratio edgedup to 62.2 percent The civilian labor forcewas littlechanged at 146.8 million,while the labor forceparticipation rate remained a 66.1 percent. (See table A-I.)

-t ,I

.

sol , _

. -I-/-...L-, , 1, I

- S .. -.. I .. ..~ II I I .. .. ... ... . ..v

14 '-

. I I.sco M2X O X0- W 2

37

Table A. M1lajor indica1tors of labor market activity, seasonally adjusted- _Itr i_ tZl. .S. .iUc _

Quarterly averages Monthly data Sept.-

Category 2003 2003 Oct.

if I III Aug. I Sept. | Oct. change

HOUSEHOLD DATA Labor force status

Civilian labor force................................Employment ....................................Unemployment.................................

Not in labor force..................................

All workers..........................................Adult men........................................

Adult women ..................................

Teenagers.......................................WAhite ............................................

Black or African American ...................

Hispanic or Latino ethnicity..................

ESTABLISHMENT DATA

Nonfarmn employment.............................Goods-producing '.............................

Construction................................Manufacturing; .............................

Service-providing .............................

Retail trade..................................Professional and business services.Education and health services............

Leisure and hospitality....................Govemment.................................

Total private.........................................Manufacturing...................................

Overtime.....................................

Total private..........................................

Average hourly earnings, total private..........Average weekly earnings, total private..........

146,685 146,539 146,530 146,545 146,793 248

137,638 137,559 137,625 137,573 138,014 441

9,047 8,980 8,905 8,973 8,779 -194

74,090 74,974 74.977 75,234 75,246 12

Unemployment rates

6.25.95.1

18.65.4

11.28.0

6.15.85.2

17.55.4

11.1

7.8

6.15.85.2

16.65.4

10.9

7.8

6.1

5.75.3

17.5

5.3

11.2

7.5

6.0

5.65.2

17.1

5.111.57.2

-0.1

.1

.1

-.4

-.2.3

-.3

Employment

129,984 p12 9,91 1 129,881 p13 0,0 06 p130,132 p126

22,093 p21,984 21,982 p21,96 9 p21,9

52 p-17

6,782 p6,823 6,825 p6,84 1 p6,847 p6

14,744 p14,596 14,592 p14,564 p14,5

4 0 p-24

107,891 p 1 07,927 107,899 pl08,037 p108,18

0 p143

14,981 p14,973 14,975 p14,

9 85 p15,015 p30

15,999 p16 ,080 16,054 p16,124 p16,167 p43

16,498 p16 ,532 16,541 p16,

569 p16,625 p56

12,036 p12,053 12,051 p12,0 58 p12,08 1 p23

21,495 p21,469 21,470 p21,478 p21,488 plO

Hours of work

33.7 P33.71 33.7 p33.7 p33.8 p

0.1

40.2 P40.3 40.21 p40.5 p40.51 p.0

4.0 p4.1 4.1 p4 .2 p4.2 p.0

Indexes of aggregate weekly hours (2002-100)

98.7 98 8.7 9871 99.11 P0.4

Earnings 2

S15.34 pSI5.44 S15.45 p$S5.451 pSIS.46 1 p50.01

517.07 p519.93 520.67 p520.671 p522.551 pl.88

' Includes other industries, not shown separately.' Data relate to private production or nonsupervisory workers.

p-preliminary.

-

38

Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

In October, 1.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, 170,000 more than a yearearlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals wanted and were available to work and hadlooked for ajob sometime in the pior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed, however,because they did not actively search for work in the 4 weeks precedingthe survey. Ofthe 1.6 million,462,000 were discouraged workers-persons who were not currently looking for work specifically becausetheybelieved nojobs were available for them. Thenumber ofdiscouraged workers was up by 103,000from October2002. (SeetableA-13.)

Industry Payroll Emolovment (Establishment Survey Data)

Totalnonfarmpayroll employment rose by 126,000in Octoberto 130.1 million, seasonally adjusted.This followed increases totaling 160,000 in August and September(as revised). During theFebruary-Julyperiod, payroll employment had decreased by an average of 85,000 per month. (See table B-I.)

Professional and business services added 43,000jobs in October, following an increase of 70,000 inSeptember. Professional and technical services contributed overhalfofthejob gain (24,000) in October,with its management and technical consulting services component adding 7,000jobs. Within administrativeand support services, employment in temporaryhelp services continued to trend up in October. Since April,temporary help has added 150,000 jobs.

Employment in health care and social assistance rose by 34,000 over the month and by 255,000 over theyear. In October, ambulatory health care services added 18,000 jobs, with about half the gain in offices ofphysicians. Social assistance added 8,000 jobs in October, largely in child day care services. Employmentin private educational services grew by 23,000, seasonally adjusted. Job gains over the last 3 months havemore than offset declines that occurred in June and July. Over the year, employment in private educationgrew by 56,000.

Within retail trade, employment in food stores rose by 13,000 in October, reflecting the hiring of addi-tional workers in anticipation of strikes. Since April 2000, however, employment in food stores has trendeddown.

Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food services and drinking places added 23,000 jobs inOctober, following a gain of 20,000 in September. Restaurant employment has increased by 113,000over the year.

Employment in construction was little changed in October. Since February, the industry has added147,000 jobs. In the financial sector, employment in credit intermediation, which includes mortgage bank-ing, fell by 10,000, reflecting the decline in mortgage refinancing activity.

Manufacturing employment decreased by 24,000 in October, with small losses distributed throughoutmost of the sector. Factory job losses in September and October averaged 26,000, well below the 53,000average for the prior 12 months.

After a small increase in September, employment in air transportation was down over the month. Sincereaching its most recent peak in March 2001, the industry has lost 138,000 jobs.

39

Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data)

The average workweek for production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls increased

by 0.1 hour over the month to 33.8 hours, seasonally adjusted. The manufacturing workweek and manu-facturing overtime were unchanged from September, at 40.5 hours and 4.2 hours, respectively. (Seetable B-2.)

The index ofaggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm pay-rolls rose by 0.4 percent to 99.1 in October (2002= 1 00). The manufacturing index fell by 0.2 percent overthe month to 94.3. (See table B-5.)

Hourly and WeeklvEarnings (Establishment Survey Data)

Average hourly earnings of production ornonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls increasedby I cent over the month to 315.46, seasonally adjusted. Average weekly earnings rose by 0.4 percent inOctober to $522.55. Over the year, both average hourly and weekly earnings increased by 2.4 percent.(See table B-3.)

The Employment Situation for November 2003 is scheduled to be released on Friday, December 5, at8:30 A.M. (EST).

Change in Seasonal Adjustment Procedures for the Household Survey

Effective with the release of December 2003 estimates in January2004, BLS will convert to theuse of concurrent seasonal adjustmentto produceseasonally adjusted CurrentPopulation Survey(CPS) labor force estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available monthly estimates,including those for the current month, in developing seasonal factors. Currently, seasonal factors forthe CPS data are projected twice a year. With the introduction of concurrent seasonal adjustment,BLS will no longerpublish seasonal factors for CPS data. BLS introduced the use ofconcurrentseasonal adjustment for the nonfarm payroll data in June 2003 with the release ofdata for May2003.

Benchmark Revisions to the Payroll Survey

BLS will publish nonfarm payroll data revised to the March2003 benchmark on February 6,2004, with the release of data for January 2004. Previously, the revised data were published in Juneof each year; earlier receipt and tabulation ofthebenchmark source data now make it feasible to ac-celerate the publication date to February.

40

Explanatory Note

This nests release presents statistics from two major surveys, theCurrent Population Survey (household sarvey) and the CurrentEmployment Statistics survey (establishment surey). The house.hold sursey provides the infomiation on the labor force, employ-meat, and unemployment that appears in the A tables, markedHOUSEHOLD DATA. It is a sample survey of about 60.000 house-holds conducted by the U.S Census Buaeau for the Bureau of LaborStatistics (BLS).

The establishment survey provides the information on theemployment, hours, and earnings ofv.sorkrrs on nonfarm payrolls thatappears in the B tables, marked ESTABLISHMENT DATA. Thisinfosmarion is collected from payroll records by BLS in cooperationssith State agencies. The sample includes about 160,000 businessesand govemment agenCirs covering approximately 400.000 individualsorksies. The active sample includes about one-third of all nonfarmpayroll workers The sample is drawn from a sampling frame ofunemployment insurance tax accounts.

For both surveys, the data for a given month relate to a particularweek or pay period. In the household survey, the reference wsek isgSnerallythecaendr a kthat onotinsthel2thdayofthemonth. Inthe establishment survey, the referCnec period is the pay period in-cluding the 12th, which may or may not correspond directly to thecalsndcarck.

Coverage, defintiions and differencesbetween surveys

Household survey. The sample is selected to reflect the entirecivilian noninstitutional population. Based on responses to a senes ofquestionson workuadjobsearch tivities, eachperson 16yearsandoser in a sample household is classified as employed, unemployed, ornot in the labor force .

People are classified as employed if they did any vork at all aspaid employees during the reference week; worked it their own busi-ness, profession, or on thir own farm;o or rked without pay at least15 hours ina famoily business or farm. People am also counted asemployed ifthey w.re temporarily absent from theirjobs because ofillness, bad weather, vacation, labor-management disputes, or personalr asons-

Peopleareclassifiedas onemployedifthby mectallofthefollowingcritena: Theyhadnoemploymontduringthe referenceweek; they wereavailable for work at that time; and they made specific efforts to findemployment sometime during the 4-week period ending with therefereneeek. Personslaidofffrom ajoband xpectingrecal neednol hb looking forwork to be counted as nemployed. The unemploy-ment daot derived from the household survey in no way depend upontho eligibility for or receipt of unnmployment insurance benefits.

The risilian laboiforc- is the sum of employed and unemployedpersons Those not classified as employed or unemployed are nooin the lborforce. The unemploymentrole is the number unemployedas a percent of the labor force. The lhorforce pariciparion rate isthe labor force as a percent of the population, and the employment-popalation rano is the employed as t percent of the populauion.

Establishment survey. The sample establishments are drawnfromprivate nonfarm businesse ssuch asliactories, offices and stores.aswellasFede, State, andlocalgovemmententitier EsployeenonnonfarmipayrolIs are thox who received pay for any part of th refer-ence pay period, including persons on paid leant. Persons are coumtedin uh job they hl1d. Hours and earnings data ar for pnrat busi-nesses and relate only to production workers in the goods-producingsector and nonsupervisory workers in the senice-providing sector.Industnes are classified on the basis of their principal activity inaccordanee with the 2002 version of the North American IndustryClassification System.

Differences in employment estimates. The numerous concept-ual and methodological differences between the household andestablishment suneys resuhl in important distinctions in the employ-ment estimates deivesd from the surveys. Among these ac:

* The household survey includes agrinuliural workers, the self-employed, npaid family workers, and private houshold workers amongthe employed. These groups am escluded from the tablishmni survey.

* The houseold survey includes people on unpaid teave among theemployed. The establishment survey doat not.

* The household survy is limited ao work rs16yeu ofage and olderThe establishment survey is not limiad by age.

* The household survey he so duplication of individuals. becauseindividuals am nounted only on. even ifthey hold more than one job.In the establishment survey, employees working at more than one jobsnd thus apparmg on moa than one payroll would be oo.netd sepa.rsely for each appearance.

Seasonal adjustmentOverthe coursofayea, thesieofthe nations laborfueeandthe

levels of employment and unemployment undergo sharp fluctuationsduetosuchsauanalevents aschaugesinweatherreduced orexpandedproduction, harvests, major holidays, and the opening and closing ofschools. The effect of such seasonal anrition can be veny large: sea-sonai flucluations may account for as much u 95 procnt of the month-to-month changes in unemployment.

Becas these seasonal events follow a more or leas regular ptenemach year, their influence on statistical trends can be eliminated by

adjusting the statistics from moanth to month. Thewe adjustments makenonseawnal developments, such as declines in economic ativit orincreases in the participation of women in the labor force. easier tospot For example, the large number of youth entering the labor forceeach lune is likely to obscure any other changes that have taken placerelative to May, making it difficult to determine if the level of eco-nomic cui5ty has risen or declined. However, because the effect ofstudents finishing school in previous years is known, the statisticsforthe aeotsyer cam be adjusted to alowforia cmpashbl change.Insofa as the seasonal adjustment is made conrectly, the adjusted fi-gur provides a more usful tool with which to analyze changes ineconomic activity.

In both the household and establishment surveys, most season-ally adjusted series are independently adjusted. However, the ad-

41

justed series for many major estimutes, such as total payroll employ-ment, employment in most sutpeesectoes. toad employment, andunemployment are computed by aggregating independentdy adjustedcomponent serics. Fr example, total unemployment is derived bysumming the adjusted series for four major age-sex components;this differs from the unemployment estimate that would be obtainedby directly adjusting the total or by combining the duration, reasons,or more detailed age categories.

The numerical factors used to make the seasonal adjustmnnts for thehousehold survey am recalculated twice a year; the factors are cal-culated for the January-June period and again for the July-Decemberperiod. Fortheestablishmensrv yacoscurentasconaladjustmentmethodology is used in vhich new seasonal factors ae calculaced eachmonth for the three most recent monthly estimates, using all relevantdata up to and including the data for the cunent month. In both sur-veys, r visions to historical data are made once a year.

Reliability of the estimatesStatistics based on the household and establishment surveys are

subject to both sampling and onsampling error. Whenausample ratherthan the entire population is surveyed, them is achance that the sampleestimates may differ from the tineu population values they epresent.The eact difference, or sa.ibog error, varies depending on theparticular sample selected, and this variability is measured by the5undard anor of the estimate. Th re is about a 90-pereent chance, orlevel ofconfidence, thata- esmate based on a sample ailI differ by nomore than .6standard erors from the 'un npopulation value becauseof sampling error. BLS analyses are generally conducted at the 90-percent level ofconfidence.

For rxample, the confidnce interval for the monthly change in totalemploerment from the household sunvy is on the order of plus orminus 290,000. Suppose the estimate of tota employment incrratesbh 100,000 from one month to the nex. The 90-percent confidenceinterval on the monthly change would eange from -190,000 to 390,000(100,000 il- 290,000). These figures do not mean that the sampleresults re off by these magniinudes, but sather that ther is about a90-percent chance that the true over-the-month change lies withinthis interval. Since this range includes values of less than zero, we

could not say with confidence that employmenthad, in fact, increased.If. however, the reported employment rise was half a million, thenall of the values within the 90-percent confidence interval would begreater than zero. in this case, it is likely (ot least a 90-percent chance)

that an employment ose had, in fact, occunred. At an unemploymentrate of atond 4 percent, the 90-percent confidence interval for themonthly change in unemployment is about +1- 270,000, and for themonthly change in the unemploymentrate itis about+/-. 19 percentagepoint.

In general, estimates in olving many individualsor stablishmenrushave lower standard error (relative to the size of the estimate) thanestimates which -re based on a small number of observations. Theprecision of esumates is also improved when the dat are cumulatedover time such as for quanrtly and anual averages. The seasonaladjustment prOcess can also improve the stability of the monthlyestimates.

The household and establishment surveys ar also affected by,,onnsantiog error. Nonstampling errors cMa occur for many neasons,including the failure to sample a segment ofthe population. inability toobtain informanion for all respondenrs in the sample, inability orunovillimgness of respondents to provide correct Information on atimely basis, misaakes made by respondents, and enrso made in thecollection of processing of the data.

For ecanmple, in the establishment survey, estimates for the mosmrecent 2 months are based on substaotially incomplete rerums; for thismason, these estimates are labeled preliminary in the tables. It is onlyafter two succossive revisions to a monthly estimate, whn nearly allsample repoota base bee received, that the estimate is considered final.

Another majm soorce of nonsampling error in the establishmentsurvey is the inability to capture, on a timely basis, employmentgenenated by n e firms. Tocorrectforthistsystveaticnderestimauonofemployment growth. an estimaiion procedure with two componenisis used to accounl for busines5 biohs. Th first componemotas businessdeaths to impute employment for business births. This is incorporatedinto the sample-based link relative estimate procedure by simply notreflecting sample unitsgoing ouloflbusiness, but imputingto them hesame trend as the other firms in the sample. The second component isanARlMlAtimesxrisamodel designed to 5timatethe residual net birth/death employment notaccounted for by the imputation. The historicaltime series used to crase and teat thr AtIMA model was derived fromtheancmployment iosoraniverte micro-level database, and reflectsthe actual residual net of births and deaths over the past five years.

The sample-based estimates from the esuablishment survey areadjusted once a year (on0 lagged basis) to universe counts ofpayrollemployment obtained from admioisavoiv records of the utemploymeont insurance program. The difference between the Match sample-based employment estimates and the March universe counts is knoowas a benchmark revision, and serves as a rough proxy for total surveyerror. The new benchmarks also incorpormte changes in the classifi-cation of industiries. Over the past decade, the benchmark rvision fortotal nonfarm employment has averaged 0.3 percent, ranging fromzero to 0.7 percent.

Additional statistics and other informationMore comprehensive statistics are conotined in Employmetn and

Earnings, published each month by BLS. It isavtlabl for$27.00 perissue or $53.00 per year from the U.S. Govenment Printing Office,Washington, DC 20402. All ordesmamsbeprepaid by5ersdingacheekor money order payable to the Superintendent of Documents, or bycharging to Mastercard or Visa.

EotploymnmttanudEaeomgsalsoprovides measures of sampling ernorfor the household and establishment survey data published in thisrelease. For unemployment and other lobor force categories, thesemeasures appear in tables I-B through I-D of its Explartnory NotesPForth establishmentsurreydoia,the samplingecormeasuresandtheactial sizt of revisions due to benchmark adjusents appear in tables2-B through 2-F of Eoptoymni ound Earnings.

Information in this release will be made available to sensory im-paired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200; TDDmessage referrol phone: 14-00-877-g339.

42

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA

TabW. A.I. Eopoty77nt sotst- of th50 oill- Popo290o by 000 an age

(70-4., 77 0.0.,40

NOt somonally .dk.ooW S...ormafy adj00t8I

2 Sa2 200 I003 = 0 I 2-,I =-- I = I= o 0o 3.~~L~~LI2~~L IL2

TOTAL

C700e.00.s780000 0 857000, . ,,,,.~~ 275.34 2217770 222.039 21CM4 225.074 221.252 221.507 225.?77 222.039

0.59. f0. . ....... ......... - ......... 100.320 540.708 i40.757 145.303 147.000 700.040 I-S.03 740,545 740.792

P..Soo.00 .. .... ...... ...... . 500 6009 0.7 50.6 000 08,2 80.2 0071 007

Eno0o,,0.-...,, 707,571 11737,7 703.00 130.088 737.730 737470 737,522 137.573 728.074

E0no4077r407P.007050 I S .. . ............... 0 3.2 ell7 52.4 S2.7 62.3 02. 02.7 020 02.2t41 ob* -8.. 7.700 SAM2 9.759 8.405 9,330 9.003 8,005 5.973 5.779

On.oo4y*.07740...... .................. ------ 5,3 5.0 5.0 5.9 04 02 5., 0.7 0.0

501 io l4an7.00.. ,078 75.512 75.252 72.947 73,918 74.772 79.077 75.234 75.24

p.70. 750a00- ,fl*y 0... . ........ . 4.792 4.037 4.78 4,542 4081 4,021 4.04 4,037 4.047

Men, 16 years and over

cmw, ooO..07.00M70 ..t,,. . - . 704.90 108.7.4 706.897 704.95 700.30 206.475 Its.004 728.744 206.070~ao7,awl .77................. . 9,47 70,270 70.393 77.727 70.372 7,0.7032 719,700 70.455 70431

P477.9.0070-.- --........... . 74.0 73. 73.3 74.0 72.7 73.4 733 7325 7204

0759004.d---- ---- - .... -- l. 1 . 1 73.513 72.775 73,970 73,797 72077 73.0430 73.705 73,475 72.509Ello.oiospoO00574..S- . --- ----- 70.0 971 6952 007T 007 00.0 00.7 090 005

Ooalo..0... . ........ . .-.. ..-.- 4.126 4.307 4.413 4,075 5,307 5.759 4.095 5.270 0.003

09-37070-,00.a. .... . ...... .. 5.3 5.6 5.6 592 a's .5 0.0 S., 02

55905 _0,0 .... ........ ... .......... ....... 27.50 28.529 260087 27.25 27.09 232M 20.02 20,251) 20.407

Men, 20 years and 0007 I

O4aO4r755 0poosaoo. 2,.00.50 90.500 a 95.00 6.09 05,70 00.300 00.4330 0,0 9 6,006"A

V&.0laO77. I- .. ------ .. .... . ., TIM5 74.773 74.005 73.003 740092 74.301 74..07 74.900 748,00

pltdw*.00O ..... ..... ,, 703 75.9 75.9 79.3 7871 75.0 75.7 7M0 758

a 9o30-. 72.372 70.02 7.74 69.9 70,720 70M9 70,20 70.00 70,08

0fr~~oyT~e57-P05t~~aO~~flh000 . 727 72.0 727 72.2 77.4 714 77,2 77.5 77.0

0.n774. .. ... .................. ...... 35,70 3.05 2,95 3.002 4.502 4,500 0 307 4.235 m.79

0797070707.77077 . .-.-. ~~~ ~~~406 5.7 071 54 671 5,9 0 5 57. 50

7407.l7 7 ............0 . ..., .......... .. ........ 22.910 23.704 23.747 22.077 23.504 23.724 22.073 2.92 207

Women, 16 yearo and over

CoO4O-700770530007po04a0.u. ., . .. ... 13.255 77s0535 575.700 7713,25 174.03 774.776 114.003 773.235 773.790

Cio I.0757S .- . . 7.670 07.957 09.300 57.007 00,734 00.359 0.270 90.040 60,303Pe500aono..b . .,, .--.- -. 77 0371 59 4 59.7 5909 900 00.2 592 58.4

0777 . . ....... ......… ... 64.030 04.076 04,040 63,937 64.007 5.445 04,430 54.05 St.44. .... ........ ....... ~ 0. 56 036: 20.7 9.3 58.' 5071 507 I M.7 900

004poad. * 3.547 3.020 3.750 2,02 4,057 2.925 3.98 3.962 2.970

U 0,080770007.. 5 5. .5 5.7 5.9 5,J 5.6 5.5 5.7inW. 900, .........0 .. ............ ....... 45.676 47.004 40782 43,000 000229 00479 00.523 45.75 40,790

Wornen. 20 years and over

C#,070550095 000,800. . 1....,..75.05 707,00 707,707 708,20 306.724 700.830 720,57 707 000 707.797

P09704007, StS . .... ... .... ....... 6070 Slat 007 006 0760 90W 00 0 00,7,oiosoO.00~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~.947 67103 5.777 80,000 07753 07.402 57.470 07,722 07,579

Eos4Oo~h007.SOP57ZO00000.. ,..,,.,, 5757 5771 5756 07.5 97.9 57.2 57,5 0771 57.A

0000p90744 . ,......, ...... 3.1,37 2,434 3,245 0,00 0,355 3,057 3.307 3.834 2,204

00,771007070,, ...... .............. . 00 53 5.0 0.2 0.2 5,2 5.2 0.3 z5,2

Wh0770. .....- 47,425 42.403 42.576 47.52 47.570 42.020 42.520 42,525 42.24

Both sexes, 16001 9 years

0047. .0ts,03n9o0 00w780 ... --...-. , 757 150131 10.145 75.971 70,005 Mop70 7i77 70.131 76,745

cl~~O0700. ,, -,. .. . . ,30 0,9 660 .3 720 ,40 779 7.0a0 7.030PaOd.*000 .7. .......... . 40.0 41.9 42.2 47.2 42.7 44.3 44,3 42.0 43.5

65040704 .-. .. 0,~~~~~~~~~~~232 0l570 5.701 0.40D 5. 5. 5.623= 0,903 5.02 5.1

007750.00 6000 ...-..- 35.0 540 0353 40.7 38.4 207 200l 30I 207000,5590708 -- -. … - ....,. 7,052~~~. 7,705 7.700 7,735 7.4007 5.317 7.767 7,20 7.300

0.sa707I0550al0~~~~~~~ …… 54.5~H 77.0 78.0 10.5 S9 76.4 50.5 775s 578

700 702000-......-,---- 5,00 .3,38 0,030 S,40 0539 a.900 5.877 9,58 977

7 a o700

07Og06 . 07.5.0.40 4.007ooa0fl 907. Wn.7 OTE 707,.p40704, Ja.., 293. 4.6 5677.5 070. 00570000059 -400400

700b,907.04009.00.447070000 -d77900700 -Y.00 007

LNot Annoy -!.d I 5nmg dN_ I

Empbn~~~d~lge 2= - 1 ofM 1 M- I of I I ^ = -

43

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA

Tabl. AtZ Erploy-M W1 of due doI~r populat by I. "., -d -p

tlumbv h. i}.-t

cwv� .&Whe-W �ft"' 150.3DO Inall'S 1111.871 '90-IN lots. lal.341 131.512 101.6% 181.67101-a. Ub. I.- . ...... -.- 12DOU 120.5611 I20.4n 120.481 120.623 120,669 12DW 12D.722

P.�� -..- GG3 GU $6.2 641.4. ....... 114.891 t..093 114AG I'-,294 114.M3 il4A" I t4.141 illltlt 114.567

63.6 aze 612 63" elo 62.9 02.9 62.7 03.0S.6" S.W $,an 8.15. a,6?a sosw 6.52S GX3 G.IS3

4.7 5-0 .'7 5.1 5.5 5.5 S. Si 3ANU o I- b- 59.943 51"5 61= S9.M 50.303 W"iT 60.843 61.389 et.149

M.., 20 Y.-It . ........ ... .......... . ...... ..... ......... Z2. CZ531 62.71' 62.243 62AT 62,526 6215M 62"ge 62.05

P."��- - 76.5 762 103 7&S 763 7&4 75.3 M.2 5078.3...p"d 50.51,11 SON 59"S W.216 59.064 59,167 59.190 59..o .654

71. W 130 73.0 ?n 72 3 721 n. MSU--P*W 2.664 Z759 Z712 2.W 3.3P 3X9 3134' 3.086 3.031

4.3 4.4 4.3 4.8 SA S4 5.3 1.9 4,8

Wm.m 20 y.m ..d - 51.9D9 514DO 52.1.6 $2.133 SI.9w SZ11552.01 SIA21 522MP.U.6.d. NXI fa.6 MO 60.0 GD.3 Sao 50.9 69.6 59'9

Ellow . . ........ ..... _ ------- ---- .9.122 .9= SD.M 19,Wl 5D.10. 49.5157 .9AW 9,S21 42.879Elllwll..P.P� - $Y.$ 5&9 37.5 57.3 57.7 37.4 573 Wit 57.2

U.."O.Y.d ...... ........ .... ..... 2.192 2.353 Z'93 Z308 Z-191 221 2.M 2.383 LmU-0�."� .................................... .. 42 4.6 4.2 4A 4 4 4.: 4.4 1.6 4.4

B.th ... ", 16 t. 19 Y".C"ft� . 1- 5.110 SAM 5.607 6.325 G.ou 5.9w 5,990 S= 5.8S2P, .47,a .7.0 45.8

pt� - U.5 .I? .&' 550-2 "I 47.5- --- ------ 5.20 4.783 C906 &M 5,010 .098 SAS 5,024

.......................... 42.0 3&2 39.; .13 40.2 Q. .0.7 39.5 .0-0tj_.O�W a,. .8 75 am no W2 go, M an

U�� .. .... ...... .................. . .......- 114 'S.0 134 13.9 15.5 1111 15.0 152 14.2

BLACK OR AFRICAN AMERICAN IC�' P.P.1241 - ------- . ....... 25.117 25.781 2 .7021::Bn 25.717 25,W4 25 25.742 25 7P 25.325I ". 717 IS -i16.573 16,616 522 6.682 S40 0.571; 16. 24 15.572

64,a 64�' 6. 2 61.9 63.1 64A 54.4 G..9 64.2E-o-YW 15.11, 11,05 11.777 '&077 I. 74� 14"? ".7n ..= 14.655

..... ......... .............. Sal 57.8 57.2 S8A $7.5 $7.2 57.4 57.6 S&II

. ........... ........... 1.1552 Imi 1.8" I'M 1.97, 1A.2 1.8,0 1.67, 1,91U-� ... ........ .. ...... ........ O., 10-6 10.2 2.9 IIA "'i 10,9 "2 11.5

No I- . ....... .......... ................ 9.043 9"" 2ZO 9. 034 9.%7 9,162 9.183 gm 2.251

M.- .20 y.. a.d -ID- ...... .... ----------- 7.433 7.399 7.ni ?.03 7.417 T.M 7.3� TAU 7.359

P.�'� - .................. . .......... . 72.5 71.1 713 122 125 7i.3 671� OT2.2 $11.2E-o�m ----- - ... . ..... 6.74, 6."s aGm 6.6al 8.1MI 640 .578 Gm .583

65.5 "A u" W 64.3 "A $3.9 W 63.L..Vbyw GU 751 733 731 0.3 746 T" 13' 778U-� - 0.3 ID2 9,9 9.9 113 10.2 10A 112 10.5

W-., 20 y... -d- ------- ----- 8.390 8.413 450 $I= 8.500 0.432 9.510 a..5 8.428

P.1kip.d. 6... 64.6 "A 6U W $5.2 NA ?G- 4F-P" 71708 7= I." 7.67 IA76 Tdu 7.6& 7.678 .583

E.M.P- P� 'M --- ----------- 59.1 55A 58,3 5S.: 50.0 $5.4 S&O 55.7 57i693 Xt a2O 71 an atil an Yu 8-35.1 9-0 9.7 8.5 0.7 91 9.7 It 10.0

C B.th n.M 16 to i9 yq.MIN 774 75D $79 M 771 n5 an ?as

. ........ 34.9 32.4 31.3 3II3 32. 32.3 30.4 3".5 32.E-VI.YW . ..... .. ..... . W Sm 4w 659 46 493 507 Lis .2

E.Pbr-t-WJ� ttttb 27.0 22.0 20.4 27. 2.6 20. 212 232 20.6U'-W�'w - 191 249 20i 21 Wt 278 218 271 292

...... - ---- - ----- 22.5 32.1 34 8 2&V 39.3 30.0 30.0 32.5 371

ASIAN 2 3 I9 9.21X7 SAM I, 1, 3

C�. -P'P� . ..... 6.716 5"25 6"5.P..dp". 17,1 65-9 43.9

...... - ------- . .. ........ G.W7 5.14T 5.7"33n SIA 61.9

U�k�.d 15.6 j3, I,

......... ..... I) (�'3,211 3,16722 3 163

I Th. P- fr- - rc- k- -- W y~ Mb W"' I DGD -c .rw ~niha- t ".sy di4ld NOIL: E.&. fth M- - FrP -0 - lo -Wt- en h IWo A

_lo M.a -o -l WD - ra htdd. Pi.l . 201a p.- wr ncald -o ~ o Pwwa lo . r Inct w~..-~ nS -r - id d h, " gwu o M" kbIdw o D-~ n -

44

HOUSEHOLD DATA

Table A4. EmpInyT7805 s0atu of the H08pa)d or L40no pop on by a.4 and S

(NU.Tb hA)

HOUSEHOLD DATA

Not seaonoally adju4std Sooosaly adf -os '

E-Wopoo77M aws. seadag60, Set OL OI.- J A800.0. L 002002 2003 202 2302 2X 2003 2003 2003 2003

HISPANDC OR LATINO ,ETHNC87TY06.P8PA0 .... .............. . 26.272 20.800 27.873 20.272 22.404 27.307 27.701 27,808 27.901C1if0n00Wt I . . .. .... .... .... 18,112 Met.1 '8.0 18.048 17.820 10,700 148.029 2 8t0 18,918

Pr.a n.o. n . . ........ . _ 0 0.0 07.7 2. 08.7 08.0 67.0 68.0 r 7.8 67.80,7-v7d - .017.610 _ .5 27 17.271 17.0 17.37 11.00 11.5e r

NC .. ... ..YY .........__. ............. ,97t''8t 4 . 4t . ! ~a 167 2 750 7 . 2006 tbbyryts _ .0.rO.97.0... .6_7 620 _0___ .1 03.3 60528 8220 '°s'2't 7 6 (' ) a 2 (7 6 {292 B

09m y.d t. ...... . .... ..... .. ..... .6 1,31 1.7 .02 L 0 1.5 1.020 ( ,')1 1(30(

0 -npnbn . . .. ........... .... _,,,,_,_, .... 10,102 10 7.0 9- 1 (' ) (8" (" ) (" ) (' ) (' )

UAd00 . . 0.0 000 83 (8 SA) (8),S (0)7 ()t a (CM

WMan, 20 y- Wn utFo 6 ...... ....... .. 2. _..2 , (.)........ 9.0 () () (2) '(jt)

E=.,8978 ... . .......- . .. 78 7,, a0n () ) I 2( (1) (')

E n 7 .9~40 ... 600 001 600 .. . 15.9) (0) (. ) () 02 ) ()

EC, ,_,.,_ -- _. D 8.0 7.138 770 (18) (3) i-) (8 (8 ) (8)

E000O . . 6.032 8820(8) (8) (8) (8........).(8) (.).......... .. 329 2 7i 'i I09090007. .... . 07 8 0080 (2 3 0 0 0 8

P871.0900090060 .......... ... ., .. 400~~~~S 307 306 (8 8 () ()20 8

0U7 r0 0 _ ............ .......... I 83I 780 (8) (0) (8) (') ( " ( "B70e0 h th as as, … to … 8 290 20.3 (l8t (0) ) ( (n ( n

9. 00.4 . I .. -... 1.03 187 101 (028 0 8 8 (0)

0009070999907800 190 109 77 ( 2)(8) ((

7.81). A.4. 001019700.9880310801081. o043. popouo~on 2859000848087vs br 810.0000981.081nrr00n

(00730.00009 ) h r0

Not09.80074ly)adl0t1d c808011ly dlst d

Eduwoti61 al8l0t0 O Sat M, A. .A. 0SL O

Z002 20D0 M082 2002 2003 03 2 703

as. U-a 4 hNgh schocl dipl-m8.990. .901 f a S **3S100t0 Z 108t S1005 f0816070080 .b_ _ __.... 1.3_4 _163 82.31 12I41 1S0j0 13.337 1Ui829 12.578 12.i2S

n b~~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~ . I .M I. tm "., tIX lln T sS T .45 1148 6 , _

na~p0778 ~ ..... . .004 03.0 063 00.8 -0.8 450 4003 000 ,-I

p . d 7 .... ..... . . . . . _ ... ........ .. .. M en8 1 J.0 1.360 11.3 1.28 71.448 1.O 8 2Em8b..oft99nm ....... ...-....... . .... _00 47 _ .. 408 0049 603 8 60.4 8. tO.

Higho t00090004d918 no I97.003i0 M0 0 . . .. ... ...-........... 3_. 3._ 37.7 37.90 37.97 37.07 37.814 380110 37.82

;.::=:::_::.: : .......... .. .......... . :: 6 :::.. :4. 3 .7 6.7 904.0 008 5 0 03.T 687 0.0

Epd ._..... -- ... ........ .. . ........ .. 3O.381 36.0 30.072 3,6.C 3770 "'780 358 30"" 30.758E,7rIo0008.9068OaO97708

9. 873 so6 00.0 809 0. 805 50_ _.4 60._ _ 009800097.0 -~~~~~~~~~~~~.... ~~~~1.601 100 17 .8370 2.78078.085 2 .0 Z31 2.037 2.08

U-ow... … - .0 8.0 0.0 4.9 8.0 S.. S' 5.3 005

0o808088980a,90-)t. 409980D0090 ta0- b- … - 34303 340,02 33380 33.864 34,29 U38,70 33.838 033.83 3.000

P994000079- -t .r 72 72.8 72.8 7200 733 722 72 4 27 7000,7.94084- ,,,. , . . ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~32,7$1 32,023 32401 322.30 0264 32300 32.271 =220 32.013

109079)100080977*01997980 - -- ..- . ~~~~ ~~~783 m 690 800 04 806 808 80.0 032 80.50001970080 ...- .~~~~~~~ .... - . 7.402~~~~ 1,700 7.833 _,5s 181 1.717 1.a58 1.02 1.827

....61 .0fl7. .... . ....... .... ........ 04 9.7 0.5 07? 410 SO 07 48 a 04

B.97h0100'. 498000n94900h.99079070 709 09 . 38 678 39.827 00.82 38.822 3.9.800 3914 49.012 308.03 40,611

P9900-'e.09.1........... . 78.6 77 70.2 . 788 93 75 T775 77.8 78.2E,0707.d ... ............. . 37.530 08.552 20.031 37 .4585 30.743 3038 W.1.72 38.337 30,370

89o009990787990079999009..~........-.-........ ..~.. 703 78, 75.9 78.1 703 76.1 M5. 75.1 158198199707.8 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ - … 1~~~.03 1.30 7,70 1.56 .220 8.728 7280 1.276 1.03

0919079705-.t.....nn.--.-.-20 1.3 3.0 3-0 3.7 2I 3.1 3.2 3.0

I 4.W. ith qua a10 nd i .0.a, W o. s p -~ 00 b 000 0'8 90. 0 .971 0840 s.w WO fh 7 -7 8 0

70O 9080ft M7b J 2 8003. 08s, 7.0 7178 9 9 08080h la W0fba.e9d -Ay.

45

HOUSEHOLD DATAHOUSEHOLD DATA

T.bW AS. En. oy d pns0s. by das. ct k. , 90p.(n 460St

Not ..-0A4y adjitsad S...o6ally 4dj040

0. 507pL 09 Om A- A hs54 0000 02002 2= 2003 2002 29 0003 2002 2003 2003

CLASS OF WORKER

44sio40. - ___ __ 8 _ .551 9.404 2s00 2.403 2253 2.935 2-U34 2342 2.47109.99.4 .405.4050. 1 22 50 5240U~ 55 5229 5216 1.354 *520 I.."

_ ............ ... 1.092 900 06 5.040 00 oo4s go 93 579 '40UV045,50d804.-.. . ..-k- . 23 is 17 (5 1 ~ (3 V '

N 5 .......09 ........ .. 135.005 13525 7 536000 534.5;T 5-0357 135 204 535 25 135.329 535.700

0W559,0 - _ _. 024j5 547 s~s72 29.57 51.600s 150.7054 5z9.652 10.s505 ¶19730 50.95s3~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. . ....... __........ _2,1 MM 2oi371 2SoS sss.03 '255s 72 o o s27s ml 12to ¢05.75i 128.32*

ID0.025 050062 506.050 1050079 106.27S 500,535 15 090 505.67 505.122plm- h..Odft 728 IN ~~~~~55 0) ('2 (¶3 (53

04, 9 .. ...... ........ 5.235 50054_ 507 104... _0_.44_ 050.240 50025 {50257 (50.653_._.__ _ _ . ... - .........- - ..... 4.59 045 0.074 _000 0_25 9_0 _ .04 9.31,4 _

U~~Sl…...... 90 555 155 ( 5 ) (5 ( V 5

PERSONS AT WORK PART TIME

M.0 re c _-- ~~- 2rA5G 2m rs 2>3 2,t 32is3 3112 3;017 3*9rs UstiP9ot 0948590794* 5s. __….......... __ __. 3.465 az4.s5 6 4342 44, I 10M257 44 4.4" 4.I7 4.S 4

090w,85lsPu99,94094~4095=8 -. L..... ........ 2.7=0 2=79 19 5.763 2,9 5.295 * .5w 59.02 7 .2059 2264

PM 3 . 7 45008 4*27 4 274 *390 4.54 43,30 4.*s7 4.717sb =._ _ . ._..._.__._. 907z 2 21JsmX ~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~2. 3 074 * .6 r5 2.925r5440,9404, 9494,894.404 . ......0. 2."d l an .2 2727 857 0c4 3. 2- 7 9 .. .060 c52 3 'a5.22 57 527 5.7 5.367 5274

77994501,5,9W009059a.094- - ..~~~~~ 50.075 5.W.4 50260 5434 59.554 50.950 59.542 ¶09519 55.504

9,..5559W8594.k06 -o .094.09594 A54..749944,5.9654435.50 P.4 04.9.. 9940 65 h,890,54 of - 2002 Cess. 640499 5d9455860 9,5

0759,8715947,505449,9494"00555, =., .I'490.0"'..94559M095510.9 491.5 605 9 2D000K.-Lb M6,509 ftds00 0-.99,8,809 -045,50, 9.459,,840 I 0345945 4s f- -k had51,94765595059047.".99...44 P491060455000557 959599. 26,492003.4.5459554 -UW99 .00040 07500

094094509, us~~~~~~~~~d9,55 5944990949-.Y.

46

HSOUSEHSOLD DATA

T .5 5. A -G , $ 4 1 0 0 8 5 4 8 8 5 0 y0 7 5 5 5 8 4, 4 5. 5 0 0

( 8 1 5 0 5 5 0 )

HSOUSSEKOL DATA

5ot ss.osy .43s.td S.asosssly sMjo.5d

5m SW7 Oa 00. MI. A.C.5 S.,5 0m2002 2003 280 W00 20 2003 2003 2003 2003

7555. IS y-, .54.1... ....... ...... . ............ ... 537.531 137.731 138.815 538.05 137,738 137,478 137.625 137.513 138,50458019 . ............ .......... .. S.=3 5815 5.101 6.400 58,3 3523 5,52 5,882 5.,Sam160111 y-.o...........2,337 2.282 2.185 2.387 2.251 2,285 2.38 2.30 Z.206

1 8a 5 59y4 1s 3,855 3,353 3.513 4.045 3,558 3.538 3.552 3.554 3,8382576458815. . ..... ....... .....-.. ...... 1l31.35 i32.118 132.518 738.509 131.85 13135 535.87 131.138 133.584280 .247 .. I . I.... ............ . ..... 13.20 13294 53435 13.303 5351T3 15.379 13.353 53255 53.421585150y8. ..0 .... . ...... ...... .. 515.085 55.822 119.475 117.375 118.454 155285 575.434 516356 518.71352S 7 8 - 7.353 97.432 51.703 88255 87.23 57.253 87.,58 97.015 ST.2"2551546 .....5......1.8.......... 30,8522 30.455 33,518 30,323 30,470 38.437 30821 38076 33,2555447.. ............. ....... ............. 33.742 34.982 24,843 35.003 35,85 34.742 54,543 34.923 35,858

455547508. -. .......... . .. .. 318389 33.071 32.243 31.512 33.085 53.034 32.031 35.84 32.10755 T1.*nsv . .-.. 20.545 25.388 zsm 20.43 2i.517 21.074 25,249 21.24 35.545

4.8. 51*08-1 -- 8.-............... ... 73,553 13.715 75.875 13.151 73071 73.043 73.885 13.475 13.5551855571Y.-1........- 3,145 2.792 3.825 3,230 2.541 2.85 2.552 2,884 2.554

5851.61 . .................. ..... 5.12D 1373 1013 5.542 53085 58 5162 536 5,109798 557.1 ... ,... ........... . 2.03 .1 .188 208 188 577 .5 .0 .

20 Y-8 -48.5 -....... 37..75.823 a555 8.825 73,53 70."0 70253 70.85 7028.83250 24 ...68............. .. 7,050 7.15 737 ,78 7.012 am88 8.547 7,025 7.552571*18.5...7.......... ~... 53.382 83.80 845 82D.835 83.55 823= 83a2 am12 SI87330W54 51m. . -. - ----- 5 32,488 5Z384 05.87 57I 55,80 St,877 52.588 52554205 34 8i5.. 175 58.757 18.710 582859 78.85 5755 58257 58.84 151845

40So 34 .0........ .. .. . . 50.7 55.707 58.747 15300 5.23 5855'882 '8.5 8.8674537108 soS SotI ................ 15.181 I 51,44 11.837 55065 15.157 7I.25 51.3351 I,=38 I525

7508- 55 YS8*5 .- ",.52 84.058 U4.8 83.837 4.857 84.43S 55,438 5428 68."4585557108 ................................ .. ..- 3,005 2.823 283 3.1568 2.514 2.573 2.585 2578 2.952

181?y-57 ......... .- 21.17 5.588 1,555 .204 5,20 1200 598 151.1 0558556'S ........ . .. . 1.7 7.635 5.147 5.984 5.756 .765 1.754 18w.2

2078850,... . ... . 60.847 85.153 65.777 88.88 85.73 85,58 85.47D 81.2 85.25280247108 . 380 525 8.577 8.325 6,451 8,858 8.845 S.3t 5.0

257657*670081 . . ..... .. ~~~~~~ ~~~54847 54'.812 53,400 54.332 52953 83.025 13.508 0.785 53,552550 5718 4 ... .... . 45,585 4.872 458 4.5987 45-.30 43.22 40.258 44,80 483

25 WU Y~. ... ....... 13.873 53.5 13,757 53754 53.742 55.728 53,724 5365 7.375354Y7. . .... ........... . 18285 53,004 1537 58251 15.58 5835 5558 515. 53,854455154 T. ........... .... 7.......,. 6065 5528 13,485 55.052 55.488 15.473 153.25 153153 155454

S5s5 8.d5 . - . - 583 5.941 50.538 28 9.50) 5,8156 5.6551 SAM5 13,05

M80514006-055 .85 ........... . .. 4.528 MAN88 45.50 4.2.5 44278 44.733 44.20 O=57 44.8748.80.3......,......586...15 . 4.85 8,85 5U3.5 34522 54560) 348512 34.835 54-.582 53056O

. .... .1.0511,51. - ... ... 5.0 8.34 8.454 ( 1) (5 ) (I) I5) I

7.4536 ........, ........ . -. 53,570 553.58 553,82 553.435 552.80 553.351 51254 5520 MAW88588.4511*1 00551. ................ .. ... 23.551 24.153 24.755 23,835 20.80 24.450 124.855 28.410 24.451

D- NOTE:S*05.1 80 w 5685.6885*5*45: 555*7015008,Wa.55865*68ElrodIk4-80.,1 8008u pso.4yo133 70-.00- 80 *5 Sn 5*8,85 05.555 1- "0*56055 1815. 5W.4

15*64. 5~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.040551 . J.-4y2003.08580 p888954*06855884515*18Ep10071 755.-1 p1181055583 .1o*y 0865..0413550h85 5386

'-.4.

47

00U3EHO00D DATA

T8328 AJ. S.7.00.d 7070 705,767 idl.M07. 8.86.a-87y114478

840USE340U DATA

2002 2003 2003 02m 200 0003 ZD 2D 2003

770k~ 6Y03.4 08................... 05 8.973 877 S.8 84 82 c3 67 .'S wo Y- - 1~~~~~~.735 82.23 720 131 83 784 7886 17. 77.7

Is. 88.......... .. 1..... 53 342 342 742 28.4 23. 78. 78.4 mg'I ~~~~~ ~ ~~~~~674 88 m37 74. 77.9 7.0 73. 7.1 o

20 Y.260 7,729 7.37 3. 5 3 58 53230 b2430.7....... .... ................. 7242 7'An .48 70I 70o 703 70. 70 70.

25 Y- .4 ...... G~~~.7058 8.777 8.720 47 G7 8 .04. 4.09

237o 54yO ,.... .... . 4.842 5.217 3.22 4. 53 37 S., 37 5.I

2S W 34y47....... ........-... 700 2.042 2.040 386 8G 6 8 6.3 633704478877............... . ...... ~~~~~1.707 1.768 7.7 4 54 632 70 48 8.

4735 40 . .... ... .... .- 2-8-7-4-0--7274--40-4--00 5. 42 4.

70.5 v 34.7.Y- ......------- ..... ........ 23 008 8334 38 0.8 43 4. 30 371

Ss 7787478...... ............. .... . 4.70 0.7 4.80 88 8.8 88 4 6 8

7870733338 -.---.-..-.. ~~~~~~~~ 073T 773 6003 70. "I. 2I. 78I03 7.

"S"08389 Y ............ . ....... 372 02 13" 75.2 77.7 78.3 532 72 77.0

2D y_ 08.............. -. 3.80 4203 I.7 54 8.7 5.0 569 57 3.

207044470------- ...... 83 Du4 8a8 734 77.7 77.7 708 77.8 707

35 Y 78070.. .. . ........ 3.153 3.37 320 4.8 3L 5 .3 52 3 0 S.3

237054688..........-..... 260 2.878 2.878 489 3.3 02 3.3 2 5.3

25 03A8.0.....- .. . ... I.. .2 7.78 I.70 3.8 67 684 809 6.4 8.

3375 4873. . ..... 0 087 037 4.0 5.8 542 352. 4 48

4370343.47 ........ 70G 743 742 41 42 44 44 4.3 43

55 y. -1.747 ..........- 430 03 487 4.0 5' 4.8 0.4 42 3.

03077s83. 78 .. 4 .77 .. ........... - ........ 3.82 3.962 3.07 . .0 37 30 . .

787076802. -.. ............ ..... 522 33'52 707 48 7.0 78 77 74

78707768878. .. ~~~~~~~ ........, ~~~~ 218 22 4 5,2 702 8.0 76.7 76.3 2735

78 ;70706888. . ..... 002 203 240 733 7S.0 74.5 76.8 13.7 12.0

2030780.m7.... . 34 3.434 3284 52 52 52 52 5.3 37

20 . 24 ----- --- ------. . 680 802 838 M,8 035 80 08 87 0.2

253847747478 2 .714 2.740 2.734 14 4.7 4.7 4.0 49 4-7

207547Wu 8..... . 2247 223 2254 .8 50 43 4,7 3.0 -0.

2370347887 ......... .. 8am 87 AGO 3. 6-2 88 35 OA0 8-7

337044-6.78 ........... ...... 37i 803 082 4.8 3. .2 0 48 4.8 52

43083883. . 5. 03 am4 8e7 JB 37 3.7 38 42 36

30 Yn7 - --- ...... ........ .... 344 391 354 7. 37 .2 4 8 3

44874847700.8000786787874.. ........... .8 30 7.778 7.700 36 44 3 3.8 37 3.

W03777778007877 - 708 773 787 7,7 37 6.0 84 835 8.

774.7... . ........ .. ......... ...... 7.050 7.464 767 589 8.3 83 a2 8 2 67

777777730578. 70 32732 7.43 5.2 5.3 3.0 533 08 65

078747033874008 ~ 1.1 II467.

087

870

08 P. ST. 8P4.0w 30002W -.7..o -.78 Wya4 5. I.4.7-, JOb.

8 77 8005748 867708 NOTE: 88387747737470888S34 000 .687

8 74377 37688787087.446040.-d0780873-0 4 00877 88070 84.587 40 o8704 884 810.780 7003783000.4

077.35777- 707=8 08 88 7070 WAR76870784.078t00 70787 78088 8004800 0'77 408 7068468744388..* . ~ ~wP t -0.38707.858077737.40747000804377.8-A

48

HOUSEHOLD DATAHOUSEHOLD DATA

T.70). A 40. U noo p Iy e p .. -o by -o 0 .0 0 W 000770p oy07o

)700007 S 700000)

Not ..- SooOY adJootd S.-.oooly o4)od.Reason

Om S.OL 00. 0a Jon iS Aolg 5000 0Oa2002 2003 2003 2002 2D03 2003 2003 200 Ml

NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED

300 I0.- W0 0880 007 ooo07o7 77-~.y .7o ..... 4,107 0.00 4.319 4.030 5.000 4.051 4.042 601,3 4.0300007M0070 In ----......... I .. . 735 78 730 7.000 7.700 7.708 7.000 7,700 7.00

I0Ya.. ........ .... ..... .. ..... 3,470 3.737 3.500 3.720 3.071 3,753 3.802 3.0 3.830000700)OI--r . -. .. .3 2,050 2.70 0 ) 4) (4 7) C

4007o0 - -. 1-. ... ............ _ .. ... .... S00 00 032 03 702 7TV m0l 73.. ....... __..... ... .. ...... .. 2.297 2.404 ZA44 2.300 2.007 2.525 2.340 2.400 2.304

No.0 orosoto .. ~ ......... - 32 037 575 W0 040 $07 00 700 030

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION

T037077778 . .. o 00 720 100. 0 100.00 7IW0 1000 7007 T00.0 700.0

Jb 000 04280potooo7470)oe-~yjo0 ..... 534 03 3 52. se4 54.2 55, 353.0 030 0.3OlWeePo-Y *010 0:5 0.0 00 I20 73.0 7341 7II )4 72.3N 07700pooOy ftoO 442 44.3 03.0 43.0 47.3 4220 3.4 40 43.0

.1000800878 . 770~~~~~~~~~~~Ii' 70.0 70.2 00 0.7 89 0.0 0.4 808000......... . .. 20.0 28.5 20.9 371. 20 3.3 200 28 2.0

....0o0.. .............. ............ 3. 7.0 7.0 5.8 7.0' 7.5 77 7 7.3

UJNEM0PLOYED AS A PERCENT OF THEC700UAN LABOR FORCE

300 000.7 004 70'1~o o~e soo~e704 O~woyloO 3. 3.7 209 33 54 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.400,40 ........ ..... . .......... ... ...... 0 8 0 8 0 . .0 .5

747N00007.............................3 .4 .0 3 A .5 .4 .5 .4

iu 00000-000* h.01*0d00-y0NO70 000.04004 J-nooo 2003. 400.t 0. -m0.00 700.4000S -.070048000.77

Tabl. A.S. U00p77oy7d p008,0, by dou000n W 000p)0y-00t

2002 200 2003 2002 2003 2003 200 2003 20

NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED

to,. Ooso~0 ... .............. ...... 2.018 I.0 2.07 3707 3.20 2.730 2.757 2.730 3.731570740, ... ........ ...... ...... . 2. 201 3.574 2.300 2157 2.03 3.00 3.000 2 713 2.07703...Oo.00o...0 ..........-. .......,..... .. 2.807 3.240 3243 3.090 3.072 3.5012 3,072 3.034 3.403

7370 20000 . . 1.27 7.260 734M 0.374 7.530 7.033 0.037 1.421 .43700070..00.7....... ..... ... . 7.500 1.073 IN00 1.724 2,000 7*0 7.035 2.703 2.020

A-p~000077d000.0003 03 70 770 008 1.a.0 70 0d4000070007070-0.,-,-.- ---- to... 0 72.2 703l 0.0 72,3 120N 00 70 10.3

PERCEN4T ISTR)BUT7ION

TO00oePIoWloo . .. 1000 Iwo. 700. 0 100 . 000 10D 7000 100.0Lt080S04.. . ..- 337 5505 07. 332 37. 303 0 005 577000747..... .20-4 200 20,7 208 30.0 20. 202 00 20.4I S, odo= , -. . .. 309...30.4 30. 3089 370 001 40.3 304 I0575702 0,...... -. 700....75.0 is* 70. 70. 70.7 70., I7 10.27000.0.0.0.0...... .... ........ ... 20 7304 2371 20.3 27.4 757 230 73:2 23,0

NOE: lf.mog 203070072003, .088000030 Oo.o0. 070.0070 70000 2

49

0OU850E 0. DATAHO3SEHOL DATA

T7.b. A.10. Emp00y0d W2 d 0. 5yd po by 00p200 010 00 0.4y002

VBh)

ToY, 16 y-rs crd c s .__ 2...................0 _ _. 0 _ 4

Mmenl,4 prdnt . rd relo b .000040001000022 __.___.__ 47.040 4 .200 ,379 1.484 2.8 t9

00040020000.502000082.20200040004108C023000000370000 .019,B75 19.500 600 el4 30 30

Po10204 24 0002 wo0 _____.______ 27.765 28.032 771 049 2.7 2.

Sa.00 00740000...... , 22,000 21.872 1.468 1..700 6.3 7.2

S.200 204 __0 00.300_0_ _ 34.999 35.446 2,00 zo00 56 354.22 -3. 0040 ;9SM0 _ 1 5.92 6,010 107.022 .0 1 600 5.9

Off 00 . .... .... -- - -- 0.078 19 , 35 1,072 005 0.3 4.9

520432 022003002. 00000030000, 204 0,.00020.owp4oonoo.2 __ _. 014.198 14 .952 000 1.075 66 0.7

F0000000.5410200.20021032207000384302 . ---- ~ -. 0.03 169 t20 94 105 7.5 04C on0o0__ ._._. _._ --- -. 3 .22 0.307 730 05 3 0.2 72

230404000, n02300002080202 o.84100c0ns, ___ ._. _ 4777 s.323 163 309 33 S.

p 03403000,0000 00.300.2040020201.10203333000320002 .__ 000355 0.104 1.348 0.321 067 6.0

Fabn ppc00o80 _....- 1.2.... _ .. _ 0300 .737 7 093 0 66.

T7000 _d4 n00 -01 C0 3 _ _ _ 3S4 8.922 020 638 00 70

I hol 4h Or . mm1 jell In6 M-a ADS -S A d 0 3 0 0 0 0 C o w 0 0 0 4- 2 2 i 0 0 J 0 1 0 3 7 0 3 4 0 F0t0l4 2, 2 20 0 e 0 7 0 0 4 0 2 b 0 0WM322222200000000200200032920,2 2a020.24203.2224000000

U01. A.11. U002p017d p202 by 0202y0. 000 002000200Y 40dJW0d

Perors ~ ~~~~ .. VW.

2,43,5.ro002o

Tol.d 16 I n 0 o 0 . _ _ ._ . .... . 7,753 0,169 5.3 506

0N00230 00 800000 00302 d 300 00317 _ .,y . -- 6.4ag 6 ,620 57

WMv 3 6 _ _ 31 6.4 3.0Cooooo _ . _ . .... ... NO 651 7.7 7.4

M-hS-I- l.bv .... .--- . .- _- -- .. .... .. --- . ---- .. 1.045 I,01 59 5 .6o2 ..goo2 _ ._. _ ............... _... _...._ __. .. .. 000 683 509 0.3

N k..Ol......_._ .. ....... .. . ... 3X 358 6.0 0.42W2. on4 04 Lo2o _ .- _ ... - .-- . ... _ __._ .1.212 0.189 0.1 5.7

T12300000 0O- _ _.._. ._ _ _.. .. ....... 2- ... 2_2 260 4.7 *

Inlnoooo.. _ … _ - ._ . _ _.. . ....... 201 16 2 Io 564

Fo300040200J0Itiw4l0 b:vl _ __ _- _._._ .... _ . _ .__ .. 312 303 3I 333

P 00a L 14 ..................... G. _.__ ._._ ____. 202 014 7 5 8.1

Etn 2d-b Sb ._ _ , _ __ ._._ 517 639 3.0 306

100202002000 … 001 5Ow____,_,_ _ _ __, 6 33 e 0.53orm00- , 272 378 4. 6.1

0 '020200'040404"02 ''''''o04 wOO. .001 .00217 0nd 0000 _.. . r97 033 0. 0.3

Gooo00o0000l__ ._........ ....... _ ..-% -49 500 25 24S." O11010 7020 d 4 4 y 1 , - --------- -- -. .- 275 338 2.6 31

000020 2200200 0002 h14o2.00 0020 -0n 00 t 0-00200 _o All D, he ram~-

50

HOUSEHOLD DATA

Troh A.12. AA .81.2o. 5647.5 .f hbor 4d-1A40)0

(P~)

HOUSEHOLD DATA

S"taeo4i 0o4d 144480 ajsoMO-

20 4004 20" _ 20 M no 0 260

-Lfhw.,5Isb t d Wa..I __ 20 22 22 21 2. 2 24 2- 2-

..0* ...... .......... 2.. .. 29 .. .. ... .. a-.

164. _.. _ . 54 SJ5 Ss SI- 5.2 51 41 C.

0404 ,__,___ ,_ , ____ _ _ S6 30 08 (') 5) 5'I f I') C' '

0447001.00507.20 .4..a..,.0..y . ............. ._ ....... _._ .......... t a

UT_ bv p._ q tuflb,. bam osnaaO.0- 04.05845 Cl d 11. ao 0.. bbs, a ...

.II,,W W ___ _,__,__,__ _ _ ___ _ _ 90 08 9.6 5') '5 ') 5') (" ) '

NOTE saY 0 *00 a 10*0 *r.0 rS 0 4. . 61_ b _ _ - ' n w

.840 l b0 r NOt 0 fhsd~ . a . 8 m04nbly a O 4.s d~w Sa g 5 Jvww 2004, m, led 1 4 99p .0 lad 4. r

rk *"randaredZ2Jas)*~~~~~~~~~~O 0 Oz~s Oev Oa O

Es.00fabl.A1040 Frmon- nol4 Nin lborfS 04*0 Oduip-owcdsbTb nol40 .16*044 ly4505 r0

Ws~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ri~ Wo

020 u 04n 00 00 0- Won 4

26 200 4 2002 260 2004 2004

hOTIN THE LABOR FORCE

Toul nol1510. r000. 40.04... bs- _.~. - . . __ _. _ .0l9 .s.25 2 24 o u 25.4.1 45.578 .. s0

0.a044n b1.a.4044.H8e.aaa? __... ---. 459 492 206 60 104 2440bRw.44,A04400waga..a

5_ .. _ .1 __. 1125 W02 01. W4 a1o

MUl.TILE JOBHOLDERS

TaW .Kgftp40I = 7,440 72151 4.22 4.flO 94 s 798

N~wY,063U~s.04.Clary9,tpaIUrle .... ~. 4.804 SAO.r 2.__ 2__0 _ 10 5Prsoaryaaa040447,,ob.1plbr~a _.... _ IST8 IYH40 00 7 678 1247 12,o

005 245 a rI4 102 tr

1lrss 'A r * 87 6.0kowarn-ta * ... w … - 54 1144 744 57 60 IO r O ao:O h4418 a- _i. abl ISa SaeWd N'.400g p1w 120810 foln p.pan rd4 045 804,n

-f ..a~babrk a41f no8 eo_10 .1* NOE:r20044580 7.0 40002laW pnwy a 106 .6,, 20.........................dra

t 6n42 edo 444 oadw boOI be .5*19 - 4 rra * h ra 184360 4.784,525 9,20a947.1., nsa - ,00 lwsa2

51

ESTABUISHMENT DATA

T7b. e 1. EPloy... 0n -onlrm poyrchb by Indv DVy --cto7 nnd on1bcd .6 UW Y dbU

(5I 00459749)

IssdooCy Om 2¶30037 2, Z10i

To1t r ..n ._. . .......... _ |11 7 71129.M 133 130,249

To05 p1b ._._ ----------- -----------. 609.463 109,314 100.995

545,s5 -,854sw 9 97757................t<hdLdming ........ .......... .....................

Logg- ...... .......... ...I.. .....................

.. ta ... ... .. .. .. .... .. . __ ..0ll 400 gr49. 4 n _. ._.. _ ...._447075,97690145d9754'_._ ,._…

ti od ..... ,_., ................ .. _........___

tw . i . b 9~ . n ................. .....__

H.M W -W.qW9-b

tpo-Nyto. .CC - ........ ..... .....

C497055545659,0..

D 1 d8467 .. ......... . .......

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, Pn sn ...... ... .......... _. _.........505d4 50519 . -

P550 ah.046086.,..~. .._____ ___.

P005 ........................ .. ...._._

CUV"hn7." _...,.. .. ,_,.........................C.."054 ." . ".1 0764409 …

057554147nd p8nphonl q5457n05. -_

F-i. mid W PC t pW Cr

7s090s9l00 ...517 -- - -------......E~N.4 b hrru ._ ... ..... ......_,

F-d. -f54 .al555 P......................_.

Foodlu n 7509l554~l e-Pxa w .~ _.... _.... ........

T." o h .............. .....Fpa. mVub~p rg.......... ............... ..........756144 nd Cbes o.pousr pm* , W " ........... ......

AW ..._

P - - opv .dpp7 mu ...... ..........._,_.

TW.. g and mh.id appo ............. ...... ..

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1596o141900955940704404 .----...

6p4010070504461. .... ___

T194. 605055501. 474435070 ._

hY464 084.s . .-... ... .E0o5019 -t 004sohodb._

22,592

56370.

512.5121:2213473 9

1780

6.9221021,2

979.54,321.3

4.22 1,219.137

5.413

5211524.5

1,2157.1,42.7

512.7.44.64585

.0,7744,241

1.541 42052

..195.1

.349.

2548

4547030

1083605

.25.

22.392

077so85.9

510.51I54214 I770

170.0

7.134

8a7.54.450.9

14,68110.250

9.0526,.2096459

5125

1.47791,165.1. 39213

221.1

480.14a04305846286,7738147774 95

871.1

58294.090

I55.6199)250.2178.925R9.543.2

52a.691411540186

107,241

55.59

23200

22,M

W73

625.7X211

2165

7.00

9994

s024.4373

10,o252

9.01

640.6

474.3

1.3515'.301 ,

2202165.94728428.7452.

1,772.757426605

1,60.4

2500

29 542.

528

857.2

68 25

1179

931.1

107.955

Wil.71

2o,20

131,071

109.252

22,217

5776s2

1295211.7

71.61702

7.098

97854,422.7

1.4.6t2

10227

9.X36.172047.03042

1.4 70

1.161,01,379.1

2154I109

469.9

425 5459.5

1.709 7576,36637

5.675S..541 .34,055

15.8204.0179 7295042.8

3524.58596

116,5050o

829.3

103.654

; 7,075

25.350

130.408 1129.903

506,804 106427

z2.423

57255 7805.7

121.3209.773.

1745

6.7201,5850o

515,1918 1

4,214.2

15.742

io,us5

9.4006,474554.2516I

504.4

1.2195.453.9242.0183.5513.94441

1.51906

593

5.7434,211

1.52,002091

346.74a8

545.701.3

2118.82510

107.973

55,429

ZS3.43

5.6202 61 . 40 .5548 56159 5,57- .62.95,1 .948 2,929.5 .0 6 2zsso.s 2. 0752 5197 2.0056 2.54,5 2.000L2 2,010.I 2,00O4.

6106 I858 6199 6018 5 580 8190

Son b100 65514 ond 804 P1 15

ESTABLISHMENT DATA

130.000 130.132

I08.55 05.544

23 Al203

120,845 1295851

105.355 105.411

22.001 21.552

565 565640 036

5021 501A120.3 1200205 209.173. 72.91572 1670

6.s04 8.8251.60. 1.01059

510.5 913.94206.3 4.300.3

14.631 14.592102,7 10.22

.2,24 1.0185s150 6.1825405 030.25011 001.4

4780s 475891470.7 1.455 2I171.5 .152 o1.3se1 1.39285

223 5 21.9171.9 170.9a.s0 470.542.0 4*9046009 4*#17G002 1,17.65

5742 573.75730 6504

50,07 505744.009 4.047

7,520.5 1.521.71944 194520457 20s.51642 175.4301C2 259.043 5 43,1

692.2 8500

517 7 014.8533.3 825.3

107,45 107.sss

05,357 ga.429

25.211 25,217

3,560.1 56,00.029404 2.53402. 001 1.997.

5183 517.

= p ZD-031 IsI ZZ.

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28

22,06

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026129

2069,732

1602

55001,1057

5058

14.2415.810.254.

9.001

6.221

5250

1,17551. 4077

22851733455425487.1

1.7740

*678

5.6114.07

1,517,

194.

1654.3075

3438306694.1

531.7

107.642

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6536

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5.9411.62053

91.5.4.30533

10.106

9,000

641.14941471:9.484.4

1,155.8

221 .51700474.242

461.11.7841s

5738

667.9

4.037

194.42577179.203.3430

5282

5.01150

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108,037

25,241

35.502

505641

500.51260

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85509I6 X

5.149

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4030,4052~269.2

1406

470.1426.840 3

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5,530

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8s,593

29,269

5.546.8 a 5478 1.22,93059 532z4 135159.4 7.5940 o 2.4

52105 521.2 . .3

52

ESTABUISHMEN8T DATA ESTAB9J9HMENT DATA

T .b1. 8-1. E mp loy .. -9080 990 P.5708. by 5*3*9y 9o .. a d . c1 . 4 tadoory d t.uILW oevn...

( I n Uo s-o3y a p t 4 ,j0 n o f l a j o 8

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2002 MI003 20-02 12-003 200 208 I 03 203 Net203-- I mi I = I -I-1 Oct03

Rtowto~. ... 15.0708g t495088 14,908t1 tS,0432 15.02532 t4.984.2 14.908 0 14.971A 14980.9 I5S0t52 30.3Mow hidro. Id ........... t..9..961 t81.695 t.80 88398.4 t.M80 1.877.9 t 032 1.880.5 t.884.3 t,804.9 .60oaobo dea. ... ...e..... . t.. ... .I.259.2 1.25386 t.255.2 t.255.3 1.234.0 t,248.0 1,2490O ta.l4 1.25001 t.250.2 I

w00h5t8108t wkv. 0 ............. 509. 538,9 5302 540. t 4885 548.5 3039 501.8 50298 503.2 .4EDo0oos-dapoloauoo......... .. 527. 513.0 51352 5320. 5200 522.9 510.8 519.9 519,9 520.8 .7BoO1n mat,1. .70gooe sPoly am,. t1,180.3 1.222A1"t.297 1.214A 1,t84,2 1,194.2 1.190.5 1.203.3 1,2100 1.2158 00PoodI b-na.plo ............. ,2859.5 2.808.2 2VM90 2.809.? 2.85205 2.81286 2.801.7 2.7080 2.7815 2,850 13.0Hea? and P-on......o ..... .. 9000 9&8 965 8 0734 U909 967.9 965.8 9659 908.5 972 I 3.8._ho8.5990,....... .90402 91896 907.1 801A 90386 9088 900.0 907.8 903.5 901.0 2.5740W Aho do " oaa1t~o~ ... 1302.3 1.281.7 1,257.1 1,278.7 1.300.4 11027.5 8,271.8 1.278,9 1.2780 1.203.5 51Spomt 9088$. hobby.book. 8AM m-

$900 . - . 6590~~~~~~~~~~~~.. 82.9 638. 8433 8055 602.0 643.8 50. 8438 8412 860459(8) m.1000069. store.' 3~~~~.84 200004 2.88 2.86389 2.09 2,831. 283.8 280. 2.83 2.7 38

No.p..... s~. . ,.. . .01 16.93 1.79 1.7239 1.68089 8.8899 1.80 8,5. 1158 ,0.3 7MLO .. sroJ_ .I oroWe ..... ...... 9698 8295 038 2 944.8 96008 8018 5025 5014.0 8020 82.27 .7Nooot.reldm.0.................... 53.4 09. 43084 448"Q5 843.81 4.008 443 4420. 43M 437.7 -.9

T-nooo~np-d mo~o.. -4 - -n ... ........... 0,2328a 4,083 44.U14 4.8181. 4.19408 4.113.9 4,103.? 4.101.2 4,11589 4.110.3 .105Aw tWoPoW0eoo .58.. 0855 9055 50874 902.0 55 50 5024 500.0 502.5 4974 5.51FU6 waomoo90.313 25 172 27 11 281.2 217.1 214.8 2180 21.8I

WImnot.o.9.. ............... 04 52.5 488 49 804 901 905 4909 48.8 092 6ThOo85,Wpmowfi.1.. .. -.......... 33,7 .5328 41.303 1,358.2 1,23862 1.329,9 1.324.0 1.331.0 1,329.9 1.3520 2 1T-l Mlts44roce P89eollgmlbos oooo 3722 22327 3030 37085 35001 345.4 3874 348.2 355.7 3580o 2.3Nowp t hol.tfe919 - 405 08.1 3884 0808 404 28.7 39.5 38.9 389' 28. .1Soamc.oAd g03e.inothmlpmlol 2. 0. 2 282 299 295 30.0 209 302 35480wbl00. lmooolo.. o 552 50 500 028 171 25 10 519 1 52271 5221 0

Col-laolnd .ol. . 8274..~" 531. 553. 501 9515 900 580 957,8 5723 155 .2.0O~wshl " agW'8. .......... 5241 582.3 585.2 521.2 5193 8109 513.0 5184A 5151 5140 .9

5008. . ... ....................,,.., ...... .. 593.8 593,9 5909 90943 8008 5995 5099 590.8 081.1 591.4 .3

1k -i .. ..m... ............. 3.399 3.253 3.252 3.250 3.32 3.285 3.218 3.257 3.285 3.257 -9P~b0ohg090o80 -109l088 - . 808 942.0 938.0 937.5 9847 945.1 9814 5015 29 9378 .19mow.np WM tml.otol teaotMgo~~l 387,9 373,8 5825 359 7 3507 371.7 373.7 387.2 389.3 387.5 188048 49n9, Wv 8110. .... ......... 230,7 521 3258 324.7 830.3 324 2 524.1 5229 525.4 320.8 .1.3101ne1o.t409904m' MN0o . ...... 34.1 348 344A 527 5402 3400 3405 34.2 34 1 521 4A

Teotmmmunossom . . ~~~~~~~~~1,181.7 1.8231 1,123.0 81512.8 1.1777 8,132.8 1,127.8 1.123.7 1.8243 1,120.9 .3.4IPN. -olpohft. ".0lpmflo 42.8 43804 423.1 425.5 4440 4321~ 4329 429.1 428 0289 6 .209,erodm.......... . 48.3 4586 402 49,0 405 458 058 455 .45.7 08.5 .3

FW.,ool ..................., 7.85 8.5023 7,901 7,908 7.872 7.972 7.901 7.980 7.989 7.800 .9Fm41881 uI.. -.... ................5.825.8 5,502.9 2.018.2 S. 913 5, 592 5 5,28 5 ,9244 ,91 5.93 .11.

84-050879 mm1..............96228 22.1 28.9 28 22 9 238 22.1 22.0 52.0 28.8 .2Cmdotmldoio.8m08o0d t 2.70088 Z2.900 2751.9 Z778.? 2.710 2,725 2.7804 2'788.a 2.7585 2.781 8 9.7D""eWyct.dit18m.o l...........1,738.0 1,723 1,78.2 1,788.3 1.740 8 1188.5 17715 1724 178 1,74 186Cooo,68l..j ... ......9. 1,283,8 1,313,7 1198.0 1,207.5 120880 8 302.3 1,384, 1.308 1302 1303 .4

S-Atnoe..om-oaycm-.0,Irwesfrn.oe 795.1 800 7598 .80. 758.9 7987 75886 750.9 7995 80081 ISnsWwcn~r 0'18 sc~WW........2.23207 2,237.7 2,253.7 2.23498 21272 2.239.9 2,2308. 2.237,1 2, 240.4 2, 2394 *2 0

F,,Os.1rt.,rao4 elo.. ato-hid.. 80.1 88,8 81. 80.5 80.1 821 82A 88.6 81.9 80.7 1.28859$98$OlS lJod dft-kVi ........... ...... 2.0289 2.5909 2.3835 2, 597.9 22031.1 2508.8 2.052.7 2.3052 2.805,7 2.05080 22

Rea~eowo .............. ,,.......,...... 1354. 8.97 1378.7 1,37899 1,3544 13565.2 1,0.9 1,371.5 8.3735 1,2715 2.0RsohO -d 44,~mc. ........ , 8403 8088 8042 808.5 68409 8502 858 85012 858.2 8508 .1t.05m7of -ft-d4l 80gfl501 -Wu9 ,,.. 27.7 29.8 20,1 20.8 27.0 29.2 29.2 29.5 30.0 304 .4

P88s9-2ohm b00 05,.0. so e. ........... .. 18197 1823 80,280 88.353 18.030 18008 18,082 88,004 18,124 16,167 43Ploft-sloI ndr .eo8 887 ...889.'.- 8..8.97.0 .8460 8,627 08189 0,738.3 8,874.9 8.661,8 8,817.3 8%,896 19.76 23.5

Le~.l flo.. ,,,,,.,,,, .1,23 1182 1,118 .5 1127.3 1,121.7 1,120.2 8.12286 8.821,9 1.1251 .22 3Ao-h1W,40 Sooks _: _9740 23.3 780.1 7987 7908 8027 8499 8079 8043 808.8 883.I 33Aohot Atoroeo gm..Mg . .co ........ 125687 1.2587 12728 1.25917 1,25153 1,238.0 1,240.9 1,338.1 1,247.1 1,24885 -.3

C5P.' 8 -- . 1,8532 1.1288 8,12786 8,8375 1.1534 1,14280 1,120.8 1,82514 1,1308 114281 5.3

-A m. ....... . -. . ............ ... 737.1 742.1 7482 792.2 734.0 731.8 735.0 738.1 792.0 74089 8.9

S.8 f80t0896 89 d0 0f 19..

53

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABUSHMENT DATA

TV t.1. Eney. on nosm Pao-O. Oy InC04rv Or and 000044 0nd00by .0linund

(In 0sta d.10)

I 00904940040 40POOd S...ooy 0010900

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ e, I _ _ _ _

2002 1 003 2003 2001 20302 2003 23 1 I w2 20 0 0.2003

M.. 49so.000..o M fi .s . ......, 1.70008 0.0591. 1.597.5 I.M003 1.003.9 t.60005 1000.5 1.60008 1.091.1 1.0001 1.9044d.v0900 0Iss 0.s 7.700.8 0.0.05 1.9400 7.0603 7.0940 7.6309 7.702.5 7.7061 70737.2 7.75&2 21.0

A& 009. 09loU odoW p 0.ow " ., . .470.9 7.57027 7.02571 7,08008 7.27002 7.323.0 7.3003 7.1092 7.420-3 7.443.1 22.800000 0 ........ 3.4061 3.40904 35607.7 3.6055. 32060 ' 33130.3 3.37408 3,373.7 320s0 3.42177 2807T.09 WPh. 9 .. . .......... ...... .. .. 2.207 2,3227 2307J 2.4031 2.1920, 2.207.9 2.2200b 2,2300 2,204.3 2.1.2 109

1105-l PW0 Ili.0 .... ..... 0505 743.0 741.0 757.0 0490 7470 743.0 703.4 75307 7330 .2S ei0SS O1 sO 40n~ oo O ooolog o 1 .042.9 0007.1 1.0045 i,047 3 1.40017 1.001 89 0.0000 1 0813 0 1.01000 0005.01 4. 8

WAa- m u"-n W .9 '317.93 32105 320.3 31065 310 8 316.0 322.2 310.9 31500 3151 6 .16

0.. W 0 M7 -i ... ... ........ . 1...401 16.178 0.4375 10.001 10.315 10.S00 16.407 10.541 16,589 10.023 20E-oW71. _m . . _,, 2.0304 2.3113 2.050.0 2.0000 2,003 2.03 2049 770 2772.0008 2.73143 2.737.3 22.0400th - W 80 -W04 .. ...... . .. . 13,040.5 13. 015 3 13.8247 13.000 03,63323 03.503,2 13.010b103.0400 03 8340 03.8000 33,8

hus4r0 h . . . ............ ..6.30 4.0000 4..7.3 4,01600 4.602.0 4.73774 4,2 4.70 17 4.7 .09207 4 .0250 7 17.7f f P- .............. . 2.50000 Z0020 22.700,5 2.0000 2,09.0 2.3g00 2,0027 2.00006 2.00b0 2.00 2 52

O.W0.0 F 4 - -W . . ....... 41s.0 4130 400.0 412.3 4022 140.7 02.9 4 437 4033 413* n 0H4 o 1d h .. - - .... . ...0..9., . 00 8.5 715.0 712.1 717.0 657.0 7000 700.1 711.8 711.0 703.0 2.0

o .... ....... - .. . 4.105 4,.207 4.2322 4,240 0 4.07O00 4,227.0 4,2209 4,230.2 4.7370 4.2400, 2.7N-AV " .0 - .d4 d f. 7 2.157.4 2.700,0 2.7 0.4 2.7000 2.7 .10 L3790.7 2,707.2 2.7007 2.7U04 2.799,0 5,0

0N . 0.1000.0.0.000.0 1.5.4 81.0 .1 2 0. 5004 0, 035.5 0.58 08.007 0.0 000. 009 0 1. 40 0,5 02 1.5 0 4. 1,5 0 60 2 2.$00.l. ........... . 2. 09,0 o.0i0i 2.0i2s4 2.0441 2.0052 2,010.1 2,00i.4 2.0.22 Z.0305 2s3 04O

Cl,4 ....o.0.. ......... 7 35g3 002 021 7491 7202 72230 729.3 73 24 733.4 022 50

F.... W hpb. 0

y.-0.0 12.633 02240 02007 12.032 02,030 12.051 12.051 12.055 12.081 23k t09 .,9 0 O o O . 0 . 0 4 4... , . 0 0 2.9 2. 0090O 1.5 15.7 1. 009 06 0.10000 0.7 0 ,4 0,7 03.8 1.7 300 0.0002 0.7720 7 .7

P 40 0g ,0 .0 .04V ft W ,90p 9... . ..... 3992 302.4 36025 3503 36009 3405 347.4 3473 354.0 357.5 34M - -. . N .ro o d o ., -.od p.0 4 0101.3 017.7 10034 0009. 1002 0090 0000 10900 10000 0005 0U - h. s405n. .0 4 ........... 1,, .2.. .2034 1.57,5 1,3 2S94 0 1300 2.10 ,300.4 1.302.7 1.302.2 1.3059 37

A -s .5 ol40 0 .n9 9 9......... ..... .10011 02b 40 10.43102 025972 0.240,0 00.20 4 0.2809 05.0900 10.293.0 00.3070l 14,8A 09- 04 =9........ .. ..,... 0.7 0327 0,900.9 1,7 07.0 0.741 96 0, 05 0 701 0. 6 .7099S 1.769,0 1.7 00.0 0,742.4 a.8F9009470049 0 04 0 --- - =------- , . 8. 707.430 . 2 0.0333 , 08.455.6 04525 8.51003 B.5483 0.52107 8.541 0 50.5354 234

00d .. . . . . .. ... 3.36 5.330 5.290 5.305 0343 5,323 5316 53109 5.313 5.303 004040070 000470 .o.. . ..... .. 0........ .. 1230.2 0.22 0,7 0.27 5 0102 77 1.230.4 0.2 0006 0.2 055 1.222.3 1.220,0 0.2000i 1 79P S,0091. 1010400 -07 0. ... ....... .... .123 09 10,2774 0.2 1.20 1,224.3 1,237.5 0,225.0 1.224 06 0.22335 1.2U100 0.32 03 2.404~o4 00009 49 . 43 0. 080 9. 94 0 Z4.. .0 8 2.05012 2 05406 2.06310 2.0753 2.07 03 2,072.0 2.002,7 2.073 08 3.071 -.3

0os~n ... .......-..... ................... ... 20.030 203109 201250 21.779 21.344 20,478 21.450 20.470 20.409 20.400 00F.0. ... ., .......... ,.- . ........... ... 2.7 00 3.0 0 2.700 2.72 2.000 2,.7 9 2.047 2.749 2,700 2.740 .25

F.d.0.. o p U.S .P o.0055o. o. .... ... .. 1.95 0,0 1,940.0 0.9 105 0.020 2 1,90 7.5 10,2 02 0.2509 0,9295 0,030.4 0.02 004 .24 0U .S. P o.04S oo ... .. .......... ,..... 030,7 000.4 8009 0090 833 96 02 01 000.7 0 5 0 2. 0 04 .0.2

S W0040 ..........Ooo.o s .. .... .....,. ... 5,000 4.4a0 4.9 02 5,0 03 4.904 4.525 4,000 .0 2 0 4.9 44 4.000 7SW41. 9 -70 04 041 40 0... ., . . 2.3223 1,900.7 2.1 07 0 2.335.5 2,201.0 2.104,3 2.175~5 2.0000 2.19 0. 2.207.2 7.4

50 -49 00. 00 n0,40 05.6 - W Z... 27752 2763 1 2.744,2 2,733.9 2.78000 2.05 00 2.744, 2.74 0 2.74 40 2.43 06 -.4

1004 g 1 oa . ~ .. .... .. ........... .. ... 13.000 02.800 13.579 03.003 13.779 13.902 13.790 13.797 05.009 03.079 20104 900. 7............90 ..... ... 7,925.9 0,0535 7.0025 7,94 2.0 7.000.5 7. 7 00, 7,023.5 7.735A0 7.000.0 7.007 7 20.7L o040 000.. 05.7 .. O0 00 09 09 0 0. , 0.030-0 0122 94 0.0 00.5 0,3 930 0.007 0 60.0 3 5 0.0 002 60,5009 8.501,7 .00035 7 08

1jfl90049 9440004.000 solos,, oeo.o.Ooiy 0. 00090o7500

p .p~uzy'1 nddR rtd. ~ n ot Sho &.R ttly.

54

ESTABL.ISHMEN4T DATA ESTABLISHMENIT DATA

TIO.WB.2. A019 0.0801 l1O084 100~p11.831811 np41

0811 ~10 yId11 lll.,0.d1.411.t1y dt48

N yt d 14d I140011400 d.3Jo81

114018y IOct 4 g .1 OtIOt[48. 8y Ag 00 I 008 [C2002 vi 20031300 303 2002 2003 I 00 200 I 2001 12003810.0IP12003.

I I 4 I I4 Iz Oat 2003

TOW8P1i4t18....2...... 20.....3. 3480 33,8 33.7 33.8 33.7 338 337? 33.7 33.8 0.8

G0041-produolg ..................... 40.0 40.1 40-3 402 39.7 3988 39.6 39.8 3989 3889 .0

Ntu~l .w . JM *,g ................... 43.4 .4.1 44A 43.8 430 43.7 4332 43,7 43.7 A3.6 -.1

C0001r0111.- ...... ................... 38.7 3885 39.1 38.8 38.2 38 4 383 38.8 38.4 3804 .0

64-8u.OO~lg............................. . 405 40.2 4068 4071 40.3 40.3 4081 40.2 40.5 40.5 .0000 hurI........... . ............ . 4.3 4.2 485 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 .0

10c1,14 good I........................40.7 48.6 41.3 41.1 4086 40.7 40.5 40.5 40.8 4089 .10041 Ito1 ..0...8...............8 .... - 43 4 3 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.1 41' 4.2 4.3 4.3 .0

W08d4product,.........................40.2 40.7 41.0 48.8 39.5 40.3 40.7 40.4 40.4 40.7 .3N0-.WAJLfo140-11p1d001 ..... _ 42.3 42.6 42.7 42.3 4189 42.2 4186 43.1 4189 42.0 1PIVOIY-I 11..........................42.3 41.6 4285 42.4 4234 42.0 41.7 41.8 42.2 423401800114W JJ8141 Pr184 .................. 40.7 4005 40.9 40.9 408 40.5 40.8 48.5 40.7 48.8 .1IM0081l11o.y...... - ... ...... . .... 404 4005 41.1 40.8 a 5 40.8 40.3 40-7 41.1 408 -.2C01o1810u 4 Itr.1008pdu000 ... .... .... 384 4089 40.7 40.7 39,3 40,5 40.5 41.8 40.5 4086 IEW~bcO qiohl81,l 0.408lo. . 40.1 40.3 40.7 4181 3989 41.0 40.4 40.0 400 4088 .2T-JIftWQfl~~118.1pr-1. .... ...... ..... 42.5 40.8 42.6 42.4 42.4 41.4 41.3 40.7 42.0 41'9 -.1F-ft- -;11,.1010product Il..........38.6 38.4 38.6 38.1 38.7 38.8 3889 38.1 38.2 38.1 ..1W-W -I tfict.ri4 g ................ 388 381.1 38.4 38.3 58 8 3886 38.4 38.2 38 3 382 .

lord-obi. good I. .. ....... .. ..... 40.1 39.7 .40.3 40.1 3889 35.7 39.4 39.7 3986 40.0 .208l8. ................ . . ......... 43 4.1 4.8 43 4.1 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.1 41 0

Fo00d lmladurig 89 . ....... 38.8 38.7 40.1 38.7 394 38.4 38.0 39.3 38 4 38.4 .0880418500.110188.008010 ...... .... 3905 0881 38.5 38.8 3954 35.0 38.5 38.8 38.8 3886 -.2

T00018.11I .. .................. ..... . 39.8 38.7 38.4 38.1 40.0 38.6 37.7 38.7 29.0 38.0 .0TWO* Product 1lb.....................38.7 401 41.0 40.0 3889 38.1 38.8 39.8 4068 4005 -.348r1.1 ................................ 358 34.7 30.1 38.1 38.8 35.0 34.8 34.7 302 358 .7L..18r.nO.08d0p18d pdctI...............38.7 38,8 38.4 38.3 380. 38.8 39.8 38.0 3885 3871 8aPW. W pp.p4070 d81.U .............. 41.7 41.0 41.7 487 4186 41.4 41.2 41.2 41.3 410 .3Pdn1*08l0d a14.t8dwppb088408 387 38.1 36.8 38.8 3805 2.1 38.0 38.0 382 38.8 3P811.8411611d004pot8,0 ........... ...... 43.6 43.9 488 4085 438 44.1 435 44.4 443 45.2 .7ChocoJl.1I...................... 42.5 42.2 42.5 42.0 4285 42.2 42.1 42.3 42.2 42.0 -.2P180.41110cs"tbe ,O.,o1 ...... ..... ...I 4086 40.8 40.8 41.0 40.0 4081 40.0 40.2 40.5 4080 .3

Ph184.h .......... ............ . 32.4 3286 323 32.3 3205 32.4 32.3 324 324. 324 .0

T18..548801u41t8.000d810.4..............3386 33.8 33.7 33.6 33.6 33.4 33.4 33.5 3386 3386 8

Wli-IO. tod. ...... . -............. ..... 37.7 38.0 37.8 38.0 32.8 37.8 37.8 3789 37.6 38.0 .2

R.1.188400.. .... .......................... 30.7 31.4 31.0 30.6 30.9 306 28 3 8. 6 30 8 3.9 38.8 .0

T,.orp.nbUocd...01 ......... _.38.8 37.1 37.2 37.8 3889 3686 3689 3689 3710 3781 .1I

0t30..........91 ....4.......... ... 41,2 40.9 40.8 41~5 41.0 41.0 40.9 40.9 4085 41.3 .8

k1 fi ..48 ........... .......... ....... ... ... 3886 3805 36.2 38.2 388S 36.4 38.4 36.3 36 2 34.2 .0

F- d F~c10 t48li .I. ..... . ............ 35.3 30.4 352 38.2 300S 3508 3585 3805 384 38.4 .0

P.Imi884.W Mb815k1. .-8014. 34.2 3481 33.8 33.8 34.2 34.1 34.0 3389 3389 33.9 .0

E000800-00 h-Ith -A . ........ ......... 32.4 32.7 3285 32.5 3230 32.5 3285 32.7 3285 328 1

L0100101d41104414ly .... ...... ...... . 287 28.3 2503 25.8 28.8 2585 253 28.4 2885 258 I

Oth.0InIO.. .......................... 32.0 3889 31.7 38.7 32.0 31.8 31.0 38.7 38.7 31.7 .0

-111h081. 0081601184018000011880 418011.01007p 10i1-l41008404 08.t .... 4001181811p11005g..Th-. group00080810

55

ESTABLISH4MENT DATA ESTABLISH14BNT DATA

T.63. 6-3. A,-"o. hfotl sd w..Ikty -..nlp of pod.o.6- os -.oooo095 .y ok.. -4 polto1 450.d p4070 by Isd-boy .01, 91,.05.60.60500 7.600

A-P 050

Y .0Iy.40 I A-81999l 0y ...ll4

hlds00y O0.a...ol0IdA0.S0I0________________ ~ ~ MI Z~r 202 203

T O I.194.m 915.12 915.35 S15.40 $114 5511.06 9521.90 15322 0520.67S...0l.y .4.1.d. ........ 15.10 15.45 15.45 15048 510.30 520.67 520.57 522.55

C.od.-5lod.08 ... .................... 16.55 16.92 17.01 10.93 $60200 678.49 60550 600059

Nfts~w - " d.0n0809.- -- 17.25 17061 17.74 17.67 740.65 776060 702.33 775.71

Cos.o-ll . .. ..................... 16.70 19.00 1910o 19.11 727.17 702.87 750.23 743.30

M~~~n.4.0640,o . ................ 15IS45 15.76 10687 15.70 82573 0233,55 647.50 642.65

0509610.0......... 1620 10.47 10.61 10.52 659.34 00068 004.33 678.07W-d Pd54.0.......... ............ ... 12.37 12.76 12.02 12.78 407.27 519233 52005 525.2014,.14.lcflh.1-18d1,00c............. 15.59 10.01 15.01 15.00 650.40 673.51 675509 072,07Ph5.y 51. . ........ . ............ 17023 10 10 10.25 10.22 758044 752.50 771.63 772.03F.0.io.ldn1.1.Wpod.U.... ........ . 14.70 150.4 15209 15.02 001.55 605.12 WA71 014.73M.00.i.Aq..... . .............-..... 1507 16.35 16.43 16.35 645.10 642.10 675.27 607.00C-p8.0.r.AM p4oS .d. ~ ft ~.......... 10324 10.70 16.76 10.74 630.06 60630 6012.13 081.32EW.WW lmo14 w m.1 pp5.6046. 14.02 14.43 14,40 14.30 042.20 001.53 505.74 591.02

T610,I51 Mfl....t . 21.13 21.3D 2165$ 21.27 620.02 075 17 018.52 501635

7F.l5....4re.1.dp10086 ...... 12.74 13-05 13.11 13.02 491.78 51417 010.16 50008MOO.64,1401011600la.0........... .I 13-01 1328 1341A 13.50 506509 505.21 514.94 517605

..04 ................ ...... 14.27 1487 14.74 14.00 572.23 582-40 501402 507687Foodnla flOclll, -.. ..... .. 12.68 12.76 12608 12.71 560.13 507.37 016.49 504.50S-91go90d1t101 pd A .............. . 17.60 17.60 17.33 17.70 695009 806.1 86464 000.76T.0.ft550 .. ......... . .. . ....... 11.70 11094 l503 12,03 408603 462,08 475.95 470237T.oS10pld.ctf .................. . 110C2 11.47 11I.44 15.2 420 47 450.05 409904 459.59AP414- .W. .5 .0 7 9 70 327.57 336.233 320 51L.41.V., I4 ...7........ .... 11.01 11.73 11.70 11.03 426.50 465.12 4.43.20 460.85Popo WA4 PA0.0 p o . 17.05 17.48 70 17.55 71365 715506 731.42 731.64

Pdo1351011.1914440.4055600.. - 15.15I 152 155 1545 500531 B50.60 001.40 550.46P.ud- am 6060910006... ... 2236 22.01 23.53 22.75 1, 022.60 1.010.14 1.056.50 1.060.63

Ch k~ .. ....... ................ - 18,00 1061 18.66 18.60 765.00 715.34 763050 704006PI.t.S..ndn~bl psd ......... .... 13.85 14 .28 14.20 14.13 554.50 071023 58020 579.32

PnVt. ..O.40p0.i5duI ............... . 14.72 14.92 15505 15.50 476.02 406.39 .86612 406,12

Trod.. W18130 9 li AA0.51.5........... 14.13 14232 144.3 14.30 473.36 485.45 486022 402.50

V6h11..0I. ... . .... ..... 17.05 17.32 17.37 17.30 642,70 630.10 650232 658608

R41t05514...........11.78 11.50 12.01 51.0 301.65 373066 372.31 366.21

Tr..6

p0t" -d 4 odk1 .... ......... .. 15094 15.36 10836 16.38 50850 606096 600.50 807.70

1 0A...9-------..........--...... ...- 3303 24,78 25.11 2.052 965092 1.613.50 1.024.49 1.038032

lnl~~~~~l81450fl ..~~~~~~~2009 21.21 21.43 21.27 753.59 77477 775.77 773.50

PI,o00145006461 .... 16.48 17.30 51729 17.29 501.74 612.42 008.61 600.61

PIOI.405001114 6501405 8,0,0 . 16059 1700. 17.1. 17.14 577.04 501.06 579.33 57023

Ed..U.090.90 h.4ft08900. .. .. ... ... .. ..... 15.42 15.75 51.7a 15.80 450861 51503 5126 51350

L0i0. 940d004l..... ............ ... .65 8000 5.78 661 222.31 227,76 222.13 224660

Ol01.07410-, .... .......... I ...... . ...... 13.06 13.91 12590 13093 443052 443.73 443.48 441.00

I .960000181. w469 -2.

56

ESTALISHMENT DATA

Table8.4. Avi. hourly ering. o poducton orn up-irory w t.nprWint. rapayroll. by Induis etors ndseleted InnVy dtalil, aasanely djosted

w..y ~ ~~~~Oat June hop Aaa Sep od. Sh79 torn2002 200 2 2003 2003$ 033 s 203-

Tarot privte:Currem .o ar ........ $15.10 $1S0 $1542d 5 15.4 $1545 515.460 0. 1ConMl (19rU fdoo . ,' E.26 8 30 8.32 6.30 628 N.A (')

Oxd.r Cg .. .................... . . . i.14 t6.79 160B1 16.06 16.91 16.86 -.2

6.olfre tor t rd eMg , 17.21 17.60 17.62 17.69 17-71 17 74 2

C oriat, ........ _. _ _ . ........ . 166 ros6 1r.96 ro. 19.04 a.04 0

Maoulucng , , ... r . , ... . 1r.4S 15r72 15.73 1579 15.84 1s06 -.2Eodcdmguoverrobae .......... ............. 14068 149 t.9s 15.02 15.0 15.03 2

D .rtbteguoda ... . . . . 16519 1042 16.42 1649 16.56 16.51 -.3

andurwtbe gasi ...... . . . _ 14.29 14.63 14.66 10.70 14.71 14.71 .0

Pdrt.eler .e-prav.dorng . . . 1472 15900 15006 515.0 ross I 07 .1

Trde., Se-l.p alldr. arid utolis . . . 14.13 64.34 14.40 14.39 14r3 14.39 26

WhItlaned.. . .17.09 17.24 17.36 17.40 17.40 17 41 .1

Relased . . .... _......... 1177 11692 1690 11.96 116.95 11r94 -.1

Tronspatdleoo end wenihouiog ..................... .... 15.92 1630 16.40 16536 16.35 16538 .2

UU i . . . .23.96 24,62 24.73 24.95 24.91 25 06 .6

lttfarete . . . ..... ................. . . . 20.49 21.13 21.26 21.32 2130 21.31 .0

onclat atdsa ....... . ... 16 ....... ................ 16,51 17 17 17.33 173 11.31 17 .33 .1

PraIneiteawl *ndbu............. .. 16 99 17.22 1723 17-24 i7.22 17.26 .2

Edua.in .nd .e h ..rvl.es . . 15.42 15 67 15.72 15.76 15.77 15 81 .3

Leaata ed hoop;blty 6.... . .62 6.75 6.76 8.75 876 6.79 .1

Of.e..era -1300 .... _ 13 90 1399 398 13.98 13.97 -.1

'Sea orontoW 1. tbwn 8-22Th.Conourner rbIndi U0b-Wg E-en ard

Cerlcap Woraker (CPRM) a used W deWet Mte. .efle.6Ctngcc. .0.2 pr Il amAqg 20036 ISept 23003 rio

claro -onth ri is-.

I OD eWo by fining riot ovMrMire bow are peid 0t Ohe rol 0f

N.A. = nor anobtlD pimnltrory.

ESTABLISHMENT DATA

57

ESTABLISH9MENT DATA EOTABLISHMENT DATA

Tobl."99 n~. 10909 olyhosop0oto 1nneooor 5on 91000..,,py01 yn.9790 000.08.4 iO.y dt.8.

(2002.8101

] N W - 1 . .4.o.O I S9.09493I .4"994 _ _

1 02W23 53 1203 200200312 2903m I 2003 203 - Sep77t.29I -m - j I -- _IOc-20I

T." lpival ....... ....... .... 100.3 100.5 99.5 99.4 99.7 9897 9893 9897 997 99.8 0.4

Goodo-Podoog...................10899 99.0 99.9 9893 995 9953 095 99.0 9981 9599 -.2

NWN09crlo..oo..odnv8.................100.7 995 9893 99 0 97.7 9647 95.4 99.2 99.5 99.0 .5

Cocolos .....o.....so.c ....... ....... .~..53.9 107.9 100. 8049 ga7 998 90.9 99.9 09 995sga .1

M-fo8ocW,hV.................... . .... 99.4 94.7 999 992 9895 9000 94-1 94.1 94.5 94.3 -.2

D..bOl.g-f .. .............. .. ...... . 999 94.4 95.3 9590 9894 9498 93.8 9398 948 94.2 I1W-od plo89l ............ 8 ... ..... 00.9 100.3 10094 850D. 99.4 97.5 9953 97.9 979 9899 1.2N099,89oo.In-lopoo408. 801. -. ... 9lI 99.7 StO0 9593 9996 95.7 9396 94.9 93.7 93.7 .0P88L-4Y98...............I......... I999 91.4 92.9 98.9 99.9 93.4 91.9 91.7 9195 91.3 -I2F.Wb t~d *W 8.8.Ip o "' " . 99 5 94 3 94.9 9502 98.9 94.7 94.3 94.2 94.3 94.6 .3lv4.d08-y. ..7 ........ ............... .. 97-5 93 3 9496 93.9 99.2 99.0 93.6 94.3 95.1 94.9 -.9Cowc808o409008889 ............ . 97.2 94.7 93 3 93.2 97 2 9513 949 954 93 939D .48O0ao0 "u.9,i9488998 . ....... .... 97.9 909 999 920 97 3 97 98 9 989 982 98.3 .1T-p09t090988o0 -p0 ... ........... 99.5 9396 974 99%7 99.3 94.4 93,4 92.8 95.9 9581 -94F.0*W .o O0 d POWM ................ 965 942 94.7 9 699.9 92.9 93.0 93.2. 9396 93.4 .2Mio.Oocooo n.ft0f840 ......... .. 8..00.2 93.1 9532 93.0 9905 9996 94.4 93.2 92.9 92.3 9

No.0 W .0 t............................ . 999 99.4 99 0085 99.7 998 9472 94.4 94.4 9496 .2FOW -88f8890088 --0 . . 853. ......... 124 102 2 81034 80181 9953 9899 97.9 99.5 999 9998 ..19V8-0999474 . pooc0,odI ... ....... 9981 88.7 90.4 99.0 97.2 95.7 993 95.1 94.9 85.4 96T.Am '' n .4 .999 . ........ .. 9 8398 85.3 9320 99.5 97.4 93.2 939 939 92.7 .1.3T

.89ti498d9 .....4o . ..... ....... 994 9281 9599 9595 999 9355 946 9.89 9595 999 -.9App~r01 ............... 195.8 793 77.1 79~9 949: 79 2 77.4 79.2 79.0 7998 81L..80r.908480D88 . 00 99 99.5 9 999 97.1 91,0 9.1 8997 867 .0PoW.1049.,p~od0 -, . 99.9 92.9 94.2 9352 98.3 94.0 93.0 929 92.4 92.7 .3P90899d 41.lod -79pW0190089 . -.... 99 7 99 0 SO99 97.1 99.7 99.5 9599 99.5 9534 9598 .4Pet989- l8,d -48 p94d08. 8........... 01.9 80098 102.3 8039 800.0 9596 99.9 9995 99.3 10096 8.3Chmoo.w.............................99.4 9902 99.03 97.5 899.0 000 99.3 9996 99.9 98.2 -.7P9SSO..04fl89908p80dt085 .... ...... ...... 999 9598 97.3 97.7 994 99.1 9599 997 993 97.0 .7

Pd-t.8e..rc10..o .....9.. ............ 100.2 80098 99.5 99,9 100.1 99~5 99.2 099. 9996 99.9 .2

Tlo.0000vp998948,,.d040 ........... ... .. 00.7 99.2 9996 090 9996 97.9 9798 992 999 99.9 .0

Whd0.9494944 . ......................... 999 98-9 97.3 97.5 999 97.3 9781 97.2 97.0 9732 .2

Rw84981d4...............................99.4 100.7 9000 9956 99.7 99.9 9892 9950 9004 099 .2

T-p0948849908449090998..8..........00.7 97.3 99 4 994 99.9 969 97.3 97A 9890 98.2 .2

55l8s. .8 . ......... .... ...... 00.7 99.4 98.7 100.2 100.4 99.6 99.5 99.9 99.1 8008 2.0

....r.. .. ................. 998I 1991 99.2 99.0 99-4 99.9 00.5 00.2 9998 9998 9

Foord01t..0...... ..... 99.4 1020 8004 I80 00 -03 801.3 8084 8084 8083 801.0 -.3

Pl999080984l .db499-50008M09. -......... 108.0 100.1 003 99.9 99.9 9996 996 9893 999 99.9 .3

E&dOc.. .od h9.098 -m 9o .0...............10196 100.2 808.4 8933 101.0 89198 101.7 852.9 102.0 80296 6

Lo00.-9d999799lly .- ........... 99.3 107.3 99.7 995 800.6 989 9.8 981 98.6 99.9 994 .5

O890. 0088. .. ..........- ...... ..... .... 99.4 9001 97.3 97.5 005 993 97.9 9798 97.7 97-7 .0

'S 899994.81.tb.809.2. 990.p0880g2002.080100-09 I8.o8. A9g80908 h.. .9n00t9I0P61-. - tmh.o p99 .81000085994 -Q9..9 ..0889 88080500080909400

NOTE.388084900089g8094 .kwoly h...o -0 0088080 by -p.007.099y 99819 $8V0700..MNOTE: Th108099898 Of00g8'"W00.0009098890O 9

58

ESTABUSH4MEN DATA EWTA99SU48I6T DATA

Tabl 94. lode... .f agwegra erselry payrll. f mpductic or ro-rpenle-y nrkere -r pruvt. -ones, payrela by industry enter en

selected l.trdey deril

(20029100)

Nor soaeenaly adjued Os.-Hay edrerd

leduay Oar. A. t Ot Or Jue JI Se.2002 2~?i 29V M- 20 2 00 03 00 et 03

Torulyrlver..... s .............. 101.4 103.1 1030 102.8 100.7 10105 101.0 102.0 102.0 102.5 005

Goode-produrg .......... r............ 02,2 1020 103.1 102.0 99 4 99.0 98.4 99.1 9905 99.2 -3

Nelrrereeoarcaesd ftMlr.r..............10098 101.7 101.2 1016 97.6 9098 97.6 9098 992 99.9 .7

Cuoslru&zo .................. ....... 100.9 111.1 10998 109.3 9905 101.0 101.2 102.4 102.4 102.3 -.1

Me..nulalureg -............. " 100.4 970 99 4 99,3 9995 97.6 969a 97.2 97.0 970 .4

D-ba.agoeda -.................I...... 100.0 970 90.9 99.0 09.5 97.2 94.2 905 97.3 Ny.1 -.2

Nueduraorgrrd .... ............ 00........ O.7 0989 100.6 99,9 99.6 90.3 9705 9890 99.1 98.3 .2

Pdlv ..................... 101.2 103.2 102.9 103.2 rorA 1024 10oz5 103.9 103.0 103.2 .2

Ted. eraold.. .e...u........10005 101.4 101.0 101.0 100.4 10012 10005 100.9 1011 101.3 .2

VftII. MW .e......... ---- -------- N94 99.9 99.7 99.9 997 9905 99.4 9907 99.0 999 .3

Rtft~eu~ de................................100.3 102.7 101.9 101.4 1996 1010 10096 101.9 101.9 101.9 .1

T..V~oyotfooredeorelcrzoi........4. - 101.9 1999 103.0 103.3 19990 100.0 101.1 19007 10196 102.0 .4

.......... ....... . 199....... .. ID7 102.9 103.0 10493 199.0 1014 10198 102.9 102.1 104.7 205

...errec . ... .................. .... ¶009 1000 104.0 10395 100-7 1040 10496 10405 104.1 1041 .0

Frrsrdeiectmde. -.................. .. ...... 101.3 10993 107.4 107.2 102.4 107.0 199.7 199.7 109,4 199.3 -IPmeo.urar.- an brrerea .aeru. .. .......... 10105 101.4 1012 101.9 100.9 901.0 101.0 1909. 101.0 901.0 .0

Eduou-ori h.roresi,A .ae .................. 103.0 1037 100.1 107.3 102.3 104.6 199.1 106.2 109.7 1006 .9

L.e...u*MtsrOd ty ........ . 1902. 1994 1021 101.2 101.2 199.9 100.3 199.9 109.3 102-0 .7

Oth. .I ..... .... ......... ... .. .. D99 1900. 99.2 99.9 100.0 199.1 99.7 99.7 9996 994

10nlunN991, Mbl. -2.

Na peearlorY,NOTE: The.155 04- agmreer weld PYmbo~ Mr clcerared by

diu-rdug Ore curer -thnrlr sobrus ogerePeYrots by Ore

corpoodek 2002 acri -.ere. leves Agolsgst $lYr.Oleloeare ro ProduvlW atloare or ec-oa Iroy ,e9 ..avng weeklyirvi, a-e prduvlcr or. ruorirr -*fre errPrdYMler

ESTABLISH14ENT DATA

Tobl. 8-7. Dilos. W9490 ., wloy-mnl ch4.g.. .... 148y dpltd

(P~)

Tmi 5P-

01,. 1.m00th SP-On

1999 . ........ ... ... ...... ..2000 . ...20012002:_

2 0 0. .. ... _200681 .. ..........

2003 . _

2068 . ._ _ .:20002 ................ .......

200120 03 .......... .. .........

2002 . .. _ . .2003 .. ..

059 12monh 'P..:

1999 8.2000 .......................... ..... .. .......... .....2001 _2002 .2003 ..... ...

Ov. I-monh qwn:1999 .. _ _2000 .._2001 __ _2002 .._2003 .. ..........._

O0v- 32nth 0pan:

1899 _2001 _

19X 9 ....... ................................................

2002 .. _2003 . ..............

Ovar .912.11,801016

1 8 6 89 _ .. ......... ... .2000 ...... ...2001 . . __ _. I2002 .2003 .... .

Ov 12 moth sp-n1999 -.._........... ...... .I. ..

2002 ................ ........... ................. ...2003 _ _ ......... . . ......

J- I . 1 IA. I "4T I 1 I T * Iy 409. I S" I 0| I No. I De

58.3 64.7 56.7 66.8 64.2 51.9 63.3 59.9 57.6 64 69.1 64465.5 60.3 65.5 58s 47.7 61.7 65.5 52.9 52.3 84.1 57.7 53.2.2.3 49.6 48.6 385 41.4 3.1 356 36.5 39.0 35.6 37.6 38.040,5 37.4 37.6 41.0 41.7 43.7 390 417 43.3 43.9 42.4 37.244 2 3687 44.1 48.9 43.3 37.2 432 4a.8 '554 p4*.2

61.5 64.9 61.0 65.8 664 659.1 6.9 64.4 62.2 62.9 66.7 69670.1 b60 58.3 66.3 5s 5 56.3 6a 1 62.2 559 531 54.0 588384 9 50.7 50.5 43.5 37.2 368 0 362 3583 34.5 32.2 31 7 30 934 4 3853 36.5 35.4 36.7 38.8 387 41.4 38.1 38.0 37.5 34.9360 356 360 41.2 430 40A 37.0 34.5 41 7 462

6689 64.s 63.7 64.0 65.6 65.6 b6 7 66.2 6984 687 684 66567.6 68.7 71.4 71.9 608 562 67.3 604 583 55.0 61.0 5S52532 51'4 50.7 47.1 4298 38 3786 34.5 31.1 32.9 31.3 31.730.6 29.9 31.1 31.3 33.3 38.8 369 37 4 37 38.9 38.3 35837.4 38.5 35.1 34.7 37.4 36.5 307 35 1 3399 4043

70 5 69.7 82 90 6832 6 8 69. 680 680 678 698 68.3 69.170.9 69.2 732 710 698 718 700 70 3 70 6586 63b. 62.13.85 59 85 53.4 49.3 48.6 45.0 43.3 438. 38.9 37.8 371 34.933 6 31.7 30 2 30 2 30.4 30.6 306 31.8 31.5 30.0 33.5 33 333,8 33.3 345. 35.4 30.5 35.4 35 a 336 D383 3680

M990faaudg p 7409,54 ind I

42 360.624.419:036 3

33:954234.511.914.9

37.54702397.713.7

298aI8 I7.113.7

38.753922022.619.

40.854.924.411.915.8

32.751 224.428.914.3

32 139~3

60155

33.364.a24 4208274

37.9

17.6.7189

30.456s2707ai2.5

29.847020.8

60167

383429I43

339202

25:751 614320.216.7

33 357.117.98.9

11.9

321500o

19.071

13.1

18494d 09 -- WVdb d4Wtd dI D 84 1, 3,. I'd 6bmonhsp n 4d un-d4J d d0 u fo ft 12-mo90h Span.

I. p m "1841.NOTE: FiSg- -n1 [h. p.rnn. .0 4.940 050h ampbymon1

52438.914.3304304

41.711921417.9

36949414912.512.5

32.7426413 1737

1659

34.6

I9.32.1268

41114.3

20214.3

38 147:6II 9167118.5

32.152412.5

545891

580062°614 334 531.5

42.334:810728620.2

38.156013719613.1

345519a

1076.0

4528.613.725025.6

3482

7.70583

34.54409.5

19813.7

32.149.411.98.9

14.3

41.7244

31 0D29.8

41 129.28.3

25.D22.6

408538883

2398D 14.3

33346.411.9

.77131,I

50.935.81897

49.8

495

101.

4184351

178I 17.9

AO0510.1

8.5P8I89

56.0 519a41:.1 38.718.7 9821.4 25.0

49.4 56525 0 4238.9 9.3

149 10.7

41.134.5

6816.7

418135.1

4823106 0

4293336.01351

80 9 9.u 6 4 6 pl 99.9 01 9 001oft.94l8ndu 5n h 4h 4 darnploymw.8 .3 50 p6064,l Indlc . 40 ".W W4b .1-- be. - Ind.4 l04 -MO00sin9 4nd d9cr".m -mp50n9nl.

59

ESTABLISHMENT DATA

Pm61. -f.1,91 -.oa,. 278 Indu.5. '

_ __ ...... ... _. 0 I D I

60

U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Siaiistlcs2 Massachusets Ave. N E.Washmnglo., D.C. 20212

DEC 8 M

Honorable Baron HillU.S. House of RepresentativesWashington, D.C. 20515

Dear Congressman Hill:

At the November 7"" hearing of the Joint Economic Committeeon the Employment Situation, you asked if the Bureau ofLabor Statistics (BLS) has data on the change in earningsfor workers who lose a job in manufacturing and findemployment in other industries.

The Bureau has a biennial survey that collects informationon the number and characteristics of displaced workers as asupplement to the Current Population Survey. Displacedworkers are those who had lost or left jobs in the prior3 years because their plant or company closed, there wasinsufficient work, or their job was abolished. For thosewho were displaced, questions are asked about thecharacteristics of the jobs lost, including the industryand their earnings. The latest data collected in January2002 show that 2.3 million people were displaced from full-time wage and salary jobs in manufacturing during theperiod from 1999 through 2001 and that on those jobs theirmedian weekly earnings were $598. At the time of thesurvey in January 2002, about half of the 2.3 million hadfound full-time wage and salary jobs in manufacturing orsome other industry; the remaining half were out of thelabor force, unemployed, self employed, or working parttime. The median weekly earnings for those reemployed innew full-time wage and salary jobs were only $529.

I also promised to provide information about average salarylevels in the service sector versus the manufacturingsector. For these statistics, I will refer to the CurrentEmployment Statistics survey, which collects data from thepayroll records of employers. Average weekly earnings inmanufacturing were $645.86 in November 2003, the latestmonth available. Average weekly earnings in privateservice-providing were $490.10 and ranged from $226.27 inleisure and hospitality to $772.77 in information. (Seetable).

61

Honorable Baron Hill--2

DEC 8 3

Enmploymsent and aerage veeklyearnings of poeution or nonwuperwisoryworken In manufacturing and pivlte senice-prreidlng inas tries(Sewonally a4usted, empoyment In tsowands)

Average weekly Nov. 2001-earnings Nov. 2003

Industry Nov 2003 err. change

Manufacturing S645.86 -1.283

Private sevioe-providing 49D.10 371Trade. trsstsportation. and utilities 483.84 451Information 772.77 -272Firnancialactivities 611.31 127Professionaland business services 591.98 51Education and health services 516.99 788Leisure and hospitality 226.27 124Otherservices 444.25 4

Source Bureau of Labor Statistics, Cutrent Etnploynrnt Statistics Survey

The table also shows employment growth since the end of therecession in November 2001. Manufacturing employmentdeclined by 1.3 million during that time. Within privateservice-providing, education and health services added themost jobs, 788,000. Other gainers include financialactivities, professional and business services, leisure andhospitality, and other services. All of these industrieshave average weekly earnings lower than the average weeklyearnings for manufacturing.

I hope this information is helpful to you. Please do nothesitate to contact me if you have further questions.

Sincerely yours,

JOHN M. GALVINAssociate Commissioner forEmployment and Unemployment Statistics

0