johannes benigni's presentation slides from the 2010 world national oil companies congress
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Johannes benigni's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies Congress that took place in June in London.TRANSCRIPT
28 June 2010
Global Product Market TrendsThe Outlook for NOCs
Johannes Benigni Johannes Benigni JBC Energy GmbHJBC Energy GmbH
June 24, 2010June 24, 2010
Research Research -- Energy Studies Energy Studies -- Consulting Consulting -- TrainingTraining
World National Oil Companies Congress
28 June 2010 Slide 2
Disclaimer
All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements (including those depicted in graphical form) are statements of future expectations that are based on JBC Energy’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things statements expressing JBC Energy’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, “forecast”, “predict”, “think”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. All forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers/audience should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation. Neither JBC Energy nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation. Any persons acting on information contained in this presentation does so solely at their own risk. JBC Energy is not responsible for the accuracy of data collected from external sources and will not be held liable for any errors or omissions in facts or analysis contained in this presentation.
28 June 2010 Slide 3
Price Formation
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
Jun 09 Aug 09 Oct 09 Dec 09 Feb 10 Apr 10 Jun 10-10.00
-7.50
-5.00
-2.50
0.00
2.50
5.00
Nymex WTI Vs ICE Brent FL - right scaleICE Brent FLNymex WTI FL
Nymex WTI and ICE Brent (FL) [$/bbl]
Source: CME Group, ICE
28 June 2010 Slide 4
Price Formation
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
Oct-03 Jul-04 Apr-05 Jan-06 Oct-06 Jul-07 Apr-08 Jan-09 Oct-09 Jul-10
Light/Heavy to US
Light/Heavy to Asia
Light/Heavy to Europe (NWE)
Q1 2010 avg: $78.75/bbl
Arab Light/Arab Heavy Differentials By Region [$/bbl]
Source: Saudi Aramco
Outright price of WTI Cushing in Oct 2003:
$29.65/bbl
28 June 2010 Slide 5
Crude Prices & Markets
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
FloatingStorage
2009[mbbls]
end-Jan end-Feb end-Mar end-Apr end-May end-June end-July end-Aug end-Sept end-OctSource: JBC Energy estimate based on info from SSY, Platts, Charles R. Weber, Argus, WSJ, Gibson, Poten, Thomson Reuters
Estimated Oil in Floating Storage as of End-May 2010
USGC
WAF
EUROPE
18-22 million barrels crude
5-8 million barrels crude
7-10 million barrels crude
22 - 25 million barrels of middle distillates
Asia/Pacific
PG
48-52 million barrels crude
2-4 million barrels crude
9 - 11 million barrels of middle distillates
2 - 4 million barrels of middle distillates
Crudeend-Apr '09 100-105end-May'09 80-90end-Jun '09 65-70end-Jul '09 55end-Aug '09 40-50end-Sep '09 34-46end-Oct '09 40-45end-Nov '09 34-40end-Dec '09 40-45end-Jan '10 30-38end-Feb '10 25-30end-Mar '10 35-45end-Apr '10 50-70end-May '10 80-96
90-95
43-5555-65
33-4032-39
95-10075-85
Floating Storage [mbbls]Gas Oil/ Jet-Kero
20-2530-3550-5555-6045-5560-7085-95
28 June 2010 Slide 6
Demand – Short-Term Picture
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
Germany Italy France UK Spain US Mexico Brazil ArgentinaSouthKorea
Japan China India Taiwan Russia Iran SaudiArabia
2008 Gasoline Demand over Q1 2007 2009 Gasoline Demand over Q1 20072010 Gasoline Demand over Q1 2007 2008 Gas Oil/Diesel Demand over Q1 20072009 Gas Oil/Diesel Demand over Q1 2007 2010 Gas Oil/Diesel Demand over Q1 2007
2008/2009/2010 Q1 Gasoline and Gas Oil/Diesel Demand Change on Q1 2007 ['000 b/d]
Source: Official Data, JODI
28 June 2010 Slide 7
Demand – Short-Term Picture
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10
Gas Oil
Gasoline
Naphtha
Chinese Apparent Oil Product Demand ['000 b/d]
Source: Official Government Data, Thomson Reuters
28 June 2010 Slide 8
China Products
0.55
0.575
0.6
0.625
0.65
0.675
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-100.2
0.225
0.25
0.275
0.3
0.325
Gasoline+diesel output in % of total output
Naphtha+LPG+Jet/kero output in % of total output - right
Chinese Product Yields [%]
Sources: Official Government Data, JBC Energy calculations
28 June 2010 Slide 9
Demand – Long-Term Outlook
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
NorthAmerica
OECDEurope
OECD AsiaNon-OECDEurope
FSU EastAfricaCentral &South
America
Middle EastNon-OECDAsia
LPG Naphtha GasolineJet/Kero Gas Oil/Diesel Fuel OilOther Products
Regional Oil Demand Growth by Products 2009-2015 [mbpd]
28 June 2010 Slide 10
Demand – Road Transportation Fuels
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
2009 2020
Components of US Gasoline Demand 2009-2020 [mbpd]
2009 Refinery Based
Gasoline Demand
8.3 million b/d
Additional Demand for Bioethanol - 219,000 b/d*
*: energy adjusted
Change in Passenger
Kilometers and Travel Mode + 988,000 b/d
Change in the fleet structure (gasoline vs.
diesel)- 304,000 b/d
Hybrids, LPG, CNG, Full
Electric- 404,000 b/d
Efficiency Gain- 2.48 mbpd
2020 Refinery Based
Gasoline Demand
5.88 million b/d
28 June 2010 Slide 11
Demand – Road Transportation Fuels
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
2009 2020
Components of EU-27 Transportation Diesel Demand 2009-2020 [mbpd]
2008 Refinery Based Diesel
Demand3.7 mbpd
Additional Demand for
Biodiesel - 154,000
b/d*
*: energy adjusted
Change in Passenger Kilometers and Travel
Mode + 68,000 b/d
Change in Tonne
Kilometers and Freight
Mode+ 259,000 b/d
Hybrids, LPG, CNG,
Full Electric- 34,000 b/d
Efficiency Gain in Goods
Vehicles and Busses- 208,000 b/d
Change in the fleet structure (gasoline vs. diesel)-47,000 b/d
Efficiency Gain in
Passenger Cars
- 192,000 b/d
2020 Refinery Based Diesel
Demand3.4 mbpd
28 June 2010 Slide 12
Demand – Road Transportation Fuels
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
2.7
3.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
JBC Energy SuDeP - base caseModerate ScenarioHigh Impact Scenario
China Gasoline Demand - Electrification/Hybridisation Scenarios [mbpd]
By 2020, gasoline demand in the "high impact" scenario is 380,000 b/d lower than in the base
case.
Due to scrapped gasoline cars being replaced by EVs, demand growth continuous to flatten.
JBC Energy estimates
"Passenger car density" only relates to passenger vehiclesand does not take account of larger vans or LCVs
Scenario Fleet Size Fleet Share of EV Fleet Share of HEV Fleet Share of PHEVBase Case 85 million (60/1000 inh.) 6.0% 1.5% 1.5%
Moderate Scenario 85 million (60/1000 inh.) 10.0% 1.25% 3.75%High Impact Scenario 85 million (60/1000 inh.) 25.0% 7.5% 7.5%
Scenario Assumptions for 2020
General Assumption: Average fuel consumption will decline from 8.5 l/100 km to 5.5l/100 km by 2020
28 June 2010 Slide 13
6,683
5,404
4,097
282 444 472 1,220
1,886
2,858
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Scenario Actual Difference - right scale
Total Oil Demand - China ['000 b/d]
Oil demand is assumed to be a function of GDP, (retail) prices, and pre-period
demand
Scenario Demand based on constant oil price of $24.46 / bbl
LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Kero Gas Oil Fuel OilPrice -0.112 -0.072 -0.056 -0.060 -0.171 -0.219Income 0.101 0.210 0.414 0.741 0.409 0.144Demand (t-1) 0.950 0.802 0.586 0.000 0.692 0.950
(Retail) Price and Income Elasticities of Oil Demand used to calibrate Model - China
Scenario
28 June 2010 Slide 14
Demand – Fuel Oil
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Middle East C & S America Non-OECDAsia
FSU East Africa NorthAmerica
Europe OECD Asia
Gas OilFuel OilCrude Oil
Regional Change in Oil Consumption for Power Generation 2009-2015 [´000 b/d]
28 June 2010 Slide 15
Long-Term Bunker Fuel Outlook
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GlobalECA
ECA And Global Sulphur Limits [%]
Source: IMO
28 June 2010 Slide 16
Long-Term Bunker Fuel Outlook
World Shipping Routes
28 June 2010 Slide 17
Long-Term Bunker Fuel Outlook
100
75
60
90
50
1480
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
Global Impact of 0.5% (2025est)
Mediterranean (2020 est)
Japan & Korea (2018 est)
North Sea (2016 est)
US & Canada (2012)
Baltic Sea & English Channel(2006/07)
Impact of Regulation on Bunker Fuel Demand from 2015 onwards ['000 b/d, %]
XX
0.4%
0.4%
2%
XX%5%
32%
9%
Bunker Fuel Oil that has to be replaced by Gas Oil in 2015 or year or later year of new legislation['000 b/d]
Share of ships with scrubbers installed in 2015 or year or later year of new legislation [%]
28 June 2010 Slide 18
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 20300%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Gas Oil Demand Without AdjustmentShift from FO to GOFuel Oil Demand Before AdjustmentScrubber Implementation Rate
Regulatory Change and Bunker Fuel Demand & Scrubber Adoption rate [mbpd / %]
Long-Term Bunker Fuel Outlook
28 June 2010 Slide 19
Refining Capacity Outlook
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
OECD Oil Products DemandNon-OECD Products DemandOECD Refinery Capacity (forecast disregards likely shutdowns)Non-OECD Refinery Capacity
Oil Market's Shift from OECD to non-OECD - Demand & Refining Capacity [mbpd]
28 June 2010 Slide 20
Refining
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
US EU15 + Norway Japan South Korea India China Russia
Q1-2008 Q1-2009 Q1-2010
Q1 2008-2009-2010 Refinery Throughput in Selected Countries [million bpd]
Source: National Statistics
US Q1 2010 vs. Q1 2008: -750 kbdEU Q1 2010 vs. Q1 2008: -1.33 mbd
China Q1 2010 vs. Q1 2008: +1.35 mbdIndia Q1 2010 vs. Q1 2008: +630 kbd
28 June 2010 Slide 21
Refining
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Avg 05-09 20102006 20072008 2009
EU-15 & Norway Refinery Utilisation [%]
Source: Euroilstock
28 June 2010 Slide 22
Refining
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
IOCNOC
World Refining Capacity By Ownership, projects >50,000 b/d ['000 b/d]
78% of additional crude distillation capacity expected to come onstream is owned by NOCs.
28 June 2010 Slide 23
Refining
Selected Refining Capacity Increases in Middle East & Asia ['000 b/d]
SyriaExpected: 0Known: 380
ChinaExpected: 4.216Known: 9.351
EgyptExpected: 0Known: 350
IndiaExpected: 1.071Known: 3.931
IranExpected: 505Known: 1.215
IrakExpected: 230Known: 1.310
KuwaitExpected: 64Known: 14
LebanonExpected: 0Known: 100
LibyaExpected: 220Known: 960
OmanExpected: 0Known: 300
PakistanExpected: 250Known: 573
QatarExpected: 0Known: 250
Saudi ArabiaExpected: 1.200Known: 1.750
UAEExpected: 417Known: 417
YemenExpected: 320Known: 1.410
JBC Energy Expectation: 8.5 million b/dKnown projects: 22 million b/d
28 June 2010 Slide 24
FSU East Special
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2020 2008 2020 2008 2020 2008 2020 2008 2020 2008 2020
Russia Europe Middle East US OECD Asia World
Desulphuriatonconversion
Regional Comparison of Downstream Complexity [%]
28 June 2010 Slide 25
Refining Capacity Outlook
Refinery Shutdown Potential & Expected CDU Additions By 2020 ['000 b/d]
Source: JBC Energy estimates
Shutdown potential in '000 b/d
Resulting utilisation in 2020
-4500 84.2%
-400 87.0%
-3400 81.7%
-200 86.6%
-200 79.9%
-1800 87.1%
Asia
-300 80.7%846
731
723
375
2651
630
6310
Gross additions
-3654
331
-2677
175
2451
330
4510
Net change
Africa
Middle East
Europe
North America
FSU East
Latin America
28 June 2010 Slide 26
Product Balances, Flows & Margins
Major Non-OECD Asian Gas Oil/Diesel Flows (2008-2013-2018) ['000 b/d]
149 147 230
132 196 104
Only trade flows higher than 50,000 b/d
are displayed.
Source: JBC Energy estimates
200820132018
GasOil
Middle East
North America
C&S America
Europe254 210 203
FSU East
390290260
100120128
11116123060
64
106 OECDAsia
OECDAsia
Non-OECD Asia
Africa
28 June 2010 Slide 27
Thank You!
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