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Joel Montero Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting San Bernardino February 26, 2008

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Page 1: Joel Montero Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting San Bernardino February 26, 2008

Joel Montero

Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team

California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting

San BernardinoFebruary 26, 2008

Page 2: Joel Montero Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting San Bernardino February 26, 2008

Talking Points• What is the Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team (FCMAT)? • What Does FCMAT Do? • How Does FCMAT Respond to District and Other Requests? • What Sort of Data Analysis Does FCMAT Untilize?• How are Multi-Year Projections Created and Used? • What are the Basics of AB 1200 Oversight? • How Do Districts Typically Get Into Financial Trouble?• How Do Districts Assess What They Can Afford in the Collective Bargaining

Process? • What is the Latest with respect to the State’s Budget?

Page 3: Joel Montero Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting San Bernardino February 26, 2008

What is FCMAT?

• An Independent/External Public Agency of the State designed to Support Districts and COEs in areas that are related to:

School Finance

Human Resources

Data Management

Page 4: Joel Montero Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting San Bernardino February 26, 2008

What is FCMAT?

• A Small Core Staff composed of former School District and COE People (certificated and classified)

• FCMAT support is generally requested by School Districts

• FCMAT can be assigned by the COE, Superintendent of Public Instruction, or the Legislature

Page 5: Joel Montero Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting San Bernardino February 26, 2008

What Does FCMAT Do?

Solvency: The ability of a public agency to meet their financial obligations over time

Avoid Emergency Loans: Cash Insolvency

Page 6: Joel Montero Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting San Bernardino February 26, 2008

What Does FCMAT Do?

• Management Assistance by invitation• Technical Assistance-Help Desk and Remote• Professional/Product Development• California Schools Information Services (CSIS)• Fiscal Crisis Intervention

Page 7: Joel Montero Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting San Bernardino February 26, 2008

How Does FCMAT Respond to Requests?

• Online Job Management System (JMS) www.fcmat.orgStudy AgreementField WorkReport—Findings and RecommendationsOngoing support and follow up

• Job Data over time

Requests per Year (handout)

Total Number and Type (handout)

Page 8: Joel Montero Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting San Bernardino February 26, 2008

What Sort of Data Analysis does FCMAT Utilize?

• Fiscal Health Risk Analysis ToolContains both fiscal (number) and organizational impacts

Attempts to Identify the Potential Risk of Insolvency to the district

A Tool Among Other Tools and Indicators

Page 9: Joel Montero Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting San Bernardino February 26, 2008

How Are Multi-Year Projections Created and Used?

• FCMAT Budget Explorer™

External/Independent MYP Tool

Web Based Software Available to All

Uses Initial Assumptions from the SSC Dartboard

Direct Upload from the District’s Official Financial Information submitted to the CDE

Attempts to predict relative solvency over multiple years (1 to 5)

Page 10: Joel Montero Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting San Bernardino February 26, 2008

How Are Multi-Year Projections Abused?

• Garbage In, Garbage Out

Not Keeping the Assumptions Up To Date

Including Unrealistic Assumptions

Manipulation of the Numbers to Impact the Fiscal Bottom Line

• MYPs Require Constant Review and Analysis in order to Maintain their Viability as a Usable Tool

Page 11: Joel Montero Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting San Bernardino February 26, 2008

The Basics of AB 1200/2756

• County Office Review at a Minimum of Three Specific Data Collection Points

• Budget Approval

• First and Second Interim Reporting

• Positive, Qualified and Negative Certifications

• COE Must Assess Solvency for the Current Plus One or Two Years

• Disclosures

Page 12: Joel Montero Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting San Bernardino February 26, 2008

The Basics of AB 1200/2756

• Possible Actions Under a Qualified Certification

• Fiscal Expert Assignment

• Budget Analysis and New Financial Projections

• Approval of New Debt Issuance

• Longer Period of Review for Collective Bargaining Agreements

• Encumber all Contracts and Other Obligations

• Withhold Compensation from Superintendent and Governing Board

Page 13: Joel Montero Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting San Bernardino February 26, 2008

The Basics of AB 1200/2756

• Possible Actions Under a Negative Certification

• All Actions Under a Qualified plus:

• Develop and Impose a Budget in Consultation

• Stay or Rescind Any Action of the Board that is Inconsistent with Fiscal Recovery

• In Consultation with the District Develop a Fiscal Recovery Plan

• Assign a Fiscal Advisor

• May Not Abrogate any Provisions of the Collective Bargaining Agreement

Page 14: Joel Montero Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting San Bernardino February 26, 2008

The Basics of AB 1200/2756

• In the Event of Insolvency (Emergency Loan)

• Authority Transfer to the California Department of Education

• Assignment of a State Administrator

• Governing Board becomes Advisory Only

• Recovery and the Assignment of a State Trustee

Page 15: Joel Montero Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting San Bernardino February 26, 2008

How Do Districts Typically Get Into Financial Trouble?

• Overly Optimistic Estimates of the State’s Economy

• Overly Aggressive estimates of Enrollment, Attendance, ADA

• Failing to React Early Enough to Declining Enrollment

• Failure to Update Budget Assumptions

• Lack of Monitoring of Staffing Levels

• Underestimating Automatic Cost Growth

• Use of One-Time Money for Ongoing Expenses

• Adversarial Collective Bargaining Process

• Inadequate or Inaccurate Multi-year Projections

• Failure to Follow Through on Budget Decisions

• Poor Budget Monitoring

• Chronic, multi-year Deficit Spending

• Inadequate Reserves

Page 16: Joel Montero Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting San Bernardino February 26, 2008

How Do Districts Assess What They Can Afford in the Collective Bargaining Process?

• Big Picture

• Estimate Next Year’s Income• Enrollment (ADA)• Revenue Limit• Lottery• Special Purpose Funds• Local Income• Special Education

• Plan Next Year’s Expense• Actual Salary of Each Employee• Actual Benefit Cost of Each Employee• New Programs• Assumptions re: utilities, insurance, capital and equipment, etc.• Legal Costs

• What’s is the Balance?

Page 17: Joel Montero Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting San Bernardino February 26, 2008

How Do Districts Assess What They Can Afford in the Collective Bargaining Process?

• The More Granular View

• COLA 5.00%??

• Deficit Factor (0%?)

• Total Net Impact 5.00%

• Step and Column (~1.5%)

• Health and Welfare (1.5%??)

• Enrollment Adjustment (0%)

• Other Fiscal Impacts (0%)

• Total Available (absent change) 2%

Page 18: Joel Montero Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting San Bernardino February 26, 2008

How Do Districts Assess What They Can Afford in the Collective Bargaining Process?

• The More Granular View—2008-09

• COLA 4.94%

• Deficit Factor (6.99%)

• Total Net Impact (2.4%)

• Step and Column (~1.5%)

• Health and Welfare (1.5%??)

• Enrollment Adjustment (0%)

• Other Fiscal Impacts (0%)

• Total Available (absent change) (5.4%)

Page 19: Joel Montero Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting San Bernardino February 26, 2008

The Latest on the State’s Budget?• The Economy in General

• Fiscal Year 2007-08

• State of Fiscal Emergency

• Mid-Year Cuts?

• Fiscal Year 2008-09

• $16 billion projected state deficit

• Possible Suspension of Proposition 98

• ~$4 billion hit to Education

• Fiscal Year 2009-10

Page 20: Joel Montero Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance Team California Teachers Association Presidents Meeting San Bernardino February 26, 2008

Questions