Job Vacancy Durations Remain Near Peak LevelsMixed Signals on Labor Market Slack

Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago Booth School of Business

May 9, 2014

http://dicehiringindicators.com/

Source: Own calculations using data from the JOLTS http://www.bls.gov/data/#employment

DecennialCensusHiring

Source: Own calculations using data from the JOLTS http://www.bls.gov/data/#employment

Source: Own calculations using data from the JOLTS http://www.bls.gov/data/#employment

Source: Own calculations using data from the JOLTS http://www.bls.gov/data/#employment

Three-Month Moving Averages

Note: We can highlight different time periods, if desired.

Mean Vacancy Duration (Number of Working Days)By Industry and Time Period

 2001 to

20032004 to

2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to 2012 2013 Jan. 2014-

Mar. 2014Resources 12.0 12.1 17.8 17.9 13.7 18.9 18.9 21.6Construction 7.8 7.9 10.1 7.3 4.5 6.2 9.8 11.3Manufacturing 17.4 19.4 24.2 21.5 13.6 23.5 28.3 28.6Wholesale and Retail Trade 14.2 15.4 16.5 15.3 13.2 15.9 19.9 18.9Warehouse, Trans. & Utilities 18.5 15.4 21.1 20.8 10.5 18.1 22.4 19.2Information 25.9 31.7 45.2 34.5 24.8 41.1 36.5 36.6Financial Services 28.0 31.0 34.7 27.6 25.7 33.8 35.7 35.3Professional and Business Services 18.2 20.0 19.9 21.4 16.4 18.8 19.5 19.2Education 21.2 24.1 26.4 22.5 18.3 20.8 23.4 22.5Health Services 39.1 34.6 38.3 36.3 29.8 33.6 34.9 34.1Leisure and Hospitality 13.8 14.2 16.2 14.9 10.6 13.4 16.7 18.9Other Services 22.3 17.5 20.3 23.7 17.1 18.6 20.1 19.6Government 32.9 29.7 32.6 35.9 32.2 33.1 35.5 33.6Non-Farm 19.2 19.2 21.7 21.0 16.7 20.0 22.5 22.5

Recruiting Intensity IndexBy Industry and Time Period

 2001 to

20032004 to

2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to 2012 2013 Jan. 2014-

Mar. 2014Resources 0.99 1.08 1.03 1.05 0.70 1.01 0.98 0.98Construction 1.07 1.07 0.97 0.89 0.89 1.01 0.93 0.83Manufacturing 1.02 1.08 1.09 0.94 0.85 0.93 0.88 0.89Wholesale and Retail Trade 1.05 1.10 1.10 0.96 0.84 0.89 0.94 0.98Warehouse, Trans. & Utilities 0.96 1.13 1.11 0.93 0.93 0.96 1.01 1.11Information 1.10 1.05 1.13 0.87 0.82 0.92 1.04 1.04Financial Services 1.05 1.07 1.13 0.99 0.84 0.86 0.98 0.87Professional and Business Services 1.08 1.08 1.05 0.90 0.82 0.94 0.96 0.99Education 1.00 0.97 1.03 1.05 0.97 0.98 0.94 1.00Health Services 1.08 1.03 1.04 1.01 0.93 0.89 0.93 0.92Leisure and Hospitality 1.08 1.08 1.09 0.97 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.91Other Services 1.01 1.10 1.01 0.95 0.96 0.95 0.97 0.98Government 1.06 1.02 1.09 0.92 0.86 0.93 0.94 0.96Non-Farm 1.05 1.08 1.08 0.95 0.86 0.92 0.95 0.96Note: We can highlight different time periods, if desired.

Focus on Professional & Business Services Mean Vacancy Duration (Number of Working days)

By Industry and Time Period

 2001 to

20032004 to

2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to 2012 2013 Jan. 2014-

Mar. 2014Professional and Business Services 18.2 20.0 19.9 21.4 16.4 18.8 19.5 19.2Private 18.3 18.6 21.0 20.0 15.5 19.0 21.6 21.7Non-Farm 19.2 19.2 21.7 21.0 16.7 20.0 22.5 22.5

Recruiting Intensity IndexBy Industry and Time Period

 2001 to

20032004 to

2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to 2012 2013 Jan. 2014-

Mar. 2014Professional and Business Services 1.08 1.08 1.05 0.90 0.82 0.94 0.96 0.99Private 1.05 1.08 1.07 0.95 0.86 0.92 0.95 0.95Non-Farm 1.05 1.08 1.08 0.95 0.86 0.92 0.95 0.96

ReferencesDavis, Steven J., R. Jason Faberman and John Haltiwanger (2012), 

“Recruiting Intensity during and after the Great Recession: National and Industry Evidence,” American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings, 102, no. 3 (May), 584-588.

Davis, Steven J., R. Jason Faberman and John Haltiwanger (2013), “The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128, no. 2 (May), 581-622.

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