job erg sustainable city 27-7-11

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Sustainable Cities

Dan HoornwegLead Urban Advisor, World BankJune 16, 2011

[email protected]

THE WORLD BANK



Cities are adding three million residents each weekShenzen 30 years ago Shenzen today



Urban Population is increasing rapidly



Cities are drivers of economic growth



Cities have significant impact on GDP and GHG

emissionsPopulation(Millions)

GHG Emissions(M tCO2e)

GDP(billion $ PPP)

1. China: 1,192 1. USA: 7,107 1. USA: 14,202

2. India: 916 2. China: 4,058 2. 50 Largest Cities: 9,564

3 . 50 Largest Cities: 500 3 . 50 Largest Cities: 2 ,606 3 . C40 Cities: 8,781

4 . C40 Cities: 393 4 . C40 Cities: 2 ,364 4. China: 7,903

5. USA: 301 5. Russian Federation: 2,193 5. Japan: 4,354

6. Indonesia: 190 6. Japan: 1,374 6 . Top 10 GHG Cities: 4,313

7. Brazil: 159 7 . Top 10 GHG Cities: 1,367 7. India: 3,388

8. Russian Federation: 142 8. India: 1,214 8. Germany: 2,925

9 . Top 10 GHG Cities: 136 9. Germany: 956 9. Russian Federation: 2,288

10. Japan: 128 10. Canada: 747 10. United Kingdom: 2,176



Hierarchy of Sustainable Cities

Source: Henry Jewell



City Index: Philips



City Index: The Atlantic 1 New York 2 Toronto3 San Francisco4 Stockholm5 Sydney6 London7 Chicago8 Paris9 Singapore

10 Hong Kong11 Houston12 Los Angeles13 Berlin14 Tokyo15 Madrid16 Seoul17 Beijing

18 Abu Dhabi19 Shanghai20 Mexico City21 Moscow22 Santiago23 Istanbul24 Sao Paulo25 Johannesburg

26 Mumbai



City Index: Monocle

Monocle S elects H elsinki a s Most

L ive ab le C ity in the W orld

1 Helsinki2 Zurich3 Copenhagen

Monocle s Top Three Liveable Cities 2011



U rban form and density significantly impactenergy consumption



U rban Form Determines Cities Energy Efficiency

Source: Bertaud, A., and T. Pode, Jr., Density in Atlanta: Implications for Traffic and Transit (Los Angeles: Reason Foundation, 2007).



R apid urban growth requires enhanced planning and institutions

NairobiJohannesburgAddis Ababa

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

Houston

Philadelphia

Johannesburg

Addis Ababa

Nairobi

Mumbai

Urban Density (persons/sq km)

Source: Henry Jewell, Urban Development, World Bank, 2011 .

Shanghai s Density Atlanta s Density

By numbers

For example

2000 2010Urbanization in African Cities,



W orld Bank Activities in Sustainable Cities

Mayors Task Force on climate change and the urban poor

GHG Emissions Standard, in partnership with the U N

Urban Risk Assessment

City-Wide Approach to Carbon Finance

Eco2 Cities

Global City Indicators Facility

Joint Work Program with U NEP, UN-HABITAT and CitiesAlliance

Urban Metabolism



Mayor s Task Force on Climate Change, DisasterR isk and the U rban poor

Mayor s Task Force set up in December 2009,members include: Dar es Salaam, Jakarta, MexicoCity, and Sao Paulo

Objectives of the Task Force:o Improve the understanding of the linkages between

urban poverty, climate change and disastermanagement with a focus on the delivery of sustainable basic services

o Identify good practice examples where vulnerabilityhas been reduced

o Identify financing opportunities for cities to addressthese issues

Approach: Global study and 4 city level case studiesunderstanding urban risk

Dar es Salaam

Jakarta

Mexico City

Sao Paulo



Climate Change Adaptation and Natural

Disasters in North Africa

Source: Tony Bigio. 2011. Adaptation to Climate Change and Natural Disasters in the Coastal Cities of North Africa



SECTOR Climate ScenarioDRY W ET

Agriculture, forestry, fisheries 2. 5 2. 6

W ater supply 19 . 7 14 . 4Human health 1 . 5 2. 0Coastal zones 2 7 . 6 2 8 . 5Infrastructure 13 . 0 2 7 . 5Extreme events 6 . 4 6 . 7Total 71 .2 81 . 5Adding costs differently 70 . 0 100 . 0

2005 Constant Prices, 0% DiscountingSource: World Bank Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change

Annual global costs of adaptation, by sector2 010- 2 050, in U SD billions

Adaptation costs will largely be in urban areas.



Greenhouse Gas Standard for calculating emissionsA open, global protocol for attributing GHG emissions isneeded in order to establish baselines and monitor progress

Proliferation of protocols and methods for city GHGinventories

e.g. ICLEI USA; Bilan carbone (France); Project 2 Degrees(CCI); GRIP (Europe); CO2 Grobbilanz (Germany)

Launched at World Urban Forum in Rio, March 2010; now inpartnership with C40

Work ongoing with client cities, in conjunction with WBGregional operations

Amman, Bangkok, Dar es Salaam, Jakarta, MexicoCity, Quezon City, Sao PauloInterest from EAP to work with a number of Chinesecities



City GHG emissions per capita



W hich neighborhood has the lowest GHG emissions?

Whitby 13.02 tCO2e/cap (residential only)

East York 1.31 tCO2e/cap ( residential only) Etobicoke 6.62 tCO2e/cap ( residential only)



U rban R isk Assessment

InstitutionalInstitutionalAssessmentAssessment

HazardHazardAssessmentAssessment

SocioeconomicSocioeconomicAssessmentAssessment

Legal FoundationsNational/ R egional

Frameworks

Basic Information ;Land U se, Basic

Services, Geophysical

DemographicInformation

Institutional mapping fordisaster risk and climate

change

Hazard analysis for citySocioeconomic analysis of

city residents

Interventions analysis; keyresources, policies, tools,programs, coordination

Hazard exposure mapsIdentification of vulnerable

areas

Interventions gap analysisRisk modeling for natural

hazards and climate

change

Community profiles andSlum mapping

Adaptive capacityassessments;

fiscal t ransfers

Probabilistic riskassessment software

Household hazard andvulnerability surveys

CCOOSSTT

CCOOMMPPLLEEXXIITTYY



Adaptation Cost Curves

Source: ClimateWorks Foundation, Global Environment Facility, European Commission, McKinsey& Company, The RockefellerFoundation, Standard Chartered Bank and Swiss Re. (2009) Shaping Climate Resilient Development; a framework for decision-making.



Marginal Abatement Cost Curves

Source: McKinsey 2009.



City-wide Approach to Carbon FinanceDraw on existing methodologies to combine projects across differentsectors in a single carbon finance program of activities

The methodology is currently being piloted in Amman and is underreview by the CDM board.



Global City Indicators Facility

Bank-initiated, with over 10 partners and piloted in 9 cities

Global City Indicator Facility established in October 2008 at theUniversity of Toronto to oversee the Program

City-led program: cities actively participate through collection andanalysis process

A single comprehensive system for measuring and monitoring cityperformance and quality of life that will:o Enable elected officials, city managers, and public to monitor

the performance of cities over timeo Facilitate comparisons across cities and over timeo Foster information sharing and learning across cities

Over 100 cities across 35 countries have joined



W ater Supply

Fossil Fuels

N atural GasFuel Oil LPG Kerosene Diesel Oil Gasoline Jet Kerosene

Marine FuelOil

2,143 TJ 12,998 TJ 1,910 TJ 1,640 TJ 26,236 TJ 20,187 TJ 12,709 TJ 668 TJ

180 MCM/a

73 MCM/a

ElectricityGeneration

Consumption5,500 GWh

T&D Losses

770 GWh

W astewater

Aviation & Marine

3,766 ktCO 2 e

983 ktCO 2 e

1,012 ktCO 2 e

Landfill W aste

669 kt

Greenhouse GasEmissions

Carbon Dioxide 9,136 ktCO 2 e

Methane 1,029 ktCO 2 e

N itrous Oxide 92 ktCO 2 e

10,256 ktCO 2 e

20.4 MJ/m 2

Total Radiation

Organic Waste 294 kt

Paper, Cardboard, Textiles 197 kt

Plastics, Glass, Metal 136 kt

Other Materials 42 kt

Renewables 34 GWh

Fuel Oil 2,744 GWh

Diesel Oil 19 GWh

N atural Gas 3,472 GWh

6,270 GWh

61 ktCO 2 e

1,008 ktCO 2 e520 ktCO 2 e

2,906 ktCO 2 e

Cropland

Manufacturing & Industry

Commercial, Institutional & Residential Road

Transport

Amman, JordanUrban Metabolism

Source: L. Sugar 2011.



Cape Town, SouthAfricaUrban Metabolism

Source: L. Sugar 2011.



Financial Flows for Climate Action in Developing Countries

Source: Atteridge et al. (2009 ). Bilateral Finance Institutions and Climate Change: A Mapping of Climate Portfolios, Stockholm Environment Institute.



A growing menu of climate finance instruments

Adaptation

The AdaptationFund

Special ClimateChange Fund

Global Facility forDisaster Risk

Reduction & Recovery

Least DevelopedCountry Fund

Mitigation

GlobalEnvironmentalFacility (GEF)

Carbon Funds

Carbon PartnershipFacility

Forest InvestmentProgram

Forest CarbonPartnership Facility

Scaling UpRenewable Energy

for the Poor

Clean TechnologyFund

Pilot Programfor ClimateResilience

GlobalEnvironmentalFacility (GEF)

RiskInstruments



Climate Finance Options for Cities



Matching:A professional dating service thatautomatically matches urban policymakers,decision makers and technical professionalsto each other worldwide.

Messaging:Get in direct contact with your counterpartsin other cities.

Communities of Practice:Community-based Q&A.

1. CONNECTIONS

Exchange:Tightly-focused videoconferences on themost knotty knowledge gaps.

Policy insights:New collaborative research on policy-relevantquestions.

Briefings:Pithy summaries of knowledge exchangeevents, and expert viewpoints.

2 .KNOWLEDGE

Indicators:Common indicators to benchmark citiesfor international comparisons.

Integration with Open311 and Google:Open access to municipal-level data.

3 . CITIES DATA

Our Objective

UrbanKnowledge.Org aims to put the world s best knowledge and data in the hands of policymakers andpractitioners,in order to harness urban growth for better development outcomes.

Our 3 Components

Our 4 Thematic Pillars

ECONOMIC: rural-to-urban transition.

Happens once in a country's lifetime...but how can it best be facilitated foreconomic growth?

ENVIRONMENTAL: sustainable urbangrowth

Low-density cities are hardwiringenvironmental costs

...so how to manage urbanization toimprove sustainability?

GOVERNANCE: creating accountable citiesand townsPoorly governed cities don t deliver on thepromise of urbanization...so what systems of governance are suited

for managing urbanization?Pillar 1 Pillar 2 Pillar 3 Pillar 4

SOCIAL: social inclusion and mobility

Urbanization embodies structuralinequalities...so how to incorporate the urban poor in

a city's economic fabric?

Meet our Partners:

And you?

U rbanization Knowledge Platform



Climate change is an important cross-cuttingproblem, but it is also one among many .

Figure: Exceeding the safe operating space in global environmental systems The green circle above represents the proposed safeoperating space for each system above. Red shading denotes an estimate of the current status of each. The boundaries rate of

biodiversity loss, climate change and human interference with the nitrogen cycle are far beyond the safe operating space(Rockstrom et al 2009).

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job erg sustainable city 27-7-11

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