jittipat poonkham faculty of political science thammasat university ukraine in transit: from...
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Jittipat PoonkhamFaculty of Political Science
Thammasat University
Ukraine in Transit: From Euromaidan to Eastern Question
MH17 Incident
Outline
• Structural vs. Immediate Cause • Russian Interests in Ukraine • From Euromaidan to anti-Maidan– Crimea – Eastern Question: Donetsk and Luhansk
• Conclusion
Euromaidan and Its Discontents:Explanations
• Structural Explanation• Immediate Explanation
I. Structural Explanation Ukraine (as Borderland)?
• Politics of Regionalism: West vs. East– West: Ukrainian-speaking; agricultural; catholic – East/ South: Russian-speaking; industrial; Russian
Orthodox • Politics of Elections • Politics of foreign policy orientations: pro-
European vs. pro-Russian
Viktor Yanukovich (Party of Regions: 48.98%) – Yulia Tymoshenko (Fatherland: 45.47%)
Politics of Foreign Policy: Historical Cycles
• 1991-1994: Leonid Kravchuk – pro-European • 1994-2004: Leonid Kuchma – pro-Russian • 2004: The Orange Revolution • 2004-2010: Viktor Yushchenko – pro-European
• 2010-2014: Viktor Yanukovych – pro-Russian
Russian Interests in Ukraine
• The right of the Russian-speaking compatriots– Near abroad as “a sphere of privileged interest”
• Energy factor– Ukraine as a transit state – Politics of pipelines
• The Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol• Ukraine within the Eurasian Customs Union
(by 2015) • Keep NATO out
Ukrainian-Russian Relations under Yanukovych (2010-2014)
• February 2010: Viktor Yanukovych (Party of Regions) won the presidential election. – April 2010: Kharkiv Accords – Sevastopol lease
extended 25 years to 2042 for cheaper gas.– against NATO membership – Jailed Yulia Tymoshenko in 2011 for “abuse of
office” – Favored a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade
Agreement (DCFTA) and an Association Agreement with the EU
II. Immediate Cause
EU(Associatio
n Agreement)
(DCFTA)
Russia
Viktor Yanukovych
II. Immediate Cause
EU• Small number of loans • With heavy strings attached• The austerity measures
Russia • $15 billion in soft loans;
cheaper natural gas • No strings attached
Viktor Yanukovych
The Euromaidan “Revolution”
Euromaidan: Timeline
• 21 Nov. 2013: Yanukovych’s deferral of Ukraine’s European integration
• 21 Nov. 2013-21 Feb. 2014: the emergence of the Euromaidan
• State violence: Three Events – (1) 30 November 2013 – (2) 16 January 2014– (3) 18-21/22 Feb 2014: The “February Revolution”
• 82 dead and many wounded
• 21 Feb 2014: a deal?
Maidan Nezalezhnosti
Euromaidan: Two Interpretations
• Horizontalism – peoples’ participation– The role of social media
• Elite politics –Opposition parties –mass mobilization
Euromaidan: Sociological Make-up(Data: Fond Democraticnich Iniciatyv)
• Average age: 36 years old• High education • Ukrainian speaking, with some Russian
speaking • 57.2% male; 42.8% female • 49.8% came from Kiev; the remainder from
other regions
Euromaidan: Sociological Make-up(Data: Fond Democraticnich Iniciatyv)
• More than 92% of Euromaidan participants did not belong to any political party; joined the movement for following reasons:– 70% because of the aggression against students
during the night of 30 November – 53.3% to protest against the decision not to sign
the Association Agreement with the EU – 50% to change their lives for the better – 39% to change those in power in Ukraine
Euromaidan: Sociological Make-up(Data: Fond Democraticnich Iniciatyv)
Language Russian Ukrainian Both Difficult to say
25.90% 54.60% 18.60% 0.90%Education Professional
training Basic Education
Higher Education
Still Studying
22.10% 14.40% 62.70% 0.80%Age 15-29 30-54 55 or older
38% 49% 13%Sex Male Female
57.20% 42.80%
I. Horizontalism: Civil Resistance
• Economic boycotts of business associated with the Yanukovych regime
• Building and expanding citizens’ media• “Automaidan” • Neighborhood Watch Groups • The Open University of Maidan: lectures and
discussion • “Euromaidan SOS” • Occupy Movement• Music: e.g. “Vitya Ciao” (Goodbye Viktor)
II. Opposition Elites in EuromaidanFatherland
(Batkivshchyna) – Yulia
Timoshenko
Svoboda (fascist Nazi)
– Oleh Tyahnybok
UDAR (“Punch”) (Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reforms)
– Vitali Klischko
Opposition leaders Vitali Klitschko, Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Oleh Tyahnybok
Fascist Movement
• Militarization of the protest – Self Defence
(Samooborona) – Right Sector (Pravy
Sektor)• Symbols: the black-
and-red flag (Ukrainian Nazi)
A Deal (21 Feb)?
• Talks between government and opposition • Mediators: foreign ministers of Germany,
Poland and France • An agreement – A return to the 2004 Constitution (parliamentary
system)– Increasing the power of the Rada – Calling presidential election by December 2014
New Interim Government:Fatherland + Svoboda
President Olexander Turchynov PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk
A Breakdown of the Deal?
• Impeachment of Yanukovych • Criminalization of Yanukovych and his comrades
(of Party of Regions) -- > ICC • Early presidential election: 25 May 2014 • New laws – banning the Russian language as a second language – Disbanding the Berkut riot police
• Challenging the status of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet
Causes – Consequences?
•Protest: Euromaidan •State violence by the Yanukovych government
•A temporary deal •A Breakdown of the Deal: Marginalizing the Russians
•Russian Responses -- > military presence
The Rise of Anti-Maidan
• The East: Donetsk/ Luhansk/ Kharkiv
• The South: Crimea • Symbols: Russian flags,
regional flags • A battle between
Euromaidan vs. anti-Maidan protesters
Crimea – Simferopol/ Sevastopol
• Pro-Russian protesters vs. Tatars
• 26 Feb. confrontation in front of the local parliament
Russian Responses?
Russian Responses
• 26 Feb: Military exercises near border to prepare for a potential “crisis situation”
• 1 March: Russian Parliament unanimously votes to send troops to Ukraine
• More than 13,000 Russian naval personnel in Sevastopol
• Russian Parliament introduced a law allowing for regions to join Russia by referendum if its host country does not have a “legitimate government”.
Putin’s Speech (4 March)
• An “unconstitutional coup”
• Russian troops as “self-defence groups”
• A “humanitarian mission” to protect Russian peoples
• Yanukovych as the legitimate president; no political future
From Euromaidan to Anti-Maidan
• (1) Crimea • (2) Eastern Question
I. The Crimean Referendum
15 March: UN Security Council
• Russia vetoed UN Security Council Resolution condemning Crimea referendum
• China abstained.
16 March: 96.8% for joining Russia
18 March: Russia-Crimea Treaty
Western Reaction
• Sanctions and travel ban (17 March) • UNGA Resolution (27 March)
II. The Eastern Question
The Eastern Question
• 7 April 2014-present • Pro-Russian militants (Donetsk/ Luhansk)– Occupied government buildings – Declaring independent “Peoples’ Republics”– Regional referendum in May
• 15 April: Ukraine’s “antiterrorist” operation• 17 April: Geneva accord • Violence • 11 May: Donetsk and Luhansk declared
independence after referendum
25 May 2014: Petro Poroshenko
Ukraine under Poroshenko
• Attempts to reestablishing Russia-Ukraine relations – 6 June: Putin and Poroshenko called for a quick end to
the bloodshed in eastern Ukraine – 25 June: Putin cancelled a parliamentary resolution
authorizing the use of Russian forces in Ukraine • 16 June: Russia’s gas cutoff • 20 June: Poroshenko’s 15-point peace plan and
unilateral (one-week) truce• 27 June: an Association Agreement with the EU
Shooting Down Military Planes
• 2 May: two military helicopters in Slavyansk, two killed
• 29 May: a military helicopter in Slavyansk, 14 killed
• 14 June: a military plane in Luhansk, 49 killed • 24 June: a military helicopter in Slavyansk, 9
killed • 14 July: a An-26 transport plane in the east
Conclusion?
• Weak State?– Failed State? – Bankrupt state? = loans with high strings attached
(IMF)? • Federalization or decentralization as a way
forward? • Russian-Ukrainian War?• International Military Intervention?
Conclusion: A divided Ukraine in a divided Europe?