NMME Progress and Plans

Jin HuangNCEP Climate Test Bed (CTB)

February 12, 2014

AcknowledgementCTB/SAB, NOAA/CPO, NCEP, NMME Team, and other US contributing agencies (NSF,DOE, and NASA) and Canada.

What is NMME?

NMME Phase-I: An experimental system initiated as a Climate Test Bed (CTB) research project supported by NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) in FY11.

NMME Phase-II: An improved experimental system as a FY12-FY13 MAPP/CTB research project with additional support from NSF, DOE and NASA.

NMME Expansion Project in High Impact Weather Prediction Pilot (HIWPP) Project from Sandy Supplemental Fund

All participating models strictly follow the same protocol and re-run hindcasts after each model upgrade

North‐American

3

Phrase-I NMME Forecast ProvidersModel Hindcast

PeriodNo. of

MemberArrangement of

MembersLead

(months)

Model Resolution:Atmosphere

Model Resolution:

OceanReference

NCEP-CFSv2 1982-2010 24(20)4 members (0,6,12,18Z)every 5th day

0-9 T126L64 MOM4 L40 0.25 deg Eq

Saha et al. (2010)

GFDL-CM2.1 1982-2010 10 All 1st of the month 0Z 0-11 2x2.5deg L24 MOM4 L50

0.30 deg EqDelworth et al. (2006)

CMC1-CanCM3 1981-2010 10 All 1st of the month

0Z 0-11 CanAM3 T63L31

CanOM4 L40 0.94 deg Eq

Merryfieldet al. (2012)

CMC2-CanCM4 1981-2010 10 All 1st of the month

0Z 0-11 CanAM4 T63L35

CanOM4 L40 0.94 deg Eq

Merryfieldet al. (2012)

NCAR-CCSM3.0 1982-2010 6 All 1st of the month 0-11 T85L26 POP L40 0.3

deg EqKirtman and Min (2009)

NASA-GEOS5 1981-2010 11

4 members every 5th days; 7 members on the last day of the previous month

0-9 1x1.25deg L72 MOM4 L40 1/4 deg at Eq

Rienecker et al. (2008)

Upcoming new/upgraded models:•NCAR-CCSM4: May 2014•GFDL-FLOR: March 2014•NCAR-CESM1: April 2014

Current NMME Forecast Providers

www.nws.noaa.gov

Home Site Map News Organization Search Go

HOME > NMME Forecasts of Monthly Climate Anomalies

Welcome to the National Multi-Model Ensemble home!

Data and Current Forecasts

3-month mean spatial anomalies1-month mean spatial anomalies

Niño3.4 PlumesInternational MME

Experimental: Probability forecasts

NMME Realtime Forecasts ArchiveNMME Phase-I Hindcast Data

About the NMME

Description of the NMMEPhase-I Forecast Models

CTB Activities & DocumentsJoin the NMME mailing list

NMME real‐time seasonal forecast since August 2011 following CPC operational schedule

Monthly telecons to discuss research and operational topics

NMME Data Available to Users

1. Realtime forecasts from CPC website• http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/

2.    Phase‐I Reforecast data in IRI website available now• Monthly Mean of 30 year reforecast• 8 variables (P, T, SST, Z200, Tmax, Tmin Soil Moisture, Runoff )• http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/

3. Phase‐II Reforecast data in NCAR • Complete monthly Mean of 30 year reforecast• Comprehensive daily reforecast data of selected (189 ) variables• https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/search.html?Project=NMME

July 1 startDJF SST forecastRanked Probability Skill Score based on 30-year NMME hindcast data

(B. Kirtman et al.)

NMME

CFSv2

Comparison of CFSv2 skill vs NMME

T2m October Starts JFM Verification

NMME Increases Forecast Reliability

Testing the hypothesis that single-model skill equals multi-model skill of NINO3.4 hindcasts

Skills of NINO3.4 hindcasts come more from more models than more members (T. Delsole)

9CFSv1(1)+IRIa(1)+IRId(1)+CM2.1(1)+GEOS5(1)+CFSv1(1) vs. CCSM3(6)

All Others (24 Member Ensemble) vs. CCSM3 NMME BenefitsCCSM3 Ensemble

CCSM3 BenefitsNMME

Complementary Correlations

RT verification: CONUSYear 1 Year 2

T2m

Prate

NMME Forecast Skill VerificationReal-time forecast since Aug. 2011

RT verification: CONUSNMME Real-time Forecast Verification

NMME precipitation forecast for Jan. 2014 is goodTforecast is not so good (Emily Becker)

SPI Forecastsbased on  NMME 

201401

12

SPI3

Feb 2014

Jan 2014 SPI6 Jan2014

Feb 2014

NMME Drought Forecast Products

CCSM3

CCSM4

Status and Impacts of Model Upgrades

Hindcast Evolution of NINO3.4 in CCSM3 and CCSM4 based on 30‐year (1981‐2010)  hindcasts

GFDL FLOR for CPC operation in May,2014)

NCAR/CCSM4(scheduled for CPC 

operation in May 2014)

Testing NMME Sub-seasonal Forecast Protocol

Experimental Protocol•45-day Reforecasts 1999-2012,•November-only•Initializations (every 5 days) on 2nd, 7th, 12th, 17th, 22th, 27th

•At least 3 ensemble members (perturbations decided by individual modeling groups)•Limited set of variables: SST, U200, U850, OLR, Precip, MSLP, Z200

Participating Modelsa)NCEP-CFSv2b)NASA-GMAOc)RSMAS/NCAR-CCSM4d)NCEP-EMC GEFSe)Canada?

Goal:•To demonstrate the potential benefit of a subseasonal NMME in a retrospective context •To provide a framework for a future real-time subseasonal NMME

(After Kathy Pegion)

NMME Near‐Term Plans

• Sustain and improve the experimental NMME seasonal forecast system• Documents on “Operationalize NMME” and “Vision and 5-Year Plan

for NMME” are developed• New/upgraded models; optimizing the system; application products

•Community efforts to analyze the NMME Phase-II data • A CMIP type data for ISI time scales (available in July 2014)

•Develop NMME sub-seasonal forecast capability• Linkage/contribution to S2S project

•A community-wide NMME workshop (possibly 2015) for planning NMME Phase-III

OperationsOperationsResearchResearch

• Improved operational prediction capabilities by leveraging model development and expertise from the research community

• Openly distributed hindcast and real‐time data following strict protocol

• Operational setting foro model diagnosis and evaluations o climate predictability and prediction research

R2O

O2R

NMME Benefits and integrates Research and Operations

AONCEP Co-PI

LOIProposal

R2O

O2R

Improved products and

services

Research OperationsClimate Forecast

ProductsMME

CFS Improvements

• Reanalysis / Reforecasts

• Earth System Modeling

• Tropical oscillations

• Model physics

• Etc.

Res

earc

h To

pics

AONCEP Co-PI

LOIProposal

R2O

O2R

Improved products and

services

Research OperationsClimate Forecast

ProductsMME

CFS Improvements

• Reanalysis / Reforecasts

• Earth System Modeling

• Tropical oscillations

• Model physics

• Etc.

Res

earc

h To

pics

AONCEP Co-PI

LOIProposal

R2O

O2R

Improved products and

services

Research OperationsClimate Forecast

ProductsMME

CFS Improvements

• Reanalysis / Reforecasts

• Earth System Modeling

• Tropical oscillations

• Model physics

• Etc.

Res

earc

h To

pics

AONCEP Co-PI

LOIProposal

R2O

O2R

Improved products and

services

Research OperationsClimate Forecast

ProductsMME

CFS Improvements

• Reanalysis / Reforecasts

• Earth System Modeling

• Tropical oscillations

• Model physics

• Etc.

Res

earc

h To

pics