jesÚs jasso aguilar bachelor of statistic · 2020. 10. 17. · 3,589.77 tingÜindÍn (tocumbo)...

Bachelor of Statistic Jesús Jasso Aguilar

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA

BALANCE OF FRUIT 2012-2013 2st STAGE

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF

HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE

STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO

EXPORT TO THE USA BALANCE OF FRUIT 2012-2013 2st STAGE

January 2013

JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR

Bachelor of Statistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA BALANCE OF FRUIT

2012-2013 2st STAGE

CONTENTS

AREA CERTIFIED FOR EXPORT TO USA BY MUNICIPALITY IN THE STATE OF MICHOACAN APPLIED IN THIS STUDY (2st STAGE) .............................................. 3

DISTRIBUTION OF ACRES AND ORCHARDS OF ALTITUDE ABOVE SEA LEVEL 4

DISTRIBUTION OF AREAS AND ORCHARDS BY STRATA..................................5

DISTRIBUTION OF STRATA BY ALTITUDE ABOVE SEA LEVEL ..........................6

ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION (BALANCE) ..................................................... 7

PRODUCTION TRENDS BY MUNICIPALITY .......................................................8

GRAPHIC OF TREND IN THE PRODUCTION BY MUNICIPALITY........................9

TRENDS OF PRODUCTION BY STRATUM ....................................................... 10

TRENDS IN PERFORMANCE PER ALTITUDE ABOVE SEA LEVEL...................... 11

DENSITY OF TREES PER ACRE AND TREES IN PRODUCTION ..........................12

DENSITY OF TREES PER ACRE AND TREES IN PRODUCTION ......................... 13

PROFILES OF THE ORCHARDS ........................................................................ 14

PICTURES OF TRAINING TO EQUIPMENT TO THE SAMPLING ....................... 19

PICTURES OF FIELD SAMPLING ......................................................................20



2012-2013 2st STAGE

AREA CERTIFIED FOR EXPORT TO USA BY MUNICIPALITY IN THE STATE OF MICHOACAN APPLIED

IN THIS STUDY (2st STAGE)

MUNICIPALITY SURFACE (ACRES)

ACUITZIO 2,460.38

APATZINGÁN 1,393.48

ARIO DE ROSALES 23,388.43

COTIJA 2,258.79

LOS REYES 6,019.68

VILLA MADERO 790.74

NUEVO PARANGARICUTIRO 11,790.58

PARÁCUARO 374.19

PERIBÁN 12,830.50

SALVADOR ESCALANTE 23,182.51

TACÁMBARO 11,317.62

TANCÍTARO 41,145.91

TANGAMANDAPIO 2,295.88

TARETAN 2,013.79

TINGAMBATO (ERONGARÍCUARO) 3,589.77

TINGÜINDÍN (TOCUMBO) 5,784.79

TURICATO 5,046.48

URUAPAN 26,369.08

ZIRACUARETIRO 2,817.54

ORIENTE (HIDALGO, TUXPAN,IRIMBO) 476.15

TOTAL 185,346.31



2012-2013 2st STAGE

DISTRIBUTION OF ACRES AND ORCHARDS OF ALTITUDE ABOVE SEA LEVEL

AASL ORCHARDS ACRES

1 1600 1,420 13,505.73

1601 1700 1,229 13,458.88

1701 1800 1,655 17,384.18

1801 1900 2,257 24,480.28

1901 2000 2,402 25,968.38

2001 2100 2,553 30,738.52

2101 2200 1,986 26,082.70

2201 2300 1,561 21,193.50

2301 5000 774 12,534.13

TOTAL 15,837 185,346.31

35,000

30,000

25,000 24,480

25,968

30,739

26,083

21,193 ORCHARDS

20,000 17,384

15,000 13,506 13,459 12,534 ACRES

10,000

5,000

0

1,420 1,229

1- 1600 1601-1700

1,655

1701-1800

2,257

1801-1900

2,402

1901-2000

2,553

2001-2100

1,986

2101-2200

1,561

2201-2300

774

2301-5000



2012-2013 2st STAGE

DISTRIBUTION OF AREAS AND ORCHARDS BY STRATA

STRATUM (1) SURFACE BY STRATUM

PERCENTAGE ORCHARD NUMBER

STRATUM 1 34,953.08 18.9% 9,069

STRATUM 2 71,159.58 38.4% 5,172

STRATUM 3 56,898.04 30.7% 1,396

STRATUM 4 22,335.61 12.1% 200

185,346.31 100% 15,837

0.00

10,000.00

20,000.00

30,000.00

40,000.00

50,000.00

60,000.00

70,000.00

80,000.00

34,953.08

71,159.58

56,898.04

22,335.61

9,069 5,172

1,396 200

SURFACE BY STRATUM

ORCHARD NUMBER

STRATUM 1 STRATUM 2 STRATUM 3 STRATUM 4

(1)

Stratum 1: orchards with less than or equal to 7.41 acres.

Stratum 2: surface orchards with more than 7.41 acres to 24.71 acres.

Stratum 3: surface orchards with more than 24.71 acres to 74.13 acres.

Stratum 4: orchards with more than 74.13 acres.



2012-2013 2st STAGE

DISTRIBUTION OF STRATA BY ALTITUDE ABOVE SEA LEVEL

AASL SURFACE

STRATUM 1 SURFACE

STRATUM 2 SURFACE

STRATUM 3 SURFACE

STRATUM 4 SURFACE

1- 1600 3,474.11 5,723.30 3,401.80 906.51 13,505.72

1601- 1700 2,885.92 5,799.53 3,918.52 854.91 13,458.88

1701- 1800 3,534.86 7,571.91 4,041.69 2,235.72 17,384.18

1801- 1900 5,194.04 9,666.98 6,824.48 2,794.80 24,480.29

1901- 2000 5,223.05 10,712.53 7,248.61 2,784.21 25,968.40

2001- 2100 5,592.87 12,187.11 10,278.35 2,680.21 30,738.53

2101- 2200 4,136.30 8,942.08 9,506.81 3,497.50 26,082.70

2201- 2300 3,573.24 6,448.81 6,549.92 4,621.53 21,193.50

2301- 5000 1,338.71 4,107.34 5,127.87 1,960.23 12,534.14

TOTALES 34,953.09 71,159.59 56,898.04 22,335.61 185,346.3

0.00

2,000.00

4,000.00

6,000.00

8,000.00

10,000.00

12,000.00

14,000.00

SURFACE STRATUM 1

SURFACE STRATUM 2

SURFACE STRATUM 3

SURFACE STRATUM 4

1- 1601- 1701- 1801- 1901- 2001- 2101- 2201- 2301-1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 5000


PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA BALANCE OF FRUIT 2012-

2013 2st STAGE

ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION (BALANCE)

ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION FRUIT BALANCE

SEASON 2012-2013 2st STAGE

CERTIFIED AREA TO USA

639,674,648.31 Pounds

680,705,954.69 Pounds

598,643,341.93 Pounds

LOWER LIMIT UPPER LIMIT


PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA BALANCE OF FRUIT 2012-2013 2st STAGE

PRODUCTION TRENDS BY MUNICIPALITY

TREND MEDIA TREND MEDIA MUNICIPALITY SURFACE PRODUCTION PRODUCTION

POUNDS POUNDS/ACRE

ACUITZIO 2,460.38 11,577,222.95 4,705.46 APATZINGÁN 1,393.48 997,136.90 715.57

ARIO DE ROSALES 23,388.43 70,402,683.30 3,010.15 COTIJA 2,258.79 8,993,794.67 3,981.69

LOS REYES 6,019.68 11,552,817.80 1,919.17 V. MADERO 790.74 1,694,524.97 2,142.96

NVO.PARANGARICUTIRO 11,790.58 50,225,844.81 4,259.83 PARÁCUARO 374.19 20,304.59 54.26

PERIBÁN 12,830.50 34,312,378.43 2,674.28 SALVADOR ESCALANTE 23,182.51 86,552,850.40 3,733.54

TACÁMBARO 11,317.62 57,215,642.60 5,055.45 TANCÍTARO 41,145.91 148,557,064.84 3,610.49

TANGAMANDAPIO 2,295.88 7,913,360.62 3,446.77 TARETAN 2,013.79 923,230.39 458.45

TINGAMBATO 3,589.77 7,845,745.00 2,185.58 TINGÜINDÍN 5,784.79 41,700,989.79 7,208.73 TURICATO 5,046.48 7,895,200.48 1,564.50 URUAPAN 26,369.08 88,141,416.72 3,342.60

ZIRACUARETIRO 2,817.54 2,080,794.06 738.51 ORIENTE 476.15 1,071,645.01 2,250.65

TOTALES 185,346.31 639,674,648.31 3,451.24



GRAPHIC OF TREND IN THE PRODUCTION BY MUNICIPALITY

-

20,000,000.00

40,000,000.00

60,000,000.00

80,000,000.00

100,000,000.00

120,000,000.00

140,000,000.00

160,000,000.00



2013 2st STAGE

TRENDS OF PRODUCTION BY STRATUM

STRATUM SURFACE BY TRENDS OF POUNDS PER STRATUM ACRES PRODUCTION ACRE

(POUNDS)

STRATUM 1 34,953.08 107,517,222.21 3,076

STRATUM 2 71,159.58 221,232,122.11 3,109

STRATUM 3 56,898.04 150,647,673.54 2,648

STRATUM 4 22,335.61 160,277,630.43 7,176

185,346.31 639,674,648.31

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

3,076 3,109 2,648

7,176

STRATUM 1 STRATUM 2 STRATUM 3 STRATUM 4



2013 2st STAGE

TRENDS IN PERFORMANCE PER ALTITUDE ABOVE SEA LEVEL

AASL YIELD IN POUNDS

PER ACRE

0 1600 790.27

1601 1700 2,357.58

1701 1800 2,244.57

1801 1900 4,964.02

1901 2000 5,399.29

2001 2100 3,345.17

2101 2200 4,163.52

2201 2300 2,913.13

2301 5000 1,863.62

-

1,000.00

2,000.00

3,000.00

4,000.00

5,000.00

6,000.00

790.27

2,357.582,244.57

4,964.02 5,399.29

3,345.17

4,163.52

2,913.13

1,863.62

1- 1601- 1701- 1801- 1901- 2001- 2101- 2201- 2301-1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 5000



2013 2st STAGE

DENSITY OF TREES PER ACRE AND TREES IN PRODUCTION

MUNICIPALITY SURFACE AVERAGE TREES PER

ACRE

TREE AVERAGE PRODUCTION

PER ACRE

ACUITZIO 2,460.38 70.59 70.59

APATZINGÁN 1,393.48 63.43 61.36

ARIO DE ROSALES 23,388.43 56.00 54.50

COTIJA 2,258.79 53.57 52.22

LOS REYES 6,019.68 75.41 61.33

VILLA MADERO 790.74 76.96 62.33

NVO. PARANGARICUTIRO 11,790.58 68.05 56.75

PARÁCUARO 374.19 67.89 56.78

PERIBÁN 12,830.50 62.72 52.90

SALVADOR ESCALANTE 23,182.51 57.34 49.20

TACÁMBARO 11,317.62 54.88 47.61

TANCÍTARO 41,145.91 53.39 46.82

TANGAMANDAPIO 2,295.88 53.46 46.98

TARETAN 2,013.79 53.36 46.97

TINGAMBATO 3,589.77 53.28 46.99

TINGÜINDÍN (TOCUMBO) 5,784.79 53.46 47.31

TURICATO 5,046.48 53.60 47.65

URUAPAN 26,369.08 52.80 47.38

ZIRACUARETIRO 2,817.54 53.06 47.63

ORIENTE 476.15 53.07 47.69

TOTALES 185,346.31 56.95 50.37



DENSITY OF TREES PER ACRE AND TREES IN PRODUCTION

80.00

70.00

60.00

50.00

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

-

AVERAGE TREES PER ACRE

TREE AVERAGE PRODUCTION PER ACRE




PROFILES OF THE ORCHARDS

CROP TYPE PERCENTAGE

ORGANIC 13%

CONVENTIONAL 87%

TOTAL 100.00%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

ORGANIC CONVENTIONAL

13%

87%

HUMIDITY SOURCE PERCENTAGE

IRRIGATION 45%

TEMPORAL 55%

Total 100%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

IRRIGATION TEMPORAL

45% 55%




TYPE OF IRRIGATION PERCENTAGE

SPRINKLING 40%

DRIP 20%

MICRO SPRINKLING 30%

ROLL IRRIGATION 5%

HOSEPIPE 5%

TOTAL 100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50% 40%

20%

30%

5% 5%

SPRINKLING DRIP MICRO ROLL HOSEPIPE SPRINKLING IRRIGATION

WATER SOURCE PERCENTAGE

PERFORATION 12%

CANAL 8%

CARCAMO 3%

WATER POT 67%

RIVER 2%

EYE OF WATER 8%

TOTAL 100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

12% 8%

3%

67%

2% 8%

PERFORATION CANAL CARCAMO WATER POT RIVER EYE OF WATER




PRUNING EVIDENCE PERCENTAGE

REJUVENATED 15%

CLARIFY 38%

NO PRUNING 47%

TOTAL 100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

15%

38%

47%

REJUVENATED CLARIFY NO PRUNING

FIELD TOPOGRAPHY PERCENTAGE

STRONG SLOPE 14%

MODERATE SLOPE 60%

FLAT GROUND 17%

IRREGULAR TERRAIN 9%

TOTAL 100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

14%

60%

17% 9%

STRONG MODERATE FLAT IRREGULAR SLOPE SLOPE GROUND TERRAIN




PLANTATION SISTEM PERCENTAGE

REAL SQUARE 61%

TRIANGLE 39%

TOTAL 100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

61%

39%

REAL SQUARE TRIANGLE

DISASTERS PERCENTAGE

FROST 3%

HAIL 13%

STRONG WINDS 9%

WITHOUT DISASTERS 75%

TOTAL 100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

3%

13% 9%

75%

FROST HAIL STRONG WITHOUT WINDS DISASTERS




PRODUCTION TREES

PERCENTAGE OF (RANGE)

ORCHARDS Less than 50% 2%

51 a 70% 7%

71 a 80% 4%

81 a 85% 4%

86 a 90% 5%

91 a 95% 6%

96 a 100% 72%

TOTAL 100.00%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2% 7% 4% 4% 5% 6%

72%

Less 51 a 71 a 81 a 86 a 91 a 96 a than 70% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 50%



PICTURES OF TRAINING TO EQUIPMENT TO THE SAMPLING



PICTURES OF FIELD SAMPLING



2013 2st STAGE

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA

OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA


COORDINATOR AND STATISTICAL ANALYST BACHELOR OF STATISTIC JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR

COMPANY THAT CONDUCTED THE FIELD STUDY SALVADOR VALENCIA (JEYSA)

GRAPHIC DESIGN AND PROGRAMMING ING. SILVIA T. PASOS VÁZQUEZ


jesÚs jasso aguilar bachelor of statistic · 2020. 10. 17. · 3,589.77 tingÜindÍn (tocumbo)...

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