jero ahola, lut, smart energy disruption in finland - how to benefit? 17022016
TRANSCRIPT
Smart energy disruption in Finland – How to benefit?
Jero Ahola, LUT17.2.2016
Transition period from fossil fuels
based energy system to net
CO2-free system ~35 a
World energy transitions 1850-2050
Source: Original picture from GEA Summary 2011, available at http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/ENE/GEA/index.html.accessed 6.8.2012
From wood to coal~ 80 years
From coal to oil~ 30 years
Increasing quality of the primary fuel
2050
The second electrification
2011
The de-carbonization of the electricity and heat generation mandatory but not sufficient at all
Biomass is not a sustainable energy source in large part of the World.
The w
hole en
egy s
ystem
must
be
de-carb
onized or r
e-carb
onized
77% (CO2)
Transportation13.5%
Electricity &heat 24.6%
Industry +others 26%
CO2 emissions distribution
Land use change 18%
Agriculture & Waste 17%
Available energy sources on earth
Source: Richard Perez & Marc Perez, “A Fundamental Look at Energy Reserves for the Planet”
Candidates to disruptive energy technologies to form the basis for the future energy system
1) RenewablePowergenerationSolar, wind
2) Smart-grid &Electrical Energy Storages
3) Bridging technologiesP2H, P2X, heat pumps, fuel cells
4) CO2 extraction andefficient energy end useCO2 capture, desalination, e-mobility, LED:s, ICT in general providing flexibility and enabling energy efficiency
• Technology: hardware & software, price decreases and performance improves, the improvement is driven by the development of technology
A large portion of intermittent power generation requires all kind of flexibility into the energy system
Source: C. Breyer et al., North-East Asian Super Grid: Renewable Energy Mix and Economics, WCPEC-6, Kyoto, Nov. 2014.
Power electronics – embedded part of disruptive energy technologies
Source: Fraunhofer-institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE), Current and Future Costs of Photovoltaics – Long-term Scenarios for Market Development, System Prices and LCOE of Utility-scale PV systems, study on the behalf of Agora Energiewende, 2015
• In future majority of electric power will go through the power electronics at least twice before consumed in the end applications
• Power electronics hosts algorithms and methods enabling energy efficiency, demand response, and smart grid
• ~5-10% share in the investment cost of disruptive energy technologies (part of those)
Learning rate: 18.9%Cost reductions driven by increasing power density
Energy efficiency solutions – a means to reduce the total cost energy transformation
• Not necessarily new technology, instead:• Systems approach to energy conversion chains• New design practices, correct dimensioning, real-time measurements, intelligent control, etc• In general more electrification and variable speed drives
Source: Redrawing energy climate map, IEA (International Energy Agency), 2013.
Investmentcosts
Savings in energy costs
Economic limit
Economicalenergy efficiencysavings Target state
with systems approcach
Starting pointreference system
Finnish energy system has to be also “Paris” compatible (net zero CO2 emissions) by 2050
Source: Michael Child, Christian Breyer, Vision and Initial Feasibility analysis of Recarbonized Finnish Energy System.
~165 TWh of CO2-net-emitting energy
consumption
Paris compatible scenarios2012
Definitely this means the next electrification: The doubling of electricity generation from year 2012 by 2050
Source: Michael Child, Christian Breyer, Vision and Initial Feasibility analysis of Recarbonized Finnish Energy System.
90 TWh/a
190 TWh/a
The role of P2X: Almost half of electricity will be used used to produce fuels for transportation & seasonal storage
Source: Michael Child, Christian Breyer, Vision and Initial Feasibility analysis of Recarbonized Finnish Energy System.
Power-to-X: Manufacturing of hydro-carbons with electric power from air
SYNTHESIS REACTOR SYSTEM
Electrolysis
H2
H2 storage
CO2 separation CO2 storage
FT synthesis
Aromatisation
Renewable electricity
Water
Air CO2
Electricity
CH4 synthesis
MeOH synthesisBiomass, gasificationFuels, chemicals
Benzene, plastics, SNG
Fuels SNG
AromatesBenzene, toluene, xylene
Bio-power hybrids
H2
Product separation
In collaboration with VTT
FinlandLappeenranta region cluster:Kaukas• 20 000 tO2/a by ASU• fossil CO2: 0.1 Mt• biogenic CO2: 1.5 Mt• BioVernoJoutseno, Imatra• Combined bio: 3.8 Mt
MtCO2 Fossil Biogenic Total
Finland 3.56 17.17 20.73
Sweden 1.22 22.39 23.61
Norway 0.03 0.32 0.35
SwedenSödra Cell Värö• Fossil 0.04• Biogenic ~1 Mt• Capacity expansion
ongoing• Rail
Värö
Kaukas
1 MWh CH4 -> 198 kgCO2
CO2 emissions of Finnish pulp and paper industry
Source: Hannu Karjunen & Tero Tynjälä, LUT
Electrical fuels - Methane production potential from renewable H2 and bio-CO2 of Finnish pulp and paper industry
Source: The carbon footprint of lime kilns. Manning, R., Tran, H., et al. TAPPI 2010
UPM• Pulp: 3.1 Mt/apulp = 1.7 Mtbio-C* → 2.2 MtCH4 = 30 TWh• Bark: 8.8 TWh = 1 Mtbio-C → 1.26 MtCH4 = 17 TWh• BioVerno = 1.2 TWh/a
* emission from production
Stora Enso• 1.7 times = 84 TWh Metsä group• 0.8 times = 40 TWh
170 TWh CH4
4.7 MtCO2on mass basis
CO2 is the main product of a
pulp mill
170 TWh = Oil & gas consupt. in Finland, Estonia and Latvia
The carbon balance (t/d) of a 1000t/d kraft pulp mill
Conclusion
• We are in the middle of energy transition: “The electrification of the whole energy system”
• There are several visible signs of this transition; 1) wind and solar power are becoming the least cost electricity generation techniques, 2) the power generation is becoming more distributed (by location & ownership), 3) the cost of storing electric energy decreasing, 4) the proportion of electric vehicles is increasing, etc
• Hydrocarbons in the forms of fuels, chemical feeds, human foods and animal feeds are still needed. These have to be electrified also by power-to-x technologies
• Finland is both a target of disruption and can benefit from it, providing technology, services, and software:• Power electronics, energy efficiency solutions, P-to-X technologies• Forest industry is a large source of Bio-CO2 ,could be used as a raw material
for biofuels, bio-chemicals, bio-materials