jenny n. braat - oecd braat sea europe.pdf · jenny n. braat managing director of danish maritime...
TRANSCRIPT
27-11-2013
1
Jenny N. Braat Managing Director of Danish Maritime
Chairman of
SEA Europe Working Group on Market & Forecast
The surface of the globe consists of 70% water
The world coastline is 356.000 km long
7 bn people live on Earth
UN expects a global population
of 9.7 bn in 2050
40% of the world’s population
lives within 100 kilometers of the coast.
90% of all trade is transported by sea
The future will need maritime knowhow
on how to use the SEA
27-11-2013
2
Global Commercial Shipbuilding Situation
Source: IHS Maritime
Agenda • Introduction
• The Market Today
• Forecasting to 2030
• Conclusions
27-11-2013
3
Source: IHS Maritime
Global Orderbook by Main Building Areas in CGT Terms Evolution of the Global Orderbook by Ship Types
Source: IHS Maritime
27-11-2013
4
Source: Clarkson
Global Orderbook per Vessel Type and Building Area
Source: Clarkson
Orderbook Market Shares in Terms of Value (1 October 2013)
27-11-2013
5
Source: Clarkson
New Orders Market Shares in Terms of Value (Vessels Ordered in 3Q 2013)
Source: Clarkson
Market Shares in Completions in Terms of Value (Vessels Delivered by 3Q 2013)
27-11-2013
6
Activity of the society – economic,
industrial or other
Trade volumes/routes
Fleet requirement
Fleet expansion requirement
Newbuilding requirement
Transport efficiency
Replacement requirement
Basic Forecasting Methodology
27-11-2013
7
Growth Growth
27-11-2013
8
Growth
Source: SEA Europe
27-11-2013
9
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
The World Fleet 1925-2012 no
Scrapping
Source: IHS Maritime
27-11-2013
10
Comparing NB Requirement Forecasts
Sources: 2013 association forecasts, ISFEM 2013 memorandum, JECKU EPM 2013 presentations
(to
tal fo
recaste
d n
ew
bu
ild r
eq
uirem
en
t, a
ll sh
ip t
ypes,
mG
T)
Tankers (mGT)
Sources: ISFEM 2013 memorandum, JECKU EPM 2013 presentations
Tankers (mGT)
27-11-2013
11
Container ships (mGT)
Sources: ISFEM 2013 memorandum, JECKU EPM 2013 presentations
Container Ships (mGT)
Bulk carriers (mGT)
Sources: ISFEM 2013 memorandum, JECKU EPM 2013 presentations
Bulk Carriers (mGT)
27-11-2013
12
LNG Carriers (mGT)
Sources: ISFEM 2013 memorandum, JECKU EPM 2013 presentations
LNG Carriers (mGT)
LPG Carriers (mGT)
Sources: ISFEM 2013 memorandum, JECKU EPM 2013 presentations.
LPG Carriers (mGT)
27-11-2013
13
Offshore Vessels
Number of vessels by contract year
Assumptions:
Assuming stable oil price: 100-115 $/bbl
Higher E&P activity and demand growth
Deeper waters and new requirements
Best outlook for large efficient vessels
Some markets will take a short term hit:
Oversupply a significant risk for PSVs
Slowdown in drillship orders after all time high
Other markets are picking up:
Increased demand for semi submersibles
The market for AHTS will return. 2014?
The effect of DP rigs on AHTS market
Continued strong subsea market
Higher exploration activity and seismic demand
Very difficult to predict the next peak! Data Source: ISFEM 2013
27-11-2013
14
Capacity Forecast
Source: Forecast Sea Europe, 2013. Note: long term capacity estimate ≠ currently marketed capacity.
**Thank You for Your Attention**