jeff harris director, emerging technologies
DESCRIPTION
Market Transformation in Energy Efficiency: A Northwest Perspective. Jeff Harris Director, Emerging Technologies. Presentation to the 2010 mid-year NASUCA Conference June 14, 2010 San Francisco, CA. About NEEA. Non-profit corporation; est. 1996 in Portland, OR - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Jeff HarrisDirector, Emerging
Technologies
Market Transformation in Energy Efficiency: A
Northwest Perspective
Presentation to the 2010 mid-year NASUCA Conference
June 14, 2010
San Francisco, CA
2
About NEEA
Non-profit corporation; est. 1996 in Portland, OR Funded by electric utilities in MT, ID, OR & WA Governed by representative Board; public and
private utilities, state governments, public interest groups; oversight by State utility Commissions
Five-year funding commitment from 14 direct funders
Total funding 2010 ~ $30 million 50 employees
3
Vision and Mission
Vision: Energy efficiency is acornerstone of a vibrant sustainable Northwest.
Mission: Mobilize the Northwest to become increasingly energy efficient
for a sustainable future.
4
NW Power Future:
Bottom line: All new load growth met with efficiency and renewables
5
Annual Northwest Energy Efficiency Investment
Bonneville Power
Administration
PublicUtilities
InvestorOwnedUtilities
Northwest Powerand Conservation
Council
StateRegulatory
Commissions Northwest EnergyEfficiencyAlliance
Energy TrustEnergy Trustofof
OregonOregon
RegionalTechnical
Forum
End Use ConsumersEnd Use Consumers
Markets, Markets, Codes & Codes & StandardsStandards
= = Policy Policy RecommendationsRecommendations
= Technical= TechnicalRecommendationsRecommendations
= Program= ProgramFundingFunding
= Conservation= ConservationProgramsPrograms
= Market TransformationPrograms/Projects
The “Plan”The “Plan”
= = Policy Policy
= Rate= Rate RevenuesRevenues
6
NEEA Definition of Market Transformation
“Market Transformation is the strategic process of intervening in a market to create lasting change in market behavior by removing identified barriers or exploiting opportunities to accelerate the adoption of all cost-effective energy efficiency as a matter of standard practice.”
7
MT is a Process....
Market Assessment MT Hypothesis
(Logic Model)MT Intervention
StrategyTactics
Implementation
Exit? Evaluate
8
Market Transformation: Strategy Development
The Logic Model:
For each market barrier or opportunity:
Barrier BIntervention A Outcome C ENERGY SAVINGS
9
Common Market Barriers
Misalignment with consumer needs
Lack of Awareness
Lack of information
Price
Poor Availability
Consumer Experience
Poor channel access to market
10
Market Transformation Strategies
Create strategic partnerships
Build market knowledge and experience
Develop relationships that help influence energy codes
and standards
Provide credible information
Align EE with Consumer Needs
11
Market Transformation in CFLs
From this: To this:
12
Diffusion of innovation Theory
13
Diffusion Curve%
Mar
ket S
hare
Time
14
Diffusion Curve
EmergingTech
Early Adopters
Baseline (WhatOccurs Naturally)
NEEA NEEA NEEAUtility Local ProgramsPrimary Role
% M
arke
t Sha
re
Time
15
Diffusion Curve
EmergingTech
Early Adopters
Baseline (WhatOccurs Naturally)
NEEA NEEA NEEAUtility Local ProgramsPrimary Role
Transformation
Market
Pulp & Paper DHP Pilot
Consumer Electronics
Commercial Real Estate
Homes
Building Ops
Food Processing
Healthcare
Building Design and Construction
Energy Savings /
Net Market Effect
% M
arke
t Sha
re
Time
16
Diffusion Curve
EmergingTech
Early Adopters
Baseline (WhatOccurs Naturally)
NEEA NEEA NEEAUtility Local Programs
Cost MWh
Primary Role
Transformation
Market
Energy Savings /
Net Market Effect
% M
arke
t Sha
re
TimePulp & Paper
DHP Pilot
Consumer Electronics
Commercial Real Estate
Homes
Building Ops
Food Processing
Healthcare
Building Design and Construction
17
Diffusion Curve
EmergingTech
Early Adopters
Codes and Standards
Baseline (WhatOccurs Naturally)
NEEA NEEA NEEAUtility Local Programs
Cost MWh
Primary Role
Transformation
Market
Energy Savings /
Net Market Effect
% M
arke
t Sha
re
TimePulp & Paper
DHP Pilot
Consumer Electronics
Commercial Real Estate
Homes
Building Ops
Food Processing
Healthcare
Building Design and Construction
18
Market Transformation Success: CFLs
Source: NEEA
19
Market Transformation Success: Clothes Washers
Source: NEEA
20
Market Transformation Success: Windows
Source: NEEA
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Market Transformation Results: Overall Significant Savings
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
aMW
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Year
Net
Local
Baseline
556 aMW saved through 2008 (of which 264 are net market effects)
Enough to power 182,574 homes each year, or one coal-fired power plant
Prior investments continue to achieve cost effective savings (at < 1 cent/kWh)
556 aMW
22
Market Transformation Support Structures%
Mar
ket P
enet
ratio
n
Time
Goals Supporting
Market Penetration
Local energy efficiency program
implementation
Codes & Standards(G1)
Market Adoption (G1)
Emerging Technologies
(G4)
Help EE Orgs Achieve Their Goals (G2)
Build Knowledge Through Education and Training (G3)
Support Region’s Efforts to Promote EE (G5)
Regional EE Planning/Implementation (G6)
23
Why you should care: Why is market transformation important for the future?
24
Net-zero buildings will require highly integrated energy efficiency systems and coordination between market actors to deliver buildings that actually perform at a level that is unprecedented; to do otherwise will be very expensive.....
Why you should care (continued).
25
Thank You
26
0
200
400
600
5 Yr Regional Savings 10 Yr Regional Savings
2010-2014 aMW Savings Targets
0
100
200
5 Yr Regional Savings 10 Yr Regional Savings
Estimated 5 and 10 YearTotal Regional Savings
Estimated 5 and 10 YearNet Market Effects
Total Resources Costs 2.5 - 3.5 cents / kWH 2.5 - 3.5 cents / kWH
NEEA onlyLevelized Costs 2 - 2.5 cents / kWH 2 - 2.5 cents / kWH
100 aMW is enough to power 69,000
homes each year
550
200
100
200
27
NEEA’s Unique Value
Fill pipeline of emerging technologies Deliver regional leverage with “upstream”
market actors Realize economies of scale “Lock in” savings through codes and standards Expand regional market capability Avoid resource duplication Mitigate risk
28
How NEEA Works
PARTNER SERVICES
COMMERCIAL
INDUSTRIAL
RESIDENTIAL
EMERGING TECH
29
Estimated Budget Allocation: 2010-2014
30
Support and maintain a regional upstream delivery
platforms for energy-efficient products and services
Residential
Key Initiatives: New Construction – reduce market barriers, influence voluntary
programs/labels and set the stage for code upgrades Consumer Electronics – initial focus on flat-screen TVs Ductless Heat Pumps – pilot demonstrating energy savings potential Lighting – Continued focus on CFL purchase research TopTen USA – highlighting the most energy-efficient products
31
Simultaneously build demand for and supply of energy
efficient products and services in select markets.
Commercial
Key Initiatives: Hospitals/Healthcare & Real Estate – Helping organizations use
Strategic Energy Management to become more energy efficient Building Market Skills/Capacity – provide resources, training and tools
to design and building operations communities 80 PLUS – encourage and track growth of energy-efficient power
supplies for computers
32
Industrial
Work to set industry-wide goals, encourage individual
organizations to adopt Strategic Energy Management and
coordinate regionally.
Key Initiatives: Collaborative Energy Strategies -- working on an industry-wide approach with the
food processing industry to setting goals and increasing efficiency Strategic Energy Management – Support companies in integrating energy
management into their company cultures Regional Coordination – partnerships with stakeholders that help develop market
ready offerings
33
Codes and Standards
Locking in regional savings
through codes and standards Codes &
Standards
Voluntary energy
efficiency programs
Time
Mar
ket P
enet
ratio
n
34
Emerging Technologies
Upcoming Initiatives: Residential Heat Pump Water Heaters Regional Advisory Committee Net Market Effect: 0 aMW by 2014; 5aMW by 2019 Portfolio Target: 300 aMW Total Regional by 2030
Provide a mechanism for the region to invest in emerging technologies in a way that minimizes risks to any one
funder and maximizes potential benefits.
35
Upcoming Initiatives: Develop a website/ information services portal Create promote online forum/collaboration tools Hire and deploy a circuit rider Coordinate regional conference/ events Coordinate training/ workshops
Partner Services
Support the region’s efforts to promote energy efficiency through
market research, collaboration and information sharing.
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1995
Deregulation
2005-2009
Codes and standards accelerate
Climate change awareness
Northwest
$60M
Northwest
$250-300M
NEEA
$20M
2010-2014
Economic Challenge
Climate Change
Increased EE Investment and Awareness
Northwest
Ramp to $1-$2B
NEEA
$25M
NEEA
~$40M
Annual Northwest Energy Efficiency Investment
37
Market Transformation Accomplishments
1990 Today
2007:
CFL sales top 18
million
2001: Market share for
ENERGY STAR
windows hits 75%.
2000: VFD
cold storage
fans reduce
energy use by
61-86%.
1997: Efficient washers.
50% market share today -
highest in the nation.
2002: 80 PLUS.
computer power supplies
could save NW 8.5
million kWh annually.
1998: BacGen
reduces
wastewater
treatment energy
use by up to 50%.
1996: NEEA
Launched
2004:
Northwest
ENERGY
STAR new
homes spec –
15% more
efficient than
code.
2008:
NW Food
processing
industry commits
to 50% reduction
goal
2009:
Ductless heat
pump pilot
begins
2005: BetterBricks
healthcare focus –
today 30% of region’s
beds have adopted a
SEMP.
38
About NEEA
Funding ~$192M from 2010-2014 (doubling) Bonneville Power Administration (on behalf
of ~130 publics) Public (Direct Publics): 6 IOUs: 5 Energy Trust of Oregon Board Oversight and Supporters State governments Energy industry representatives Public interest groupsTeam: Deep bench of expertise 42 full-time staff National and local partners Extensive contractor baseResults 1997-2008 – 264 aMW netted Enough to power cities of Spokane and
Tacoma each yearMission Mobilize the Northwest to become
increasingly energy efficient for a sustainable future