DisasterResiliencecanbeanaffordablebyproductofaSmartEnergyFuture.DanBihn,Engineer-StorytellerOctober2016

Incaseyoumissedallthetweets……SmartEnergyhasbeenhappeninginJapanforawhile.

DisasterResilienceistechnicallyeasytobuild…

HavingDisasterResiliencepayitswayonadailybasisisthechallenge

Japanmayhavefigureditout

=GridConnectedEVs

SmartHomes

MeaningfulPrices

DisasterResilience

NewBusinesses

IfyoudecidetobuildahouseinJapantoday…

Youwillbeasked,Howsmartwouldyoulikeittobe?

Howmuchsolarwouldyoulike?

Wouldyoulikeafuelcelltogenerateelectricityandheatyourbathwater?

Wouldyoulikealithium-ionbattery thatcanpoweryourhomefor3daysifdisasterstrikesandhelpreduceyourelectricitycostonadailybasis…

… bychargingitatnightfor6¢/kWh.

…andsometimessellingitbacktotheutilityintheafternoonfor25¢/kWh?

Andwouldyoulikethatbatterytobeyourcar?

HowdidJapangettothepointwheredisasterresiliencecanactuallypayforitselfonday-to-daybasis?

NaturalDisastersarePartofJapaneseHistoryandCulture

September1st,1923TheGreatKantoEarthquakeAbout150,000peopledied– mostlyintheensuingfirestorm.

September1st becameDisasterPreventionDay.Companiesandcommunitiesoftenhavehands-onfiredrills.MyfriendSugawara-sandemonstratesthatitisseriousbusiness,butfuntoo.It’sapartoflife.

JustBeforetheTripleDisasterMarch11,2011(“3-11”)

Earthquake,Tsunami,Fukushima

ThisishowJapanmadeitselectricity.

Type AnnualEnergy PeakCapacity

Nuclear 29.2% 20.2%NaturalGas 29.4% 25.5%Coal 24.7% 15.7%Oil 7.6% 19.1%Hydro 7.3% 8.6%PumpedHydro -0.7% 10.6%

TheaggregateconsumptionofelectricityforTokyoonasummerday

Onatypicalsummerday,Tokyo’selectricityusepatternlookslikethis.Notethenotchatnoon.That’swhenmostofficesinJapanplaymusicorringabellsignalingitstimeforlunch.Energy-consciousemployeesturnofflightsandcomputermonitors.Andtheregion’selectricityusagedrops5%.Really.

Thishand-drawngraphshowshowJapangeneratedandusedelectricitybeforethedisaster.Roughly30%Nuclear,30%NaturalGas,25%Coal,7%Oil,8%Hydro.

WhenthesuncameuponMarch11th,2011,Japanwasplanningonincreasingitsdependenceonnuclearpowerfrom30%to50%by2030.

At2:46PMonFriday,March11,2011,amagnitude9.0earthquakestruck70milesoffthecoastofnorthernJapancausingseveraldeathsandtriggeringtheimmediatecollapseofthepowergridinnorthernJapan.

30to90minuteslater,tsunamiwavescameashorekilling20,000peopleandtriggeringthemeltdownof3ofJapan’s54nuclearreactors.

ImmediateGridcollapse

BlackoutArea4PMMarch11,2011

BeforethegroundstartedshakinginTokyo,230milesfromtheepicenter,mostofnorthernHonshu(Tohoku)hadlostpower.

3dayslater,thesituationhadimproved,butthelargestcityintheregion,Sendai,wasstillinthedark.

8dayslater,onlythedevastatedcoastalareaswerewithoutpower.

ButontheeveningofMarch11th noteveryonewasinthedark…

AnexperimentalmicrogridatthisteachinghospitalinSendaikeptsomeofthelightson.

Themicrogridissurroundedbysolarpanelsinthemiddleofcampus.

Dr.HirosefromNTTFacilitiesshowsoffthepartofthesystemthatworkedthebest– thePVpanelsandbatteries.

DownthestreetatTohokuUniversity,Dr.Tohjioverlookshissmallmicrogrid that…

…keptthelightsoninhisbeautifulnewwoodenlaboratory.

Agradstudentproudlyshowsthephotosfromthefirstnightaftertheearthquake.

Beforethedisaster,54nuclearreactorsprovided30%ofJapaneseelectricity…

… todayonly3arerunning(October1,2016).

Providingelectricityduringthedailypeakbecameabigchallenge.

PeakSupplyGap

Onesuccessfulstrategyhasbeentoroll-outmeaningfultime-of-useratesthatencourageusingelectricitywhenit’sabundantandavoidusingitwhenit’sscarce.

$$$$$ $

Ideally,theresultswouldlooksomethinglikethis…

… buttherewasaHUGEobstacleintheway.

Once-a-monththisgentlemanwalksthisneighborhood…

…readingmeterslikethis(patentedin1888).

Hesometimesusesbinoculars.

Theelectricutilitycompanyknewexactlyhowmuchelectricityyouusedeachmonth.

Thisusedtobeimpressive.

Itwasthebestanyonecoulddo… for100years.

Overthepast5years,Japanhasdoneanimpressivejobrollingoutsmartmetersthatwirelesslyreportconsumptionevery15to30minutes.

Nowthepriceofelectricitycanchangethroughouttheday…

… higherinthemiddleofthedaywhengridsupplyisstruggling,loweratnightwhenthereisanexcessofcapacity.

Time Rate(yen/kWh)

11PMà 7AM 11.827AMà 1PM 28.181PMà 4PM 53.164PMà 11PM 28.18

SummerRatesJulythroughSeptember

Nowakilowatt-hourcanvaryfromabout12¢tomorethan50¢overaday.

InthePacificNorthwest,wepayabout10¢.

(Todaytheyenistradingforabout102.8yen/dollar,so1yenisabout1cent.)

SmartEnergyTransformation

Pricesareagoodwaytogetpeople’sattention.

Butcreatingcoolproductscanbeamuchbetterwaytogo.

Q:What’sthereturn-on-investmentofyouriPhone?

A:What?

InOctober,2011– 7monthsafterthedisaster– NissanshowedofftheirLeaf-to-Homeconceptsystematthebiggestconsumertradeshowoftheyear.

PVontheroofofthismodelhomechargesthecarwhenthesunshines.Whenthesungoesdown,powerflowsfromthecartothehome.Nogridneeded.

Pointmade.

Dr.TohjiatTohokuUniversitywasthinkingthesamethingforhiswholelab.

DanwasdelightednottobeinOregon,sohecouldhelpoutatthepump.

SmartHomes

Thissmarthomehasahomeenergymanagementsystem(HEMS)thatmanagesheat,cooling,andlightingaswellastheessentialJapanese-stylebath.

Thesehigh-qualityLEDsshownhereareexpectedtooutlastthehome,sotheyarehardwiredintothisfixturemakingitsmallerandmorebeautiful.

WhentheLEDgoesout,youreplacethewholefixture.Butbythenitmightbetimetoreplacethewholehouse.

Beautyisstandardequipment.

Theactioncharacterisoptional.

April1st,2016

Thisisnotajoke.

April1,2016,Japanderegulateditsretailelectricindustry.

ManypunditsintheU.S.thoughtwholesalederegulationshouldbethefirststep(IthinktheJapanesegovernmentthoughtsotoo).Buttheutilitiesfoughtbacksoitdidn’tworkoutthatway.

Thegoodnewsisthatwithsmartmeters,thenewelectricityretailersarecreatingsomereallyinterestingproductsandservices.Alotoftime-of-userateplanshaveemerged.

Themostinterestingprogramsofferadiscountforallowingtheutilitytocontrolyourairconditionerwhenyou’renotathome.

IntegratingEVchargingisnextontheagenda.

SoftbankisJapan’s#1cellphoneserviceprovider.Theynowsellelectricity,too.

Todayyoucanchoosefromhundredsofelectricityproviders– upsignificantlyfromjust1lessthanayearago.Conveniencestores,cellphoneserviceproviders,gasolinecompanies,travelcompanies,smalltowns.

Sowhat?

Buylow,sellhigh.Chargeoff-peak,dischargeon-peak.

Dynamicpricingisunlockingthevalueofbatterystorage–stationaryandmobile.

Batteriesaresoldasawaytosavemoney.And,bytheway,theyareveryusefulincaseofdisaster.

So….

Grid(orHome)connectedelectricvehicles(V2GandV2H),plus….

SmartHomes,plus…

Meaningfulelectricitypricing,equals…

Newbusinessopportunities,and…

DisasterResilience.

=GridConnectedEVs

SmartHomes

MeaningfulPrices

DisasterResilience

NewBusinesses

DanBihn.com

DisasterResilienceisanaffordablebyproductofasmartenergyfuture.

“Fillitupwithsunshine,please.”