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January–June 2018 Trends Analysis Libya Cash & Markets Working Group (CMWG) September 2018

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January–June 2018 Trends Analysis

Libya Cash & Markets Working Group (CMWG)

September 2018

Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis Executive Summary

LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP iii

Executive Summary

Key Findings

Exchange Rates

1 IOM (2018). DTM Libya IDP & Returnee Report Round 20: Mobility Tracking, May-June 2018. Available from http://www.globaldtm.info/libya-idp-and-returnee-report-20-may-june-2018.

Executive Summary Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis

iv LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP

Food Items

Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis Executive Summary

LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP v

Non-Food Items

Contents Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis

vi LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP

Contents

Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................. iii

Key Findings ................................................................................................................................................. iii

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 1

Methodology ......................................................................................................................................... 2

Coverage....................................................................................................................................................... 2 Sampling ........................................................................................................................................................ 3 Data collection ............................................................................................................................................ 3 Analysis .......................................................................................................................................................... 6

Challenges .................................................................................................................................................... 7 Limitations ..................................................................................................................................................... 9

Exchange Rates ...................................................................................................................................10

Macroeconomic background ..............................................................................................................10 Exchange rates over time ...................................................................................................................... 11

Food Items ............................................................................................................................................ 14

Food Price Index over time .................................................................................................................. 14 Food item prices over time................................................................................................................... 18 Shortages ................................................................................................................................................... 23

Non-Food Items ................................................................................................................................. 25

NFI Price Index over time .................................................................................................................... 25 Non-food item prices over time ........................................................................................................ 29

Shortages ................................................................................................................................................... 30

Conclusion............................................................................................................................................32

Annex ..................................................................................................................................................... 33

Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis Contents

LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP vii

List of Figures, Tables and Maps

Figure 1: Exchange rates over time, 1 January 2016–1 July 2018 and 1 January 2018–1 July 2018 ............................................................................................................................................................................ 11 Figure 2: Median Food Price Index by region from January–June 2018 (normalized: January = 1.00) ........................................................................................................................................................................ 16 Figure 3: Food Price Index from January–June 2018 in selected locations (normalized: January = 1.00) ...................................................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 4: Median prices of selected food items from January–June 2018 (normalised: January = 1.00) .................................................................................................................................................... 20 Figure 5: Median prices of bread and wheat flour from January–August 2018 (normalised: January = 1.00) .................................................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 6: Median NFI Price Index from January–June 2018 in selected locations (normalized: January = 1.00) ........................................................................................................................... 27 Figure 7: Median NFI Price Index by region from January–June 2018 (normalized: January = 1.00) ...................................................................................................................................................................... 28 Figure 8: Median prices of selected NFIs from January–June 2018 (normalised: January = 1.00) .......................................................................................................................................................................... 30

Table 1: Items monitored as part of the JMMI ........................................................................................... 4 Table 2: Libya Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB) ............................................................................... 5 Table 3: Food Price Index per location ...................................................................................................... 15 Table 4: Food item prices ................................................................................................................................ 19 Table 5: NFI Price Index per location ........................................................................................................ 26 Table 6: NFI prices ............................................................................................................................................ 29 Table A1: Previous JMMI outputs .................................................................................................................. 33 Table A2: Coverage of the JMMI by month ............................................................................................ 34

Map 1: Coverage of the JMMI .......................................................................................................................... 2

Box 1: Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB) ................................................................................................ 4 Box 2: Parallel exchange rates drive commodity prices .................................................................... 13 Box 3: How to read a price index ................................................................................................................. 16 Box 4: The ‘bread and flour crisis’ of 2018 .............................................................................................. 20 Box 5: Shortages of food items in Derna ................................................................................................ 23 Box 6: Why are hygiene item prices so variable across Libya? .................................................... 28

List of Acronyms

CBI Cash-based intervention CBL Central Bank of Libya CMWG Libya Cash & Markets

Working Group DRC Danish Refugee Council DTM Displacement Tracking Matrix EUR Euro IDP Internally displaced person IMF International Monetary Fund IOM International Organisation for

Migration ISCG Libya Inter-Sector

Coordination Group JMMI Joint Market Monitoring

Initiative

KI Key informant LPG Liquefied petroleum gas LYD Libyan dinar MEB Minimum Expenditure Basket NFI Non-food item NGO Non-governmental

organisation PSF Price Stability Fund USD US dollar WASH Water, sanitation, and

hygiene WFP World Food Programme

Contents Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis

viii LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP

Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis Introduction

LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP 1

Introduction

2 IOM (2018), DTM Libya IDP and Returnee Report – Round 19, March-April 2018, and DTM Libya Migrant Report – Round 19, April 2018, available from http://www.globaldtm.info/libya/.

Methodology Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis

2 LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP

Methodology

Coverage

Map 1: Coverage of the JMMI

3 Table A2 in the annex presents a more detailed breakdown of the JMMI’s coverage by month.

Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis Methodology

LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP 3

Sampling

Data collection

Assessed Items

Methodology Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis

4 LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP

Table 1: Items monitored as part of the JMMI

Food items Salt

Sugar

Wheat flour

Rice

Pasta

Couscous

Tomato paste

Chickpeas

Beans

Milk

Condensed milk

Vegetable oil

Green tea

Black tea

Canned tuna

Eggs

Chicken meat

Lamb meat

Bread

Tomatoes

Onions

Peppers

Potatoes

Hygiene items Handwashing soap

Laundry powder

Laundry detergent

Shampoo

Dishwashing liquid

Toothpaste

Toothbrush

Sanitary pads

Baby diapers

Others Cooking fuel (LPG) Bottled water

Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis Methodology

LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP 5

Table 2: Libya Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB)

Key Elements: Food Items

Bread 38 kg Tomatoes 12 kg

Rice 12.5 kg Potatoes 14 kg

Pasta 11 kg Onions 8 kg

Couscous 6.5 kg Peppers 5 kg

Beans 7 kg Tomato paste 7 kg

Chicken 9 kg Black tea 2 kg

Tuna 4.5 kg Vegetable oil 6 L

Eggs 4.5 kg Sugar 2 kg

Milk 10 L Salt 1 kg

Key Elements: Non-Food Items

Bathing soap 1.5 kg (10 150-g bars)

Toothpaste 0.6 kg (6 100-g tubes)

Laundry detergent 1.5 L

Dishwashing liquid 1.5 L

Sanitary pads 4 packs of 10

Cooking fuel (LPG) 22 kg (2 11-kg cylinder refills)

Optional Elements

Water (drinking and domestic

use) 2,790 L

Median rent for a 3-room

shelter 1 month

Float4 20% of cost of Key Elements

4 The 20% float includes expenses on healthcare, education, utilities, transportation, and communications.

5 According to the 2017 Multi-Sector Needs Assessment (MSNA), only 9.0% of Libyans across all assessed mantikas rent their shelters. This figure rose to 61.2% for IDPs. See REACH (2017), 2017 Multi-Sector Needs Assessment, available from http://bit.ly/2rJDFxX.

Methodology Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis

6 LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP

Data Collection Tool

Analysis

6 The final optional element of the MEB, the median monthly cost to rent a three-room shelter in each assessed location, is currently not included in the JMMI due to differences in the methodology required to accurately assess rental costs. All MEB calculations in the JMMI currently cover only the key elements of the basket. When needed, rent estimates are sourced from post-distribution monitoring (PDM) and beneficiary screening datasets provided by CMWG partners.

Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis Methodology

LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP 7

Challenges

Methodology:

7 Baby milk, lamb meat, and baby diapers were excluded from the calculation of the indices because their individual unit prices tend to be relatively high. These items would therefore substantially drive the overall indices and hence complicate the interpretation thereof. Laundry detergent, bottled water, and LPG, meanwhile, were excluded because all were added to the JMMI after the start of the project; thus, any price index that included these items would not be comparable to indices from previous months.

8 During the six months covered by this report, only one price index was left incomplete due to confirmed market shortages: the Food Price Index for Derna in June 2018.

Methodology Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis

8 LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP

Data Collection

9 REACH & CMWG (2017). JMMI December 2017 Factsheet. Available from: http://bit.ly/2Duz1p9

Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis Methodology

LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP 9

Limitations

Food Items Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis

10 LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP

Exchange Rates

Macroeconomic background

10 Since 1986, the Libyan dinar has been pegged to the SDR (Special Drawing Right), which is an international reserve asset created by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Its value is determined by a basket of major currencies, including the US dollar.

Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis Food Items

LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP 11

Exchange rates over time

Figure 1: Exchange rates over time, 1 January 2016–1 July 2018 and 1 January 2018–1 July 201811

11 Throughout this report, parallel market exchange rates have been retrieved from Ewan Libya, http://ewanlibya.ly/news/category.aspx?id=10. Official exchange rates have been retrieved from XE.com,

http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=USD&To=LYD.

28 Nov 20179.630

28 Nov 20171.362

28 Nov 201711.478

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017 Jan 2018 Jul 2018

LYD

USD/LYD (parallel market) USD/LYD (official) EUR/LYD (parallel market)

1 Jan8.870

26 Jan4.000

1 Mar6.340

1 Jul6.805

1 Jan1.356

26 Jan1.326

1 Mar1.338

1 Jul1.372

1 Jan10.643

26 Jan5.236

1 Mar7.740

1 Jul7.951

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018

LYD

Food Items Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis

12 LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP

12 Reuters (2018, 17 Jan). Libyan dinar climbs steeply against dollar on parallel market. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/libya-economy/libyan-dinar-climbs-steeply-against-dollar-on-parallel-market-idUSL8N1PC3RI.

13 Libyan Express (2018, 16 Apr). Libya credit cards and Turkish ATMs: A story that never ends. Retrieved from https://www.libyanexpress.com/libya-credit-cards-and-turkish-atms-a-story-that-never-ends.

14 Cousins, Michel. The Arab Weekly (2018, 4 Feb). What’s behind the surge of Libya’s bungee-jumping dinar? Retrieved from https://thearabweekly.com/whats-behind-surge-libyas-bungee-jumping-dinar.

15 Ibid.

16 Shennib, Ghaith et al. Bloomberg (2018, 22 Jan). Libyans Ditch Dollars as Oil Recovery Offers Economic Relief. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-22/as-oil-prices-bounce-back-so-does-libya-s-ailing-dinar.

17 Zaptia, Sami. Libya Herald (2018, Jan 26). Libyan dinar surges to 4.80 against the dollar – a black-market trader’s view. https://www.libyaherald.com/2018/01/26/libyan-dinar-surges-to-4-80-against-the-dollar-a-black-market-traders-view.

Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis Food Items

LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP 13

18 Libya Cash & Markets Working Group (CMWG) & REACH (October 2017). Market Systems in Libya: Analysis of the Wheat Flour, Insulin, Tomato and Soap Supply Chains. http://bit.ly/2jjRTOE.

Food Items Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis

14 LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP

Food Items

Food Price Index over time

Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis Food Items

LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP 15

Table 3: Food Price Index per location

Region City Median Food Price Index in June 2018

(LYD)

Change since January 201819

West Azzawya 94.51 n/a

Sabratha 94.19 4.0%

Zwara 92.75 n/a

Ghadamis 92.13 -13.1%

Al Aziziya 92.03 0.4%

Alkhums 89.63 n/a

Misrata 87.85 n/a

Ghiryan 86.50 -13.0%

Azzintan 84.22 -13.8%

Nalut 81.39 -12.9%

Zliten 80.40 -15.9%

Sirt 79.82 -8.7%

Bani Waleed 78.38 -12.2%

Tarhuna 77.88 -11.7%

Tripoli 76.61 -13.9%

Median – West 86.25 -6.8%

East Alkufra 101.31 -4.5%

Derna 96.3520 -3.2%

Albayda 89.50 -5.0%

Tobruk 88.26 -3.0%

Benghazi 87.04 1.8%

Almarj 85.94 -6.1%

Ejdabia 83.33 -4.6%

Median – East 88.65 -4.0%

South Algatroun 113.42 3.7%

Ghat 116.00 2.9%

Ubari 108.13 -7.4%

Murzuq 107.83 -9.4%

Brak 106.38 11.5%

Aljufra 97.63 n/a

Sebha 92.73 -5.7%

Median – South 105.71 -0.9%

Overall 89.41 -6.8%

19 Only includes locations with reference data from both January and June 2018.

20 Due to extensive market shortages, no Food Price Index could be calculated for Derna in June 2018. The May Food Price Index has been substituted here, and the change over time for Derna reflects the period from January to May.

Food Items Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis

16 LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP

Figure 2: Median Food Price Index by region from January–June 2018 (normalized: January = 1.00)

21 In 2018, Ramadan in Libya lasted from 15 May to 15 June. All May data for the JMMI was collected between 1 and 8 May, this capturing the preparations for Ramadan; all June data was collected between 1 and 8 June and thus captured the holiday’s full impact on commodity prices.

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Overall West East South

Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis Food Items

LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP 17

Figure 3: Food Price Index from January–June 2018 in selected locations (normalized: January = 1.00)

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Tripoli Ghiryan Benghazi Albayda Sebha Ghat

Food Items Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis

18 LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP

Food item prices over time

22 Max Gallien (30 July 2018), “An economic malaise lies at the heart of Libya-Tunisia border standoff”,

available from https://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/economic-malaise-heart-libya-tunisia-border-standoff-883226567.

23 For a deeper exploration of these dynamics, see Box 4, “Why are commodity prices higher in the south?”, in Libya Cash & Markets Working Group and REACH (2017), June–December 2017 Trends Analysis, available from http://bit.ly/2EU3rF2.

24 In 2016, Libya produced 2.17 million USD worth of potatoes for export, accounting for 50% of its overall exports of vegetable products, and imported 939,000 USD worth of potatoes in the same year, in both cases trading almost exclusively with Tunisia. This dynamic is unusual; while other agricultural products are exported, Libya in general imports far more food than it exports. 2016 economic data from UN Comtrade via the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Observatory of Economic Complexity (https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/lby/).

Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis Food Items

LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP 19

Table 4: Food item prices

Item Unit Median price in June 2018 (LYD)

Change since January 201825

Condensed milk 200 mL 3.82 52.8%

Tomato paste 400 g 2.00 52.4%

Salt 1 kg 1.25 25.0%

Milk 1 L 5.00 25.0%

Wheat flour 1 kg 2.38 15.2%

Vegetable oil 1 L 4.13 10.0%

Beans 400 g 3.00 9.1%

Lamb meat 1 kg 41.00 7.9%

Rice 1 kg 3.50 0.0%

Chickpeas 400 g 3.00 0.0%

Black tea 250 g 7.00 0.0%

Bread 5 pieces 1.25 0.0%

Chicken 1 kg 12.50 –5.7%

Couscous 1 kg 3.75 –6.3%

Green tea 250 g 5.00 –9.1%

Pasta 500 g 1.50 –10.4%

Canned tuna 200 g 4.10 –14.8%

Eggs 30 eggs 12.00 –16.5%

Sugar 1 kg 4.00 –20.0%

Peppers 1 kg 4.25 –32.0%

Tomatoes 1 kg 2.00 –33.3%

Onions 1 kg 2.00 –33.3%

Potatoes 1 kg 2.00 –33.3%

25 Only includes locations with reference data from both January and June 2018.

Food Items Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis

20 LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP

Figure 4: Median prices of selected food items from January–June 2018 (normalised: January = 1.00)

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Rice Chicken Tomatoes

Tomato paste Eggs Sugar

Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis Food Items

LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP 21

26 Libya Cash & Markets Working Group (CMWG) & REACH (2017). Market Systems in Libya – Analysis of the Wheat Flour, Insulin, Tomato and Soap Supply Chains. Available from http://bit.ly/2jjRTOE.

27 Libya Herald (23 April 2015). “Bread and flour crises over, fake bakeries shut down: Economy Minister.”

Available from https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/04/23/bread-and-flour-crises-over-fake-bakeries-shut-down-economy-minister.

28 Libya Herald (30 May 2018). “Subsidised bread flour to be paid for through e-payments to counter 1,200

ghost bakeries.” Available from https://www.libyaherald.com/2018/05/30/subsidised-bread-flour-to-be-paid-for-through-e-payments-to-counter-1200-ghost-bakeries. For more on the phenomenon of ghost bakeries, see WFP, IRC, and FAO (June 2011), Emergency Market Mapping and Analysis (EMMA): Report on the Wheat Flour and Tomato Market Systems, Eastern Libya, available from https://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/ena/wfp238808.pdf.

Food Items Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis

22 LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP

Figure 5: Median prices of bread and wheat flour from January–August 2018 (normalised: January = 1.00)

29 Ahmed Elumami and Ayman al-Warfalli, Reuters, “Bread price hike sharpens economic pain for Libyans,”

available from https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security-economy/bread-price-hike-sharpens-economic-pain-for-libyans-idUKKBN1K22P8.

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Bread (price per 5 pieces) Flour (price per 1 kg)

Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis Food Items

LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP 23

Shortages

30 Ahmed Elumami and Ayman al-Warfalli, Reuters, “Bread price hike sharpens economic pain for Libyans,” available from https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security-economy/bread-price-hike-sharpens-economic-pain-for-libyans-idUKKBN1K22P8.

31 REACH, Derna Rapid Situation Overview: Libya, 1 June 2018, available from http://bit.ly/2LdgVeo.

32 Ibid.

Food Items Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis

24 LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP

33 REACH, Libya Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: 1–8 June 2018, available from http://bit.ly/2L6Fv50.

Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis Non-Food Items

LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP 25

Non-Food Items

NFI Price Index over time

Non-Food Items Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis

26 LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP

Table 5: NFI Price Index per location

Region City Median NFI Price

Index in June 2018 (LYD)

Change since January 201834

West Zliten 38.04 12.7%

Sabratha 37.20 25.0%

Al Aziziya 33.45 43.4%

Ghadamis 33.38 –2.9%

Tarhuna 33.38 1.0%

Ghiryan 32.25 0.3%

Azzawya 32.05 n/a

Zwara 30.62 n/a

Bani Waleed 29.58 –11.5%

Sirt 28.31 –7.2%

Nalut 26.83 –0.7%

Tripoli 26.53 –18.2%

Misrata 22.87 n/a

Azzintan 22.71 –14.6%

Alkhums 21.88 n/a

Median – West 29.13 –2.1%

East Derna 47.49 59.2%

Alkufra 42.68 –25.4%

Tobruk 37.92 9.0%

Almarj 34.58 1.4%

Albayda 30.94 –13.0%

Benghazi 26.00 –17.2%

Ejdabia 16.75 –56.5%

Median – East 32.55 –4.3%

South Ubari 47.63 4.6%

Murzuq 42.15 93.8%

Algatroun 35.42 8.0%

Sebha 34.31 –16.1%

Ghat 33.50 44.1%

Brak 26.55 –25.3%

Aljufra 25.11 n/a

Median – South 31.37 –0.2%

Overall 30.88 –4.7%

34 Only includes locations with reference data from January and June 2018.

Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis Non-Food Items

LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP 27

Figure 6: Median NFI Price Index from January–June 2018 in selected locations (normalized: January = 1.00)

35 Libya Cash & Markets Working Group & REACH (2017). Market Systems in Libya – Assessment of the Wheat Flour, Insulin, Tomato and Soap Supply Chains. Available from http://bit.ly/2jjRTOE.

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Tripoli Ghiryan Benghazi Albayda Sebha Ghat

Non-Food Items Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis

28 LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP

Figure 7: Median NFI Price Index by region from January–June 2018 (normalized: January = 1.00)

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Overall West East South

Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis Non-Food Items

LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP 29

Non-food item prices over time

Table 6: NFI prices

Item Unit Median price in June 2018 (LYD)

Change since January 201836

Handwashing soap 1 bar 2.00 49.5% Shampoo 250 mL 6.00 5.1% Toothbrush 1 brush 2.25 2.9% Laundry powder 1 kg 8.13 –2.5% Toothpaste 100 mL 5.75 –4.2% Baby diapers 30 diapers 21.00 –6.7% Sanitary pads 10 pads 4.00 –15.0% Dishwashing liquid 1 L 2.75 –33.3%

36 Only includes locations with reference data from both January and June 2018.

Non-Food Items Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis

30 LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP

Figure 8: Median prices of selected NFIs from January–June 2018 (normalised: January = 1.00)

Shortages

37 2016 economic data from UN Comtrade via the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Observatory of Economic Complexity (https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/lby/).

38 Sami Zaptia, Libya Herald (11 May 2018), “Fuel smugglers’ sites bombed by Air Force, petrol stations shut down as part of continuing anti–fuel smuggling drive,” available from https://www.libyaherald.com/2018/ 05/11/fuel-smugglers-sites-bombed-by-air-force-petrol-stations-shut-down-as-part-of-continuing-anti-fuel-smuggling-drive.

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Handwashing soap Laundry powder Toothpaste

Sanitary pads Dishwashing liquid

Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis Non-Food Items

LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP 31

39 See, for example, Max Gallien (30 July 2018), “An economic malaise lies at the heart of Libya-Tunisia border standoff”, available from https://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/economic-malaise-heart-libya-tunisia-border-standoff-883226567, and Sami Zaptia (9 August 2018), “Libya’s anti-smuggling efforts of subsidised goods into Tunisia causing diplomatic tensions,” available from https://www.libyaherald.com/ 2018/08/09/libyas-anti-smuggling-efforts-of-subsidised-goods-into-tunisia-causing-diplomatic-tensions.

Conclusion Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis

32 LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP

Conclusion

Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis Annex

LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP 33

Annex

Table A1: Previous JMMI outputs

Monthly Outputs: 2017

Factsheets Datasets

June 2017 June 2017

July 2017 July 2017

August 2017 August 2017

September 2017 September 2017

October 2017 October 2017

November 2017 November 2017

December 2017 December 2017

Monthly Outputs: 2018

Factsheets Datasets

January 2018 January 2018

February 2018 February 2018

March 2018 March 2018

April 2018 April 2018

May 2018 May 2018

June 2018 June 2018

July 2018 July 2018

August 2018 August 2018

Trend Analyses

June–December 2017

Annex Joint Market Monitoring Initiative: January–June 2018 Trends Analysis

34 LIBYA CASH & MARKETS WORKING GROUP

Table A2: Coverage of the JMMI by month

Region District City Jan 2018

Feb 2018

Mar 2018

Apr 2018

May 2018

Jun 2018

West

Al Jabal Al Gharbi Azzintan

Ghiryan

Aljfara Al Aziziya

Almargeb Alkhums

Tarhuna

An Niqat Al Khums Zwara

Azzawya Azzawya

Sabratha

Misrata Bani Waleed

Misrata

Zliten

Nalut Ghadamis

Nalut

Sirt Sirt

Tripoli Tripoli Centre

Abusliem

Hai Alandalus

Suq Aljumaa

East

Al Jabal Al Akhdar Albayda

Alkufra Alkufra

Almarj Almarj

Al Wahat Ejdabia

Benghazi Benghazi

Butnan Tobruk

Derna Derna

South

Aljufra Aljufra

Ghat Ghat

Murzuq Algatroun

Murzuq

Sebha Sebha

Ubari Ubari

Wadi Ashshati Brak

Libya Cash & Markets Working Group (CMWG)