january 21, 2003coommercial sector strays1 stray dogs & cats draft conservation assessment of...

January 21, 2003 Coommercial Sector Strays 1

Stray Dogs & Cats

Draft Conservation Assessment of Commercial Sector Stand-Alone

Measures


Context

• Technical & Economic Potential – Not yet adjusted for achievable

potential

– Not yet adjusted for baseline adoption of measure due to practices or price

– Economic Potential based on TRC Benefit/Cost Ratio >=1.0


• Costs & savings modeled under Council Inputs– 4.75% Discount Rate

– Zero Externalities Credit

– Program costs at 20% of capital cost

Context


List of Measures

http://store6.yimg.com/I/standard-signs_1723_5879753

http://www.energystar.gov/powermanagement

http://e-vending.com/pop_snack_vending_machines.htm


Quiz: Which is the biggest?

• Answer: Later


• Process Optimization

• Sensors & Controls• Remote Monitoring• Training

Municipal Sewage Treatment



• Facilities • 842

• Total Electricity Use

• Total Treated Flow

• Pilot Savings

• NEB

• 2000 MGD

• 340 MWa

• 30% to 70%

• Big and Bold


MST Major Input Assumptions

• Use per MDG from 194 facilities by type

• Total capacity from survey of 842 with

capacity data on about 500

• Costs, NEB and Savings from BacGen

pilots and site visits

• Current penetration minimal


MST Major Input Assumptions

• Savings Potential Inputs %

– Activated Sludge >10 MGD =

– Activated Sludge 1-10 MGD =

– Activated Sludge < 1 MGD =

– Extended Aeration Lagoons =

– Aerated/Mixed Lagoons =

• 9%

• 25%

• 30%

• 30%

• 25%


MST Non-Energy Benefits

• Labor (automation of sampling & report)

• Solids reduction (removal & disposal)

• Chemical reduction

• Capacity enhancement (not quantified)


Remaining Retrofittable Stock

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

Year

MD

G F

low

LagoonAerated/Mixed

Activated Sludge< 1 MGD

ExtendedAeration Lagoon

Activate Sludge 1- 10 MGD

Activate Sludge >10 MGD



Municipal Sewage TreatmentKey ResultsTechnical Potential with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 74Lost Opportunity Potential with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 19Weighted Levelized Cost with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 mills/kWh 22.6Technical Potential with Utility System B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 63

Supply Curve Detail

0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.00

<10 <20 <30 <40 <50 <60 <70 <80 <90<10

0>10

0

Levelized Cost

MW

a

Optimize MunicipalSewage - LagoonAerated/Mixed

Optimize MunicipalSewage - ActivatedSludge <1 MGD

Optimize MunicipalSewage - LagoonExtended Aeration

Optimize MunicipalSewage - ActivatedSludge 1 to 10 MGD

Optimize MunicipalSewage - ActivatedSludge >10 MGD

Frozen Efficiency

2025



• Natural Utility Program– Each facility is different– Strong non-energy benefits– Lots of barriers

• Industrial sewage treatment loads are similar magnitude – Add to industrial supply curve


LED Traffic Lights

• Still remaining retrofit potential• Spotty penetration

– Seattle & Portland completed R&G– Ada County Idaho at 10%

• Costs dropping• Green now cost-effective• It’s a question of when


LED Traffic Lights

• Stock Inputs– Based on national data on signal density– Growth with population

• Retrofit Penetration of LED – Based on informal phone survey by state– Red 56%, Green 38%, Walk 4%

• New Signal Penetration of LEDs– Red 90%, Green 90%, Walk 50%


LED Traffic LightsKey ResultsTechnical Potential with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 14.0Lost Opportunity Potential with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 1.5Weighted Levelized Cost with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 mills/kWh 29.7Technical Potential with Utility System B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 8.7

2025

Frozen Efficiency

Supply Curve Detail

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

<10

<20

<30

<40

<50

<60

<70

<80

<90

<100

>100

Levelized Cost

MW

a

PNW 2000 Green 8-inch balls

PNW 2000 Green 8-inch arrows

PNW 2000 Walk/Don't Walk signals - Small

PNW 2000 Green 12-inch balls

PNW 2000 Walk/Don't Walk signals - Large

PNW 2000 Green 12-inch arrows

PNW 2000 Red 8-inch arrows

PNW 2000 Red 8-inch balls

PNW 2000 Red 12-inch balls

PNW 2000 Red 12-inch arrows


LED Exit Signs

• Stock estimates vary widely– Used conservative estimate– 2,000,000 units

• Retrofit penetration – 20% LED & CFL– Previous CFL available for retro

• New construction penetration– 80% LED



• Cost & Savings Potential– Used RTF assumptions

• Retrofit Technologies– LED 80%– Electro-Luminescent 10%– CFL 5%– Cold Cathode 5%

LED Exit Signs



Exit SignsKey ResultsTechnical Potential with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 52Lost Opportunity Potential with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 3Weighted Levelized Cost with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 mills/kWh 26.6Technical Potential with Utility System B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 41

Frozen Efficiency

2025

Supply Curve Detail

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

<10 <20 <30 <40 <50 <60 <70 <80 <90 <100 >100

Levelized Cost

MW

a

CC on CFL

EL on CFL

CFL on Inc.

CC on Inc.

LED on CFL

EL on Inc.

LED on Inc.


Municipal Water Supply• Identified during sewage

treatment pilots

• Municipal use for treatment is 120 –150 MWa

• Aging systems

• 4600 facilities PNW

• Savings potential 20-30%– 24MWa to 45 MWa

• Need cost estimates – pilot


Municipal Water Supply

Population Served Number of Systems

Total Population

25-500 3,528 469,121

501-3,300 693 964,805

3,301-10,000 184 1,064,488

10,001-100,000 157 4,265,912

>100,000 12 2,705,212

Total 4,574 9,469,538



• Real-Time System Modeling & Optimization

• Pump Systems Benchmarking & Optimization

• Low-cost Metering & Data Collection

• Automated Pressure Management

• Automated Monitoring, Control & Optimization

• Leak Detection & Pipeline Monitoring


Network PC Management

• Better enabling of power management controls• Savings 200kWh/PC Existing• Savings 160kWh/PC New• Stock changeover

http://www.energystar.gov/powermanagement


Network PC Management

• Stock Assumptions– Growth tied to commercial employment– Plus 20% increase in density of desktop PC– Conversion to LCD display– Conversion to hotter chips

• Savings Assumptions– 200 kWh/PC existing PCs per RTF– 160 kWh/PC new PCs


Network PC ManagementRemaining Retrofittable Stock

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

Network PCManagementControl (NewStock)

Network PCManagementControl (ExistingStock)


Network PC ManagementKey ResultsTechnical Potential with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 73Lost Opportunity Potential with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 73

Weighted Levelized Cost with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 mills/kWh 26.9Technical Potential with Utility System B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 73

Supply Curve Detail

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

<10 <20 <30 <40 <50 <60 <70 <80 <90 <100 >100

Levelized Cost

MW

a

Network PC ManagementControl (New Stock)

Network PC ManagementControl (Existing Stock)

Frozen Efficiency

2025


Network PC ManagementKey ResultsTechnical Potential with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 57Lost Opportunity Potential with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 26

Weighted Levelized Cost with TRC B/C Ratio >=1 mills/kWh 25.4Technical Potential with Utility System B/C Ratio >=1 (MWa) 57

Supply Curve Detail

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

<10 <20 <30 <40 <50 <60 <70 <80 <90 <100 >100

Levelized Cost

MW

a

Network PC ManagementControl (New Stock)

Network PC ManagementControl (Existing Stock)

Frozen Efficiency

2005


LCD Computer Monitors

• Market share now 20%+• Costs dropping with

production capacity increases

• Assume in Forecast• Remove 45 MWa at

2025


Power Supplies in Equipment

• TV• Cordless phone• Computers• UPS• Visa machine• Answering machines• Chargers


Power Supplies in Equipment

• US Stock – 8 per person• 2.5 Billion Units• US Power Supply Losses – 350 MWa• Efficiencies

– 40% Low End– 90% High End

• Savings Potential– US 175 MWa, PNW 7 MWa and growing


Packaged Refrigeration Appliances

• Vending Machines

• Ice Makers

• Reach-ins

• Beverage Merchandisers

• Walk-ins

• Water Coolers

http://e-vending.com/pop_snack_vending_machines.htm


Packaged Refrigeration Appliances

US Inventory (1000 Units)

Average Per Unit Savings Potential (%)

Simple Payback (Years)

US Annual Electric Savings (TWh)

US Savings (MWa)

Prorated to PNW (MWa)

Vending Machines 4100 50 <3 6.2 708 28.8 Ice-Makers 1200 35 <1 3.3 377 15.3 Reach-Ins 2100 50 <2 5.5 628 25.6 Beverage Mechandizers 800 50 <2 2.4 274 11.2 Walk-Ins 800 50 <3 5.8 662 27.0 Water Coolers 0 -

23.2 2648 107.9 Source: ACEEE A015


Not Yet Estimated

• Commercial clothes washers• Printers and copiers• Parking garage ventilation• Air compressors• GFX heat exchangers• Street and highway lighting• High velocity hand dryers


Economic Potential - Commercial Sector Strays

74

2514

52

73

457

107

10

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1

MW

a i

n 2

025

Commercial Clothes Washers

Packaged Refrigeration

Power Supplies

LCD Computer Monitors

Network PC Power Management

LED Exit Signs

LED Traffic Lights



january 21, 2003coommercial sector strays1 stray dogs & cats draft conservation assessment of...

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