jan 20, 2011
DESCRIPTION
Jan 20, 2011. Is Tanker Demand Growing Fast Enough? 2nd Annual Marine Money London Ship Finance Forum Henry Curra, ACM Shipping. Crude / DPP tanker spot earnings ($/day). VLCC. Aframax. 5 Yr Average. 2010. 2011. 2009. Panamax. Suezmax. CPP tanker spot earnings ($/day). MR East CPP. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Jan 20, 2011
Is Tanker Demand Growing Fast Enough?
2nd Annual Marine Money London Ship Finance Forum
Henry Curra, ACM Shipping
2
VLCC
Panamax
Crude / DPP tanker spot earnings ($/day)
Aframax5 Yr Average
200920102011
Suezmax
3
LR2
MR West CPP
MR East CPP
LR1
CPP tanker spot earnings ($/day)
5 Yr Average
2009 20102011
4
Newbuilding prices & freight earnings
5
Current global oil demand forecast
2.7m b/d
1.4m b/d
6
Floating Storage – Million barrels
7
Crude tonnage supply
PHASE 1:
MARKET SUPPORT
PHASE 2:
AGGRAVATED
OVERSUPPLY
PHASE 3:
RETURN TO NORMALITY
8
Product tonnage supply
9
Oil in storage
10
Crude tanker supply Vs. tonne-mile demand
*Top 6
Tonne-mile demand
11
Earnings Vs. tonnage oversupply
12
Crude tanker supply Vs. tonne-mile demand
all NB’s deliver as per today’s delivery schedule
25% of 2011 and 10% of 2012 don’t deliver in those years
Tonne-mile demand
13
Non-OPEC oil production
14
Non-OPEC oil supply outlook
15
Oil import forecast for 2011
‘apparent’ oil import demand
oil demand
oil supply
16
Oil import forecast for 2011
‘apparent’ oil import demandoil demand
oil supply
17
Oil import forecast for 2011
‘apparent’ oil import demandoil demand
oil supply
18
OPEC oil supply
+3.4m b/d
+6.0m b/d
19
Current global oil demand forecast
20
Monthly crude oil imports
21
Monthly crude oil imports
22
Monthly crude oil imports
23
Monthly crude oil imports
24
Monthly crude oil imports
25
Crude tanker supply Vs. tonne-mile demand
all NB’s deliver as per today’s delivery schedule
25% of 2011 and 10% of 2012 don’t deliver in those years
X
Tonne-mile demand
26
Fleet growth outlook assumptions
Phaseout assumptions ofremaining spot trading S/H vessels
2011 2012MR1 9 0MR2 2 0LR1 1 0PANAMAX 1 0LR2 0 0AFRAMAX 2 0SUEZMAX 1 0VLCC 7 1
27
Fleet growth outlook assumptions
Projection of net NB removal (slippage/cancellation/misreport)
2011 2012MR1 15 2MR2 27 6LR1 9 1PANAMAX 0 0LR2 3 1AFRAMAX 15 6SUEZMAX 15 6VLCC 22 6
Scheduled NB deliveries
Current fleet 2011* 2012 2013 2014
MR1 791 61 17 7 0MR2 1013 108 64 14 0LR1 294 34 10 13 2PANAMAX 126 1 0 0 0LR2 237 10 10 0 0AFRAMAX 616 60 60 37 11SUEZMAX 356 61 61 18 0VLCC 539 88 62 38 10
*full year
28
Fleet growth outlook assumptions
Projected at start of year16%
23%
32% 25%
10%
29
Tanker fleet growth
Forecast
30Slide 30
ACM Research & ConsultingACM Shipping Limited
Kinnaird House,
1 Pall Mall,
London SW1Y 5AU
Email: [email protected]
Head of Research: Henry Curra
Tel: +44(0)207 484 6369