jamie enderlen (lot) marcia cronce (mkx) dennis vancleve (mkx)
DESCRIPTION
An Examination of Decision Support Services Provided by the National Weather Service during Major Winter Storms. Jamie Enderlen (LOT) Marcia Cronce (MKX) Dennis Vancleve (MKX). What Are Decision Support Services?. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
AN EXAMINATION OF DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES PROVIDED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DURING MAJOR WINTER STORMSJamie Enderlen (LOT)
Marcia Cronce (MKX)
Dennis Vancleve (MKX)
WHAT ARE DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES?
Everything that occurs between finishing the forecast and a customer utilizing the forecast, product, or headline
How does my forecast affect ____ ? Emergency managers Ship captains Snow plows Travelers
How can we relay this message clearly, concisely, and easily?
Do we need to provide extra information to any partners?
PURPOSE
Assess past DSS Establish how far DSS has come How else can we improve DSS
Focus is on major winter storms January 1-3, 1999 Blizzard Strong Winter Storm February 5-6, 2008 Groundhog Day Blizzard February 1-2, 2011
These results can be applied year round
JANUARY 1-3, 1999 BLIZZARD
STORM FACTS – JAN. 1999 BLIZZARD
Second worst blizzard of the 20th Century Second worst blizzard in Chicago
43 MPH peak wind gust 21.6” of snow fell at O’Hare International Airport
In Wisconsin 10-20” of snow in southern Wisconsin 30-35 MPH wind gusts
Widespread whiteout conditions Arctic air behind storm
Min temps of -9°F January 4th and -16°F January 5th
Min wind chills of -28°F January 4th and -31°F January 5th
SOCIETAL IMPACTS – JAN. 1999 BLIZZARD
Chicago Public Schools and Catholic schools closed for 2 days
Highways closed due to whiteouts Numerous accidents
Lake Shore Drive closed for first time due to high winds and potential for flooding
7000 without power in 3 southern WI counties State of Emergency declared in 44 IN counties
and all of IL 40-45% of domestic flights cancelled at ORD,
50% of all flights cancelled at MDW Chicago public transportation severely impacted
during and after the storm
NWS DSS – JAN. 1999 BLIZZARD
Well forecast storm Winter Storm Outlook highlighting potential for a
major winter storm issued 5 days before storm hit
Numerous Special Weather Statements issued before, during, and after storm Strongly worded to alert travelers
Briefed Chicago Dept. of Streets and Sanitation before and during the event via direct phone line
Did not directly interact with TRACON or ORD Tower
Relied on users to call in for extra information
WHY WAS THE IMPACT MINIMAL?
A well forecast storm with a long lead time Occurred over a holiday weekend 280 snowplows (8x more than 1967 blizzard)
Chicago used 125 additional private plows, etc. Airports rented extra equipment to clear runways
Some travelers heeded warnings Left town early Prepared for an extended stay
STRONG WINTER STORM FEBRUARY 5-6, 2008
STORM FACTS – FEB. 2008 WINTER STORM
15” to 20” across portions of southern Wisconsin
and northern Illinois Rates up to 2”-3”/ hour Winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph Visibilities ¼ mile or less Brief blizzard conditions Drifts of 2 to 4 feet Thunder snow reported First storm of this magnitude since Blizzard of 1999
SOCIETAL IMPACTS – FEB. 2008 WINTER STORM Roads became impassable, with some counties
pulling plow trucks More than 2,000 vehicles stranded for up to 12
hours on a 20 mile stretch of Interstate 39/90
Uphill section of interstate where traffic jam began
SOCIETAL IMPACTS – FEB. 2008 WINTER STORM State of Emergency for Dane and Rock counties National Guard mobilized to help stranded motorists Multiple accidents
One fatality Airport closures
Including Milwaukee Milwaukee bus service shut down for weather
for the first time since ‘99 blizzard and second time since 1990 23 buses stuck in snow drifts at time of closure
Many business closures, including rare mall closures
NWS MKX DSS – FEB. 2008 WINTER STORM
Great lead time: 111 hours in HWO…50.5 hours in watch…and 40 hours in warning
Two statewide EM conference calls Frequent forecast and product updates
Hourly WSW updates during heart of storm IEM chat utilized PC Live PNSs and top news story created with 24-hour
snowfall records prior to storm
LESSONS LEARNED
Need for improved situational awareness and communication Situational awareness displays
Frequent product updates with ongoing details can keep people abreast of quickly changing situations
Continue to expand the way that products and advisories/warnings are disseminated
Understand critical thresholds, and highlight when they might be met
GROUNDHOG DAY BLIZZARD FEBRUARY 1-2, 2011
STORM FACTS – FEB. 2011 BLIZZARD
Third worst snowstorm in Chicago Passing system Jan 31st, light lake effect snow
in between, then The Blizzard Feb 1-2nd (with lake-enhanced snow)
Thundersnow reported 3-Day Storm Total
Kenosha: 27.3” Chicago – O’Hare: 21.2” Milwaukee – Mitchell: 19.8” Madison Airport: 18.7” Moline/Quad-City Airport – 18.4” Rockford Airport: 15.1”
STORM FACTS – FEB. 2011 BLIZZARD Winds 30-40 mph with peak gusts of 45 to 60 mph
70 mph Chicago Lakefront 64 mph Kenosha Airport 61 mph Chicago-O’Hare Airport 60 mph Milwaukee-Mitchell Airport
White-out conditions Snow drifts 3 to 8 feet high,
up to 12 feet+
SOCIETAL IMPACTS – FEB. 2011 BLIZZARD
State of Emergency Schools dismissed early Tue, Feb 1 and remained
closed Wed, with a few still closed through Thu Including Chicago Public Schools (first time since 1999)
Government buildings closed to the public on Wed
Groundhog Day festivities cancelled National Guard mobilized Plows pulled off roads overnight – too dangerous Civil Danger Warning issued Lakeshore Drive closed (but not until 8 pm Tue
eve) Interstates Closed (portions)
SOCIETAL IMPACTS – FEB. 2011 BLIZZARD
Airports essentially closed Tuesday night, limited operations on Wednesday
Rail services severely impacted Injuries and fatalities due to exposure, heart-
attacks while shoveling, and vehicle accidents
Power Outages At least 200,000 customers lost power during the
storm
NWS DSS – FEB. 2011 BLIZZARD Well-forecast storm –
HWO mentioned on Fri, Jan 28th Watch issued Sun, Jan 30th Warnings issued Mon, Jan 31st and Feb 1st
Web Information Top News of the Day stories Multimedia Briefings “Getting Through the Blizzard” by NWS LOT Graphical Weather Stories, Nowcasts Social media
Webinars WI State-wide webinars
Weather Briefings Mitchell (MKE) Airport-initiated briefings GLERL for coastal flooding concerns WI DOT-initiated briefings
WI online E-Sponder instant message briefings
BRACING FOR THE STORM Because of our warnings and enhanced decision support services,
cities prepared for this blizzard "Every Chicago resident should brace for a storm that will be
remembered for a long time," Jose Santiago, executive director of OEMC, said. "We just have to see what Mother Nature throws at us."
Plows, schools and CTA are bracing for 18-24 inches of snow Chicago’s full fleet of 274 snow-fighting trucks was dispatched around
2:30 p.m. By 8 p.m., another 120 garbage trucks fitted with plows were expected to be added to combat the expected snow.
Four diesel engines on tracks to remove the snow, plows on front of every train, sleet devices on trains to spray the ice around the rail. “As long as I can keep the trains moving every 15 minutes, we should be able to keep up with the snow being built up on there," said Rich Rodriguez, CTA.
National Guard activated in both WI and IL Troops available to help stranded motorists on interstates Stationed at rest areas on highways with supplies (water and snack bars) Run emergency shelters at armories
RESULTS
HOW HAVE WE IMPROVED DSS? Focus on impacts of weather event not just end result
Snowfall rates Time of day storm will hit
Bulleted headlines Conveying level of confidence and alternate scenarios Increased communication and technology
Conference calls Multimedia briefings NWS Chat DSS webpages Top news stories Social media
Enhanced aviation services Anticipate instead of react
THE FUTURE OF DSS Remind ourselves that a long lead time means very
little if Key partners are not informed Information is not being passed along (storm reports,
updated headlines, top news stories, etc.) Public doesn’t take action
Impact based headlines not criteria driven headlines Use past events to remind users how bad the storm
may be Learn what our users needs are and keep those in
mind What information do they need How much lead time do they need Thresholds (amount of snow, snowfall rate, etc.) Best way to receive products (web, texts, TV, etc.)
THE FUTURE OF DSS
Work with partners (EMs) to make sure proper action is taken
Include ongoing societal impacts in headlines and/or storm reports
Update headlines as often as possible to reflect changing conditions
Find an effective way to communicate our forecast uncertainty Some partners do not understand certain
forecasts are not a slam dunk
QUESTIONS?