j street volume 285

8/19/2019 J Street Volume 285

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ex

rket View

1

mpany Update 2

und the

nomy 3

wledge Corner 3

tual Fund 4

mmodity Corner 5

ex Corner 6

ort Card 7

rt Term Call Status 8

or & Contributor

rgi Shah

cial Contributors

esh Trivedi

tya Nahar

suggestions, feedback

queries

[email protected]

Market View:

Economic reforms are finally started after a long delay

The long processes of economic reforms started by The Modi Government before twohave the time span of more than five years. Gradually The Government is pushing mforms. This year budget was also a part of reform process. To continue with the samGovernment has passed The Real Estate Bill which has far reaching implications. The bhas cleared the mess prevailing in the construction sector since very long time. The AABill passed by the parliament is also an exercise in right direction which will plug the lein subsidy disbursement. The Bankruptcy Law to be introduced in near future is also aeagerly by the banking sector and the corporate world. The real concern emerges from itional level where the central bankers are in race to slash the rates to zero or to negativ

tory. Recently, The ECB cut the rate from 0.05% to zero. All this moves from the centraers indicate that the world economy is still struggling for growth revival and inflation tThe IIP numbers declared yesterday was also below expectations and remained unover the period of time. Export is also struggling with downfall in numbers in straimonths. Considering the mixed picture, it is important to remain cautious and be stock s

During this uncertain time, it is interesting to watch the ETFs available in the markeBees, Junior Nifty Bees and CPSE ETF are worth watching. With minimum risk, one canin the basket of stocks rather than involving in difficult exercise of stock selection. Techany rise above 7550-7600 range will be positive for market with strong support at 7400.

Kamal Jhaveri

MD- Jhaveri Securities

1 -

285March,2016


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2-

Company Basics

E Code 520051

E Symbol JAMNAAUTO

UITY ( in Cr.) 39.74

T.CAP ( in Cr.) 1030.03

Financial Basics

FV ( ) 5.00

EPS ( ) (TTM) 7.41

P/E (x) (TTM) 17.48

P/BV (x) (TTM) 5.17

BETA 1.3666

RONW (%) 11.63%

Share Holding Pattern

Holder's Name % Holdin

Foreign 0.52

Institutions 2.89

Promoters 46.45

Govt. Holding 0.00

Public & Others 50.14

Non Promoter 0.00

mpany Overview

mna Auto Industries Limited is the largest manufacturer of Tapered Leaf and Parabolic Springs for Comm

hicles (CVs) in India. It has been a trusted and preferred supplier of Leaf and Parabolic Springs to all maj

nufacturers. JAI is the only Indian company to provide a complete range of automotive suspension solut

mmercial vehicles.

estment rational

&HCV-fastest growing amongst all automotive segments

Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicle (M&HCV) sub segment, including export sales, bounced back

t growth of 17.4% YoY in FY15 after two years of decline. This was presence of MNC players, the indust

ce increased importance on technologically advanced and value added products. Also, the aftermarket w

important growth and profitability driver for the industry with customers’ preference for quality br

ducts.

L is a leader in spring manufacturer in India

is one of the world's leading players in automobile suspension solutions and amongst the world's top

nufacturers of Multileaf springs with a growing presence in Parabolic Springs, Lift Axles and Air Suspen

companmy is Supplying to Global and Domestic Commercial Vehicle Original Equipment Manufac

h a successful track record of consistently delivering best in class quality.

ong distribution network and marquee clients portfolios

mna has built up a strong dealer network, through its subsidiary - Jai Suspension Systems LLP (JSS LL

r the country to support growing domestic After Market demand. The company sells springs under th

nd in the After Market and its products command premium.

uation : JAMNAAUTO is trading at 134. We recommend “Buy” with target price of 181 , valuing

FY18E EPS of 9.07.The stock currently trades at 17.60x of FY16E, 16.12x of FY17E and 14.66x of FY18E

mpany Update : Jamna Auto Industries Ltd.

285March,2016


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eekly Market Recap :

Meanwhile, the government has scrapped the controversial proposal to tax withdrawals from the Employees' Provident FundFinance Minister Arun Jaitley announced the decision in Lok Sabha on Tuesday, 8 March 2016.

On the global front, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a surprise package of measures to start Europe's econutting its main interest rates and expanding its massive bond-buying program on Thursday, 10 March 2016

BHEL on Thursday, 10 March 2016, announced that it has successfully commissioned the second 500 megawatts (MW) thermt Anpara-D Thermal Power Plant (TPP) in Sonbhadra district of Uttar Pradesh.

Dr Reddy's Laboratories on Friday, 11 March 2016, announced entering into a strategic collaboration agreement with TR-Phmanufacture and commercialization of a portfolio of biosimilar drugs in Turkey

arket Eye Week ahead :

The government is scheduled to announce data on inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) for February 2016 on 4 March 2016. CPI inflation increased to 17-month high to 5.69% in January 2016 compared with 5.61% reading in Decembe

The government is scheduled to announce data on inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) for February 2016 is n Monday, 14 March 2016. WPI inflation stood at minus 0.9% in January 2016 compared to minus 0.73% for December 2015

Shares of public sector oil marketing companies (PSU OMCs) will be in focus as a regular fuel price review is due during the mhe month.

On the global front, the US Federal Reserve's crucial two-day monetary policy meeting is scheduled on 15 and 16 March 20ral Reserve officials are likely to hold short-term interest rates steady at their policy meeting next week amid uncertaintielobal financial markets and global growth.

Events / Factors to Watch

Mon : CPI data for the month of February 2016 and WPI data for the month of February 2016

Tue & Wed : Federal reserve two day pol icy meeting

Producer Price Index (PPI)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is used to measure the change over time of the average price of goods produced domestically

PPI is divided into three levels. The first is the PPI commodity Index, which shows the average price change over a certain timusually a month) for commodities like crude oil and coal.

PPI of finished goods is a direct indicator of the near-term level of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

round The World

285March,2016

owledge Corner :


4/10

utual Fund Corner

4-

Source : - www.valueresearchon

nd Name

heme Name Birla Sun Life Tax Relief 96

C Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Ltd

pe Tax Planning

egory Open-ended and Equity

nch Date March 1996

nd Manager Ajay Garg

Assetsn crore )

Rs. 1928.2 crore as on Jan 31, 2016

Top 10 Sector Break-Ups

Sector Weights Fund

Financial 23

Automobile 16

Services 12

Healthcare 8

Engineering 7.

Technology 6.

Chemicals 5.FMCG 5.

Diversified 4.

Energy 3.

Composition (%)

Equity 97

Debt 2

Cash -0

Risk Analysis

Volatility Measures

Standard Deviation 15

Sharpe Ratio 0

Beta 0

R-Squared 0 Alpha 11

tory 2013 2014 2015 2016

(Rs) 86.06 128.10 137.07 122.74

l Return (%) 9.10 54.54 9.15 -10.45

ifty 50 2.34 23.15 13.21 -1.19

S&P BSE 100 4.72 19.07 10.63 -0.22

k (Fund/Category) 11/37 19/73 7/73 24/81

eek High (Rs) 86.06 128.12 143.72 -

Week Low (Rs) 68.31 78.21 126.69 -

Assets (Rs.Cr) 1401.31 1808.99 1947.66 -

ense Ratio (%) 2.42 2.32 2.38 -

Fund StyleInvestment StyleGrowth Blend Value

Large

Medi

Sma

285March,2016

nd Performance v/s S&P CNX Nifty

FundCNX Nify

based to 10,000)


5/10

mmodity Corner

5-

DAMENTAL: Bullion closed the week with a decline of almost 0.89% for Gold to close at 29500 while Silver dropped 0.51% to close at 3ket stressed eased and equities soared. Bullion prices retreated after Comex Gold dropped from a fresh 14-month peak on Friday, as a recU.S. dollar, stronger global equity markets and higher oil prices dented the metal’s safe-haven appeal. Gold prices soared along with the sday after ECB President Mario Draghi rolled out fresh stimulus measures, including increased asset buying and a deeper cut to deposit raled there would be no further rate cuts. At March meeting, ECB cut deposit, refinancing and margin lending rates among other expandehases and TLTRO. Risk buying emerged in selected assets after the event, although heightened market volatility resulted in some contres. These rate cuts in the Eurozone and Brexit woes in UK make the US the only country which may raise interest rate this year. Even so, y is imminent given a lackluster in US inflation and mixed jobs gains, thus market expects the Federal Reserve to hold rate at FOMC meek. Gold gains solid support as a result of this situation. Meanwhile fresh monetary easing by the People's Bank of China and the ECB hast demand expectations, while a weakening US dollar has made commodities 'cheaper' to purchase, prompting a flurry of buying activity. ply in the minutes following the ECB’s decision on policy. In addition, policy makers reduced the rate on the deposit facility by 10 bas.40%, in line with expectations, and the rate on the lending facility by 5 basis points to 0.25%, while the scale of monthly asset purchas

nded by EUR 20 billion to EUR 80 billion. Hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish position in COMEX gold to the higheths in the week to March 8, US CFTC data showed on Friday, as safe-haven buying lifted prices to the highest since February 2015. Nok ahead, investors will be looking to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy statement for any indication that the bank is considering slowingerest rate increases this year. OMMENDATION : BUY GOLD ON DROP @ 29200 SL 28900 TGT 29600-29980. BUY SILVER @ 37250 SL 36700 TGT 37800-38500

DAMENTAL : Base metals showed decline last week with most dropped was Nickel that closed with a fall of -6.06% following by other basack from highs posted last week due to profit-taking by longs. US non-farm payrolls issued last Friday was not in line with the Fed Labo

ditions Indicators released. On LME Zinc and nickel were the worst performers where by LME nickel plunged 8.27% early this week and USD 800/mt in one night. Later, LME nickel stabilized but still registered a 4.44% fall. While Copper prices have fallen in tandem with Chi

s as worries about growth and demand in top consumer China dominate the mood, though a weaker US dollar has limited losses. Londohange benchmark copper ended down 0.9 per cent at $US4,890 a tonne in official rings. Chinese equities fell as investors interpreted dataumer inflation rising faster than forecast as largely negative for the struggling economy. Worries about demand growth in China were reinf

uary trade data showing a far worse performance than expected, with exports tumbling the most in more than six years. Disappointment tauthorities would not open the fiscal taps to the extent investors had hoped for has also undermined confidence this week. Key to a rec

ese demand for industrial metals is the country's manufacturing sector. The ECB’S Governing Council decided to reduce the benchmark ate by 5 basis points to a fresh all-time low of 0.00%, surprising global markets as all pointed to a rate hold. In addition, policy makers redon the deposit facility by 10 basis points to -0.40%, in line with expectations, and the rate on the lending facility by 5 basis points to 0.25%cale of monthly asset purchases was expanded by EUR 20 billion to EUR 80 billion. The asset buying program was to run until the end o and beyond, if macroeconomic conditions require it, until the ECB Governing Council observed a “sustained adjustment in the path of istent with its aim of achieving inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.” Now in the week ahead, investors will be lonesday’s Federal Reserve policy statement for any indication that the bank is considering slowing the path of interest rate increases this yeOMMENDATION : SELL COPPER @ 338 SL 345 TGT 332-325.SELL ZINC @ 123 SL 127 TGT 119-116. SELL NICKEL @ 605 SL 6570. SELL ALUMINIUM @ 106 SL 108 TGT 103.50. SELL LEAD @ 126 sl 130 TGT 122.50-119

DAMENTAL : In Energy complex Crude Oil prices closed the week at 2595 rallying for most of the week nearly 7.90% as OPEC and Nobers agreed to a March 20th meeting. Crude oil gained as support seen from a weaker dollar, which on Thursday fell by 2.5 percent againof currencies in volatile trading after the ECB eased aggressively. While Natural Gas settled at 123.30 gained by 10.09% after falling to it

in 2016, as traders bought up the cheap commodity ahead of the summer demand as winter comes to an end. The latest weekly declineline supplies wasn’t a surprise, but the strength in demand for the fuel at this time of the year is a shocker. Crude oil rallied after the IEA pations that the prolonged rout in oil may have hit a bottom as low prices were beginning to impact production outside of OPEC. In a montthe Paris-based IEA said that non-OPEC output would decline by 750,000 barrels per day in 2016, compared to a previous estimate of U.S. production alone would decline by 530,000 bpd this year, it said. "There are clear signs that market forces are working their magic anproducers are cutting output," the IEA said. Meanwhile Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said late Friday that the number of rigs dthe U.S. decreased by six last week to 386, the 12th straight weekly decline and the lowest level since 2009. There are now nearly 76% fe kinds from a peak of 1,609 in October 2014. Short-covering began in mid-February after Saudi Arabia and fellow OPEC members Q

ezuela agreed with non-OPEC member Russia to freeze output at January levels, provided other oil exporters joined in. A meeting is plathis month or early next month in which producers will discuss the details of the proposed action. Iran's ISNA news agency reported on

oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said Tehran would join discussions between other producers about a possible freeze only after its own outputsanction levels of nearly four million barrels per day.

OMMENDATION : BUY CRUDE OIL @ 2520 SL 2380 TGT 2650-2780. BUY NAT.GAS @ 118 SL 113 TGT 123.50-128.

BULLION

BASE METALS

ENERGY

285March,2016


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4 -

mmodity Corner

USD/INR

6-

rex Corner

EUR/INR

GBP/INR

JPY/INR

rket Eye Week ahead :

ndia’s rupee stabilized last week, as local stock markets continued to reverse losses amid signs of strong ecgrowth and expectations the country will attract more equity inflows. USD/INR referenced by the global forex closed at 67.05 Friday, virtually unchanged for the week. Relative strength for the USD/INR is below 40 and weawhile the MACD is maintaining a downward trajectory. Currently our view is range bound on USD-INR pair b67.00-68.50 for week.

Level S2 S1 CP R1 R2 High Low Cl

SD/INR 67.02 66.77 67.40 67.65 68.03 67.76 67.15 67


PY/INR 58.76 58.39 59.48 59.85 60.57 60.19 59.10 59


BP/INR 95.57 94.93 96.08 96.72 97.23 96.60 95.45 96


UR/INR 73.73 72.84 74.60 75.49 76.36 75.48 73.72 74

rket Recap :

The Indian rupee commenced higher on Monday, 14March 2016 on sustained bouts of dollar selling frombanks and exporters amid higher domestic equities.

The domestic currency opened at Rs 66.68 againsthe dollar but eased off to a low of 66.99 so faruring the day as against Friday's closing level of

67.05 at the Inter-bank Foreign exchange (forex)

market.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures thegreenback's strength against a trade-weightedbasket of six major currencies, was last quoted at96.27, up 0.04%.

285March,2016


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Minor reversal has been witnessed as it showed a breakout above 7253 last week. More upside can be confirmed if breaklose above 7650 is witnessed. We had said last week that expect Nifty to move up towards 7600. In the event of a further sse and weekly close above 7650 expect the next lower top of 7972 to be tested. The supply zone is at 7863-7972. Downttart on fall and close below 7400. And in long term a fall and close below 6800 can resume the disaster and repeat of 20ould be witnessed.

Macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional iDIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses in the near term

7-

treet Recommendations Report Card

Top Fundamental Stocks

Stocks Rec. Date CMP on Rec. CMP Target AbsoluteReturn @

CMPSta

Educare 01/02/2016 164 155 230 -5% Bu

ware-Wall Ropes 28/12/2015 425 317 550 -25% Bu

spun syntax 23/11/2015 121 99 223 -18% Bu

co Pharma 02/11/2015 509 505 3183 -1% B

F 21/09/2015 1140 1209 1374 6% Bu

uwal ia contracts 24/08/2015 235 242 368 3% Bu

nite Computer20/07/2015 190 193 255 2% Bu

n Spinners Ltd . 06/07/2015 79 57 94 -28% Bu

nk of Baroda 01/06/2015 163 141 217 -13% Bu

bika Cotton Mil ls 18/05/2015 880 830 1149 -6% Bu

dbhavgineering Ltd.

04/05/2015 298 251 430 -16% Bu

kar specialityemicals

16/03/2015 152 166 251 9% Bu

FL 16/02/2015 252 183 368 -27% Accum

Today Network 27/01/2015 222 299 337 35% Bu

M 12/01/2015 1238 1211 1452 -2% Bu

vells India 27/10/2014 274 294 346 7% Bu

C India Fin. Ser. 07/07/2014 39 36 45 -8% Bu

ani Port 05/07/2014 280 232 347 -17% Accum

mna Auto 22/02/2016 133 134 181 1% B

s not important whether you are right or wrong, It’s about how much money you make when you're right and h

ch you

lose

when

you're

wrong.”

285March,2016


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7-

treet Short Term Call Status

285March,2016

DATE STOCK BUY/SELL

RANGE RANGE TRIGGER PRICE

TGT SL STATUS RE

1‐Feb‐16 APOLLOHOSP BUY 1458 1486 1472.00 1520.00 1430 TA

2‐Feb‐16 SYNDIBANK SELL 63 64.2 63.60 60.00 66.2 TA

3‐Feb‐16 ALBK SELL 49 53 51.00 47.00 55 TA

4‐Feb‐16 UCOBANK SELL 32 34 33.00 30.50 35.5 SL

5 5‐

Feb‐

16

JETAIRWAYS

SELL

524

536

530.00

510.00

553

SL

8‐Feb‐16 BHARAT‐

FORGE SELL 758 773 765.50 728.00 790 TA

9‐Feb‐16 INDUSIND‐

BANK SELL 878 891 884.50 846.00 910 TA

10‐Feb‐16 RELIANCE SELL 954 970 962.00 915.00 995 TA

11‐Feb‐16 ADANI PORT SELL 200 206 203.00 192.00 212 TA

12‐Feb‐16 BHARTIARTL BUY 303 309 306.00 322.00 293 TA

15‐Feb‐16 INFRATEL BUY 381 388 384.50 403.00 370 SL

16‐Feb‐16 VEDL SELL 73 76 74.50 69.00 78 TA

17‐Feb‐16 ICICI SELL 194 198 196.00 185.00 204 TA

18‐Feb‐16 DRREDDY BUY 2950 3000 2975.00 3140.00 2890 TA

19‐Feb‐16 DHFL SELL 152 155 153.50 146.00 160 TA

22‐Feb‐16 SRTRANFIN BUY 817 833 825.00 850.00 802 TA

23‐Feb‐16 PIDILITE BUY 630 643 636.50 655.00 615 SL

24‐Feb‐16 DLF SELL 84 86 85.00 80.00 89 SL

25‐Feb‐16 INDUSIND‐

BANK SELL 816 832 824.00 800.00 852 TA

29‐Feb‐16 KSCL SELL 334 345 339.50 322.00 360 SL

1‐Mar‐16 ARVIND SELL 237 242 239.50 232.00 248 SL

2‐Mar‐16 TATAELAXSI BUY 1785 1825 1805.00 1870.00 1750 TA

3‐Mar‐16 MARUTI SELL 3650 3580 3615.00 3500.00 3690 TA


9/10

7-

treet Short Term Call Status

285March,2016

DATE STOCK BUY/SELL

RANGE TRIGGER

PRICE TGT SL STATUS CMP

%T

4‐Mar‐16 TATASTEEL SELL 283 290 286.50 276.00 300 SL

8‐Mar‐16 SRTTRANSFIN BUY 905 923 914.00 945.00 885 TA

9‐Mar‐16 BANKBARODA SELL 140 144 142.00 137.00 148 TA

10‐Mar

‐16

RELCAPITAL

BUY

374

382

378.00

390.00

360

OPEN

11‐Mar‐16 AXISBANK SELL 411 418 414.50 404.00 430 OPEN

STAUTS CALLS RATIO

TA+PB

18

69.23

SL+EXIT 8 30.76

TOTAL 26 100

One call on daily basis is given keeping view of short term trading on closing basis.Time frame and expected % of return is also mentioned with the suggested call.

This call are purely given on technical trading system generated by the Technical Research Desk.Generally Expected Return on investment is 5-6 % with time horizon of 6-7 days.Profit Booking update is considered if on an average expected return exceed 3.50-4.00 % against Expected return of 5-6%Risk- Reward ratio percentage wise depends on the volatility of stock Normally it stands ( 3 : 9)


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j street volume 285

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