iumi 2016 berlin casualty and world fleet statistics as at

IUMI 2016 Berlin

Casualty and World Fleet Statistics as at 01.01.2016

Prepared by Philip Graham

IUMI Facts & Figures Committee

1

Casualty Statistics

Total Loss Trends

Updated 1st January 2016

2

Source: LLI, total losses as reported in Lloyds List

Total Losses 1999 – 2014By Number (vessels > 500 GT)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bulkers Tankers Containerships Non-Cargo Passenger Specialised Fishing General Cargo

3

4

Total Losses 1999 – 2014By Tonnage (vessels > 500 GT)

0

50'000

100'000

150'000

200'000

250'000

300'000

350'000

400'000

450'000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bulkers Tankers General CargoContainerships Non-Cargo PassengerSpecialised Fishing

Source: LLI, total losses as reported by Lloyds List

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

in % of Vessels in % of GT

Source: Fleet numbers : Clarkson Research Services

Losses: LLI, total losses as reported in Lloyds List

Total Losses 1999 – 2014As Percentage of World Fleet Vessels > 500GT

5

Tanker Total Losses 1999 – 2014As Percentage of World Tanker FleetTankers > 500GT

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%




6

Bulker Total Losses 1999 – 2014As Percentage of World Bulker FleetBulkers > 10,000 DWT

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%




7

Total Losses 1999 – 2014As Percentage of World Container Fleet

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%




8

Total Bulker Losses by Age Percentage of World Bulker Fleet

Bulkers >10,000 DWT

0.00%

0.01%

0.02%

0.03%

0.04%

0.05%

0.06%

0.07%

0.08%

0.09%

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25+

Age

2006-2010 2011-2015



9

Total Tanker Losses by AgePercentage of World Tanker Fleet

Tankers >500 DWT

0.00%

0.01%

0.02%

0.03%

0.04%

0.05%

0.06%

0.07%

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25+

Age

2006-2010 2011-2015



10

Source: LLI, total losses as reported by Lloyds List

Total Losses 2000 – 2014By Cause, All Vessel Type (vessels > 500 GT)

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Other

Machinery

Hull Damage

Collision/contact

Fire/explosion

Grounding

Weather

Frequency ( % of all total losses for the period)

2001 -20052006-20102011-2015

11

Casualty Statistics

Serious and Total Loss Trends

Updated 1st January 2016

12

Source: LLI

Serious and Total Losses 1999 – 2015*By Number (*awaiting 2015 serious loss data)

(vessels > 500 GT)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Number of Incidents

Total loss Serious Ex TL Total

Source: LLI, total losses as reported by Lloyds List13

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%




Serious Losses 1998 – 2015*As Percentage of World Fleet (*awaiting 2015 serious loss data)

Vessels > 500GT

14

Casualty of World Fleet StatisticsGlobal Fleet Statistics for IUMI as at 1st January 2016

Prepared for IUMIBy Clarksons Research Services LimitedContact Email: [email protected] Reference No: CRSL-A3554-16

January 2016

www.clarksons.com

Fleet Information

January 2016 16

www.clarksons.com 17

Tanker Fleet

January 2016

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

5'000

6'000

7'000

8'000

9'000

10'000

11'000

12'000

13'000

14'000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

No. of vesselsN

o. o

f ves

sels

Fleet, End Year (LHS) Deliveries (RHS) Scrapping (RHS)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

million D

WTm

illio

n D

WT


Historical Development of Tanker Fleet (No.) Historical Development of Tanker Fleet (DWT)

Note (1): “Tanker” includes all oil & product tankers, chemical tankers and specialised tankers above 100 GT.

Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016 Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016


Bulkcarrier Fleet

January 2016

0

200

400

600

800

1'000

1'200

1'400

4'000

5'000

6'000

7'000

8'000

9'000

10'000

11'000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

No. of vesselsN

o. o

f ves

sels


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

million D

WTm

illio

n D

WT


Historical Development of Bulker Fleet (No.) Historical Development of Bulker Fleet (DWT)

Note (1): Includes all bulkcarriers above 100 GT.



Containership and Multipurpose Fleet

January 2016

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2'000

3'000

4'000

5'000

6'000

7'000

8'000

9'000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

No. of vesselsN

o. o

f ves

sels


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

million D

WTm

illio

n D

WT


Historical Development of the Containership and Multipurpose Fleets (No.)

Historical Development of the Containership and Multipurpose Fleets (DWT)

Note (1): Includes all containerships and multipurpose vessels above 100 GT.



Tanker, Bulker, Containership and MPP Fleets

January 2016

Note (1): Includes all vessels in these categories above 100 GT.Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016

Note (2): All fleet totals are on the left-hand axis and deliveries and scrapping figures are on the right hand axis. Fleet totals are as at end year; deliveries and scrapping figures are full year totals.

0

300

600

900

1'200

1'500

1'800

2'100

2'400

2'700

0

4'000

8'000

12'000

16'000

20'000

24'000

28'000

32'000

36'000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

No. of vesselsN

o. o

f ves

sels

Tanker Fleet Bulkcarrier Fleet Containership/MPPs Fleets Deliveries Scrapping


Cruise Fleet

January 2016

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

No. of vesselsN

o. o

f ves

sels


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

million G

Tmill

ion

GT


Historical Development of Cruise Fleet (No.) Historical Development of Cruise Fleet (GT)



Average Age of the World Fleet

January 2016

Note (1): Includes all vessels in these categories above 100 GT.

Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016

Note (2): Average age is calculated using number of vessels. Calculations are based on year and month of build.

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Aver

age

Age

Total Tanker Bulkcarrier Containership/MPP Gas Others

www.clarksons.com

• Construction Statistics• Freight Rates• Scrapping

January 2016 23


Global Orderbook by Vessel Type

January 2016

23%

27%

18%

15%

2%1%

5%1% 8%

TankersBulkersContainer/ MultipurposeGasRoRo/PCCOther CargoCruise/FerryTugs/DredgersOffshore/Other

Note (1): Going forward, the orderbook will be influenced by delays, cancellations and the re-negotiation of contracts. Due to these technical and contractual issues, there is currently considerable uncertainty surrounding the orderbook. The figures quoted here relate to the orderbook as at January 1, 2016 and take no account for these potential delivery problems.


21%

30%

11%

7%

2%2%2%

9%

16%

Share of Orderbook (No.)

01020304050

Tank

ers

Bul

kers

Con

tain

er/

Mul

tipur

pose

Gas

RoR

o/PC

C

Oth

er C

argo

Cru

ise/

Ferr

y

Tugs

/Dre

dger

s

Offs

hore

/Oth

er

'000

CG

T

Share of Orderbook (million CGT)

Average CGT of Ship on Order


Global Orderbook by Country/Region of Build

January 2016

36%

28%

21%

1%4%

7%2%1%0%

P.R. China

South Korea

Japan

Taiwan

Other Asia

Europe

Brazil

USA

Others



42%

15%

20%

0%

9%

9%2%1%2%

Share of Orderbook (No.)

0

10

20

30

40

P.R

. Chi

na

Sout

hK

orea

Japa

n

Taiw

an

Oth

er A

sia

Euro

pe

Bra

zil

USA

Oth

ers

'000

CG

T

Share of Orderbook (million CGT)

Average CGT of Ship on Order


Orderbook Status by Vessel Type, January 2016

January 2016

m CGT Tankers Bulkers Container/ Multipurpose Gas RoRo/PCC Other

CargoCruise/Ferry

Tugs/Dredgers

Offshore/Other Total

Established <2000 13.3 18.0 10.5 13.2 1.8 0.5 3.7 0.5 4.7 66.1

Established 2000-10 7.8 9.3 6.7 2.8 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.3 1.8 30.7

Established >2010 3.5 2.8 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.07 1.1 0.2 1.3 12.4

Greenfield 0.1 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.5 0.8

TOTAL 24.8 30.1 19.6 16.9 2.7 0.9 5.7 1.0 8.3 110.0

Established <2000

54% 60% 53% 78% 66% 51% 65% 47% 57% 60%

Established 2000-10

32% 31% 34% 17% 28% 39% 15% 29% 21% 28%

Established >2010

14% 9% 12% 5% 6% 8% 20% 23% 16% 11%

Greenfield 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 2% 6% 1%

TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%




Orderbook by Country Yard Status, January 2016

January 2016

m. CGT Japan P.R. China South Korea Europe Others Total

Established <2000 16.2 17.3 23.5 5.5 3.6 66.1

Established 2000-10 2.7 17.3 6.5 1.2 2.5 30.2

Established >2010 4.2 5.1 0.5 1.5 1.5 12.9

Greenfield 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8

TOTAL 23.1 40.0 30.5 8.2 8.2 110.0

Established <2000 70% 43% 77% 67% 44% 60%

Established 2000-10 12% 43% 21% 14% 31% 27%

Established >2010 18% 13% 2% 18% 19% 12%

Greenfield 0% 1% 0% 1% 6% 1%

TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%




Value of Orderbook

January 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Japa

n

Sout

h K

orea

Taiw

an

P.R

. Chi

na

Oth

er A

sia

Euro

pe

Bra

zil

USA

Oth

ers

US$

bill

ion

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Tank

ers

Bul

kers

Con

tain

er/

Mul

tipur

pose

Gas

RoR

o/PC

C

Oth

er C

argo

Cru

ise/

Ferr

y

Tugs

/Dre

dger

s

Offs

hore

/Oth

er

US$

bill

ion

Value of Newbuildings (by Vessel Type) Value of Newbuildings (by Country/Region of Build)

Total value of Newbuilding orderbook as at January 1, 2016: US$289.1 billion (at contracted values).



Tanker Freight Rates

January 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

'000

US$

/day

Average Earnings Weighted Average

Historical Tanker Earnings

● Average Earnings are estimated as daily timecharter equivalents (tce) for voyage freight rates, excluding waiting time, off-hire etc., and expressed in $ per day on the voyage.

● Average Earnings for each ship type are simple averages of the voyage earnings for that ship type.



Bulkcarrier Freight Rates

January 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

'000

US$

/day

Weighted Average

Historical Bulkcarrier Earnings

● Average Earnings are estimated as daily timecharter equivalents (tce) for voyage freight rates, excluding waiting time, off-hire etc., and expressed in $ per day on the voyage.

● Average Earnings for each ship type are simple averages of the voyage earnings for that ship type.



Clarksea Index

January 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

US$

‘000

/day

ClarkSea Index, January 2000-January 2016


• The Clarksea Index is a weighted average of earnings for all the main commercial vessel types, where the weighting is based on the number of vessels in each fleet sector.

• 1980s average: $8,500/day• 1990s average: $12,017/day• 2000-2008 average: $23,438/day

• Record highs before the economic downturn.

- December 14, 2007: $50,700/day.

• Severe correction as the economic downturn developed.

- 2009 average: $11,329/day.- April 10, 2009: $7,442/day.

• Rates in many markets have been at relatively low levels for the past few years though have recently been at their highest level since 2010.

- 2010 average: $15,488/day.- 2011 average: $12,310/day.- 2012 average: $9,575/day.- 2013 average: $10,263/day.- 2014 average: $11,743/day.- 2015 Average:$14,410/day.- January 8, 2016: $12,935/day.


Tanker Asset Values

January 2016

Comparison between Tanker Newbuilding and Secondhand Prices


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

US$

per

DW

T

Average Newbuilding Price Average Secondhand Price


Bulkcarrier Asset Values

January 2016

Comparison between Bulkcarrier Newbuilding and Secondhand Prices


0

200

400

600

800

1'000

1'200

1'400

1'600

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

US$

per

DW

T

Average Newbuilding Price Average Secondhand Price


Newbuilding Prices

January 2016

Comparison between Average Newbuilding Prices


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Inde

x (J

an-2

000

= 10

0)

VLCC Oil Tanker Capesize Bulk Carrier Panamax Containership

Note (1): The newbuilding prices are as recorded at the time (nominal) and have not been adjusted for inflation.


Secondhand Prices

January 2016

Comparison between Average Secondhand Prices (5 Year Old Vessels)


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Inde

x (J

an-2

000

= 10

0)

VLCC Oil Tanker Capesize Bulk Carrier Panamax Containership

Note (1): The secondhand prices are as recorded at the time (nominal) and have not been adjusted for inflation.


Demolition Levels

January 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

mill

ion

DW

T

0

200

400

600

800

1'000

1'200

1'400

1'600

1'800

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

No.

of V

esse

ls

Others Bulkcarriers Tankers

Historical Global Demolition Totals (No.) Historical Global Demolition Totals (DWT)



Demolition Levels

January 2016

Demolition as % of Tanker and Bulkcarrier Fleets (in terms of DWT)


0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

% o

f Fle

et

Tankers Bulkcarriers


Demolition Prices

January 2016

Comparison between Average Tanker and Bulkcarrier Scrapping Prices


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

US$

per

LD

T

Tankers Indian Sub Continent Capesize/Panamax Indian Sub Continent


Demolition Prices

January 2016

Comparison between Average Newbuilding and Scrap Prices


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

US$

per

LD

T

Scrapping Price Index (VLCC $/ldt) Newbuilding Index (VLCC $/DWT)

www.clarksons.com

Disclaimer

January 2016 40

The material and the information (including, without limitation, any future rates) contained herein (together, the "Information") are provided by Clarkson Research Services Limited ("Clarksons Research") for general information purposes. The Information is drawn from Clarksons Research's database and other sources. Clarksons Research advises that: (i) any Information extracted from Clarksons Research's database is derived from estimates or subjective judgments; (ii) any Information extracted from the databases of other maritime data collection agencies may differ from the Information extracted from Clarksons Research’s database; (iii ) whilst Clarksons Research has taken reasonable care in the compilation of the Information and believes it to be accurate and correct, data compilation is subject to limited audit and validation procedures and may accordingly contain errors; (iv) the provision of the Information does not obviate any need to make appropriate further enquiries; (v) the provision of the Information is not an endorsement of any commercial policies and/or any conclusions by Clarksons Research and its 'connected persons', and is not intended to recommend any decision by the recipient; (vi) shipping is a variable and cyclical business and any forecasting concerning it may not be accurate. The Information is provided on "as is" and “as available” basis. Clarksons Research and its ‘connected persons’ make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability or availability with respect to the Information. Any reliance placed on such Information is therefore strictly at the recipient's own risk.

This Information is confidential and is solely for the internal use of the recipient. Neither the whole nor any part of the Information may be disclosed to, or used or relied upon by, any other person or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of Clarksons Research. Especially, the information is not to be used in any document for the purposes of raising finance whether by way of debt or equity. All intellectual property rights are fully reserved by Clarksons Research, its ‘connected persons’ and/or its licensors.

To the extent permitted by law, Clarksons Research and its ‘connected persons’ shall not be liable to the recipient or any third party for any loss, liability or damage, cost or expense including without limitation, direct, indirect, consequential loss or damage, any loss of profit, loss of use, loss of or interruption in business, loss of goodwill, loss of data arising out of, or in connection with, the use of and the reliance on the Information whether in contract, tort, negligence, bailment, breach of statutory duty or otherwise, even if foreseeable.

These exclusions do not apply to (i) death or personal injury caused by the negligence of Clarksons Research and its ‘connected persons’ or (ii) the liability of Clarksons Research and its ‘connected persons’ for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation. In this disclaimer 'connected persons' means, in relation to Clarksons Research, its ultimate holding company, subsidiaries and subsidiary undertakings of its ultimate holding company and the respective shareholders, directors, officers, employees and agents of each of them. This disclaimer shall be governed by and construed in accordance with English law.

CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LIMITED, COMMODITY QUAY, ST. KATHARINE DOCKS, LONDON, E1W 1BF

iumi 2016 berlin casualty and world fleet statistics as at

Documents