itu activities on imt-2000
TRANSCRIPT
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ITU Activities on IMT-2000
3.1.2 ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries
Regional Workshop for the Arab Region on Guidelines on the Smooth Transition of Existing Mobile Networks to IMT-2000 for Developing Countries
Damascus, Syria 13-15 June 2005
Davide GrilloAlcatel Italia S.p.A.Phone: +39 (06) 5480 3430Fax: +39 (06) 5480 4404Email: [email protected]
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 1
Overview
• Status and Outlook of Mobile Services in Developing Countries
• Particular Needs of Developing Countries
• Transition Paths to IMT-2000 Systems• Ongoing Work in ITU-D on Guidelines• Economics of Mobile Network
Deployment• Concluding Remarks
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Status and Outlook of Mobile Services in Developing Countries (1/2)
• From existing mobile networks to IMT-2000
• Lower prices in airtime and terminals
• Increased cellular penetration
• Growing presence of developing countries
• Growth in non-voice revenue
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Status and Outlook of Mobile Services in Developing Countries (2/2)
• Driving forces for IMT-2000
• Overcoming the digital divide
• Availability of high bandwidth on the access loop
• Interworking of different wireless technologies
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Particular Needs of Developing Countries (1/3-a)
• Operator requirements
Role of government subsidy for infrastructure and/or advanced applications (not for infrastructure but for affordability of services by all including universal service obligations).
Government support
Applications such as tele-education, tele-medicine, e-government may require IMT-2000 technologies.
Mass application
Time frame for transition from existing “mobile”/”fixed” towards IMT-2000. Operators should have maximum flexibility in determining and finalizing the transition.
Transition time
Target coverage/service penetration and roll-out schedule set by regulators in some cases. Roll-out obligations must be set keeping in view the business case of the operator and the user’s interest.
Coverage and deployment obligations
Some operators may provide fixed wireless access for IMT-2000 services in urban areas.
Fixed wirelessaccess
Transition costs should be minimized as much as possible becausevast majority of population has little discretionary budget for telecommunications/entertainment.
Costs
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Particular Needs of Developing Countries (1/3-b)
• Operator requirements
Low entry fees. Use of IMT-2000 for access to education in remote villages, rural economic development, access to Internet at affordable price.
Services and applications
Usage of satellite component of IMT-2000.Satellite component
Sharing of (radio / network) resources for rapid rollout and coverage(VNO) can be encouraged to facilitate speedy deployment of new technologies and lower the costs to operators.
Infrastructure sharing
Conditions for use of spectrum (licensing / roaming / coverage / other operator obligations)
Technical and administrative conditions
Access to appropriate frequency bands and adequate spectrum is required. Use of frequencies below 1GHz and allocation of future frequency bands as per WRC/WARC may be advantageous in providing cost-efficient coverage.
IMT-2000 bands
Possible obsolescence of new infrastructure investments while waiting for IMT-2000 demand.
Value depreciation
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Particular Needs of Developing Countries (2/3)
• Regulator requirements
Capitalize on experience of developed countries on- RFP (Request for Proposal) issued for awarding IMT-2000 licenses;·- Rationale behind the preferred license awarding methods;·- Information on the method of determination of Lowest Bid Rates;- Standard concession agreements – including provisions related to QoS numbering, interconnection, roaming, coverage, infrastructure sharing etc. – that were signed with the IMT-2000 operators.
Databases
Capitalize on experience of developed countries on- license awarding method,- license conditions,- license fees,- number of licenses
Licensehandling and allocation
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Particular Needs of Developing Countries (3/3)
• User requirements
Use of IMT-2000 for education in remote villages, rural economic development, access to Internet at affordable price.Improvement of consumers’ education on wireless data applications.
Services and applications
Ease of use and convenience of terminals.The terminals should support local requirement in terms of language and must take into consideration the literacy level across the country.
Terminals
User affordability for services and terminals.Tariffs should be affordable to the end-users.
Costs
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Transition Paths to IMT-2000 Systems –Evolution and Migration
• Evolution* --- “a process of change and development toward enhanced capabilities”
• Migration* --- "movement of users and/or service delivery from an existing system to a new system”
* ITU-R Recommendation M.1308
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Transition Paths to IMT-2000 Systems – Possible Transition Paths (1/3)
• Transition paths – Radio Access Network
PDCPDC
NMTNMT
TACSTACS
AMPSAMPS
UTRANUTRAN
GERANGERAN
CDMA-2000CDMA-2000
GSM/GPRSGSM/GPRS
TDMATDMA
IS-95IS-95
1G operators
1G operators
2G operators
2G operators
3G operators
3G operators
UWC-136/EDGE
UWC-136/EDGE
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Transition Paths to IMT-2000 Systems – Possible Transition Paths (2/3)
• Transition paths – Core Network
Pre-IS-41Pre-IS-41
Pre-MAPPre-MAP MAPMAP
IS-41IS-41
MAPMAP
IS-41IS-41
1G operators
1G operators
2G operators
2G operators
3G operators
3G operators
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Transition Paths to IMT-2000 Systems – Possible Transition Paths (3/3)
• Transition paths – OptionsTo
FromAnalogue systems (AMPS, NMT, TACS)
CDMA Direct Spread (WCDMA)
CDMA Multi-Carrier
(CDMA2000)
TDMA Single-Carrier(EDGE)
TDMA/D-AMPS systems CDMA Direct Spread (WCDMA)
CDMA Multi-Carrier
(CDMA2000)
TDMA Single-Carrier(EDGE)
PDCCdmaOne systems CDMA Multi-Carrier
(CDMA2000)
GSM systems CDMA Direct Spread (WCDMA)
CDMA TDD (time-code)
(TD-SCDMA)
TDMA Single-Carrier(EDGE)
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Transition Paths to IMT-2000Systems – Spectrum Usage
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Ongoing Work in ITU-D on Guidelines (1/2-a)
• Structure of Guidelines (Doc. ITU-D 131/2 Rev. 6)
• SUMMARY• 1 - INTRODUCTION• 2 - DEVELOPMENT OF POLICIES FOR TRANSITIONING OF
EXISTING NETWORKS TO IMT-2000• 3 – TRANSITION PATHS• 4 - ECONOMICS OF TRANSITION TO IMT-2000• 5 – CONCLUDING REMARKS• 6 - DEFINITIONS• 7 - ABBREVIATIONS/GLOSSARY• REFERENCES• ANNEXES A - F• ANNEX G – OPERATOR EXPERIENCE IN TRANSITIONING
TO IMT-2000 SYSTEMS
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Ongoing Work in ITU-D on Guidelines (1/2-b)
• Structure of Guidelines (Doc. ITU-D 131/2 Rev. 6)• CHILE - Implementation of IMT-2000 technology (EDGE) and TDMA
Migration in Chile• HONG KONG - Implementation of IMT-2000 technology (EDGE) in Hong
Kong• HUNGARY - Implementation of IMT-2000 technology (EDGE) in Hungary• JAPAN - Implementation of IMT-2000 technology (FOMA) in Japan• JAPAN - CDMA2000 1X Deployment and Associated Multimedia Services
Launched in Japan• RUSSIAN FEDERATION - Evolution and Migration of 1st Generation
NMT450 Analogue Mobile Networks to IMT-2000• THAILAND - Implementation of IMT-2000 technology (EDGE) in Thailand• UGANDA - GSM networks bring health care to rural Uganda• VENEZUELA - Venezuelan Experience on the Implementation of CDMA
1xrtt Network by one Existing TDMA Operator in the 800 MHz Band (824-849 MHz/869-894 MHz)
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Ongoing Work in ITU-D on Guidelines (2/2)
• Schedules for work on Guidelines
• 31 December 2003: Closing date for WP8F, SG19 (formerly SSG) and Q18/2 inputs for first Draft Guidelines
• 5 January 2004: Start progressing and editing Guidelines text by correspondence
• 26-29 January 2004: Q18/2 RG meeting and second Draft Guidelines finalized
• 6-9 July 2004: Q18/2 RG meeting and final Guidelines version
• 13-16 September 2004: Adoption of Guidelines by ITU-D SG2
• 18-20 April 2005: Production of a first Draft streamlined version of Guidelines (GST)
• 5 July 2005: Second Draft GST• 30 September 2005: Final GST approved by ITU-D SG2
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• The “business plan” methodology
• Estimation of the year traffic demand• Estimation of potential user population• Estimation of service penetration• Estimation of activity factor (per service type and
class)• Estimation of OPEX
• RAN planning• Core Network planning• Assumption on revenue structure for offered services• Computation of NPV
Net Present Value (NPV):
Cumulative discounted cash-flow generated to date, or less formally
The profitability of a business, as appreciated a Year 0, over a span of N years -N ranging from 1 to the economic life of the system
Economics of Mobile Network Deployment (1/4)
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Economics of Mobile Network Deployment (2/4-a)
UMTS Network Deployment
UMTS Network DeploymentUMTS Network Deployment
IMT-2000 Network Deployment
UMTS Network Deployment
UMTS Network DeploymentUMTS Network Deployment
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64 128 384
PS
1264 128
CS
RAN Dimensioning and Planning Tools
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Business Consumer
Dense Urban
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Business Consumer
Urban
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Business Consumer
Suburban
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Business Consumer
Rural
Dense Urban Urban Suburban Rural
UMTS Network Deployment
UMTS Network DeploymentUMTS Network DeploymentTotal population over the service area
Customer base
Customer base
Customer base
Customer base
Customer base
Customer base
Customer base
Customer base
Traffic loading
Traffic loading
Traffic loading
Traffic loading
Y0Y1
Y2
Y9Y10
Y0Y1
Y2
Y9Y10
Y0Y1
Y2
Y9Y10
Y0Y1
Y2
Y9Y10
Y0Y1
Y2
Y9Y10
Userpopulation &
servicepenetration
Deploymentstrategies &
policies
Packet switched services
Circuit switched services
• The “business plan” methodology
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Total population over the service areaUser
population & service
penetration
64 128 384
PS
1264
128
CS
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Packet switched services
Circuitswitched services
Customer base
Customer base
Customer base
Customer base
ConsumerBusiness
RuralConsumerBusiness
SuburbanConsumerBusiness
UrbanConsumerBusiness
Dense urban
Economics of Mobile Network Deployment (2/4-b)
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Packet switched services
Circuitswitched services
Traffic loading
Traffic loading
Traffic loading
Traffic loading
RAN Dimensioning and Planning Tools
IMT-2000 Network Deployment
Deploymentstrategies &
policies
Economics of Mobile Network Deployment (2/4-c)
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Year 0 Year 3 Year 4 to Year 10
Rel-99 from Rel-99 Capacity increasesto Rel-5
RAN- Node Bs- RNCs- UTRAN transport infrastructure
Core Network- MSCs & MSC servers- SGSNs & GGSNs- MGWs- CSCFs, MGCFs, T-SGWs, MRFs- Core network transport
infrastructure
Service Market Segment
- Business- Consumer
Tariffs
55%30%15%
50%35%0%0%
15%
65%35%
55%35%10%
0%60%10%20%10%
60%40%
60%30%10%
0%65%10%15%10%
50%50%
Year 0 Year 3 Year 4 to Year 10
3% yearly reduction in over the wholeeconomic life cycle
Economics of Mobile Network Deployment –Share of Investments (3/4-a)
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Economics of Mobile Network Deployment (3/4-b)
SM: Service Mix SP: Service Penetration TE: Tariff Erosion
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
-8000
[ME
uro]
[time]
Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
Reference scenario
SM+ & SP+ & TE+
SM- & SP- & TE-
Reference offering
Reference scenario
SM+ & SP+ & TE+
SM- & SP- & TE-
• NPV analysis
• Traffic demand
• Service penetration
• Tariff erosion• Service
offering
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Deviation fromassumed service mix
Deviation fromassumed service
penetration
Yearly deviationfrom tariff erosion
Alternative scenario
Service Market Segment- Business - Consumer
Year 0 Year 3 Year 4 to Year 10
65%35%
60%40%
50%50%
SM+ � Y3: +10%, Y10: +25%SM- � Y3: -10%, Y10: -25%
SP+ � Y3: +10%, Y10: +25%SM- � Y3: -10%, Y10: -25%
TE+ � +10%TE- � -10%
SM: Service Mix SP: Service Penetration TE: Tariff Erosion
Economics of Mobile Network Deployment –Sensitivity Analysis (4/4-a)
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Economics of Mobile Network Deployment (4/4-b)
SM: Service Mix SP: Service Penetration TE: Tariff Erosion
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
-8000
[ME
uro]
[time]
Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
Reference scenario
SM+ & SP+ & TE+
SM- & SP- & TE-
Reference offering
Reference scenario
SM+ & SP+ & TE+
SM- & SP- & TE-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
-8000
[ME
uro]
[time]
Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
Reference offering
Reference scenario
SM+ & SP+ & TE+
SM- & SP- & TE-
Alternative offering
Alternative scenario
• Sensitivity analysis
• Traffic demand
• Service penetration
• Tariff erosion• Service
offering
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Usability of the Guidelines
• Key aspects
• Do the Guidelines achieve the goal of providing guidance?
• Do the Guidelines reconcile self-supportiveness, minimum overlap to IMT-2000 Handbook and a complement to the latter?
• Do the Guidelines provide a path for further reading in the related literature?
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Concluding Remarks • While the economic aspects of transitioning to
IMT-2000 systems are common to both developed and developing countries, social aspects have a particularly important role in the latter countries.
• Evolution and migration are the phases through which a transition materializes, with the mix and sequence determined on the basis of economic and strategic decisions to be taken with reference to each individual case.
• ITU-D has taken an active role in assisting developing countries by preparing guidelines aimed at identifying issues and options for a smooth and cost-effective transition towards IMT-2000 systems.
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Acknowledgements
• This presentation bases on the work on guidelines for transitioning towards IMT-2000 systems for developing countries carried out in ITU-D Q.18/2 in collaboration with ITU-R WP8F and ITU-T SG19.
• Info: www.itu.int/ITU-D/
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Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention