it’s innovation, stupid! · billion cubic feet per day . source: eia, annual energy outlook 2015...
TRANSCRIPT
It’s innovation, stupid! Dr. Stefan Ulreich IEA Electricity Security Advisory Panel 7th July 2015
Agenda
The German „Energiewende“ is just an example for other energy transitions taking place globally
There is no way back: “Energiewende” is a now global trend driven by innovation not by politics – and digital is a key element
The energy landscape becomes increasingly complex
Investor owned utilities and the gas industry need to adopt their business models aggressively to this environment.
German energy transition: Achieving the impossible?
Climate Change
Renewable Energy
Energy Efficiency
Abatement of greenhouse gases in %
-23.8% (estimated)
Share in electricity consumption
Share in final energy consumption
25.4%
12.4% (2012)
Reduction primary energy demand
Energy productivity
-3.3%
+1.1% p.a.
… …
…
Source: German Ministry of Economics
Energy turnaround in Spain driven by gas and renewables
Stagnation since financial crisis
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity in
MW
Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas/Oil Others (CHP, waste,..) Wind PV CSP
Source: Red Eléctrica de España (Spanish TSO)
Energy turnaround in the US driven by success of unconventional gas U.S. dry natural gas production
trillion cubic feet
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Tight gas
Coalbed methane
Other lower 48 onshore
Shale gas and tight oil plays
Alaska Lower 48 offshore
Projections History 2013
billion cubic feet per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case
Energy turnaround in China driven by dramatic economic growth China’s net electricity generation by fuel type, 1985– 2014 in TWh
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Other RES
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Other (Coal, gas)
Nuclear
Energy turnaround in the UK: History repeating
Source: DECC – Department of Energy and Climate Change („Generated electricity“)
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1920
1923
1926
1929
1932
1935
1938
1941
1944
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
Conventional thermal CCGT Nuclear Renewables incl. Hydro Electricity supplied
Agenda
The German „Energiewende“ is just an example for other energy transitions taking place globally
There is no way back: “Energiewende” is a now global trend driven by innovation not by politics – and digital is a key element
The energy landscape becomes increasingly complex
Investor owned utilities and the gas industry need to adopt their business models aggressively to this environment.
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don´t know we don't know.“ -Donald Rumsfeld -
Dynamic innovation and technology are driving changes on energy markets Examples
US Gas 2012
Price decreased by 20% each time the installed capacity doubled
Europe 2014: 72% of new installations (22% in 2000)
Renewable energy: substantial size
2000 2013
318 GW
17 GW
2000 2013
139 GW 1 GW
global PV
global wind
Mod
ule
pric
e
1980 1990 1990 1990
1990 1990
2000
1990 1990 2010
Cumulative production
Shale gas: technology „Hydraulic fracturing”
Increasing gas resources change global macro economics
2040 Net importer with 42 bcm
Net exporter with 165 bcm
PV: cost decrease beyond expectations
KNOWN KNOWNS
Source: www.iea.org
Photovoltaic: Continuous cost reduction
05
10152025303540
End-customer price Italy
PV costs Germany
PV costs Italy
End-customer price Germany
PV system price, Germany
[<100kWp System]
2013 2013 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
PV electricity costs vs. end-customer costs [€ct/kWh]
Investment for customers with high own consumption positive without subsidies Dependency on subsidies reducing by further cost reductions and additional appliances increasing the own consumption.
KNOWN KNOWNS
Source: http://www.photovoltaik-guide.de/pv-preisindex
Costs for batteries [€/kWh]
Investment in PV + battery: positive
Electric vehicles reduce costs for Li-ion batteries by > 50% by 2020.
Market leader Tesla “Giga-factory” will produce more than the current global production volume
Batteries: Costs have reached the turning point KNOWN UNKNOWNS
Source: UBS, Tesla, Umicore
Exploding data volumes
3rd generation of the internet – the „internet of things” connects 1 bn people via PCs 6 bn. People via mobile phones 28 bn. „things” in 2020
Digitalization, Big Data & „Internet of things“: Integral part of our life in the future
Time
Today
Intelligent Power Meters
Terminals & automated substations
Roll-out of GIS in the grids
Smart home and end customer data
Improved „operations management“ OMS
Control center intelligent grid
Improved automation DSO-grid
New smart home Appliances and internet
Estim
ated
ann
ual d
ata
Intelligent thermostat
KNOWN UNKNOWNS
Source: based on EPRI (assuming a 1 million customers energy supply company incl. grid and sales activities)
Example for digital handling in the energy sector
2013 2014 2015-2017
Start 2013 – today Germany’s largest installer …rolls up the German installation market
The first online based heating installer • Little assets, no working capital • State-of-the-art digitalization in a traditional market • Proprietary process fully integrated in an
IT-architecture with unique planning tool
Three lasting cost advantages: • No on-site visit needed to create best offer • Installation within 1 instead of 2 days • Largest volume discounts in the sector
Source: E.ON Technology & Innovation
KNOWN UNKNOWNS
Example of digital sales in the energy sector
In 2014 conversion rate of 15% in NL and an NPS of 73 … sells PV-systems online with an individual guarantee on performance
Attractive, personalized offers
Several options to choose for customers
Guaranteed monthly costs and savings are communicated in a transparent manner
Simple, easy to use access for the customer
Outstanding after-sales communication to create excellent customer relationship
Source: E.ON Technology & Innovation
KNOWN UNKNOWNS
Innovations will dynamically reinforce each other
Photovoltaic
Air conditioning
E-mobility
Smart metering
Transparent energy consumption
Intelligent local distribution system
Battery storage
“e-Home Energieprojekt 2020” Interdisciplinary field of research with technical & customer oriented questions: main research on VRDT* / batteries / customer satisfaction / e-Vehicles
Ad *: VRDT = Voltage regulated distribution transformer
Source: E.ON Innovation Center Distribution
KNOWN UNKNOWNS
„Simply because you do not have evidence that something exists does not mean that you have evidence that it doesn’t exist.“
-Donald Rumsfeld -
UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS
Agenda
The German „Energiewende“ is just an example for other energy transitions taking place globally
There is no way back: “Energiewende” is a now global trend driven by innovation not by politics – and digital is a key element
The energy landscape becomes increasingly complex
Investor owned utilities and the gas industry need to adopt their business models aggressively to this environment.
The future energy system is highly complex and will have implications on all our businesses
Customers Heat Power
System Mgmt
Distr. MV/L
V
Transm.
Individual family houses, business premises & offices
Hydro
System Mgmt
PV
Energy Mgmt.
Industry
Wholesale - Price signalling
Nuclear CHP
Substation automation
Gas
Heat plant
System Mgmt System Mgmt
Via transm- or distr. grid
Solar thermal BG
fermentation
NG from DK,NO,RUS
Import/Export
Mini-/micro CHP
Gas mob.
E-mob.
Energy Mgmt.
White goods Storage
PV
BG gasification
P2G
Agenda
The German „Energiewende“ is just an example for other energy transitions taking place globally
There is no way back: “Energiewende” is a now global trend driven by innovation not by politics – and digital is a key element
The energy landscape becomes increasingly complex
Investor owned utilities and the gas industry need to adopt their business models aggressively to this environment.
21
Challenge #1: building smarter energy systems
Cleaner & better conventionals
Smart grids / micro-grids
Smarter Renewables
Integration of transport (power & gas)
Integration of heat
Latin America Africa
North America
Middle East
Oceania
Europe +95 bcma
Asia +344 bcma
38 (+38)
21 (+21)
4 (+1)
23 (+8)
35 (+8)
15 (+3)
63 (-4)
121 (+91)
90 (-19)
10 (+7)
Source: Wood Mackenzie
3 (-3)
+29 bcma from 2013 Atlantic Basin
+139 bcma from 2013 Pacific Basin
Americas +21 bcma
Asia
Global LNG trade growth 2013-20
+49%
Middle East +14 bcma
Challenge #2: building smarter energy supply chains
Seaborne LNG trade to 475 bcma by 2020 with Europe acting as a balancing market
Conclusion
Be part of the transformation Build smarter energy systems Build smarter global supply chains Support gas as part of the solution
Rely on proven partnerships E.ON/Uniper appreciate their successful partnership with Swissgas
Embrace innovation …if only to protect your existing business
It‘s the innovation, stupid!
