itan in brief · to 27% in 2030)). but the path is unclear, because the commission does not state...

ITAN in brief n° 2-gb || September 2014

Integrated Territorial Analysis of the Neighbourhoods

ITAN major findings – ENERGY

EU energy dependency was 44% in 1995; it will reach 65% by 2025 and even 80% for gas. Nuclear energy (mostly in France) and oil production in the North Sea (which is depleted) less and less cover the needs. According to the European plan on climate change adopted by the European Parliament on December 2008, Member States should reach 20% renewable energy in their energy mix in 2020 (the figure in 2012 is 11%), reduce their CO2 consumption by 20% and improve their energy efficiency by 20% ("20-20-20 targets", in 2014 the renewable goal was upgraded to 27% in 2030)). But the path is unclear, because the Commission does not state exactly how binding these targets are. As a matter of fact, Member States do not agree on energy transition (in Germany ironically nuclear power falls but coal rises), nor on shale gas, nor on any common view on energy imports namely from Russia. Without a common energy policy, can EU Member States really have a common strategy vis-à-vis Russia, whatever the field?

Map 1. Energy net trade: the complementarity between Europe and its neighbours, 2011

Açores

Guyane

Guad. Mart. Réu.

Groenland

Svalbard

0 2 0001 000km© CNRS GIS CIST, ITAN, 2013

-60 -40 -20 0 50 200 594-80-100

Net energy trades*in absolute value

(kt of oil equivalent), 2011

No data

Statistical data for Cyprus refer only to the areas under effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus

*Net energy trade / Energy use with :Net energy trade = exports - importsEnergy use = Total energy consumptionA positive value indicates that the country has an energy surplus and is a net importer.

Energy importing countries(% of energy use), 2011*

Importing countries Exporting countries

Energy exporting countries(% of energy use), 2011*

414 654 (Sau. Ara.)

187 575 (Germany)101 842 (Iraq)40 883 (Belgium)10 559 (Egypt) 1 971 (Tunisia)

583 905 (Russia)

This map does notnecessarily reflect theopinion of the ESPONMonitoring Committee

Regional level: National levelSource: ITAN, CNRS GIS CIST - Origin of data: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, WB online, 2013

© UMS RIATE for administrative boundaries - For some territories no clear international statement exists

ESPON applied research 2013/1/22Final Report, version 17/07/2014

ITAN Scientific CoordinatorProf. Pierre BeckoucheUniversité Paris 1 / CIST+33 (0)6 8699 [email protected]

ITAN in brief || September 2014

exports and 90% of its gas exports are sent to Europe, despite the rising part of the US in Algerian sales. The potential for energy collaboration is therefore strategic. It could be the basis for an ambitious social (employment), industrial, technological and environmental partnership between Europe and its Neighbours.

Energy, in particular gas pipelines, implies long-term part-nership. Thus, closer ties of Russia to the Chinese market (see the recent Power of Siberia pipeline to Far-East) and the Algerian will to increase liquefied gas to be sold on the world market are to have a structuring impact.

Four lessons can be learnt from Map 3 on energy networks. First, networks are very dense within the EU, which paves the way to a common energy policy. The second relates to important networks from Russia and rising ones from the Mediterranean Neighbourhood, which contribute to inte-

2

Map 2. Energy imported in Europe: the key role of the Neighbourhoods

Regional level: National levelSource: ITAN, CNRS GIS CIST - Origin of data: Eurostat, 2013



Acores

Guyane

Guad. Mart. Reu.

Greenland

Svalbard


LatinAmerica

NorthAmerica

Source: Eurostat, 2013

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Eastern Neighbourhood

NorthAmerica

CentralAsia

WesternAsia

LatinAmerica

Sub-Saharan Africa

Gulf, Irak,Iran & Yemen

MediterraneanNeighbourhood

EU27

Annual average of energy import to Europe by origin, 2001- 2011Million tonnes of oil equivalent

Source: Eurostat, 2013

Million tonnes

WesternBalkans

No data

(0,5)

Outside Norway, EU energy providers are almost all in the neighbourhoods (in a broad meaning including the Arab Peninsula). Russia comes first. Notwithstanding Arctic potential resources, it holds 32% of the world proven natural gas reserves, 12% of the oil reserves and 10% of the coal reserves. It provides a third of the hydrocarbons imported by Europe and a quarter of its imported coal. The Russian market power is strong in Finland, central Europe, Germany and Greece; it is very strong in the Baltic States where almost all gas and oil come from Russia and where Russian companies possess a third of the local energy companies. South Mediterranean Neighbours come second: they possess 5% of the world oil resources and 3% of its gas; they supply a third of the gas and a quarter of the oil consumed in Europe, notwithstanding the role of Turkey for transit from Russian and Gulf production. Production and transit countries are similarly dependent on European consumer markets: 70% of North Africa oil

September 2014 || ITAN in brief

the EU reduces the long term agreements for gas procure-ment (pipelines) and promotes spot procurements (liquefied gas). The last lesson is the solar potential of North Africa, which could prove a decisive asset for European energy transition if Europe and its Neighbours develop trans-Mediter-ranean power lines.

Europe has begun its transition to lower carbon energy. But the way will be long. First, because EU Member States act in dispersed order, see on Map 4 the case of coal in Poland.

grating this wider region. Nevertheless obstacles remain: the EU tries to lower the Russian market power thanks to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, and to the Nabucco gas project via Turkey –yet it could not compete with the Russian South Stream pipeline under the Black Sea, and has been replaced by a less ambitious project called TAP-TANAP. For its part, Russia attempts to circumvent Ukrainian transit; it has launched the North Stream pipeline under the Baltic Sea directly to Germany –bypassing the Baltic States. The third lesson is the liquefied gas facilities in Northern Africa, since

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Map 3. Energy networks in the wider European region, ca 2010

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0 1.000500km© Mcrit, ITAN, 2013

Acores

Guyane

Guad. Mart. Reu.

Greenland

Svalbard

Regional level: NUTS 2010 & SNUTS V1Source: ESPON Database, ESPON ITAN, Mcrit - Origin of data: ENTSO-E, Concawe, GIE, NASA SSE, MCRIT 2013 ITAN Database


Oil fieldsSize

! Major

!( Small

Oil pipelinesState, Type

Existing, Crude oil

Existing, Oil products

Project, Crude oil

Gas fieldsSize

( In study

!( Major

!( Small

Gas pipelinesState, Size

Existing, 36'' and over

Existing, 24'' to 36''

Existing, under 24''

Project

LNG facilitiesState, LNG!( Existing, Export

!( Project, Export

!( Existing, Import

!( Project, Import

Average solar horizontal radiationkW/m2/day

1,7 - 2,4

2,5 - 2,8

2,9 - 3,1

3,2 - 3,6

3,7 - 4,2

4,3 - 4,8

4,9 - 5,4

5,5 - 5,8

5,9 - 6,2

6,3 - 6,8

Solar installationsPhotovoltaic, UC

Photovoltaic, existing

Thermosolar, UC

Thermosolar, existing

# Nuclear power plants

High voltage networkType, State, Capacity

DC line, Existing

DC line, UC

Transmission line, Existing, 750 kv

Transmission line, UC, 750 kv


Transmission line, UC, 500 kv

Transmission line, Existing, 380-400 kv

Transmission line, UC, 380-400 kv


NO DATA

This dossier can be consulted online, with extendable images, onwww.gis-cist.fr/portfolio/itan_dossier2-gb

Map 4. Share of fossil fuel in the energy consumption, 2011Fossil fuel energy consumption, 2011

Regional level: National levelSource: ITAN, CNRS GIS CIST - Origin of data: International Energy Agency / WB online, 2013



Acores

Guyane

Guad. Mart. Reu.

Greenland

Svalbard

Fossil fuel* energy consumption (% of total) in 2011


16 60 70 80 90 100 No data

*Fossil fuel comprises: coal, oil,petroleum, and natural gas products.

Map 5. Solar electricity production 2010-2030 in the Mediterranean countriesSolar Electricity production, 2010-2030


0 1 000500km© CNRS GIS CIST, ITAN, 2013

AcoresGuyane

Guad. Mart. Reu.

Regional level: National levelSource: ITAN, CNRS GIS CIST, 2013 - Origin of data: Mediterranean Energy Perspectives, Observatoire Méditerranéen de l’Energie, 2013


1

Solar electricity production (TWh), 2010-2030*Value for Western Balkans: average value for FormerYugoslavia countries & Albania (except Slovenia)

146 (Italy, 2030)

13 (Algeria, 2030)

17 (Turkey, 2030)

0,1 (Malta, 2030)0,5 (Cyprus, 2030)2,3 (Jordan, 2030)5,7 (Morocco, 2030)

Statistical data for Cyprus refer only to the areas under effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.

2010

2030 (*Proactive scenario)

No data

Second, because nuclear electricity issue is far from being tackled. Third, because the emerging shale gas issue could complicate the alternative toward renewables. Last, because the map shows that efforts should focus on the Neighbourhoods: if one wants to reduce CO2 emissions, it is much more efficient to cooperate with Neighbour countries so as to help them enhancing a clean economy and to imple-ment jointly better energy efficiency, rather than focusing on the sole Europe.

If one wants to promote solar electricity (Map 5), one has to develop the resource from the more accurate terri-tories, that is to say in South Mediterranean. Though, even in the "proactive" scenario, the Observatoire Méditerranéen de l’Énergie (OME) says that in 2030 carbon energy resources –hydrocarbons and coal– will still make out three-quarters of the energy consumed in South Mediterranean Neighbour countries and two-thirds in Mediterranean EU countries (including France). Promoting solar energy implies a large common will in the region, a strong funding of research in that field, a shared technological and industrial filiere and trans-Mediterra-nean power lines that the region anyhow highly needs. Is it on tracks?

ITAN project fundingITAN project is financed by the ESPON 2013 Programme (European Observation Network for Territorial Development and Cohesion).www.espon.eu

ITAN objectives– Providing territorial evidence for a better knowledge of the Neighbourhood territories (from Morocco to Russia and the Arctic territories), their dynamics, flows between these regions and the ESPON territory

– Building a sustainable database: diverse data types (statistical, network, spatial, grid data) at local level in each country of the European Neighbourhoods, and mapping analyses

– Giving recommendations on territorial cooperation to be picked-up in the territorial agenda of the EU Member States, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland and the Neighbour countries, and to be included within the European Neighbourhood Policy

ITAN projectwww.espon.eu/main/Menu_Projects/Menu_AppliedResearch/itan.html

ITAN consortium– CNRS / CIST (International College of Territorial Sciences), France

www.gis-cist.fr– IGEAT, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium – igeat.ulb.ac.be– MCRIT, Barcelona, Spain – www.mcrit.com– NORDREGIO, Stockholm, Sweden – www.nordregio.se+ close cooperation with a network of scientists of all the Neighbour countries

www.gis-cist.fr/les-enjeux-de-lelection-europeenne-cartes-sur-table/

itan in brief · to 27% in 2030)). but the path is unclear, because the commission does not state...

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