it value - temple mis...expected value e(x) = xp(x) where x is the outcome and p(x) is the...
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IT VALUE
Bruce Hohne
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Core functions of IT – data storage/processing/transport
Shift from strategic resources to commodity factors of
production A cost of doing business IT does not
matter
IT Doesn’t Matter: Nicholas Carr
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“…[IT] makes little direct contribution to the overall performance of a company or the economy until it’s combined with complementary investments in work practices, human capital, and organizational restructuring.”
—Erik Brynjolfsson The IT Productivity Gap
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DIMENSIONS OF VALUE
Project
Portfolio
IT function
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IT VALUE LANDSCAPE
IT Specific Measures
IT Spend as % of revenue
% uptime
Response time
% within Service Level Agreement (SLA)
Business Measures
Revenue
Profit
Earnings Before Interest, Depreciation And Amortization (EBIDA)
Increased sales
Inventory turns
Days outstanding receivables
% increase in productivity
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COMMON IT METRICS
• Estimate direct and indirect costs. Total Cost of Ownership
(TCO)
• Evaluate the efficiency of an investment by considering profits in relation to capital invested
Return on Investment (ROI)
• ROI-like, except use the value of not investing the money somewhere else. Economic Value Added
• This metric calculates an IT project’s value by weighing its ongoing and future fiscal impact. It is particularly helpful in evaluating the choices involved in start-up projects.
Real Options Valuation
• This is the net income an IT project generates divided by the total cost of the assets it used to earn that income. Return on Assets (ROA)
• This works like ROA, but it bases its ratio on the cost of IT services instead of the cost of IT assets.
Return on Infrastructure Employed
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IT FUNCTIONS – VALUE MODELS
Funding Costing
Pricing Chargeback
Source: Gartner (2012)
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PROJECT: CALCULATING VALUE
Intangible versus tangible
Cost / benefit analysis
Net present value
Expected value
Techniques
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NET PRESENT VALUE
Project X
Year 0: $20,000 cost Year 1: $10,000 benefit (estimated) Year 2: $10,000 benefit (estimated)
NPV
𝐸𝑉
1 + 𝑖 𝑛
𝑛
1
$20,000 ($20,000) ?
𝑁𝑃𝑉 =−20000
1.050+10000
1.051+10000
1.052= −1405.90
Assume 5% rate of return
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EXPECTED VALUE
E(X) = xP(x) where x is the outcome and P(x) is the probability of that outcome
Project Y
Security system costs $10,000 Prevents all downtime 5% chance 10 days of downtime 10% chance 5 days of downtime 30% chance 1 day of downtime Each day of downtime costs $10,000
What does the expected value mean?
Cost of system is $10,000 E(x) = $3,000
Can you combine?
NPV = (E(Xyear1))(1.05)-0 + (E(Xyear2))(1.05)-1 + (E(Xyear3))(1.05)-2 + … =
𝑬 𝑿 = -$10,000*1 + $10,000*10*5% + $10,000*5*10% + $10,000*1*30% = $3,000
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Portfolios
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Risk
Financial measures
Scorecard
PORTFOLIOS
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RISK
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PROJECT RISK
Failure to obtain all, or any, of the
anticipated benefits
Higher than expected
implementation costs
Longer than expected
implementation time
Resulting systems whose
technical performance is
significantly below estimate.
System incompatibility with selected hardware and
software.
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DIMENSIONS OF RISK
• Size of staff
• Duration
• $
• Number of departments impacted
• Other …
Project size
• Hardware
• Operating system
• Software
• Database
• Other…
Experience with the
Technology
• Task clarity
• Output clarity
• Stable requirements
• Need to change the organization
• Other …
Project structure
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Low risk (very susceptible to mismanagement)
Low risk
Very low risk (very susceptible to mismanagement)
Very low risk
Very high risk Medium risk
High risk Medium-low risk
Low Structure High Structure
Large Project
Small Project
Large Project
Small Project
High experience with technology
Low experience with technology
PROJECT CATEGORIES AND DEGREES OF RISK
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Assessing Risk of Individual Projects Are the benefits
enough to offset the risk?
Can the affected parts
of the organization survive if the project fails?
Have the planners
considered appropriate
alternatives?
KEY QUESTIONS
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SCORECARDS
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SCORECARD APPROACH
Structured comparison of features
Level of rigor can vary
Quantitative or
qualitative
Product 1 Product 2 Product 3 Product 4
Criteria A n n n n
Criteria B n n n n
Criteria C n n n n
Criteria D n n n n
(Weighted) Total
N N N N
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SCORECARD APPROACH
Where do you get the
list of products?
Where do you get the
criteria?
How do you choose the weights?
Do you just pick the
product with the highest
score?
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EXAMPLE
Cre
ate
a re
po
rt t
hat
sco
res
each
pro
du
ct
Team
ch
ose
s to
p t
hre
e
Eval
uat
e in
a t
est
envi
ron
men
t
The
fin
al c
ho
ice
will
co
me
fro
m t
ho
se t
hre
e What are the pros and cons of this approach?
Community authored textbooks published in a web-based content management system
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PARTIAL SCORECARD
Word-Press
Joomla Media-Wiki
Drupal Share-point
Access controls to give people different levels of authoring (add,
edit, delete) by entry
Organize a series of entries into a chapter, and a series of chapters
into a “publication”
Create custom “publication” from any chapter available through
the system (a “playlist” that other students can access)
Ability to rate and share popular “playlists” of chapters
Version control at the page level and at the “publication” level
(Ability to “freeze” an entry and archive it)
Ability to incorporate multimedia into an entry
Support discussion-board style feedback from readers through
different, access-controlled forums (student forum versus
instructor forum)
Support login-based access control and account management
Convert an entry or a “publication” into a PDF for offline viewing
and printing
Scalability – ability to support a large number of users
Delivery to browser in standard HTML (web-based delivery)
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ACCORDING TO CAMPBELL SOUP…
Source: Joe Spagnoletti
Outcomes Performance
Risk Cost to serve
Value
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Tools
People
Services
Outcomes
Cost-to-Serve Risks
From To From To
From To Material
Material
Sales ($)
COGS ($)
Quality
Outcomes
Performance
Cost
Material
Performance (speed to outcome)
From To
Behaviors
Processes
Tasks
Material
VALUE FOCUSES ON MATERIAL CHANGE