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Istanbul International Water Forum -

May 3-5, 2011, at the Halic Congress and Cultural Centre

Professor Fredrick SemazziNorth Carolina State UniversityDepartment of Marine, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences


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Lake Victoria Basin

Source of White Nile

Directly supports over30 million people.Average economicproductivity between$3-4 billion per year.

Provides water andhydroelectric power

Supports agriculture,trade, tourism, wildlife

and fisheries De ends on Lake Water


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Location of Proposed projects

Karuma Project

Introduction Current Summary Climate projections and uncertainties

Recommendations


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Dramatic Drop in Lake Victoria

Level

Drought?

Excessive Release?


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Major Controversy About

Hydrology Release Rule


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Agreed Curve Rule

Approximate amount of water that

would naturally flow out of lake if

there were no dams.

Historic low = 1133.2 mASL

No flow = 1122.9 mASL


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LOW-HIGH

HYDROLOGY RELEASE

Rule

Low Hydrology scenario (between 1133.5 and 1135 ft.) constant release = 687 m3/s High Hydrology scenario (exceeding 1136.2 ft) constant release = 1850 m3/s


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- When will the lake levels switch from the present declining trend

to the projected increasing trend

- What will the annual average water lake levels be under climatechange conditions

- What will the Season-to-season variability of lake water lake

levels be under climate change conditions

- What will the year-to-year variability of lake water levels be underclimate change conditions

- What are thresholds of acceptable climate model projections

uncertainty for the hydroelectric sector

Key Climate Questions Involved in

Planning of HEP Sector Under Climate

Conditions


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Climate Change Adaptation for the Hydroelectric Power

Industry Over the Nile Basin in Uganda

Climate Indices Model/Present/Future

Climate

Adaptation

Lake Victoria Levels

Comparison with Derived

Lake Level Climate Index

1961-1990

1. Model Validation Based on

Lake

Level Climate Index (1961-1990)

2. Model Projections of Lake

Level Climate Index (2071-2100)

Develop Strategies for

Adaptationof Hydroelectric Power Industry

to Projected Climate Change

Workshop-1 Workshop-2 Workshop-3

Uncertainty Uncertainty


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Hydrologic balance


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(Rainfall Based on 6 Stations)

PL = Precipitation over lake

Weighted sum of annual precipitation over 6stations (Jinja, Entebbe, Kisumu, Bukoba,Musoma, and Mwanza)

E = Evaporation over lake

Constant 1595 mm/year

Ac = Surface area of tributary catchments

Kagera 55800 km2

Nzoia 11900 km2

Yala 2650 km2Sondu 3230 km2

Awach Kaboun 610 km2

A = Only outflow is based in agreed curve orstep release



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Algorithm

Sum Average Annual Precipitation from 6

stations = P

Scale up to precipitation over lake:

PL = P x 1.32

Calculate sub-catchment rainfall for each tributary:

Nzoia Pc = (0.685 x PL) + 154.5Yala Pc = (0.951 x PL) + 64.7

Sondu Pc = (0.666 x PL) + 302.6

Awach Kaboun Pc = (0.785 x PL) + 337.4

Kagera Pc = (0.556 x PL) + 142.8

Calculate runoff coefficient

for each tributary:

rc = 0.0002 x Pc

Total Inflow (Qin) =

2.7 x [rc(Nzoia) x Ac(Nzoia) + rc(Yala) x Ac(Yala) + rc(Sondu) x Ac(Sondu) +

rc(Awach Kaboun) x Ac(Awach Kaboun)] + 1.10 x [rc(Kagera) x Ac(Kagera)]

1st iteration Agreed Curve (Qout1):

Qout1 = 70.332 (Ln-1 8.058)2 (Koren, 1995)

Qout1 = 66.3 (Ln-1 7.96)2.01 (Sene, 2002)

1st iteration level change:

L1 = PL E + Qin/A Qout1

2nd iteration Agreed Curve (Qout2):

Qout1 = 70.332 (Ln-1 + L1 8.058)2 (Koren,1995)

Qout1 = 66.3 (Ln-1 + L1 7.96)2.01 (Sene, 2002)

2nd iteration level change:

L2 = PL E + Qin/A

Qout2

Predicted Lake level:

Ln = Ln-1 + L2

Previous Years Level:

Ln-1

Ln-1(estimated)


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Sensitivity of Water Balance

Model to different data sets

Water Balance Model w/6

stations as in Tate et al.

(2004) (red) compared w/

actual levels (blue)

CRU is more readily

available for longer & more

current time period (black)

Water balance model underpredicts using CRU (1980s)

Predicts higher level 1996-

2005 (over release?)


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IPCC FAR-2007


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(Left) RegCM3 (40 km grid); (middle) FVGCM (100km); (right) IPCC

ensemble (greater than 200km) climate model rainfall projections for

east Africa (A2: 2071-2100 average) minus (RF: 1961-1990 average)

for the Oct-Dec short rains.

Projected Rainfall over Lake Victoria Basin


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NC STATE Dr. Fredrick SemazziClimate Modeling Applications

Regional Hydrological Projections

Present Level (11m)


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Projected Lake Levels

RCM Projections

With Agreed Curve

RCM Projections

With High Hydrology Release

Present Level (11m)

Present Level (11m)


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Conclusions

Decadal variability (oscillatory; EOF1; same sign over EA) highly correlated

with ENSO-like SST pattern also found by Clement et al;

Decadal Variability (trend, EO2; dipole pattern over EA) highly correlated with

southern oceans.

We have tested a suitable framework for assessing future performance of the

hydroelectric energy industry in Uganda

The proposed step High Level & Low Level water release operation rule that

assumes that the upper water outflow threshold based on the early 60s will resultin flooding and will have to be revised.

There is need to develop another operation rule (revised user defined

thresholds) for more optimal adaptation to climate change; will require close

collaboration with SECTORAL experts hydroelectric energy industry in Uganda


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Future Plans

FUTURE PLANS (~1 month)

- Complete calculations are based on PRECIS

model projections and compare with our present

projections (results could WB Project Report)

FUTURE PLANS ~(1 year)

1. Carry out calculations based on CORDEX model

projections (targeting IPCC; paper byAugust/2012); joint with NMHs in Lake Victoria

Basin Region

2. Feasibility study (funded by EAC/LVB; with

Burundi, Kenya; Rwanda; Uganda; Tanzania):

STRENGTHENING METEOROLOGICAL

SERVICES ON LAKE VICTORIA TO ENHANCE

SAFETY OF NAVIGATION AND EFFICIENT

EXPLOITATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES

FUTURE PLANS (~3 years)

Refine understanding of the sources of variability &

physical mechanisms that determine the observed

asymmetric teleconnection precipitation distribution

across Lake Victoria basin and make CC projections &

GPC-based multi model experimental seasonal forecasts

including the evolution of the lakes water circulation and its

impacts for adaptation studies.

Collaborative Research and Education on the Response of Biological &


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CORDEX: COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment

CRMS: Climate Risk Management Strategies

RCC: GFCS Regional Climate Center

NCSU: North Carolina State University

NMHs: National Meteorological & Hydrologic Services

WCRP: World Climate Research Program

WGCRI: WCRP Working Group for Regional Climate Information

WMO: World Meteorological Organization, Switzerland

Figure 4. Research & Operational Integration of Climate Information into Adaptation & Mitigation Planning

Integration of Climate Science with Biology & HydrologyScience

Interdisciplinary Research

Engagement of Policymakers & Policy Implementation

Hydrological & Biological Sciences(Economics, GIS, Statistics, Communication, Policy)

PIRE Climate Prediction Research

NCSU MEAS & STAT

Climate Science

Regional Prediction & ProjectionsInterdisciplinary Research

Climate DataRegional RCC

CORDEX Projections

Implementation of Changes in Policy & Risk Management for DomesticPlanning

Bio-Hydro Data; Current Policy & RiskManagement

Regional Climate Data from Multiple Sources

Station&Gridded

ClimateData

Observed Climate Indices

For Observed

Biological and Hydrological

Sectors

- Climate Model Validation

Observed Climate Indices

- Climate Model Projections

Projected Climate Indices

Options for Climate Change

Adaptation and Mitigation

based on projected Indices

& uncertainty estimates

Training Workshops forManagers & Policymakers

WCRP

WGCRI

Intern

ational

Ove

rsight

Unce

rt

ainty

Uncerta

inty

Development of Adaptation & Mitigation Options

Outreach & Training Materials for

Managers & Policymakers

Enabling

Sustainability

Through

Engagement

Collaborative Research and Education on the Response of Biological &Hydrological Systems to Climate Change over the Eastern Mediterranean

Transboundary River Basins

North Carolina State University (USA)

Universities in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Egypt, TurkeyUniversity of Surrey (UK)

Collaborative Research and Education on the Response of Biological &


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USA: Principal Investigator, Dr. Fredrick Semazzi (Principal Investigator) North

Carolina State University (NCSU; USA)

Caucuses: Dr. David Tarkhnishvili, Ilia State University (Georgia)

Turkey: Dr. Baris Onol (Istanbul Technical University; Turkey)

Egypt: Dr. Mohamed Magdy (Cairo University; Egypt)

Private Sector: Dr. Nihat Cubukcu (MEAS & WeatherPredict Consulting Inc.)

PLEASE CONTACT ANY OF THESE PEOPLE IF INTERESTED IN THE

PROJECT

Collaborative Research and Education on the Response of Biological &Hydrological Systems to Climate Change over the Eastern Mediterranean

Transboundary River Basins

CONTACTS

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