israel-iran war - besa
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
1/51
!""#
ISSN 0793-1042
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
2/51
$
!"
!
!"""""
""
"""
""#
$
""
" " " "
"" ""
$%&$"""'&("
""""
$
!"
!# " " "
"""""""
"
""
)!"
!
!
!
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
3/51
#*+,+-,
!#.
!
#
!
#.
!)
IkeNobutaka 1967 p. 133
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
4/51
$%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%&%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
!%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%'!%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%(
!%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%(%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%#
!%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%&"$%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%&
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%&) %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%&) !%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%&' !%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%&* +%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%&, +%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%&( $%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%&
"%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%&%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%&
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%'%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%,$%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%,
hazard%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%($%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%)"
!%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%)"$%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%)&
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%)$%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%)
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%))%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%)'%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%'"
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
5/51
/
$
)
"
#
#
#
#
*
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
6/51
0
12
#
)
3
3
#
)
,
)
0
4 #
)
# # 5 5 2
##
#
)
###
#
#-6
*
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
7/51
#
4
#)
) 1
!"
#
)
#
###
#
#
"#
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
8/51
-
#
#
#
#
#
)
78
# #
##
#
1
#
!
#
0+,+880,
,+88
#+
#
#
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
9/51
#
6
#,9
# #
#
,,
#
,0
#
,4,-
#
,6
#
#
##
#
#
1,*
:;
,7
)
)
4,,009,,,8
,+
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
10/51
*
09
##
#
04990,
00
04
0-
#!
#
# )
#
#
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
11/51
#
7
#
#
) #
#
)
#
#
## #
06
0*#
"" 07
08
0+
!
!
*40
#
#
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
12/51
8
*89
##49
#
#
8*8
#
#
#""
""
#
4,
""
" 40
#
!
)
!
""
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
13/51
#
+
"""
"44
$
4-"!$
,+7+,+-,
46
4*
47
##
#
)
48
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
14/51
,9
"
"
#
!
"
"
""4+
"
" "
)
"-9
#
# " "
)
#
-,
-0
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
15/51
#
,,
-4
-- #
#
#
"
"-6
-*
#
"
-7
#
#
1
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
16/51
,0
#
" 69
"
6,
)
60
#
$
=
= = =
" =
=#
##
64#
#
=#>? >
=
#=
#=
"
1 51>@5
"
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
17/51
#
,4
#
# #
#
"
# 3
3 )
3
3
#
#
"
#
#
#
6-
,+76"
,+7+
#
"
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
18/51
,-
"
66
6*
#
"
# 67
00,+89 #
68
!6+
,+89
,+80,+8,
,+8-,+80
,+8*,+8-
,+87,+8*
#,+88,+87
,+88
!
)*9#
*, #
)
"
#
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
19/51
#
,6
,+80
6+8,+88
# *0
#
#
.,+80
,+80
#
"
*4
*-
*6
#
6+8,+88
,+87
!
6+8,+87
**
#
,+88,+88
*7
.
,+87
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
20/51
,*
6+8 ,+88
#
,+87 6+8
#
*8
,+88
*+,+88
",09
# 06 79
-999
"
#
,+88
,+8*,7-,+88
066,+88
7,
,+8*
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
21/51
#
,7
69999,8*,+88
06*,+88 ",07,+88#
"
70"
74
7-
76
7*
##
,+88Scud-B
499
*99
#
,+8*,+86 #
*99770+,+88
#
0+,+88
0,,+88
78
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
22/51
,8
# #7+#!
#
A
"
B
,+88 B
# 89
# 8,
80
#
#
$)
,4,+88
)
)
#
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
23/51
#
,+
4,+88
8-
86
!
8*
87
#
88
#
#
# 8+
"+9 )
#
"+, )
+0
6+8,7,+88 8
,+88
B
,+,+,+88B
#+4
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
24/51
09
"
+-
#
##
.+6
# #
#
##+*
#
#
#
# +7
#
)
#
#+8
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
25/51
#
0,
#
#
#
++ #
#
#
#
#
"
"
#
#
#
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
26/51
00
#
#
,99
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
,9,
6+8,+88,77,+88#
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
27/51
#
04
87,+88"
#
)
88,+88
,90
")""
!
#
### #
## #
# # ##
###
#
> A # A
##
,8,*
,+89,,9 #
,-C
8C
#
#
# #
##
##.
)"" ,94,9-
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
28/51
0-
#
# #
,96 Mutually Hurting
Stalemate, MHS
## #
#
#
##
)
) "
#
#
,+8-,+88
#
,9*
#
#
#
#
)
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
29/51
#
06
#
,97
(true believers)
#
#
)
#
,98
#
#
#
#
"
#
#
##
#
###
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
30/51
0*
$,9+
"
#
"
#
#
##
,,9
" #
"#
A
,,, a
B b
C
c ,,0D
d
"
04,+-6,++0
,,4#
#,,-
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
31/51
#
07
! 3
3
!ABc +AD + bCD
"
,,6
#"
bcd
"
"
##
#hazard
&&,
#
,+86,8,*
#
#
Weibullhazard function
#
#
#
#
,7
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
32/51
08
#
#
##
#
#
#
)0994,,7
#
#
#
#
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
33/51
#
0+
#
##
#,,8
,,+
#
,09
#,0,
,00
#
#
,04
)
#
,0-
)
,06
#
#
# #
#
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
34/51
49
#
$# 5 5)
"
!
!
#
,0*
#
#
#
!
#
#
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
35/51
#
4,
#
# #
08*,+89
)
07 ",-
498,+89
"087,+89
,07
"
#
"
,08#
"
,0+
,49
#
$
)
#
)
#
)#
#
",4,
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
36/51
40
)#
,40
# ),44
,4-
#
)
)
#
#
"
,46
.
,4*
)
# ##
$-
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
37/51
#
44
)
)
#
)
)
)
"
#
,47
#)
#
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
38/51
4-
Afrasiabi, K.L., "The Myth of an Israeli Strike on Iran," Asia
Times, 7 April 2005.
Alfoneh, A., "Iran's Suicide Brigades: Terrorism Resurgent,"
Middle East Quarterly, Vol. 16, No. 1, (Winter 2007).
Arend, A.C., "The Role of the United Nations in the Iran-Iraq
War" in C.C. Joyner (ed.) The Persian Gulf War Lessons for
Strategy, Law and Diplomacy (Greenwood Press 1990).
Bennett, D.S. and Stam, A.C., "The Duration of Interstate Wars1816-1985,"American Political Science Review, Vol. 90, No.
2 (1996) pp. 239-57.
Bennett, S. and Stam, A.C., "Predicting the Length of the 2003
U.S.-Iraq War," Foreign Policy Analysis, Vol. 2, No. 2 (2003),
pp. 101-116.
Bill, J.A., "Morale vs Technology: The Power of Iran in the
Persian Gulf War," in F. Rajee (ed.) The Iran-Iraq War: The
Politics of Aggression (1993).
Chan, S., "Explaining War Termination: A Boolean Analysis of
Causes," Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 40, No. 1 (2003),pp. 49-66.
Chubin, S., "Iran and the War: From Stalemate to Ceasefire," in E.
Karsh (ed.) The Iran-Iraq War: Impact and Implications
(London: Macmillan, 1989), pp. 13-25.
Cordesman, A.H. and Wagner, A.R.,Lessons of Modern War, Vol
II: The Iran-Iraq War(Westview, 1990).
Dekker, I.F., "Criminal Responsibility and the Gulf War of 1980-
1988: The Crime of Aggression," in I.F. Dekker and H.G. Post
(eds) The Gulf War of 1980-1988: The Iran-Iraq War in International Legal Perspectives (The Hague: Asser Institute,
1992).
Dilip, H., The Longest War: The Iran-Iraq Military Conflict
(Grafton, 1989).
Evron, Y., "An Israel-Iran Balance of Nuclear Deterrence: Seeds
of Instability," in E. Kam (ed.) Israel and Nuclear Iran:
Implications for Arms Control, Deterrence and Defense,
Memorandum No. 94 (Tel-Aviv: INSS, 2008), p 47-63.
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
39/51
#
46
Fathi, N., "General Says Iran Can Strike Back at Israel," The New-
York Times, 20 September 2007.Gieling, S., Religion and War in Revolutionary Iran (London:
Tauris & Co., 1999).
Goemans, H.E., "Fighting for Survival The Fate of Leaders and
the Duration of War,"Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 44,
No. 5 (2000a),pp.555-579.
Goemans, H.E., War and Punishment(Princeton University Press,
2000b).
Grummon, S.R., The Iran-Iraq War: Islam Embattled (Prager,
1982).Gurr, T.R., Jaggers, K., and Moore, W., Polity II Codebook
(Boulder: University of Colorado 1989).
Hoffer, E., The True Believer (Thoughts on the Nature of Mass
Movements) (Harper and Row, 1951).
Hasenclever, A. and Rittberger, V., "Does Religion Make A
Difference?" in P. Hatzopoulus and F. Petito (eds)Religion in
International Relations: The Return from Exile (NY: Palgrave
Macmillan, 2003).
Hooglund, E., "Strategic and Political Objectives in the Gulf War Iran's View," in C.C. Joyner (ed.) The Persian Gulf War
Lessons for Strategy, Law and Diplomacy (Greenwood Press,
1990) pp. 37-59.
Hooglund, E., "The Islamic Republic at War and Peace,"Midddle
East Report, Vol. 156 (1989), pp. 4-12.
Ike, N., Japan's Decision for War: Records of the 1941 Poicy
Conferences (Stanford University Press, 1967).
Ikle, C., The Social Impact of Bomb Destruction (University of
Oklahoma Press, 1958).
Ikle, C., Every War Must End(New York: Columbia University,
1977).
Kamran, M., The Economic Consequence of the Gulf War
(London: Routledge, 1990).
Karsh, E. (ed.) The Iran-Iraq War: Impact and Implication
(MacMillan, 1989).
Katz, M.N., "Putin, Ahmadinejad and the Nuclear Crisis," Middle
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
40/51
4*
East Policy, Vol. 13, No. 4 (2006), pp. 125-131.
Khadduri, M., War and Peace in the Law of Islam (John HopkinsPress, 1955).
Khadduri, M., The Gulf War the Origins and Implications of the
Iraq-Iran Conflict(Oxford, 1988).
Khomeini, R.,Islam and Revolution: Writings and Declarations of
Imam Khomeini, edited and translated by H. Algar (Berkley:
Mizan Press, 1981).
Khumayni, R., An Unabridged Translation of Resaleh Towzih al
masael, by Ayatollah Sayyed Rubo Slah Mausavi Khamenini,
translated by J. Borujerdi, (Westview Press 1984).MacDonald, C.G., "Iran, Iraq, and the Cease-Fire Negotiations:
Contemporary Legal Issues," in C.C. Joyner (ed.) The Persian
Gulf War Lessons for Strategy, Law and Diplomacy,
(Greenwood Press, 1990), pp. 209-224.
Maghen Z., "From Omnipotence to Impotence: A Shift in the
Iranian Protrayal of the 'Zionist Regime'," Mideast Security
and Policy Studies, Vol. 78 (2008).
Mattes, T. and Morgan, C., "When do They Stop Modeling the
Termination of War," Conflict Management and Peace
Science, Vol. 21 No. 3 (2004), pp. 179-193.
Menashri, D., "Iran: Doctrine and Reality," in E. Karsh (ed.) The
Iran-Iraq War: Impact and Implications (London:, Macmillan
1989), pp 42-57.
Mitchell, C.R. and Nicholson, M., "Rational Models and the
Ending of Wars," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 27
(1983), pp. 495-520.
Momtaz, D., "The Implementation of UN Resolution 598," in F.
Rajaee (ed.) Iranian Perspectives on the Iran-Iraq War
(University Press of Florida, 1997), pp. 123-132.Pelletiere, S.C. and Johnson, V.D. II, Lessons Learned: The Iran-
Iraq War(Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College,
1991).
Rajaee, F.,"Views from Within," in F. Rajaee (ed) Iranian
Perspectives on the Iran-Iraq War (University Press of
Florida, 1997).
Rajaee, F., The Iran-Iraq War: The Politics of Aggression
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
41/51
#
47
(University Press of Florida, 1993).
Ramazani, R.K., "Who Started the Iran-Iraq War?" VirginiaJournal of International Law, Vol. 33, No. 1, (Fall 1992), pp.
70-71.
Rubin, U., "Missile Defense and Israel's Deterrence against a
Nuclear Iran," in E. Kam (ed.) Israel and Nuclear Iran:
Implications for Arms Control, Deterrence and Defense (INSS
Memorandum 94, 2008), pp. 65-81.
Segal, D., "The Iran-Iraq War: A Military Analysis," Foreign
Affairs, Vol. 66 (1988), pp. 946-963.
Shemirani, S.T., "The War of the Cities," in F. Rajee (ed.) TheIran-Iraq War: The Politics of Aggression (University Press of
Florida, 1993), pp. 32-40.
Shichor, Y., "Competence and Incompetence: The Political
Economy of China's Relation with the Middle East," Asian
Perspectives, Vol. 30, No. 4, (2006), pp. 39-67.
Slantchev, L., "How Initiators End Their Wars: The Duration of
Warfare and the Terms of Peace," American Journal of
Political Science, Vol. 48, No. 4, (2004), pp. 813-829.
Tabatabai, A.S.M.H., Shi'ite Islam, translated by Seyyed Hossein
Nasr (London: Allen and Unwin, 1975).
Tousi, R.R., "Containment and Animosity: The United States and
the War," in F. Rajaee (ed.) Iranian Perspectives on the Iran-
Iraq War, (University Press of Florida, 1997), pp. 49-61.
Vuchinich, S. and Teachman, J., "Influences on the Duration of
Wars, Strikes, Riots and Family Arguments," Journal of
Conflict Resolution, Vol. 37, No. 3, (1993), pp. 544-568.
Werner, S., "Negotiating the Terms of Settlement: War Aims and
Bargaining Leverage,"Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 42,
No. 3, (1998), pp. 321.Wilbur, R.M., "The Iran-Iraq War: An Analysis of the Cease-fire,"
The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Vol. 14, (1990).
Wittman, D., "How a War Ends: A Rational Model Approach,"
Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 23, (1979), pp. 743-763.
Wright, C., "Implications of the Iran-Iraq War," Foreign Affairs,
(Winter 1980-1981), pp. 277.
Wright, C., "Religion and Strategy in the Iran-Iraq War," Third
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
42/51
48
World Quarterly, Vol. 7, (1985), pp. 839-852.
Zartman, I.W., "Ripening Conflict, Ripe Moment, Formula andMediation," in D. BenDahmane and J. Mcdonald (eds),
Perspectives on Negotiation (Government Printing Office,
1986).
Zartman, W.I., "The Timing of Peace Initiatives: Hurting
Stalemates and Ripe Moments," The Global Review of
Ethnopolitics, Vol. 1, No. 1, (2001), pp. 8-18.
Zartman, W.I., "Ripeness: The Hurting Stalemate and Beyond," in
W.I. Zartman (ed.) International Conflict Resolution after the
Cold War, (2000).
Zonis, M. and Brumberg, D., "Shi'ism As Interpreted by
Khomeini: An Ideology of Revolutionary Violence," in M.
Krammer (ed.) Shiism, Resistance and Revolution (London:
Westview Press, 1987).
",86099*
060997
!
8,099*
08907+,+8,",,0
"
,+8*,+89
"""+009-099+
!
#099,",8-,*7
!
#,-099-"4+04*7
!
)
D4994099+
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
43/51
#
4+
"!
,+++
,+8*
!
)0998
"
)
D4994099+
".-4,+++
" .
0998"4609
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
44/51
-9
1Afarsiabi 20052Maghen 20083
4#5
09*,+80
Cordesmanand Wagner 1990 p. 141
6 00",+,9+9*!96
7Chan 2003, Goemans 2000a, Bennett and Stam 19968Mitchell and Nicholson 2003, Zartman 2000, Wittman 1997, Vuchinich and
Teachman 19939Rubin 2007
10globalsecurity,09,9+#,9906411
Fathi 200712
#
#
Grummon 1982(Cordesman and Wagner 1990 p. 5, 134
#
13
DailyTelegraph06*099714
TIME4,949+099+
#.15
0998 4
,+++16 #
#
460617Evron 2008
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
45/51
#
-,
18
0998 497099+4,,009,,0-,
0--
4,,0099819"20099+21
896099+Jimma Times
,,96099+www.jimmatimes.com22
0998
23
Alfoneh 2007
24099725099*
) "-0 : ;
"-4
!)
#"48
"04)
"04B)#
# #
)260998
"49
27
28"099+290998"0+08
30E31,+++"732Zonis and Brumberg 1987,+8*33,+8*",44
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
46/51
-0
34
35# " 4*,+*4
Khomeini1981 pp. 177-178
36,+8*37#
709Khadduri 1955 pp. 193-19738099-"479
39099,40
""
41"Menashri 1989 p. 4542,+++",,-,9*43099-"4*+44099*45Maghen 2008, p. 1246099847Evron 200848Maghen 200849099+)
0998",66
500998",6*
)51,+++",,,,,952 *99 "
099+
: ) ; : ;
53Hasenclever and Rittberger 2003 pp. 117-1194947-6
54Khadduri 1955 Ch. XII554,9,+7856pp. 104-116.Khadduri 198857
,+8958)
(Khadduri 1988Bill 1993 p. 199
) ,++, *6+8
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
47/51
#
-4
00+89 UN Doc. s/23273 (1991)Ramazani 199259Cordesman and Wagner 1990 p. 77
Hooglund 1990 p. 40!#,+89,+80
,+80 ,+8-#,+87,+87,+88
6004,+89Arend 1990 p. 191
61-7+08+896,-,0780600-,9806-94,,984660,*8-6800-08*688
8,98*6+80978762Gieling 199963"6+887UN
Doc. S/19031Khadduri 1988 pp. 219-22264Dekker 1992 p. 249# 099*
7,,099*65 Cordesman and Wagner 1990 p. 142
#
666+8,+87Khadduri 1988676+8,+88Khadduri 198868
#
#,7
#
69 #
#Pelletiere and Johnson1991 pp. 37-42
70Segal 1988 p. 94771,Salamcheh0972 #Cordesman and Wagner 1990 p 389 *9
-999"73679-49469
499
!,499*999*9999Cordesman and Wagner 1990 p. 396
74#Hooglund 1990 p. 52Iran Times"
75 Washington Post 17.1.89 Cordesman and-
Wagner 1990 p. 396",+788 #
#769C069C
)76
Khadduri 1955, Ch XXII
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
48/51
--
77
),++,78Cordesman and Wagner 1990 p. 380Shemirani 1993 p 37
#,+888*
4-779
Shemirani 1993799,,99
80
"p. 52Hooglund 1990B#
p. 31Kamran 1990
,+78 ,+8*
81Cordesman and Wagner 1990 p. 368 #
#82Chubin 1989 p. 2183Cordesman and Wagner 1990 pp. 375-381, 390-39484 )6+8 #
*88704+87
0*+87Momtaz 1997 p. 12585"Tousi 1997 p. 5886"Tousi 1997 p. 5887
F4- ,+80F,-* ,+88 # ) ,+8- F,0#
80999,+80
68999,+8*Kamran 1990 p. 12288Wilbur 1990 p. 12489Khadduri 1955 Ch XXII90Gieling 1999 pp. 168-171
91"4*8+92"09,+8893
Cordesman and Wagner 1990 p. 3 CIA 749999-69999
Hooglund 1989 #
,*9999 ,,999
,099999*99999Cordesman and Wagner 1990 p. 3Hooglund 1989# 799999-99999B
Cordesman and Wagner 1990 p. 3Hooglund 1989 ,*99999 4*9999
0499999 #B
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
49/51
#
-6
,++,) UN Doc. s/23273 (1991)#,*99--9-+9*--
,++,Rajaee 1997 p. 2Kamran 1990 p. 127*--
#79
Kamran 1990 p. 13594Hooglund 1990 #
) 6+8 #
#
"8,+88 Cordesman and Wagner 1990 p. 379
95Bill 1993 p. 20796Werner 1998 p. 324
##
97Chan 2003 pp. 49-50
Mattes and Morgan 2004, Goemans 2000b, Werner 1998#
98 Ikle 1977 #
99Wittman 1979Mitchell and Nicholson1983
Vuchinich and Teachman 1993 Goemans 2000b p. 8
100#
: ;
Tabatabai 1975 p. 16101Cordesman and Wagner 1990 pp. 396-399102Vuchinich and Teachman 1993103
B)""###
###
104Bennett and Stam 1996105Zartman 1986, Zartman 2000, Zartman 2001
106Chubin 1989 p. 16Hoffer 1951108Zartman 2000109Chan 2003110
##
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
50/51
-*
",+76#
#111
# "
112Goemans 2000a, 2000b
###"
"
Gurr, Jaggers and Moore 1989#
113 " #
114115
bCd"
116Bennett and Stam 1996Goemans2000b p. 67
117Bennett and Stam 2006118
#Bennett andStam 2006 Footnote in page 101
119Gomens 2000a, 2000b
#
120"121 #
122 #
123
##124"#
125#,+,8
##126,+8,127Cordesman and Wagner 1990 pp. 117-118128Gieling 1999 pp. 170-171129Goemans 2000a, 2000b
-
8/4/2019 Israel-Iran War - BESA
51/51
#
130
Ikle 1958
131
132)(Katz 2006))
(Shichor 2006) #
133)
134
135 #
)#
)
136Maghen 20081370-