Is there something new in global politics?How to regulate it, anyway?

Evangelische Akademie LoccumConference on Global Governance

December 13, 2002Klaus Segbers

Free University of Berlin

Content/ Overview:

0 Intro/ general remarks

1 The new global context

2 Future scenarios

0 A moving target...

What is the polis?

What about is the science about the polis?

There are few permanent answers...and today, there is a crisis of interpretation: are we „losing control“?

0.1 Globalization as a political project?

No.While there are groups and individuals propagating de-limitation and neo-liberalism, this is not decisive.G. is the product of technical innovations (digitalization, bio- and nanotechnology), of the increasing role of borderless flows, of the commodification of time and space, and of insufficient regulation tools (governance).The result is g. by default, not by design.

0.2 Globalization as a U.S. tool?

No.The U.S. is currently a very powerful, though also fragmented country, and it is a big corporate marketplace. But it does not execute a global masterplan.G. is the outcome of utility driven moves by millions of heterogeneous players who act everywhere on different levels and in diverse spheres every day.

0.3 Globalization as result of a new context?

Yes.

Post-Westphalian context is gone

Post- Cold War context is basically gone

9/11 as a symbol of a new environment

0.4 New Concepts

New Centralities (Saskia Sassen)Soft institutions (Saskia Sassen)Network Society (Manuel Castells)Flows (Manuel Castells)Scapes (Arjun Appadurai)Patchworks

1.1 Directions of Development 1

ACTORS

Polis, state as unitary actors, black boxes, container units

Multitude of actors, different levels, patchwork

1.2 PatchworkTerritories/ Regions

Sectors/ FIGs

Admin Groups/ Bureaucracies

Social Actors

Interactions

1.3 Directions of Development 2

INSTITUTIONS and RULES

Formal, complementary, top-down

Informal, overlapping, multi-level

1.4 Directions of Development 3

ACTION

Sovereign, consistent, directed

Fragmented, ad-hocistic

1.5 Directions of Development 4

INTERACTIONDiplomacy, negotiations, sequential

Bargaining, responding to externally generated agendas, flows and scapes

1.6 Directions of Development 5

FIELD of ACTIONTerritory, borders, demarcation domestic/ foreign

Blurred boundaries; patchworks; new mapping/ cartography required; transnational, shifting identities

1.7 Directions of Development 6

TOPICS, ISSUES, CLEAVAGESTraditional in/security; distribution of power, of wealth; paths of development

„Cultural turn“; identity modules; secularism vs. fundamentalisms;new divides of digital education and access

2.1.1 Future scenarios 1:The coming anarchy

Values of outcome: Low stability, low cooperation

Many or more levels of political action, weakly interconnected.

Many players of different origin and potentials.

Huge variety in terms of resource potentials.

2.1.2 Anarchy...

Flows becoming ever more uncontrollableEuropean democracies are prone to an erosion of basic rules of liberal democraciesWeakening of legitimacy of representative organsLimited democratic authority of other actors.Survivability of Western-type societies is under question; no alternative visions, butfundamentalist opponents of secular, liberal societies

2.2.1 Future scenarios 2:Learning from experience

Value of outcomes: Increasing relative stability (medium to long term), increasing cooperation (multi-level)Many levels of political action, increasingly interconnected by institutions, norms, rules and values.Many players of different origin and potentials, following basic rules of the game.Organic mixture between different types of resources.

2.2.2 Learning - rules

Legitimacy of decision making bodies in a multilevel, multipolar world is hard to achieve. But still, political processes can be organized by rules.Patchwork-like configurations are even harder to legitimize. But payoffs between traditional, formal legitimacy, and participation of citizens on different levels depending on their contributions and qualifications, should be openly discussed.

2.3.1 Future scenarios 3:Selective stability

Value of outcome: Selective In/stability, Selective Cooperation

Some levels of political action, partly interconnected.

Many players of different origin and capabilities.

Certain variety in terms of resource potentials.

2.3.2 Selective stabilization

This scenario does not differ much from the scenario of a coming anarchy in its basic assumptions: The environment of European and other OECD countries and societies is becoming much more difficult and unpredictable.Yet the asumption here is that it may be possible to organize core spaces which are able to more or less preserve basic values and habits of liberal and plural societies – as a democratic gated and fortified communities.

2.3.3

Legitimacy problems may be easier to overcome in gated communities smaller than most nation states, like city regions.Democracy could be defined in such a way that participation is linked to certain qualifications and contributions of groups of citizens.For comunities bigger than states, legitimacy problems will be bigger, too. Actually, they seem unsurmountable.

2.4 How to rank...For audiences like this one, these outcomes may be hard to swallow.Still: Do we have alternatives? If not - do we have preferences?In terms of games, we may conclude thatlearning > gated communities > anarchy,so: if learning is not achievable, and attempts to implement it anyway beyond capabilities may produce anarchy, then...

2.5 How to copeDefending and propagating, or resisting/ denouncing globalization are pointless. There is not much use in praying for or fighting with changing weather.Concepts like governance and regulation are often related to designer phantasies.There may be new useful concepts: navigating, moderating and enabling.These may be concepts to operate in a new, complex environment.

How and where to find this ?

http://userpage.fu-berlin.de/~segbers

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