Is There a North America Craft Labor Cliff That Will Affect Project Performance?

Jennifer Sulak Brown, Barton Malow Company

Research Team 318

• Mitch Lee

• Chris Maxson

• James MacDonald

• Jennifer Sulak Brown

• Jon Tate

• Tim Taylor

• Paul Goodrum

• Mohammed Albattah

• Hossein Karimi

• Kevin Blair

• Scean Cherry

• Kimberly Corley

• Brandon Davis

• Marco Giron

• Steve Greene

• Daniel Groves

• Shaddy Hanna

• Dean Hamrick

• Don Jones

RT 318 Members

Learning Objectives

• Examine current demographic trends in the construction

workforces of the U.S. and Canada, to see how they affect

availability of qualified craft workers.

• Learn how craft availability affects a project’s performance.

• Learn how to mitigate the impact of potential craft availability

on project safety, cost, schedule, and quality performance.

What Motivates Craft Workers?Job Preferences Question, 1974 to 2012

SOURCE: National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago, General Social Survey on Craft Job Satisfaction

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

10

20

30

40

50

60

High Income Job Security Work Accomplishment

Pre

fere

nces

in t

he J

ob (

%)

CC: Jpatokal

What Is Causing the Cliff?

Research Team 318

RT-318 Research Process

Cliff Location– 13 Data Sources

– 2 million+ individual data points

Performance Impact– 97 completed projects

• RT-318 survey

• CII BM&M Database

Literature Review

Secondary Data Collection

RT-318 Survey

Demographic Data Analysis

CII BM&M Data

Database Construction

(Mann-Whitney)

C.R.A.F.T. Model

Development

Conclusions & Recommendations

Craft Shortage?

• Employment

• Gaps in Craft Supply and Dame

• Age

Craft Shortage

Aging Workface

Gaps in Craft

Supply and

Demand

Employment

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

5

10

15

20

25

United States

Electricians (U.S.)

Pipelayers, plumbers, pipefitters, and steam-fitters (U.S.)U

nem

ploy

men

t R

ate

(%)

U.S. SOURCE: Data Ferret – Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Great Recession

Actual Annual Unemployment Rate[United States - Craft workers only]

Natural Unemployment Rate

Future Labor Deficit/Surplus for Top Five Trades by Staffing Difficulty Regions Level– First Quarter 2018

SOURCE FOR ESTIMATED LABOR DEMAND: Construction Labor Market Analyzer (CLMA)

- Electricians- Instrumentation Technicians- Ironworkers / Welders- Pipefitters- Pipefitters / Combo Welders

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201436

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

Construction Industry All Other Industries

Aver

age

Age

Average AgeConstruction vs. All Other Industries

Average Aging Rate = 0.405 years/year

Average Aging Rate = 0.092 years/year

Average Aging Rate = 0.248 years/year

SOURCE: Data Ferret – Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

SOURCE: Current Employment Statistics (CES), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.INFLATION ADJUSTMENT SOURCE: Consumer Price Index – All Urban (CPI – U), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

Total Private

Construction

Ave

rage

Hou

rly I

ncom

e (2

014

$ A

mou

nt)

Real Wages ($2014 Amount – Inflation Adjusted)Construction vs. Total Private – Craft Trades Only

19.7%

42.0%

CC: Jpatokal

What Is on the Other Side of the Cliff?

Research Team 318

Historical Safety Performance of Projects Affected by Craft Labor Shortage

SOURCE: RT 318 Project Survey and CII Benchmarking and Metrics Database

Come to our Implementation Session

• Beyond safety, what are the impacts of the cliff on cost and schedule?

• More specific changes in demographics related to the following:– craft availability– wages and per diem– gaps in education and training

• Implementation resource for modeling any project risk due to craft availability

Moderator

Jon Tate (Zurich)

Panelists

Shaddy Hanna (ConocoPhillips)

Dean Hamrick (Fluor)

Daniel Groves (CURT)

Tim Taylor (Univ. of Kentucky)