is the euro failing?

7/31/2019 Is the Euro Failing?

1/49

_ZWJX

Z`g s`evzoekhbis ea z`g Kddszvho`z Zvgdzx dbj z`g gaagozs ea z`g imefdm goebekho

ovhshs eb |wfmho jgfz kwsz fg oebshjgvgj z`g jgohshqg odwsgs ea z`g gwve+ovhshs"

Z`g ovhshs `ds fggb gpdogvfdzgj fx kwmzh|mg |emhox adhmwvgs" Z`hs hs fdsgj eb z`g |vh+

kdox daaevjgj ze z`g |`hmese|`x ea goebekho dwszgvhzx- y`ho` hs vgs|ebshfmg aev z`g

djnwszkgbz |veivdkkgs hb Ivggog dbj \evzwidm- fwz dmse aev z`g zewi`gbhbi w|

ea z`g _zdfhmhzx dbj Iveyz` \doz dbj z`g ahsodm wbheb divggj hb Jgogkfgv 6


2/49


3/49

4

CMDW_ FW_O@ } H_ Z@G GW ADHMHB5

Oebzgbz

Hbzvejwozheb " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " ?

4" Z`g Kddszvho z Zvgdzx dbj Hzs _`evzoekhbis " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " :

4"4 Z`g Dsxkkgzvho Oebszvwozheb ea Goebekho dbj Kebgzdvx Wbheb (GKW(Ahvsz Jgagoz " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " 7

4"6 Be \emhzhodm Wbheb (_goebj Jgagoz " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " 7

4"? Dwszgvhzx fgaevg Iveyz` (Z`hvj Jgagoz " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " 7

4": Z`g Kdvcgz _zdzgs _xszgk (Aewvz` Jgagoz " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " 1

6" Jgfz Gqemwzheb hb z`g Oewbzvhgs ea z`g Gwve~ebg Gpzgvbdm dbj Hbzgvbdm Adozevs" 1

?" Oewvsg ea z`g Ovhshs avek z`g Fgihbbhbi ea 6 Kdx 6


4/49


5/49

?


Gwve|gs |emhoxkdcgvs `dqg ze wbjgvszdbj z`dz z`g se+

mwzhebs dje|zgj se adv dvg yvebi- z`dz z`gx jebz yevc

D sgvhews oekkhzkgbz ze goebekho iveyz` hb z`g Gw+

ve~ebg hs szhmm mdochbi" Hbszgdj- z`g ovhshs szdzgs dvg fghbi

|wbhs`gj yhz` `dvs` dwszgvhzx kgdswvgs"

(W_ goebekhsz Ndkgs Idmfvdhz` hb db hbzgvqhgy yhz` @db+

jgmsfmdzz- ? Jgogkfgv 6 z`g dsxkkgzvx hb goebekho |emhox-

z`g mdoc ea d Gwve|gdb agjgvdm szdzg- z`g |vhkdox ea dws+

zgvhzx |emhox dbj z`g sxszgk ea kdvcgz szdzgs" _gozheb 6

jgsovhfgs z`g gaagozs ea z`g imefdm goebekho ovhshs eb z`g

jgfzs ea GW szdzgs dbj z`g qdvhews |emhzhodm dbj goebekho

szvwozwvgs yhz`hb Gwve|gdb szdzgs y`ho` gp|mdhb z`ghv jha+

agvgbogs yhz` vgidvj ze jgfz jgqgme|kgbz"

_gozheb ? jgdms yhz` z`g oewvsg ea z`g ovhshs avek gdvmx

6


6/49

:


_gozheb : dbdmxsgs z`g dzzgk|zs ze semqg z`g ovhshs z`dz dvg

szhmm gbzdbimgj yhz`hb z`g Kddszvho`z meiho" Oebshjgvdfmg

s|dog hs ihqgb ze gpdkhbhbi z`g djnwszkgbz |veivdkkgs

dbj z`g goebekho dbj seohdm ovhsgs hb Ivggog- Hvgmdbj

dbj \evzwidm" Vgaevk ea z`g _zdfhmhzx \doz- z`g |mdb aev

|vgqgbzhbi gpogsshqg hkfdmdbogs- z`g |ve|esdm ea hbzgv+

ieqgvbkgbzdm Gwve|gdb goebekho ieqgvbkgbz dbj z`g

Gwve+\mws \doz dvg gqdmwdzgj ovhzhodmmx" Z`g sgozhebs kdhb

kgssdig hs z`dz z`g ovhshs odbbez fg eqgvoekg yhz`hb z`g

avdkgyevc ea z`g Kddszvho`z Zvgdzx"

Hb _gozheb 7 yg meec dz z`g jhaagvgbz szdvzhbi |ehbzs

aev |esshfmg semwzhebs fgxebj z`g Kddszvho`z meiho (sgg

@docgv 6 d Kdvs`dmm |mdb aev Gwve|g3 gwvefebjs3

vgiwmdzheb ea ydig- seohdm dbj zdp |emhox3 bgogssdvx vg+aevk ea z`g ahbdbohdm kdvcgzs3 dbj z`g sw|vdbdzhebdmhsd+

zheb ea goebekho |emhox" W| ze bey z`gvg `ds fggb be

o`dbog z`dz dbx ea z`gsg dmzgvbdzhqg |emhox d||vedo`gs

ze zdocmhbi z`g ovhshs yhmm fg hk|mgkgbzgj"

_gozheb 1 dbdmxsgs z`g ewzoekgs ea z`g Jgogkfgv 6


7/49

7


4"4 Z`g Dsxkkgzvho Oebszvwozhebea Goebekho dbj Kebgzdvx Wbheb (GKW

(Ahvsz Jgagoz

Z`g Kddszvho`z Zvgdzx |veqhjgs aev d oekkeb kebgzdvx

|emhox- hk|mgkgbzgj fx z`g GOF- fwz bez aev d oekkeb

goebekho dbj ahsodm |emhox oebjwozgj fx d Gwve|gdb

goebekho ieqgvbkgbz" Ze fg swvg- z`g kgkfgv szdzgs

goebekho dbj ahsodm |emhohgs dvg sw||esgj ze fg oeevjh+

bdzgj- fwz z`gvg `ds fggb be zvdbsagv ea goebekho dbj

ahsodm |emhox oek|gzgbogs ze z`g Gwve|gdb mgqgm" Z`hs

s`evzoekhbi hk|dhvs z`g GWs szggvhbi od|dfhmhzhgs hb goe+

bekho ovhsgs- fwz dmse hb z`g gqgbz ea wbfdmdbogj oxomhodm

jgqgme|kgbz eb z`g |dvz ea z`g kgkfgv szdzgs" Hb z`g

6


8/49

1


èygqgv- zejdx yg yewmj ahbj ewvsgmqgs hb gqgb jgg|gv

zvewfmg" Bgqgvz`gmgss- z`g jgfzs y`ho` ygvg db hbgqhzdfmg

vgswmz ea |emhzhodm hbzgvqgbzheb dvg jgkebhsgj" Z`g jgfz+

evs dvg ze fmdkg dbj z`ghv jgfzs `dqg ze fg vgjwogj

oekg y`dz kdx" Hb z`g gwve+ovhshs z`hs z`hbchbi `ds mgj

ze z`g hk|eshzheb ea szvhoz oebjhzhebs oebogvbhbi jgfz

vgjwozheb eb z`g sw||evz medbs aev Ivggog- Hvgmdbj dbj

\evzwidm" QDZ hbovgdsgs- |wfmho sgozev vgjwbjdbohgs- owzs

hb ydigs dbj seohdm fgbgahzs dbj hbovgdsgs hb |gbshebdfmg

dig dvg dkebi z`g hbszvwkgbzs ea z`hs |emhox" Z`g qhozhks

ea z`g ovhshs bey dmse `dqg ze fgdv z`g kdhb fwvjgb ea

oe|hbi yhz` |wfmho jgfz" Z`hs |emhox `ds kgz yhz` fvedj

d||veqdm gqgb dkebi _eohdm Jgkeovdzs hb Gwve|g" Fwz

z`hs hs bez z`g ydx ze semqg z`g |vefmgks" Eb z`g oeb+

zvdvx> goebekho iveyz` `ds fggb oècgj eaa hb z`gsgoewbzvhgs fx z`ghv sèvz+zgvk dbj sèvz+shi`zgj oebsemh+

jdzheb |emhohgs dbj z`g jgfz vdzhes oebzhbwg ze omhkf"

Fwz hz hs bez nwsz hb z`g z`vgg dfeqgkgbzhebgj szdzgs z`dz

z`hs |emhox d||vedo` hs fghbi |wvswgj> dmm oewbzvhgs yèsg

jgfz fwvjgb hs oebshjgvgj ze fg zee hi` dvg fghbi aevogj

fx z`g ahbdbohdm kdvcgzs- z`g Gwve|gdb Oekkhssheb dbj

z`g Oewbohm ze kdcg awvz`gv owzs" Gpdk|mgs hbomwjg _|dhb-

Hzdmx dbj- kevg vgogbzmx- Avdbog" Be yebjgv Gwve|g ahbjs

hzsgma khvgj hb vgogssheb dz z`g gbj ea 6 9< |gv ogbz ea GW szdzgs zvdjg

hs yhz` ebg dbez`gv dbj z`ws idhbs dbj messgs odbogm gdo`

ez`gv ewz hb d ~gve+swk idkg"

Z`g |emhox adhmwvg hb z`g gwve+ovhshs ze fg jgkebszvdzgj

hb z`g vgsz ea z`hs szwjx odb hb mdvig |dvz fg zvdogj fdoc

ze |emhzhohdbs oebzhbwgj gbzdbimgkgbz hb z`g |vgkhsgs

ea z`g Kddszvho`z Zvgdzx" Ha z`gsg aewv jgagozs ea z`g Gw+

ve|gdb hbzgivdzheb |veogss dvg bez eqgvoekg seeb Gw+

ve|gdb wbhahodzheb yhmm aewbjgv" Kddszvho`z Gwve|g hs d

sgma+jgszvwozhqg Gwve|g"

6" Jgfz Gqemwzheb hb z`g Oewbzvhgs ea z`gGwve~ebg Gpzgvbdm dbj Hbzgvbdm Adozevs

Aev d mebi zhkg z`g jgagozs ea z`g Kddszvho`z Zvgdzx ygvg

bez jhvgozmx qhshfmg- fwz fgbgdz` z`g swvadog z`ghv gaagozs

ygvg qhvwmgbz" Fwz ebmx yhz` z`g djqgbz ea z`g imefdm

goebekho ovhshs dbj z`g gwve+ovhshs jhj z`g shibhahodbog ea

jgagozhqg oebszvwozheb oekg ze z`g aevg" Hb evjgv ze wb+

jgvszdbj z`g oewvsg ea z`g jgfz ovhshs dazgv z`g ewzfvgdc

ea z`g imefdm goebekho ovhshs dbj ze fgzzgv oek|vg`gbj

z`g jhaagvgbogs hb zgvks ea jgfz gqemwzheb fgzyggb z`g


9/49

9


gwve oewbzvhgs yg bggj ze meec dz z`g mdzzgvs hbzgvbdm

goebekho szvwozwvgs fgaevg z`g ovhshs szvwoc" Z`gsg jhaagv+

gbogs- zee- ygvg qhvwmgbz fgbgdz` z`g swvadog hb z`g vwb+

w| ze z`g ovhshs dbj z`ghv awmm hk|evzdbog fgodkg omgdv

ebmx y`gb hz ahbdmmx `hz"

Hz hs hbzgvgszhbi ze bezg avek z`g jgqgme|kgbz ea |wf+

mho jgfz vdzhes w| ze 6


10/49

0


Zdfmg 4> Jgfz vdzhe jgqgme|kgbz avek 6


11/49

8


Zdfmg 6> O`dbigs hb jgfz vdzhes avek 6


12/49

4 yevcaevog vgjwozheb hb z`g |wf+

mho sgozev- ydig owzs hb z`g |wfmho sgozev- meygv zvdbsagv

|dxkgbzs ze |wfmho oek|dbhgs- owzs hb ygmadvg fgbgahzs

(sws|gbsheb ea |gbsheb djnwszkgbz vwmgs- avgg~hbi ea |gb+

shebs- gp|dbsheb ea kgdbs+zgszhbi aev hboekg sw||evz-

vgjwozheb ea wbgk|mexkgbz fgbgahz dbj zhi`zgv oebzvem

eb s|gbjhbi hb z`g `gdmz` odvg sgozev" Z`g ahsodm kgds+

wvgs dvg oek|mgkgbzgj fx oesz vgjwozheb |veivdkkgs hb

szdzg+eybgj oek|dbhgs- d vgjwozheb hb z`g gpzgbshqg wsg

ea |wfmho|vhqdzg |dvzbgvs`h|s (\\\- y`ho` |wz d `gdqx

fwvjgb eb z`g fwjigz- dbj szg||gj w| |vhqdzhsdzheb ea

d bwkfgv ea |wfmho oek|dbhgs hb z`g zvdbs|evz- gbgvix-

zgmgoekkwbhodzhebs dbj hbswvdbog sgozevs"

Hb evjgv ze feesz z`g \evzwiwgsg goebekxs iveyz` |e+

zgbzhdm z`g djnwszkgbz |veivdkkg hs vgmxhbi eb d bwkfgv

ea goebekho dbj |emhox vgaevks (Gwve|gdb Oekkhssheb

6 6?aa" Z`gsg vdbig avek nwjhohdm vgaevk- vgaevk ea

oek|gzhzheb mdy dbj gb`dbohbi oek|gzhzheb hb qdvhews

cgx sgozevs (gbgvix- zvdbs|evz dbj zgmgoekkwbhodzhebs

ze mdfewv kdvcgz vgaevks" Hb |dvzhowmdv- z`g jwvdzheb dbj

mgqgm ea wbgk|mexkgbz fgbgahz dvg ze fg vgjwogj shi+

bhahodbzmx dbj |vezgozheb aev |gvkdbgbz gk|mexggs mees+

gbgj" Hb evjgv ze kdcg hz gdshgv ze ahvg |ge|mg dbj ze

feesz mdfewv kefhmhzx sgqgvdbog |dxkgbz dvvdbigkgbzs

dvg ze fg vgaevkgj dbj z`g oebjhzhebs aev ahpgj+zgvk

yevcgvs djnwszgj"

Fdsgj eb d Zvehcd khssheb hb Dwiwsz 6


31/49

68


avek mey+ydig oewbzvhgs" _|gbjhbi eb vgsgdvo` dbj jg+

qgme|kgbz dbj eb gjwodzheb dbj zvdhbhbi kwsz z`gvgaevg

fg szg||gj w|" Ebmx hb z`dz ydx odb \evzwidms |vejwozhq+

hzx fg hbovgdsgj shibhahodbzmx- z`g zgo`bemeix oebzgbz ea

zvdjdfmg ieejs gb`dbogj dbj z`g goebekxs iveyz` |e+

zgbzhdm hk|veqgj" Z`g djnwszkgbz |veivdkkg `ds bez`+

hbi ze sdx dfewz z`hs cgx hsswg> z`g mdvig swks vgtwhvgj

ze feesz z`g oewbzvxs V!J dbj gjwodzhebdm od|dohzhgs

shk|mx odbbez fg stwdvgj yhz` d s`evz+shi`zgj fwjigz

oebsemhjdzheb |emhox"

:"6 Vgaevk ea z`g _zdfhmhzx dbj Iveyz` \doz

Hb z`g oewvsg ea z`g 6


32/49

? z`g Gwve|gdb Oekkhssheb yewmj yevc ewz

goebekho |emhox iwhjgmhbgs- hbomwjhbi z`g gszdfmhs`kgbz

ea fgbo`kdvc ahiwvgs aev z`g kgkfgv szdzgs ogbzvdm

fwjigzs" Z`gsg iwhjgmhbgs yewmj `dqg ze fg doog|zgj

fx z`g Oewbohm ea z`g Gwve|gdb Wbheb hb z`g aevk ea z`g

Goebekho dbj Ahbdbohdm Daadhvs Oewbohm (Goeahb fx d jew+


42/49

: Jv" Fnvb @docgv- fnegvb"`docgvLags"jg3 gjhzevhdm dsshszdbog> Bevd Bgxg- bevd"bgxgLags"jg

is the euro failing?

Documents