Registered in Kenya (2003) and operating in the Western Indian Ocean region.

A knowledge organization (non-profit).

Focus on coral reefs:- Climate change impacts (coral bleaching)- Small scale/artisanal fisheries- Managing protected areas and fisheries for

sustainability (SDG 14.2, 14.5, Aichi Target 10)- Regional integration and connectivity (Integrated

Ocean Management, Marine Spatial Planning)

Is the Blue Economy green enough? Kenya example

David Obura (PhD)

www.cordioea.net

dobura@cordioea.net

Recent work – Blue Economy focus

• WIO Ocean Economy report, 2017 (with WWF and BCG)• Launch event in Kenya on 31 May 2017, New Stanley

Hotel, Nairobi.

• Ocean health in the blue economy. In: A Handbook on the Blue Economy in the Indian Ocean Region - (IORA). In press.

Northern Mozambique Channel publications:• The Northern Mozambique Channel – a capitals approach to a

Blue Economy future. IN: Handbook on the Economics and Management for Sustainable Oceans. Editors: Lisa Emelia Svansson, Paulo A.L.D. Nunes, Pushpam Kumar and Anil Markandya. Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing (UK).

• The Northern Mozambique Channel. In: World Seas: an Environmental Valuation, Volume II: The Indian Ocean to the Pacific, Second Edition. Editor: Charles Sheppard. Elsevier.

Support to WIO Regional Voluntary Commitments (2017-18), including attendance at UN Oceans Conference, June 2017

Scenarios for the Northern Mozambique Channel

A total asset base of Bn$ 333 …

… delivers annual income of Bn$ 20.8

(Gross Marine Product – GMP)

www.ocean.panda.orgwww.cordioea.net/wio-ocean-economy/

If it were a country, the WIO would have the 4th largest GDP

GMP & GDP

Fisheries, ocean habitats and the

coastline are broadly equivalent

in asset values

Living asset base

70% and more of ocean income comes from adjacent coastlines

Tourism is by far the largest ocean sector in terms of annual value

Fisheries comprise 1.8% of Kenya’s ocean income

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Annual productivity – GMP and Kenya

Kenya’s ocean economyPolicy basis• “seventh sector” to drive the achievement of

Vision 2030 development agenda• African Union Agenda 2063, Africa Integrated

Marine Strategy 2050• Linkages with Sustainable Development Goals• Department of Fisheries and Blue Economy in

the Ministry of Agriculture

Territorial dispute with Somalia over EEZ

Blue Economy working group/task force• Established in 2014, under Office of the President• Blue Economy Implementation Committee,

January 2017• Chaired by Chief of Defence Forces, General

Samson Mwathethe

Kenya’s ocean economy BLUE ECONOMY SECTOR PLANIllustrative components

Development of Blue Economy Master Plan• Integrated National Maritime Policy• Development of a National Maritime Spatial

Plan

Human Resource Development

Fisheries and Aquaculture

Maritime Transport

Development and management of Blue Economy database

Kenya Marine Fisheries and Socio-Economic Development Project (KMFSED)

Overall, 5-year budget of Bn$ 1.3

BLUE ECONOMY PRIORITIES

1) Maritime issues - security and shipping• Under African Union/AIMS 2050• IMO/UNCLOS• Regional Economic Communities –

EAC, COMESA

2) Fisheries and aquaculture

3) Mining and extractives (fossil fuels)

Kenya’s ocean economy – GMP & GDP

In 2015, ocean economy: $B 2.4of $Bill 67.3 (GDP) [4%]

5th large ocean economy (GMP)

2nd largest national economy (GDP)

In 2015, ocean economy: $B 2.4of $Bill 67.3 (GDP) [4%]

Kenya’s ocean economy – GMP & GDP

The ocean economy is so much broader than fisheries and maritime trade.

Multi-sectoral planning is essential to adequately capture all the values, and protect/build them up – the essential role of Marine Spatial Planning in Ocean Economy planning

Adjacent benefits

Direct services

Direct output

The WIO Ocean Economy report method calculated asset values based on NPV, across the region.

To apportion this by country, can apply two approaches:- proportionate by GDP- proportionate by GMP

Kenya’s ocean economy – Asset values

Dividing the WIO’s Bn$ 333 assets by:

Kenya’s ocean economy – Asset values

GMP gives Kenya Bn$ 38 in ocean assets

GDP gives Kenya Bn$ 76 in ocean assets

Putting this in context … Kenya’s current megaprojects as infrastructure assets, presented as a foundation for future development:

Kenya’s ocean economy – Asset values

Bn $LAPPSET 29 SGR (Railway) 4 Amu coal plant 2Turkana wind farm 0.75TOTAL 35.3

Ocean assetsBy GMP 38By GDP 76

Living ocean assets- Are equal in value or greater than the major

development assets being considered- They exist already, needing wise management and

use, rather than risky/uncertain construction

EXISTING GOVERNMENT POLICY

• Kenya’s ocean economy is a national priority for long term development (Vision 2030, AIMS 2050)

• Maritime trade and fisheries are key priorities and immediate opportunities in national agenda setting process

Kenya’s ocean economy – take-home messages• Annual output from living ocean resources is currently

equivalent to 4% of GDP – this can grow in amount and proportion.

• Living assets for Kenya’s ocean economy are equivalent to, or worth more than, the largest infrastructure megaprojects – and they are already in place

• 70% and more of annual income comes from adjacent coastlines• Tourism is by far the largest ocean sector in terms of

annual value• Fisheries comprise 1.8% of Kenya’s ocean income

• Diversification is key – to ensure the best is made of different/all ocean assets, sustainably. But this requires complex spatial and inter-sectoral planning, to maximize/diversify benefit, minimize losses – Marine Spatial Planning