is the asean single aviation market truly going to be single? dr. alan khee-jin tan professor of...

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IS THE ASEAN SINGLE AVIATION MARKET TRULY GOING TO BE SINGLE? Dr. Alan Khee-Jin Tan Professor of Aviation Law Faculty of Law, National University of Singapore

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IS THE ASEAN SINGLE AVIATION MARKET TRULY GOING TO BE SINGLE?

Dr. Alan Khee-Jin Tan

Professor of Aviation LawFaculty of Law, National University of Singapore

Market Opportunities after Open Skies• Intra-ASEAN International Markets up to 2000 nm [Source: Embraer, 2014]

b 31-50

c 51-80

d 81-100

e 101-130

f 131-150

g 151-170

h 171-200

i >200

45

17

5

24

27

12

13

6

3

4

58

NoYes

Number of Markets

Pass

enge

r Dai

ly E

ach

Way

Market Served?

Kota-Kinabalu

Kuala Namu

Singapore

JakartaSurabaya

Denpesar

Kuching

Ho Chi Minh

Bangkok

Yangon

Phuket

ASEAN SINGLE AVIATION MARKET 3rd/4th Freedom: Capital to Capital – note Jakarta now open!

Indonesia – Liberalization BenefitsSource: CARI Lifting the Barriers Report, 2013

Additional GDP 7 trillion Rupiah (US$679 million)[6% increase from 2010 levels]

Additional jobs created 32,000[7% increase from 2010 levels]

Decrease in real air fares 2.5% per annum

Additional international passenger traffic attributable to ASEAN Open Skies

16.3 million per year by 2025[24.5% of total additional international

traffic over 2010 levels]

Additional international air freight traffic attributable to ASEAN Open Skies

290,000 tonnes per year by 2025[21.6% of total additional international air

freight traffic over 2010 levels]

3rd/4th Freedom: Any Home Point to Another Point, including non-capitals; Indonesia and Laos still not parties

5th Freedoms: open too. BUT what if ..… (!)

KUL

RGN

SIN

What’s Missing (for post-2015):

7th freedom?

Cabotage/Domestic/8th/9th? – sensitive!

Community Carrier without restrictions

Technical harmonization? Start with harmonized (need not be identical) standards and mutual recognition. E.g. pilot and crew certification, safety checks and enforcement

ASEAN Airlines with 7th Freedom and Multiple Bases

ASEAN-China: Unlimited 3rd/4th to & from China; plus some 5ths

Compare: Chinese Airlines’ Network to ASEAN!!

ASEAN Airlines’ IDEAL Network to China with 7th Freedom

ASEAN-China 5th Freedoms. Meaningless with secondary cities only

LPQ

CNXDAD

XMN

LOP

SIN

BWN

BKI

CBU

MDL

KOS

URC

FOCKMG

HHAKWL

NNG

CKG

CTU

XIY CGO

What’s Missing Again (for post-2015):

7th freedom?

Cabotage/Domestic/8th/9th? - sensitive

Community Carrier without restrictions

Technical harmonization? Pilot and crew certification, safety checks and enforcement