Is the Amazonian Rainforest a Sitting Duck for Climate Change? A.D. Nobre, INPA II Conferencia Regional sobre Mudanas Globais: Amrica do Sul Mesa Redonda Modelagem do Clima e Evoluo dos Ecossistemas 6-10 novembro 2005, So Paulo Diagram source: internet material Surface heating in the equatorial zone produces intense evaporation and consequent upwelling of air Diagram source: internet material Corresponding and connected movement produces subsidence of air on mid-latitudes Diagram source: internet material The connection of these vertical movements, lead to Hadley circulation giraffeselephant Paleoclimates and Vegetation: Proxies in the Mega fauna Wildebeest in the Serengeti In the Americas, the bison of the North never made the cross to the South Paleoclimates evidences of continued rainfall (Baker et al 2001) Photo Credit Antonio D Nobre Faunal evidences of less extensive savannas in South America (Vivo & Carmignotto 2004 ) Biological evidences of connection between Atlantic and Amazon forests (Costa 2003 ) Orbital and cosmic effects on climate THE (OBLIVIOUS) HUMAN INTERFERENCE Photo Credit Ricardo Oliveira RAINFALL MECHANISM IN A DISTURBED RAINFOREST DIRTY ATMOSPHERE based on results of ABRACOS project 2000 and LBA: Andrea et al. Science,; others Lets assume for now that Global Change will not strike here People destroy the Garden of Eden What happens then? Photo Credit Andrea, Artaxo et al. LBA Smocc Experiment Diagram by Antonio D Nobre RAINFALL MECHANISM IN A DISTURBED RAINFOREST DIRTY ATMOSPHERE based on results of ABRACOS project 2000 and LBA: Andrea et al. Science,; others Soot Dust Diagram by Antonio D Nobre Photo Credit Andrea, Artaxo et al. LBA Smocc Experiment RAINFALL MECHANISM IN A DISTURBED RAINFOREST DIRTY ATMOSPHERE COLD Towering Clouds based on results of ABRACOS project 2000 and LBA: Andrea et al. Science,; others Soot Dust Diagram by Antonio D Nobre Smoky Dissipative Clouds Suppression of Rainfall Dry Season or Drought 10/August/05 Modis Terra 18/Septembre/05 Modis Aqua Forest Fire 27Set05 Perto de Acrelndia, border with BoliviaSlide by F.Brown & C. Salimon RAINFALL MECHANISM IN A DISTURBED RAINFOREST DIRTY ATMOSPHERE COLD Towering Clouds Destructive Thunderstorms based on results of ABRACOS project 2000 and LBA: Andrea et al. Science,; others Soot Dust Diagram by Antonio D Nobre Wetter DISRUPTING THE INLAND TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE 2005 Amazonian Drought