Is Russia an Emerging Power?

S. Neil MacFarlane

What Characterizes an Emerging Power?

“The notion of ‘emerging power’ is partly informed by a theoretical assumption that the international behavior of states is determined by their place in the international system.” (MacFarlane)

Hegemonic Power, Great Powers, Middle Powers, Small States.

Emergent powers are distinctive because their power is dynamic; their position is changing as their power grows and, along with it, their capacity to shape outcomes. They carry some potential for systemic revisionism, a challenge to the hierarchy of the system in which they exist (Robert Gilpin).

MacFarlane discusses: Domestic and international considerations Immediate geographical influence Hard and Soft power

Does Russia Fit The Bill?

“The notion of emergence suggests a state that is growing dynamically and undergoing a transformation; a state whose rising power causes it to question its established place in the system and to assert itself more ambitiously in international politics” (MacFarlane).

The 1990’s were not so much a period of emergence as it was of confusion, retrenchment and decline. Russia seemed to be entering a period of humiliation and a lack of regard from other power nations.

Military bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgastan by the US.

Ignored on the issue of NATO enlargement into former Soviet space

Foreign Policy Incoherence

Gorbachevian Liberalism

Eurasianism/multipolarity

Regional power nationalism

Handling of Foreign Matters

Ex: Mid-90s Drilling in the Caspian Basin

“It was experiencing a profound crisis in its economy, politics, legal system, society, health, demographics,

foreign policy and identity, creating an equally profound demoralization among its citizens”

(MacFarlane).

Putin Presidency

Regenerating the economy and balancing the books

Consolidating executive control over the state and restoring its capacity to maintain order

Restoring the role of the state in the economy; limiting influence of oligarchical circles (Yeltsin)

Sorting the relationship between the executive and the legislature

Reasserting central control of regional authorities

Preventing the loss of further territory or the spread of insurgency in Chechnya and N. Caucasus

Contemporary Russian Foreign Policy

Constitution of the Russian Federation “emphasized the pre-eminence of the executive in the formation of foreign policy” (MacFarlane).

Directly addresses Russia’s weaknesses both internally and in comparison to other great powers (notably the US)

Contrasts heavily with other emerging powers (India and China), which combine dynamic growth with increasing assertiveness in foreign affairs.

Threats to Russia

“Russia shall seek to achieve a multi-polar system of international relations”, is according to the 2000 Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation.

Unipolarity and American unilateralism is seen as a major threat to Russia.

The eastward enlargement of NATO a threat to Russia.

Addressing the UN Charter’s defense of domestic jurisdiction and linking sovereign rights with global standards of human rights.

Castigating Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe (OSCE) for not observing basic Helsinki principles like non-intervention in internal affairs and the respect for sovereignty of nations.

US-Russia Relations: Int’l Affairs

Siding with the US on major issues in respect to US policy. Declaring solidarity with the US after 9/11

Allowing US military base construction in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to support combat operations.

Benefits for Russia:

• Diffusing international criticism and pressure of resolution in Chechnya with conflation of Chechen Second War with the War on Terror.

• 2002 recognition from the US as a market economy and embarked on discussions of energy.

• Accession to WTO and full membership of the G8 in 2002, with favored potential to hold the 2006 G8 Summit.

US-Russia Relations: Domestic Affairs

Where the position of the US differs from Russia’s view on

necessary addresses to domestic affairs, the US is ignored.

The Yukos Affair

Demanding exit of OSCE and the Border Monitoring Mission in Georgia in 2004-2005 despite American policy.

Granting citizenship to Georgian residents in secessionist regions of Georgia.

Weapon sales to China and weapons technology transfers to Iran.

US-Russia Relations: Ducking

“Consistent with an evolving pattern of Russian behavior in cases

where it perceived interest diverge from those of the united states,

but where it nonetheless seeks to avoid direct confrontation”

(MacFarlane).

Opposed to use of force in Iraq in 2003. However, Russia allowed

France and Germany to lead the opposition in order to remain in

hegemonic good graces.

Uzbekistan calls into question the status of US bases in their

region due to human rights accusations.

Russia and the EU Russia as part of Europe and the consistent need for Europe to emerge

as a concentration of power. Where does this sit with the US?

Russian issues with the EU: Kaliningrad Exclave/Rejection of Partnership Cooperation Agreement Political transitions in Georgia (‘03) and Ukraine (’04) EU has a hard time with the conflation of Chechen War to War on

Terror. EU enlargement (Baltic states, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary).

Russia and China Similar Views

Unhappiness with the current configuration of the international system.

Expressed a preference for multipolar world order.

Opposed on issues of dilution of sovereignty, non-intervention and America’s withdraw from the ABM Treaty.

Concern over radical Islamism threat

Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Concern of American influence in

Central Asia.

Economic agenda of cooperation

China seen as a major customer

for military hardware and energy consumption.

Sino-Russian Limitations

Russia could potentially sever ties with the US if any further developments occur with China.

China is seen as a major threat of influence over Siberia and Far East Asia territory.

By supplying military force, Russia could be taking a political risk in allowing China to become a major military power in Asia.

Overall: Do you see China as a friend to support of a major threat to be concerned about?

And The Final Analysis is…“Russia is not an emerging power in the

conventional sense.”Foreign policy dominated by the effort to reverse

the decline of the 80’s and 90’s.Regional policy to restore influence over former

Soviet states.

“Holding Game”Russia has established foreign policy to prevent

loss and to sustain and promote future growth in the hopes of re-emerging as a great world power.