is government killing god? public welfare and religious unaffiliation in the united states john...
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I. Existential Insecurity – Norris and Inglehart (2004) argue A. Countries with high mortality, high unemployment, etc. experience high existential insecurity and turn to religion for security. B. People in countries with high levels of social welfare are more existentially secure and have lower rates of religiosity II. Support from Gill and Lundsgaarde (2004) A. They address Uruguay puzzle – unusually low religiosity in South American country B. Uruguay has unusually high social welfare III. Stinespring and Cragun test existential insecurity theory in U.S. regions by regressing unaffiliation against welfare. Controls include: 1. Unemployment 2. % of population > Income inequality 4. Educational Levels/expenditures 5. Average/median income per capitaTRANSCRIPT
Is Government Killing God? Public Welfare
and Religious Unaffiliation in the United
States John Stinespring (University of Tampa)
The MacroJournals Conference on Business and Social Science: December 28, 2015
Increasing Rate of Religious Unaffiliation in U.S.1973– 6.4%1991 – 6.7%2002– 13.8%2008 – 16.5%2012 – 19.7%(General Social Survey)
1973
1975
1977
1980
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00% % of US Population Unaffiliated
Focus of Our Research Is on Demand
I. Existential Insecurity – Norris and Inglehart (2004) argue A. Countries with high mortality, high unemployment, etc. experience high
existential insecurity and turn to religion for security. B. People in countries with high levels of social welfare are more
existentially secure and have lower rates of religiosity
II. Support from Gill and Lundsgaarde (2004) A. They address Uruguay puzzle – unusually low religiosity in South
American countryB. Uruguay has unusually high social welfare
III. Stinespring and Cragun test existential insecurity theory in U.S. regions by regressing unaffiliation against welfare. Controls include:
1. Unemployment2. % of population > 653. Income inequality4. Educational Levels/expenditures5. Average/median income per capita
Hypothesis
Does higher government welfare lead to lower religiosity in US?
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
4.0
4.4
4.8
5.2
5.6
6.0
6.4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
76 77 78 80 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 93 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Public Welfare Per CapitaUnaffil iation
U.S. Public Welfare and Unaffiliation 1976-2012
Rea
l Wel
fare
Per
Cap
ita
Per
cent
age
of P
opul
atio
n U
naffi
liate
d
Religion’s provision of social services in the U.S. is Large
Over 70 million Americans receive services from faith-based organizations annually. Recent surveys show that approximately 60 percent of all congregations offer food pantries, 52% offer clothing closets and 41% sponsored a soup kitchen (Johnson et al., 2002).
Earlier FindingsGill and Lundsgaarde (2004) – Each $1 of Welfare
expenditures per GDP leads to a 0.5% decrease in affiliation in multiple-country study.
Hungerman (2005) – 1996 Welfare Reform Act decreased state welfare expenditures and led to an increase in Presbyterian congregations. Crowding out effect was between 20-38 cents per dollar of government spending.
Gruber and Hungerman (2007) – increase in government welfare in Great Depression decreased religious giving.
Scheve and Stasavage (2005) – higher religious attendance leads to lower social welfare spending in Western countries.
Our FindingsA 1 % increase in per capita public welfare expenditures
leads to a 0.78 to 1.6 % increase in unaffiliation
(after controlling for variables encompassing alternativetheories of religious affiliation)
MethodologyData was organized in to 9 U.S. regions for 1976-
2012 period. Dummy variable for each region to allow for region-specific differences.
Explanatory variables in inflation-adjusted per capita terms
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
1976
1977
1978
1980
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1993
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
ENCentral ESCentral MidAtlantaMountain NewEngland PacificSAtlantic WNCentral WSCentral
Public Welfare Per Capita
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
COMBOWELFARE
UN
AFFI
LIAT
ION
4
8
12
16
20
24
1 2 3 4 5 6
COMBOWELFARE
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
ENCentral
0
4
8
12
16
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
COMBOWELFARE
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
ESCentral
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
COMBOWELFARE
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
MidAtlantic
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1 2 3 4 5
COMBOWELFARE
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
Mountain
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
COMBOWELFARE
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
NewEngland
8
12
16
20
24
28
1 2 3 4 5 6
COMBOWELFARE
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
Pacific
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
COMBOWELFARE
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
SAtlantic
0
4
8
12
16
20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
COMBOWELFARE
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
WNCentral
0
4
8
12
16
20
0 1 2 3 4 5
COMBOWELFARE
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
WSCentral
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
RGDPPOP
UN
AFFI
LIAT
ION
4
8
12
16
20
24
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
RGDPPOP
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
ENCentral
0
4
8
12
16
15,000 25,000 35,000
RGDPPOP
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
ESCentral
0
5
10
15
20
25
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
RGDPPOP
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
MidAtlanta
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
20,000 28,000 36,000 44,000
RGDPPOP
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
Mountain
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
RGDPPOP
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
NewEngland
8
12
16
20
24
28
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
RGDPPOP
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
Pacific
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
20,000 28,000 36,000 44,000
RGDPPOP
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
SAtlantic
0
4
8
12
16
20
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
RGDPPOP
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
WNCentral
0
4
8
12
16
20
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
RGDPPOP
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
WSCentral
Table 1B: Simple Pairwise Correlations for Level Variables
UNAFFILRWELPOP
RFEDTRANS
COMBOWELFAR
RHHPOP
RFEDMED
COMBOHEALTH
TOTALWELFAR UN
RGDPPOP
PERC65UP GINI
PERCBACHPLUS
UNAFFIL 1.00000
0 0.64860
4 0.583272 0.616202 0.441874 0.502594 0.581810 0.604614 -0.197938 0.69822
2 0.13725
6 0.5188
68 0.667467
RWELFARPOP
0.648604
1.000000 0.896246 0.948472 0.784700 0.895229 0.915046 0.938462 -0.296245
0.888999
0.622222
0.733942 0.709545
RFEDTRANS
0.583272
0.896246 1.000000 0.990426 0.896626 0.981318 0.987123 0.991887 -0.202007
0.884320
0.608856
0.875004 0.693543
COMBOWELFAR
0.616202
0.948472 0.990426 1.000000 0.882127 0.979895 0.986737 0.997742 -0.229652
0.904738
0.626828
0.849795 0.715308
RHHPOP
0.441874
0.784700 0.896626 0.882127 1.000000 0.915940 0.915306 0.898554 -0.198297
0.766599
0.497356
0.831513 0.406866
RFEDMED
0.502594
0.895229 0.981318 0.979895 0.915940 1.000000 0.998214 0.991678 -0.517772
0.901662
0.541064
0.878350 0.687699
COMBOHEALTH
0.581810
0.915046 0.987123 0.986737 0.915306 0.998214 1.000000 0.995356 -0.284832
0.912923
0.602348
0.894275 0.709149
TOTALWELFAR
0.604614
0.938462 0.991887 0.997742 0.898554 0.991678 0.995356 1.000000 -0.252736
0.911087
0.617449
0.870601 0.714701
LUN-
0.197938-
0.296245 -0.202007 -0.229652 -0.198297 -0.517772 -0.284832 -0.252736 1.000000-
0.389059-
0.308184
-0.34029
9 -0.221180RGDPPOP
0.698222
0.888999 0.884320 0.904738 0.766599 0.901662 0.912923 0.911087 -0.389059
1.000000
0.467099
0.838112 0.879395
PERC65UP
0.137256
0.622222 0.608856 0.626828 0.497356 0.541064 0.602348 0.617449 -0.308184
0.467099
1.000000
0.396553 0.346798
GINI 0.51886
8 0.73394
2 0.875004 0.849795 0.831513 0.878350 0.894275 0.870601 -0.340299 0.83811
2 0.39655
3 1.0000
00 0.594216PERCBACHPLUS
0.667467
0.709545 0.693543 0.715308 0.406866 0.687699 0.709149 0.714701 -0.221180
0.879395
0.346798
0.594216 1.000000
Table 3aREGRESSION RESULTS
Dependent Variable: Unaffiliation
I II III IV V VI Intercept 2.035
*** (***)3.170
*** (***)24.028
***(***)
28.688***(***)
22.337***
(***)
-8.704***
(***)Federal, State, & Local
Public Welfare3.029
*** (***)3.011
***(***)
3.623***(***)
9.495***
(***)
1.123***(*)
Regional Unemployment -0.169*
(***)
-0.396***
(***)
-0.694***
(***)
0.133
Regional Population Percentage 65 and up
-1.679***
(***)
-1.837***
(***)
-1.483***
(***)
Regional Gini -0.083
-0.335***(**)
Federal, State, & Local Public Health, Hospital,
and Medical Expenditures
-7.149***
(***)
RGDP per capital in ($1000s)
0.0006***
(***)
Population Percentage with Bachelor’s Degree
or Higher
0.494***(**)
Real Education Expenditures per capita
4.34***(**)
Adjusted R2 0.63 0.63 0.70 0.65 0.74 0.54Durbin-Watson 0.81 0.81 0.95 0.98 1.09 0.89
Jarque-Bera (prob) 0.43 0.44 0.18 0.66 0.47 0.37Number of Obs. 198 198 198 198 198 108
* Significant at the 10% level, ** Significant at the 5% level, *** Significant at the 1% level. All standard errors are White’s diagonal corrected; White’s period-corrected in parentheses.
* Significant at the 10% level, ** Significant at the 5% level, *** Significant at the 1% level. All standard errors are White’s diagonal corrected; White’s period-corrected in parentheses.
Table 3CGLS REGRESSION RESULTS FOR REGIONAL FIXED EFFECTS
Dependent Variable: Unaffiliation I II III IV V VI VIII IX
Intercept 3.703*** (***)
5.069*** (***)
14.321***(**)
18.049***(***)
14.489***(*)
-4.181**
(**)
0.172
13.222*
Federal, State, & Local Public Welfare
2.780*** (***)
2.745***
(***)
3.120***(***)
2.127*
(***)
1.956***
(***)
1.591**
(**)
2.482***(**)
Regional Unemployment
-0.199**
(***)
-0.239**
(***)
-0.273**
(***)
-0.015
-0.117
-0.290
Regional Population Percentage 65 and up
-0.820***(*)
-0.369
-0.515*
-0.940**
Regional Gini -0.166*
(**)
-0.246**
(***)
Federal, State, & Local Public Health, Hospital,
and Medical Expenditures
1.628
(**)
RGDP per capital in ($1000s)
0.0003***
(***)
Population Percentage with Bachelor’s Degree
or Higher
0.062
-0.028
0.017
Real Education Expenditures per capita
7.863***
(***)
4.514**
(**)
2.325*
Adjusted R2 0.80 0.79 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.82 0.83 0.83Durbin-Watson 1.42 1.43 1.50 1.51 1.56 1.48 1.48 1.56
Jarque-Bera (prob) 0.38 0.34 0.21 0.33 0.54 0.45 0.32 0.23Number of Obs. 198 198 198 198 198 108 108 108
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
76 78 82 84 86 88 94 98 02 06 10
Mean of UNAFFILIATION
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
UN
UN
AFFI
LIAT
ION
4
8
12
16
20
24
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
UN
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
ENCentral
0
4
8
12
16
4 6 8 10 12 14
UN
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
ESCentral
0
5
10
15
20
25
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
UN
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
MidAtlanta
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2 4 6 8 10
UN
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
Mountain
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2 4 6 8 10
UN
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
NewEngland
8
12
16
20
24
28
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
UN
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
Pacific
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2 4 6 8 10
UN
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
SAtlantic
0
4
8
12
16
20
3 4 5 6 7 8
UN
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
WNCentral
0
4
8
12
16
20
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
UN
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
WSCentral
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
44 48 52 56 60 64 68
GINI
UN
AFFI
LIAT
ION
4
8
12
16
20
24
44 48 52 56 60 64
GINI
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
ENCentral
0
4
8
12
16
45 50 55 60 65 70
GINI
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
ESCentral
0
5
10
15
20
25
45 50 55 60 65 70
GINI
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
MidAtlanta
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
48 52 56 60 64 68
GINI
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
Mountain
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
44 48 52 56 60 64
GINI
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
NewEngland
8
12
16
20
24
28
44 48 52 56 60 64
GINI
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
Pacific
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
44 48 52 56 60 64
GINI
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
SAtlantic
0
4
8
12
16
20
48 52 56 60 64
GINI
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
WNCentral
0
4
8
12
16
20
48 52 56 60 64 68
GINI
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
WSCentral
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1 2 3 4 5
COMBOHEALTH
UN
AFFI
LIAT
ION
4
8
12
16
20
24
0 1 2 3 4
COMBOHEALTH
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
ENCentral
0
4
8
12
16
0 1 2 3 4 5
COMBOHEALTH
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
ESCentral
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 1 2 3 4 5
COMBOHEALTH
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
MidAtlanta
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1 2 3 4
COMBOHEALTH
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
Mountain
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1 2 3 4 5
COMBOHEALTH
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
NewEngland
8
12
16
20
24
28
0 1 2 3 4
COMBOHEALTH
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
Pacific
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 1 2 3 4
COMBOHEALTH
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
SAtlantic
0
4
8
12
16
20
0 1 2 3 4
COMBOHEALTH
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
WNCentral
0
4
8
12
16
20
0 1 2 3 4
COMBOHEALTH
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
WSCentral
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
PERC65UP
UN
AFFI
LIAT
ION
4
8
12
16
20
24
10 11 12 13 14 15
PERC65UP
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
ENCentral
0
4
8
12
16
10 11 12 13 14 15
PERC65UP
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
ESCentral
0
5
10
15
20
25
11 12 13 14 15
PERC65UP
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
MidAtlanta
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
PERC65UP
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
Mountain
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
11 12 13 14 15
PERC65UP
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
NewEngland
8
12
16
20
24
28
9.5 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0
PERC65UP
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
Pacific
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
10 11 12 13 14 15
PERC65UP
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
SAtlantic
0
4
8
12
16
20
12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0
PERC65UP
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
WNCentral
0
4
8
12
16
20
10.0 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.0
PERC65UP
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
WSCentral
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
10 15 20 25 30 35 40
PERCBACHPLUS
UN
AFFI
LIAT
ION
4
8
12
16
20
24
12 16 20 24 28
PERCBACHPLUS
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
ENCentral
0
4
8
12
16
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
PERCBACHPLUS
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
ESCentral
0
5
10
15
20
25
16 20 24 28 32
PERCBACHPLUS
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
MidAtlanta
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
16 20 24 28 32
PERCBACHPLUS
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
Mountain
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
16 20 24 28 32 36
PERCBACHPLUS
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
NewEngland
8
12
16
20
24
28
18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32
PERCBACHPLUS
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
Pacific
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16 20 24 28 32
PERCBACHPLUS
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
SAtlantic
0
4
8
12
16
20
15.0 17.5 20.0 22.5 25.0 27.5 30.0
PERCBACHPLUS
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
WNCentral
0
4
8
12
16
20
14 16 18 20 22 24 26
PERCBACHPLUS
UN
AFF
ILIA
TIO
N
WSCentral