irmp 21-25 risk review; population and demographics. · irmp population and demographics page 1 of...

IRMP Population and Demographics of 27

IRMP 21-25 Risk Review; Population and Demographics.

Contents.

1. Executive Summary

2. Telford Risk Summary

3. Telford Findings

4. Shropshire Risk Summary

5. Shropshire Findings

6. Data/Graphs

Executive Summary

The County is split into two very diverse Authority areas.

Shropshire presents the challenge of old age, independent living and the resulting

pressures on social care and health. Shropshire is sparse and public service delivery

is expensive compared to urban areas. The ageing population will also impact on our

ability to recruit and retain staff. Pensioners dominate the ownership of property which

will increase pressure on the housing and employment market. Whilst Shropshire is

not dominated by social deprivation it should be noted that housing deprivation is

predicted to saw in rural areas. Pensioners may become increasingly cash poor and

asset rich.

Telford has ageing population pressures but is dominated by the challenges

associated with social deprivation. Regeneration of estates is at risk due to private

landlord growth in the south Telford estates coupled with housing associations

purchasing stock in new build areas away from the south.

The population has a healthy lifestyles challenge which may well influence the future

design of Safe and Well, this might conflict with Shropshire Council.

Telford Risk Summary

• An ageing population, the population is more consistent with a large

urban/metropolitan area. Telford is younger and more diverse than Shropshire.

• Significant areas of multiple deprivation housing 27% of the population.

• Health and lifestyle challenges often associated with deprivation

• Social issues including anti-social behaviour, drugs, criminality, Safeguarding,

Family disconnect and troubled families.

• Private rental and social housing are more prevalent than Shropshire.

• Social Isolation and loneliness is prevalent in south Telford.


Telford Findings

Telford and Wrekin is a blend of urban and rural areas, with green open spaces

alongside contemporary housing developments and traditional market towns. The

Borough is a prosperous place however there are clear differences across Telford.

Some neighbourhoods and communities in the Borough are among the most deprived

areas nationally, whereas equally some communities are amongst the more affluent

in England.

The population continues to grow at above national rates – driven by the expansion of

the local economy and record levels of housing growth. As the population grows, it

has continued to change in line with national trends, with the population becoming

more diverse and ageing. Although the population is ageing, it is younger than the

national structure – with concentrations of the younger population in south Telford.

However, over half of the population increase between now and 2031 will be in the

65+ age group.

One of the biggest challenges for the Borough remains health inequalities. It is

important though to emphasise that the health of the Borough is improving overall,

however, for a number of key measures the health of the population is not as good as

the national average. This gap to the national position is most evident in the most

deprived communities of the Borough with key challenges including a lower life

expectancy, higher rates of long-term illness and disabilities, high obesity rates and

high rates of admissions to hospital for a variety of conditions.

The most common risk factors identified in family assessments by the Council’s

Safeguarding Children Service are domestic violence, mental health and drug misuse.

The gap between the national and local picture for the educational attainment of

children has closed at Key Stage One and Two and the proportion of children

achieving a good level of development continue to improve year-on-year. There does,

though, remain a number of key challenges with regard to attainment levels, including

attainment at secondary level and for a number of groups not achieving the same

levels as their peers, including Disadvantaged children, children in receipt of free

school meals and children with an Education, Health and Care plan. 1

Population

Telford has an estimated population of 175,800 people and is younger than the

national picture. The population is growing, changing and ageing. The borough’s

population is projected to grow at a faster rate than the national population, rising to

196,600 people by 2031, with over half of this population increase expected in the

over-65 age group. 17% of the borough’s population is aged 65+. By 2031 there is

projected to be 11,700 more older people than in 2018, an increase of 40%.

1 Understanding Telford and Wrekin 2019 Report


Diversity

As the population grows it continues to become more diverse. Some 10% of the

population is from a BAME background, rising to over 13% in the 0-24 age group. As

well as new migrants a key driver of change has been the younger age structure of

BME groups leading to a greater likelihood of them having children. The majority of

the population’s ethnicity is white British, with the Borough having lower BAME rates

in all age groups than England. The highest proportion of BAME groups is found in

the 0-24 age group (T&W 13.1%, England 25.4%). The proportion of school-age

children from a BAME background is increasing (15.3% in 2014, 20.8% in 2018).

Around 92.7% of the population were born in the UK. 66.1% of residents have a

religion. Christian is the most predominant religion (61.7% of residents), followed by

Muslim (1.8% of residents). It is estimated that, of those residents aged 16+, around

3,500 identify as gay, lesbian, bisexual or other.

The workday population of Telford and Wrekin is around 1,300 people more than the

resident population.

Health

The population has higher rates of poor health: Residents report higher levels of bad

or very bad health compared to England (T&W 6.2%, England 5.5%), around 10,395

people.

Life expectancy at birth is significantly worse than England rates at 78.3 years for

males (79.4 England) and 81.8 years for females (83.1 England). The mortality rate

from causes considered preventable is lower than it was in 2010-12, however, the

Borough’s rate remains worse than the England average. The standardised mortality

ratio for people aged under 75 is higher than the national ratio for cardiovascular

disease and cancer but similar to the national ratio for liver and respiratory diseases.

The population don’t always make healthy lifestyle choices:

• 2.8% of all births had a low birth weight (less than 2,500g), similar to the England

rate.

• The under 18 conception rates has remained similar to the England rate since 2015.

• 17.2% (348) of mothers were smoking at delivery, significantly worse than England.

Breastfeeding initiation rate increased from 65.1% in 2012-13 to 71.0% in 2016-17,

although remain worse than England.

• The prevalence of smoking in those aged 18 & over decreased from 20.0% in 2014

to 16.5% in 2017- the rate has remained similar to England since 2014. The

prevalence of opiate and/or crack use was 8.5 in 2014-15, slightly lower than the

England rate (8.6).

• The proportion of children in reception with excess weight decreased from 24.1% in

2012-13 to 22.7% in 2017-18, similar to the England rate (22.2%). In Year Six children

with excess weight increased to 38.8% over the same period, worse than England rate

(34.3%).


• Levels of excess weight in adults was 65.6% in 2016-17, worse than the England

average (61.3%).

• The prevalence of alcohol dependence was 1.44 per 100 adults aged 18+ compared

to 1.11 per 100 adults across England.

Hospital admissions rates for a number of causes are higher than England: The Standardised Admissions Ratio of emergency admissions for all causes is worse than national. This ratio is also worse than national for Coronary Heart Disease, Stroke, Myocardial Infarction (heart attack), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). The ratio is similar to the national for hip fractures and alcohol-attributable conditions.

National prevalence rates enable an estimation of the number of residents with other

health conditions, these are:

• 1,000 children aged 5-10 and 1,500 aged 11-16 with a mental health disorder

• 17,400 adults aged 16-64 with a common mental health disorder and around

• 7,800 adults aged 16-64 with two or more psychiatric disorders.

• 800 older people aged 65 & over have severe depression.

• 1,800 residents aged 65 & over suffering from dementia.

• 4,100 residents have a learning disability.

• 1,500 residents have Autism

• The suicide rate was 11.4 per 100,000 population in 2015-17, the same as the

rate recorded in 2011-13.

• The proportion of pupils with Special Needs and Disabilities has grown from

10.9% in 2014 to 17.9% in 2018.

Safeguarding

Domestic Violence, Mental Health and Drug Misuse are the most common risk factors

identified by Safeguarding Children teams: The most common risk factors identified

in 1,807 assessments completed by Children Safeguarding Teams were domestic

violence (43.4%), mental health (43.4%) and drug misuse (24.5%). The top three

factors across England were domestic violence (51.1%), mental health (42.6%) and

emotional abuse (21.7%).

The rate per 10,000 population of children subject to a child protection plan is 136.8,

with the most common reason for a plan being Neglect (44.2%). The rate of children

becoming looked after is 24.7.

633 families met the thresholds for the Strengthening Families programme in 2017/18.

In Strengthening Families assessments, 70.3%, identified mental & emotional health

of children and young people as presenting need.

The second most common need was family relationships at 58.0%. There were 412

adults receiving alcohol treatment services and 771 receiving drug treatment services

in 2017/18.


Of the new presentations into alcohol and drug services in the year, the number who

were living with children was 63 for alcohol services and 49 for drug services, and the

number who were parents not living with children was 82 for alcohol services and 122

for drug services.

Around 27 children were known to early help or children’s safeguarding whose parents

were in alcohol treatment services, and around 30 for adults in drug treatment

services.

Homelessness

Homelessness rates are lower than England rates and households in temporary

accommodation is decreasing: 118 homeless decisions were made in 2017-18, of

these 52 were accepted as homeless, a rate of 0.74 per 1,000 households, lower than

England (2.41). The overall rate of households in temporary accommodation has

decreased and is below England and Non-London LA rates. The number of homeless

acceptances for young people (aged 16-24) decreased to 21 and is lower than the

England rate. The rate of households in temporary accommodation in Telford and

Wrekin has decreased from 0.81 per 1,000 households in 2013-14 to 0.49 per 1,000

households

Adult Social Care

Adult Social Care is delivered to fewer people than the national rate. In 2017-18, 2,215

adults aged 18 and over received long term support during the year in Telford and

Wrekin. 845 of these people were aged 18-64, and 1,370 were 65 or older. As a rate

per 100,000, both age groups are less likely to access long term support than England

rates. Those in the 65 and over age group were more likely to be receiving residential

(20.7%) or nursing care (14.9%), compared to 2.1% and 12.0% of 18-64-year-olds.

A higher proportion of people in Telford and Wrekin report to be providing unpaid care,

including 1,530 people aged under 25. This is above the English average There were

713 people aged 65+ receiving long term social care in a community setting and 308

people aged 65+ receiving long term care in a residential/nursing care setting. It is

anticipated the percentage of those in community care will increase.

Adults with learning disabilities receiving long term social care In August 2019 there

were 407 adults with learning disabilities receiving long term social care.

A higher proportion of people in Telford and Wrekin report having bad or very bad

health than the England rate.1,886 people aged 65+ are estimated to have dementia

in 2019 of which 65.1% have been diagnosed. By 2035 the number of older people

with dementia is predicted to increase by 71%.2

2 Source: NHS digital – Diagnosis rate and 2019 estimate; poppi.org.uk – 2035 projection


Age

The population of Telford and Wrekin is ‘younger ‘than the national position, although

with the fastest growth being in the 65+ age group the age profile of the borough is

now much closer to the national position. Reflective of this population, Telford and

Wrekin have a higher proportion of households with dependent children and a lower

number of households aged 65+.

There are some 73,000 homes in Telford, and this is forecast to grow at around 1,000

net new homes annually for the next 15 years as set out in the Authority Local Plan.

The number of homes rented from private landlords grew significantly between 2001

and 2011 and is forecast to continue to rise. The mean (average) selling price of a

house in the borough in November 2018 was £165,968, below the regional (£197,387)

and national (£247,430) averages.

Deprivation

Telford and Wrekin is a place of socio-economic contrasts: Parts of the Borough are

amongst the most deprived in England, with deprivation rates comparable with inner

cities, whilst other areas are amongst the least deprived in England.

There remain challenges around levels of deprivation:

• 17.3% (30,408 people) of the population live in income deprived families. 23.9%

(8,603) of children aged 0-15 live in income deprived households and 18.1% (7,243)

of older adults aged 60 & over live in income deprived households.

• 14,610 (19.6%) of households claim housing benefit in 2017. Around 40% of these

households, (5,839) had dependent children.

• More than two in five lone parents (43.5%) are not in employment, higher than the

England average (40.5%).

• 12.1% of households were in fuel poverty in 2016, higher than the England average

of 11.1%.

Out of 108 neighbourhood areas 15 are ranked among the 10% nationally most

deprived. Primarily focussed in South Telford: Woodside x4, Malinslee and Dawley

Bank x3, Madeley and Sutton Hill x2, Brookside x2, Dawley and Aqueduct x2, Hadley

and Leegomery and College.

A total of 27% of the population live in areas which are amongst the 20% most deprived

areas nationally. Nearly 30% of the population live in deprivation.3

3 Telford and Wrekin Facts and Figures Health and Wellbeing 2019


Crime

The highest occurring crime types are Anti-Social Behaviour and Violence & Sexual

Offences. The rate of juvenile first-time entrants to the criminal justice system shows

a considerable reduction between 2011 and 2017 from 636.7 to 357.2 per 100,000

population, however, is higher than the national rate (305.3).

Education

Most children attend good schools: 83.4% of pupils are in schools graded Good or

Outstanding by Ofsted (92.6% in primary, 66.0% in secondary and 90.0 in special).

Educational attainment in primary schools is improving and above the England

average for KS1 and KS2: 70.9% of pupils achieved a good level of development

(GLD) in 2018, an increase from 66.6% pupils in 2015. This compares to 71.5% across

England.

Key Stage One attainment is above the national average by 1 percentage point in all

subjects. 76% of pupils achieved the expected standard in KS1 reading, 71% in KS1

writing and 77% in KS1 maths.

Key Stage Two attainment is above the national average in RWM (67%, England

65%), Reading (77%, England 76%) and Writing (80%, England 79%). 76% achieved

the expected standard in Maths, the same as the National average.

Pupils achieved above average progress score between KS1 and KS2 for writing but

achieved below-average scores for maths.4

Educational attainment in secondary schools is lower: The average KS4 Attainment

8 score in state-funded schools was 45.4 in 2018, below the England average (46.6).

Attainment scores of 9.6 in English and 8.7 in maths, lower than the England averages

(9.9 in English, 9.1 in maths).

39.9% achieved a strong 9-5 pass in GCSEs English and Maths and 59.3% a standard

9-4 pass, below the England averages of 43.5% and 64.4%.

The average progress scores in English and maths were both lower than the National

(English T&W -0.18, England -0.04. Maths -0.19, England -0.02).

Special Educational Needs and Disabilities numbers have grown: 4,402(17.9%) of

pupils have Special Education Needs and Disabilities (SEND).

The largest type of need is Moderate Learning Difficulty (1,447), followed by Speech,

Language & Communication needs (922) and Social, emotional mental health (813)

The proportion of pupils with SEND has grown from 10.9% in 2014 to 17.9% in 2018.

Disadvantaged pupils have lower attainment, particularly at Key Stage Four: • The

attainment gap (KS2) between disadvantaged and other pupils was 20% points in

4 JSNA-Understanding Telford and Wrekin 2019


2018, same as the England average (20% points). • The attainment gap (KS4)

between disadvantaged and other pupils was 17.1, compared to 13.5 across England.

A high rate of residents have no qualifications: • 8.0% of working-age residents had

no qualifications in 2017 and 28.5% were qualified to NVQ level 4 and above

compared to England averages of 7.6% and 38.3%.

Fuel Poverty

The proportion of households in fuel poverty in Telford and Wrekin increased from

11.0% in 2012 to 12.1% in 2016. Across England, the rate increased to 11.1% over

the same period.

Shropshire Risk Summary

• Ageing and increasingly independent living alone.

• Huge predicted growth in 85+

• Vulnerable population spread across great sparsity

• Life risk migrating to ever-increasingly rural areas

• Age relate illnesses increasing

• Reducing the percentage of people of working age meaning more people

dependent on fewer working adults

• School populations expected to drop with potential over provision

• Localised areas of deprivation even in rural locations

• Tenure trend is that OAP population twice as likely to own property

• Social Isolation is also a significant urban factor

• Changing population may reduce the On-Call recruitment pool

Shropshire Findings

The population of Shropshire is changing. It is expected that our population will

increase in size by approximately 8% by the year 2032 and the structure of our

population will change as a result. The proportion of our population aged 65+ will

increase at a rate greater than the national trend. In comparison to other parts of

England, Shropshire is not particularly deprived. However, as with all other regions,

when compared to the county as a whole, there are certain small areas of Shropshire

that are deprived.

The county has an estimated resident population of 317,5005 people, of which 65%

live in the key centres and market towns and 35% lives in the countryside and smaller

settlements. Shropshire has a population density of 0.98 persons per hectare

5 ONS, (2018), Mid-Year Population Estimates, www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland


compared to 4.24 for England, 3.87 for England and Wales and 4.46 for the West

Midlands.

The County Town of Shrewsbury is estimated to support a resident population of

around 75,0006 people. Only five other settlements in Shropshire support populations

of over 10,000 people (Oswestry, Bridgnorth, Ludlow, Market Drayton and

Whitchurch). The Strategic, Principal and Key Centres cover only around 2% of

Shropshire’s land area.

In 2036 it is predicted that 33% of Shropshire’s population will be aged 65 or over, this

compares to a figure of 24% for England and 23% West Midlands. The largest growth

is found in the 85+ population which is set to increase from 9,700 persons 2016 to

21,000 persons in 2036 (116%) this compares to an increase of 85% in the West

Midlands and 90% in England (85+ population)7

Shropshire’s changing demographics and an increasingly ageing population are

leading to an increase in vulnerable and isolated older people within our communities.

National study and historic data show that the older population is more at risk of fire-

related deaths. This, coupled with the pressures on social care services, identifies this

demography change as a key strategic risk and a significant challenge to the

continuation of reducing fire-related deaths.

During 2001-2017 dwelling stock increased by 16.6% in Shropshire. On average

dwelling stock increased by 1,193 a year or 0.9% a year during 2001-17. In 2017

Shropshire Council had 142,434 dwellings.

Shropshire expands across 319,7308 hectares and is structured around approximately

540 settlements, including the Strategic Centre (Shrewsbury); five Principal Centres

(Oswestry, Bridgnorth, Market Drayton, Whitchurch and Ludlow); and 11 Key Centres

(Albrighton, Bishops Castle, Broseley, Church Stretton, Cleobury Mortimer, Craven

Arms, Ellesmere, Highley, Much Wenlock, Shifnal and Wem)9.

Shropshire’s settlement structure of highly dispersed market towns, small villages and

hamlets makes the provision of local services a challenge and the provision of public

transport costly. This contrasts with the more sparsely populated rural Counties of

North Yorkshire, Cumbria and Northumberland. These Counties contain National

Parks with natural environments that in some areas are uninhabitable.

Shropshire’s Growing Elderly Population

In Shropshire, a growing older person population is likely to have some impact on the

future need and demand for homes and care. Indeed, as population projections show,

6 Shropshire Council, (2018), Hierarchy of Settlements, https://shropshire.gov.uk/planning-policy/local-planning/local-plan-partial-review-2016-2036/evidence-base/ 7 Shropshire Council 2019 Update; Older People Profile Shropshire 8 ONS, (2019), 2011 Census: Key Statistics Table KS101EW: Usual Resident Population – ONS www.nomisweb.co.uk/census/2011/key_statistics 9 Shropshire Council, (2018), Hierarchy of Settlements, shropshire.gov.uk/planning-policy/local-planning/local-plan-partial-review-2016-2036/evidence-base/

https://shropshire.gov.uk/planning-policy/local-planning/local-plan-partial-review-2016-2036/evidence-base/


https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/census/2011/key_statistics



the number of older people is expected to increase significantly over the next few

years.

When compared with both the region and England, Shropshire has a higher proportion

of older persons. In 2017 it is estimated that 24% of Shropshire’s population is aged

65+, this compares with a West Midlands and England figure of 18%.

Areas in Shropshire where the proportion of older people is 30% or higher are Church

Stretton (32%), Much Wenlock (31%), and Ludlow (30%).10

Shropshire is expected to see a 49% increase in the older person population with the

total number of people aged 65 and over projected to grow from 74,302 in 2016 to

111,062 in 2036. The projected increase is in line with that expected for England (45%)

and higher than that in the West Midlands (36%). Whilst the Under 65 population

continues to grow slightly for both England and the West Midlands (3%), the Under 65

population of Shropshire is expected to fall slightly by -7%.11

Overall the proportion of the population aged 65 and over is set to increase from 24%

of the total population in 2016 to 33% of the total population in 2036. The largest

growth is in the 85+ population which accounts for 3% of the population in 2016 and

increases to 6% of the population in 2036.

In 2036 it is predicted that 33% of Shropshire’s population will be aged 65 or over, this

compares to a figure of 24% for England and 23% West Midlands. The largest growth

is found in the 85+ population which is set to increase from 9,700 persons 2016 to

21,000 persons in 2036 (116%) this compares to an increase of 85% in the West

Midlands and 90% in England (85+ population).

Life Expectancy

Life expectancy has increased for both males and females during the period 2000 to

2014. The age for males has increased from 81.3 years to 84.2 years, a 4% increase

and for females, it has increased by 3% from 84.5 years to 86.8 years of age.

Projected Change in Average Age

The average age in Shropshire is projected to change from 43 years in 2016 to 46

years in 2041. In comparison, the median age is projected to grow from 46 years in

2016 to 52 years in 2041. Both the average and median ages continue to grow

throughout the life of the projections. This is attributable to Shropshire’ ageing

population (born during and after the second world war to the mid-1960s when fertility

rates peaked nationally). In contrast, the average age nationally in 2016 is 39 years,

rising to 41 years in 2041 and regionally 39 years rising to 40 years. Nationally, the

10 Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates 2017, © Crown Copyright, 2019 11 Source: ONS 2016 Sub-National Population Projections, © Crown Copyright, 2019


median age in 2016 is 39 years rising to 43 years in 2041 and regionally is rising from

39 years rising to 41 years.

Dependency Ratio

The dependency ratio is a measure showing the number of dependents, aged zero to

15 years and 65 years and over, relative to the total population, aged 16 to 64

(working-age population). The higher the ratio the greater level of dependency. The

dependency ratio is used by economists as a measure of the pressure on the

productive working-age population particularly financially in terms supporting the

upbringing and care needs of the dependent population.

This pressure on the working-age population can impact on local economic growth

and shape local economic policies designed to nurture a healthy and productive labour

force.

In 2016, Shropshire had a dependency ratio of 67 dependent people for every 100-

independent people, compared to 59 nationally and 61 regionally. Shropshire’s higher

dependency ratio is a reflection of Shropshire’s older age structure, where a greater

proportion of the population has reached the traditional retirement age of 65 years.

Household Projections (Older People) and Older People Living Alone

The Sub-National Household Projections (2016) show that overall 52% older persons

(65+) will be living alone in 2036 in Shropshire compared to figures in 2016. The

largest increase is in the 85+ age group where the number of people over the age of

85 living alone is projected to rise from 4,519 in 2016 to 9,634 in 2036.

Health-Related Population Projections

The number of people with dementia or mobility issues which result in them being

unable to manage at least one activity on their own is expected to rise significantly

with the increase in the elderly population. The following table shows that between

2017 and 2035 the number of people aged 65+ with dementia is expected to increase

by 80%. Those people who are aged 65 plus and unable to manage at least one

activity on their own is projected to increase by 63%. 12

Older People with long-term health problems or disabilities Overlapping with both the

number of older persons and the analysis above about dementia and mobility

problems will be levels of disability generally. The data suggests that across the study

area some 26% of households contain someone with an LTHPD. This figure is in line

with that of the West Midlands and England. It is estimated that 83.2% of people aged

85 and over have an LTHPD.

12 Source: Projecting Older People Population Information System, www.poppi.org.uk version 10.0 Shropshire Council


Household Projections (Older People) and Older People Living Alone.





A 156% increase in single males over 85 living alone by 2032.

Tenure of Older Persons Households

The data shows that older person households are more likely to live in outright owned

accommodation (73% compared to 39% of all households in Shropshire). Older

person households are less likely to live in private rented accommodation (6%

compared to 15% of all households in Shropshire). It should also be noted that there

are differences between different types of older person households. Single older

people have a lower level of owner-occupation (70%) and a higher proportion living in

the social rented sector (19%).

Projections show that the older population is expected to rise in the future and that the

number of single-person households is expected to increase if occupancy patterns

remain similar than it could suggest that there will be demand for an increase in the

amount of affordable housing available.

The challenge will be older persons, often single householders, trying to maintain

property that they own with no societal or systematic support.

Residential and Nursing Care

Data from the Care Quality Commission web site shows that there are currently 65

care homes in Shropshire. There are 17 registered to provide Nursing care and 48

registered to provide Residential Care. Independent living supported by Public Health

initiatives such as Social Prescribing will need to further underpin the ever-increasing

population and its requirements.

Deprivation

The Index of Multiple Local Deprivation – the overall score

In comparison to other counties in England and Wales, Shropshire is not particularly

deprived – though there are small areas where the level of deprivation is high.

When using the Index of Multiple Deprivation to compare levels of deprivation, it is

important to remember that the more deprived an area, the higher the deprivation

score but the lower the rank.


Shropshire's score is 16.689, which means it is ranked number 41 out of All English

unitary authorities (there are a total of 56) and number 185 out of all 326 authorities in

England. 13

Early Years Population.

Early Year’s population in Shropshire (sometimes referred to as the pre-school

population) is projected to fall from 15,000 in 2016 to 14,000 in 2041. This represents

a decline of 6.8%, relative to -1.4% nationally and regionally growth of 2.4%. This

decline suggests fewer school places may be needed in the future in Shropshire if

present trends continue.

In Shropshire and nationally, the Early Year’s population is projected to decline more

sharply in the short-term to 2026 (-5% and -3.3% respectively). This compares to -

1.9% in Shropshire and growth of 2.0% nationally from 2026 to 2041.

School-Age Population

The School-Age population in Shropshire (5-15 years) is projected to fall by -2,100

people from 37,000 in 2016 to 34,900 in 2041. This represents a decline of -5.7%,

relative to the growth of 5.1% nationally and 7.2% regionally. Again, this suggests that

fewer school places will be needed in the future if present trends continue.

The greatest decline in population is in the primary school age group of 5-10 years (-

10.0% or -2,000 people), compared to only -0.6% (100 people) for the secondary

school age group of 11-15 years.

In Shropshire, the School-Age population is projected to decline more sharply in the

short-term to 2026 (-5.8%) when compared with the projected change from 2026 to

2041 (0.1%). Nationally the School Age population is projected to rise by 8.9% in the

short-term and then fall by -3.6% from 2026 to 2041.

Working Age Population

The size and diversity of Shropshire’s labour force are vital for ensuring a healthy and

growing local economy. Business’s need to be able to maintain and attract skilled and

knowledgeable staff to secure their future productivity and growth.

The majority of the labour force is drawn from the working-age population (16 to 64

years of age), which in Shropshire’s case is projected to decline by -7.3 in the long-

term and -2.1% in the short-term. This presents policymakers and the business

community in Shropshire with challenges to nurture and attract people of working age.

A planned step forward is the development of the new Shrewsbury University Centre.

In contrast to Shropshire, the working-age population in the West Midlands (4.5%) and

England (3.6%) is projected to rise, although a relatively low level of growth.

13 Shropshire Community Safety Partnership Strategic Needs Analysis


Large employment centres like the West Midlands metropolitan area generally have a

younger age structure and this is reinforced by recent trends in the net in-migration.

This has the knock-on effect of relatively higher birth rates and higher rates of growth

in the younger age groups.

The female Working Age population is projected to experience the greatest decline of

-7.5% (7,200) from 2016 to 2041, compared to -6.9% in the male population.

Fuel Poverty

Fuel poverty is a significant issue with an estimated 17,670 households thought to

suffer from fuel poverty across.

It means that the issue affects 12 per cent of households in Shropshire and Telford.

That's slightly lower than the average of 13 per cent across the West Midlands and

above the national the rate of 11 per cent.


Graphs, Data and Diagrams

Shropshire Age and Population Tables and Diagrams.

The table below provides baseline population data about older persons and compares

this with other areas. The data for this has been taken from the published ONS mid-

year population estimates and is provided for age groups from 65 and upwards.14

The graph below shows the proportion of the population in each Place Plan area who

are aged; 65-74, 75-84, 85+ and the total aged 65+.

14 Population Mid-Year Estimates, Office for National Statistics (October 2018), © Crown Copyright, 2019

Area Under65 65-74 75-84 85+ Total Population 65+ Population

Shropshire Total 241,429 41,966 24,086 9,978 317,459 76,030

% of Population 76% 13% 8% 3% 100% 24%

West Midlands 4,784,950 585,248 347,711 142,797 5,860,706 1,075,756

% of Population 82% 10% 6% 2% 100% 18%

England 45,588,919 5,495,181 3,183,274 1,352,056 55,619,430 10,030,511

% of Population 82% 10% 6% 2% 100% 18%

Older Person Population - Shropshire, West Midlands and England (2017)


Chart showing OAP Population breakdown15/16

15 Shropshire Council Older People Profile 2019. 16 Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates 2017, © Crown Copyright, 2019

Place Plan Area Age 65-74 Age 75-84 Age 85+Total

PopulationTotal 65+

Albrighton 806 611 284 7188 1701

% of Population 11% 9% 4% 100% 24%

Bishop's Castle 1831 884 342 10713 3057

% of Population 17% 8% 3% 100% 29%

Bridgnorth 3808 2114 891 24589 6813

% of Population 15% 9% 4% 100% 28%

Broseley 840 366 126 5663 1332

% of Population 15% 6% 2% 100% 24%

Church Stretton 1529 983 413 9093 2925

% of Population 17% 11% 5% 100% 32%

Cleobury Mortimer 1135 549 198 6875 1882

% of Population 17% 8% 3% 100% 27%

Craven Arms 1046 556 234 6661 1836

% of Population 16% 8% 4% 100% 28%

Ellesmere 1262 716 259 9402 2237

% of Population 13% 8% 3% 100% 24%

Highley 873 455 125 5478 1453

% of Population 16% 8% 2% 100% 27%

Ludlow 2563 1680 760 16920 5003

% of Population 15% 10% 4% 100% 30%

Market Drayton 3060 1588 631 24998 5279

% of Population 12% 6% 3% 100% 21%

Much Wenlock 588 316 143 3348 1047

% of Population 18% 9% 4% 100% 31%

Oswestry 5193 3138 1240 42311 9571

% of Population 12% 7% 3% 100% 23%

Pontesbury & Minsterley 799 454 196 5586 1449

% of Population 14% 8% 4% 100% 26%

Shifnal 1065 633 213 8499 1911

% of Population 13% 7% 3% 100% 22%

Shrewsbury 11634 6834 3013 99800 21481

% of Population 12% 7% 3% 100% 22%

Wem 1957 1126 448 15637 3531

% of Population 13% 7% 3% 100% 23%

Whitchurch 1977 1083 462 14698 3522

% of Population 13% 7% 3% 100% 24%


Population Aged 65+ by Ethnic Group

Ethnic Group Age 65

to 69

Age 70

to 74

Age 75

to 79

Age 80

to 84

Age

85 +

White (this includes British, Irish and Other

White) 18,970 15,080 11,680 8,940 8,390

Mixed Ethnicity (this includes White and Black

Caribbean; White and Black African; White

and Asian; and Other Mixed

30 20 20 10 10

Asian or Asian British (this includes Indian;

Pakistani; Bangladeshi; Chinese; and Other

Mixed

40 40 10 20 10

Black or Black British (this includes

Caribbean; African; Other Black) 10 5 5 5 5

Other Ethnic Group 10 10 5 5 5

All People 19,060 15,150 11,710 8,970 8,410

Source: Census 2011, ONS, © Crown Copyright, 2019

Future Changes in the Population of Older Persons

Projected change in the population of Older Persons 2016 to 203617

The data shows that Shropshire is expected to see a 49% increase in the older person

population with the total number of people aged 65 and over projected to grow from

74,302 in 2016 to 111,062 in 2036.

17 Source: ONS 2016 Sub-National Population Projections, © Crown Copyright, 2019

Under 65 65-74 75-84 85+Total Aged

65+

Total

Population

Shropshire -7% 28% 60% 116% 49% 6%

West Midlands 3% 24% 42% 85% 36% 10%

England 3% 23% 53% 90% 45% 10%

Age

% Change in Population 2016 to 2036


Proportion of Total Population aged 65+

The table below illustrates the projected changes in the older person population as a

proportion of the total population.

Area Age 2016 2017 2036 % of Total

Populatio

n 2016

% of Total

Populatio

n 2017

% of Total

Populatio

n 2036

Shropshire Under

65 240100 239600 223700 76% 76% 67%

Shropshire 65-74 41000 41800 52400 13% 13% 16%

Shropshire 75-84 23500 24200 37700 7% 8% 11%

Shropshire 85+ 9700 9900 21000 3% 3% 6%

Shropshire 65+ 74300 75900 111100 24% 24% 33%

Shropshire Total

Populat

ion

314400 315400 334800

Area Age 2016 2017 2036

% of Total

Population

2016

% of Total

Population

2017

% of Total

Population

2036

Shropshire Under 65 240100 239600 223700 76% 76% 67%

Shropshire 65-74 41000 41800 52400 13% 13% 16%

Shropshire 75-84 23500 24200 37700 7% 8% 11%

Shropshire 85+ 9700 9900 21000 3% 3% 6%

Shropshire 65+ 74300 75900 111100 24% 24% 33%

Shropshire

Total

Population 314400 315400 334800

Health-Related Population Projections


The number of people with dementia or mobility issues which result in them being

unable to manage at least one activity on their own is expected to rise significantly

with the increase in the elderly population.18

Older People with long-term health problems or disabilities

The table below shows the proportion of people with a long-term health problem of

disability (LTHPD) and the proportion of households where at least one person has an

LTHPD.

The chart below shows the tenure of older person households. The data has been

18 Source: Projecting Older People Population Information System, www.poppi.org.uk version 10.0

Area Households containing someone with a

health problem Population with Health Problem

Number % Number %

Shropshire 33,713 26% 56,826 18.6%

West Midlands 622,565 27% 1,062,064 19.0%

England 5,659,606 26% 9,352,586 17.6%

Type of illness/disability 2017 2035 Change %

Increase

Population aged 65 & over predicted to have

dementia 5,246 9,466 4,220 80%

Population aged 65 & over unable to manage at

least one activity on their own 13,773 22,487 8,714 63%

66%

81%73%

27%

39%

4%

6%

5%

40%

31%

19%

7%

14%

14%14%

7%4%

6%18% 15%

4%1%

3% 1% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Single older people 2 or More OlderPersons

All 65+ Only All OtherHouseholds

All Households

% o

f h

ou

seh

old

s in

gro

up

Owner Occupied (no mortgage) Owner Occupied (with mortgage) Social Rented Private Rented Living rent free

http://www.poppi.org.uk/


Elderly Living Alone





The chart below shows the number of persons aged 65 and over who are living alone

and

the

number living in a couple by Place Plan Area.

7,0

00

2,9

00

1,9

00

1,7

00

1,4

00

1,1

00

1,1

00

90

0

80

0

60

0

60

0

50

0

50

0 40

0

40

0 40

0

40

0

30

0

10

,40

0

4,7

00

3,4

00

3,3

00

2,6

00

1,8

00

1,7

00

1,6

00

1,6

00

1,1

00

90

0

90

0

1,0

00

60

0

1,1

00 70

0

80

0

50

00%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Shre

wsb

ury

Osw

estr

y

Lud

low

Bri

dgn

ort

h

Mar

ket

Dra

yto

n

Wem

Wh

itch

urc

h

Bis

ho

ps

Cas

tle

Ch

urc

h S

tret

ton

Elle

smer

e

Shif

nal

Alb

righ

ton

Cra

ven

Arm

s

Bro

sele

y

Cle

ob

ury

Mo

rtim

er

Po

nte

sbu

ry &

Min

ster

ley

Hig

hle

y

Mu

ch W

en

lock

Living Arrangements - Persons 65+

Not Living in a Couple Living in A Couple


Telford Age and Population Tables and Diagrams.

Comparison of Index of Multiple Deprivation between Telford and Wrekin and

Shropshire.

Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government

Telford and Wrekin Index of multiple deprivation rankings 2015 and 2019.

71 6539

6036

100 110 113129 129

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

IMD - Rank of averagerank

IMD - Rank of averagescore

IMD - Rank ofproportion of LSOAs

in most deprived 10%nationally

IMD 2019 - Rank ofextent

IMD 2019 - Rank oflocal concentration

IMD Rank of Upper Tier Local Authority summary measures(where 1 is most deprived)

Telford and Wrekin Shropshire


4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

0-6

5-11

10-16

15-21

20-26

25-31

30-36

35-41

40-46

45-51

50-56

55-61

60-66

65-71

70-76

75-81

80-86

85-91

90+

Telford and Wrekin population pyramid Projected population 2033

male female


Population projections for Telford and Wrekin

Age male female Age male female Age male female male female

0-4 5400 5100 0-5 5300 5100 0-6 5300 5100 0-6 -0.03 0.03

5-9 5700 5500 5-10 5600 5400 5-11 5500 5300 5-11 -0.03 0.03

10-14 6200 6000 10-15 5800 5600 10-16 5700 5500 10-16 -0.03 0.03

15-19 5800 5600 15-20 6300 6100 15-21 6000 5700 15-21 -0.03 0.03

20-24 5400 4900 20-25 5900 5300 20-26 6400 5700 20-26 -0.03 0.03

25-29 5600 5300 25-30 5100 4800 25-31 5500 5200 25-31 -0.03 0.03

30-34 5900 5600 30-35 5700 5500 30-36 5300 5100 30-36 -0.03 0.03

35-39 5700 5900 35-40 6100 5800 35-41 5900 5600 35-41 -0.03 0.03

40-44 5800 5800 40-45 5800 6000 40-46 6200 5900 40-46 -0.03 0.03

45-49 5400 5100 45-50 5800 5800 45-51 5900 6000 45-51 -0.03 0.03

50-54 6200 6200 50-55 5300 5100 50-56 5700 5800 50-56 -0.03 0.03

55-59 6200 6300 55-60 6100 6100 55-61 5100 5000 55-61 -0.03 0.03

60-64 5400 5600 60-65 6000 6200 60-66 5900 6000 60-66 -0.03 0.03

65-69 4400 4700 65-70 5100 5400 65-71 5700 6000 65-71 -0.03 0.03

70-74 4100 4400 70-75 4000 4500 70-76 4700 5100 70-76 -0.03 0.03

75-79 3400 4000 75-80 3600 4000 75-81 3600 4100 75-81 -0.02 0.02

80-84 2100 2500 80-85 2800 3300 80-86 2900 3400 80-86 -0.02 0.02

85-89 1100 1500 85-90 1400 1800 85-91 1900 2400 85-91 -0.01 0.01

90+ 400 800 90+ 600 1000 90+ 800 1200 90+ 0.00 0.01

Total population90200 90800 Total population92400 92700 Total population94200 94100 188257 Total population94162 94095

Source: Office for National Statistics, 2016 Sub National Population Projections

2023 2028 2033 2033


Tenure

West

MidlandsEngland

2011 2011

HHolds % HHolds % % %

Owns

outright18,106 27.20% 14,522 22.80% 32.30% 30.60%

Owns

with a

mortgage

or loan

24,311 36.50% 28,937 45.40% 32.60% 32.80%

292 0.40% 425 0.70% 0.70% 0.80%

Rented

from

Council

(Local

Authority)

5,409 8.10% 5,804 9.10% 10.90% 9.40%

Other

social

rented

7,697 11.60% 8,244 12.90% 8.10% 8.30%

Private

landlord

or letting

agency

9,055 13.60% 3,762 5.90% 12.80% 15.40%

Employer

of a

household

member

164 0.20% 227 0.40% 0.20% 0.30%

Relative

or friend

of

household

member

602 0.90% 296 0.50% 0.80% 0.90%

Other 158 0.20% 219 0.30% 0.20% 0.30%

814 1.20% 1,332 2.10% 1.50% 1.30%

66,608 100.00% 63,768 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

Source: Office for National Statistics 2001 Census (UV63) 2011 Census (QS405)

Private

rented

Lives rent free

All households

Telford and Wrekin

2011 2001

Owned

Shared ownership

Social

rented


Lonliness in older people

Source: Office for National Statistics, 2011 Census, CT0467

A prediction is generated for each person, this starts with a base value, which is then

adjusted based on a number of other variables. The result is a final prediction value for

each person which is then averaged for geographical areas. Areas with a value closer

to 0 predict a greater prevalence of loneliness amongst those aged 65 and over and

living in households, compared to areas with a value further away from 0.

© Crown copyright. All rights reserved.

Borough of Telford & Wrekin Licence No. 100019694. Date. 2017

Localities

Prediction of loneliness

-4.9918 to -4.3062

-4.3062 to -3.9443

-3.9443 to -3.5879

-3.5879 to -3.1399

-3.1399 to -2.4226


West

MidlandsEngland

2011 2011

HHolds % HHolds % % %

Aged 65

and over7,113 10.70% 7,316 11.50% 12.60% 12.40%

Other 9,680 14.50% 9,235 14.50% 16.90% 17.90%

5,035 7.60% 4,610 7.20% 8.60% 8.10%

No

children9,221 13.80% 9,466 14.80% 12.10% 12.30%

With

dependen

t children

10,915 16.40% 12,584 19.70% 15.40% 15.30%

All

children

non-

dependen

t

4,075 6.10% 4,048 6.30% 6.20% 5.60%

No

children3,793 5.70% 3,160 5.00% 4.80% 5.30%

With

dependen

t children

3,759 5.60% 2,679 4.20% 4.30% 4.00%

All

children

non-

dependen

t

399 0.60% 258 0.40% 0.50% 0.50%

With

dependen

t children

5,394 8.10% 5,021 7.90% 7.50% 7.10%

All

children

non-

dependen

t

2,416 3.60% 2,041 3.20% 3.80% 3.50%

With

dependen

t children

1,928 2.90% 1,531 2.10% 2.90% 2.60%

All

student182 0.30% 133 0.20% 0.50% 0.60%

All aged

65 and

over

165 0.20% 186 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%

Other 2,533 3.80% 1,680 2.60% 3.60% 4.50%

66,608 100.00% 63,768 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

Source: Office for National Statistics 2001 Census (UV65), 2011 Census (QS113)

Other households

All households

Telford and Wrekin

2011 2001

One person

One

family and

no others

All aged 65 and over

Married

couple

household

s

(including

same-sex

civil

partnershi

p couple

household

s)

Cohabitin

g couple

household

s

(including

same-sex

cohabiting

couple

household

s)

Lone

parent

household

s


Appendix

irmp 21-25 risk review; population and demographics. · irmp population and demographics page 1 of...

Documents