iraq war economy: displacement and living conditions iraq war economy displacement and living...

Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions

Iraq War EconomyIraq War EconomyDisplacement and Living ConditionsDisplacement and Living ConditionsKhalid M. KhalidKhalid M. KhalidProgramme AssociateProgramme AssociateUNDP IraqUNDP Iraq

Iraq War EconomyIraq War EconomyDisplacement and Living ConditionsDisplacement and Living ConditionsKhalid M. KhalidKhalid M. KhalidProgramme AssociateProgramme AssociateUNDP IraqUNDP Iraq


ContentsContentsContentsContents

• Iraq pre 2003 warIraq pre 2003 war• Status shortly after the warStatus shortly after the war• Displacement and violence: post-Samarra bombingDisplacement and violence: post-Samarra bombing• How things stand todayHow things stand today

• Iraq pre 2003 warIraq pre 2003 war• Status shortly after the warStatus shortly after the war• Displacement and violence: post-Samarra bombingDisplacement and violence: post-Samarra bombing• How things stand todayHow things stand today


Introduction: First 11 YearsIntroduction: First 11 YearsIntroduction: First 11 YearsIntroduction: First 11 Years

Much of what is happening today has roots the Ba’th regime Much of what is happening today has roots the Ba’th regime rule that started 1968rule that started 1968 • Violent changes of regime since 1958Violent changes of regime since 1958• Ba’th regime coup, 1968: profound and forced social Ba’th regime coup, 1968: profound and forced social

and economic changesand economic changes• Basic strategy: concentrate power in state’s handsBasic strategy: concentrate power in state’s hands• Nationalization campaign culminating in Nationalization campaign culminating in nationalization of oil in 1972nationalization of oil in 1972

Much of what is happening today has roots the Ba’th regime Much of what is happening today has roots the Ba’th regime rule that started 1968rule that started 1968 • Violent changes of regime since 1958Violent changes of regime since 1958• Ba’th regime coup, 1968: profound and forced social Ba’th regime coup, 1968: profound and forced social

and economic changesand economic changes• Basic strategy: concentrate power in state’s handsBasic strategy: concentrate power in state’s hands• Nationalization campaign culminating in Nationalization campaign culminating in nationalization of oil in 1972nationalization of oil in 1972



• Income from oil rose tenfold to form 87% of total Income from oil rose tenfold to form 87% of total revenuesrevenues• Development projects in Education, welfare, Development projects in Education, welfare, industry, and capital projectsindustry, and capital projects

• Income from oil rose tenfold to form 87% of total Income from oil rose tenfold to form 87% of total revenuesrevenues• Development projects in Education, welfare, Development projects in Education, welfare, industry, and capital projectsindustry, and capital projects



• Revenues financed building strong political Revenues financed building strong political basebase• Oppress opposition or buy them off with financial Oppress opposition or buy them off with financial benefits, especially the militarybenefits, especially the military• Huge development projects opened opportunities for Huge development projects opened opportunities for

the business people who had connections the business people who had connections with the regimewith the regime

• Revenues financed building strong political Revenues financed building strong political basebase• Oppress opposition or buy them off with financial Oppress opposition or buy them off with financial benefits, especially the militarybenefits, especially the military• Huge development projects opened opportunities for Huge development projects opened opportunities for

the business people who had connections the business people who had connections with the regimewith the regime


Introduction: Iraq-Iran WarIntroduction: Iraq-Iran WarIntroduction: Iraq-Iran WarIntroduction: Iraq-Iran War

• Foreign currency reserve over $35 BillionForeign currency reserve over $35 Billion• Drop in oil revenues with increase in war Drop in oil revenues with increase in war expenditureexpenditure• Foreign dept by end of war in 1988: $80 BillionForeign dept by end of war in 1988: $80 Billion• Abandonment of development projectsAbandonment of development projects• Massive layoffs in industry and agriculture Massive layoffs in industry and agriculture workforceworkforce• Privatization: selling of 70 large factories and most Privatization: selling of 70 large factories and most of of agricultural land to private sectoragricultural land to private sector• Infrastructure in need of repairInfrastructure in need of repair

• Foreign currency reserve over $35 BillionForeign currency reserve over $35 Billion• Drop in oil revenues with increase in war Drop in oil revenues with increase in war expenditureexpenditure• Foreign dept by end of war in 1988: $80 BillionForeign dept by end of war in 1988: $80 Billion• Abandonment of development projectsAbandonment of development projects• Massive layoffs in industry and agriculture Massive layoffs in industry and agriculture workforceworkforce• Privatization: selling of 70 large factories and most Privatization: selling of 70 large factories and most of of agricultural land to private sectoragricultural land to private sector• Infrastructure in need of repairInfrastructure in need of repair


Introduction: Kuwait WarIntroduction: Kuwait WarIntroduction: Kuwait WarIntroduction: Kuwait War

• More of Iraq’s infrastructure was destroyed in six More of Iraq’s infrastructure was destroyed in six weeks of bombing than the 8 years of war with weeks of bombing than the 8 years of war with IranIran• Sanctions eroded what was left of the economic Sanctions eroded what was left of the economic base of the countrybase of the country• Severely harmed civiliansSeverely harmed civilians• Devaluated Dinar from ID1=$3 to ID1000=$1Devaluated Dinar from ID1=$3 to ID1000=$1• Increase in emigration of Iraqi brainIncrease in emigration of Iraqi brain• Rapid deterioration in the living standardsRapid deterioration in the living standards

• More of Iraq’s infrastructure was destroyed in six More of Iraq’s infrastructure was destroyed in six weeks of bombing than the 8 years of war with weeks of bombing than the 8 years of war with IranIran• Sanctions eroded what was left of the economic Sanctions eroded what was left of the economic base of the countrybase of the country• Severely harmed civiliansSeverely harmed civilians• Devaluated Dinar from ID1=$3 to ID1000=$1Devaluated Dinar from ID1=$3 to ID1000=$1• Increase in emigration of Iraqi brainIncrease in emigration of Iraqi brain• Rapid deterioration in the living standardsRapid deterioration in the living standards


Part 1: 2003 Change of RegimePart 1: 2003 Change of RegimePart 1: 2003 Change of RegimePart 1: 2003 Change of Regime

““Iraq is the world’s best known conflict, but the least Iraq is the world’s best known conflict, but the least well known humanitarian crisis”well known humanitarian crisis”Antonio Guterres, UN High Commissioner for RefugeesAntonio Guterres, UN High Commissioner for Refugees

• Iraq Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) 2004Iraq Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) 2004

““Iraq is the world’s best known conflict, but the least Iraq is the world’s best known conflict, but the least well known humanitarian crisis”well known humanitarian crisis”Antonio Guterres, UN High Commissioner for RefugeesAntonio Guterres, UN High Commissioner for Refugees

• Iraq Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) 2004Iraq Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) 2004


Acute Electricity ShortageAcute Electricity ShortageAcute Electricity ShortageAcute Electricity Shortage

• 58% of the population were deprived of stable 58% of the population were deprived of stable electricity supplyelectricity supply• Power cuts could last as much as 12 hoursPower cuts could last as much as 12 hours• One third of the population had alternate power One third of the population had alternate power supply such as home or street generatorssupply such as home or street generators• Power generation was reduced from the pre-war Power generation was reduced from the pre-war level of 3,958 MW to 500 MWlevel of 3,958 MW to 500 MW

• 58% of the population were deprived of stable 58% of the population were deprived of stable electricity supplyelectricity supply• Power cuts could last as much as 12 hoursPower cuts could last as much as 12 hours• One third of the population had alternate power One third of the population had alternate power supply such as home or street generatorssupply such as home or street generators• Power generation was reduced from the pre-war Power generation was reduced from the pre-war level of 3,958 MW to 500 MWlevel of 3,958 MW to 500 MW


Water and Sanitation ProblemsWater and Sanitation ProblemsWater and Sanitation ProblemsWater and Sanitation Problems

• 40% of population reported sewage flooding40% of population reported sewage flooding• 62% of population were dissatisfied with solid waste 62% of population were dissatisfied with solid waste

disposaldisposal• 54% of households have piped water, only 29% have 54% of households have piped water, only 29% have

stable supply of safe drinking waterstable supply of safe drinking water• Rural areas and the southern regions suffered the Rural areas and the southern regions suffered the mostmost

• 40% of population reported sewage flooding40% of population reported sewage flooding• 62% of population were dissatisfied with solid waste 62% of population were dissatisfied with solid waste

disposaldisposal• 54% of households have piped water, only 29% have 54% of households have piped water, only 29% have

stable supply of safe drinking waterstable supply of safe drinking water• Rural areas and the southern regions suffered the Rural areas and the southern regions suffered the mostmost


Economic HardshipEconomic HardshipEconomic HardshipEconomic Hardship

• 55% of families have a low economic status55% of families have a low economic status• 60% of population owned less than 8 durable goods60% of population owned less than 8 durable goods• 57% of population did not have proper employment57% of population did not have proper employment• 51% of families could not provide for one or more of: 51% of families could not provide for one or more of:

keeping house warm in winter, cool in keeping house warm in winter, cool in summer, changing furniture, buying second summer, changing furniture, buying second hand hand clothes, eating meat or chicken 3 times a clothes, eating meat or chicken 3 times a weekweek• 36% of households could not earn $60 a week36% of households could not earn $60 a week

• 55% of families have a low economic status55% of families have a low economic status• 60% of population owned less than 8 durable goods60% of population owned less than 8 durable goods• 57% of population did not have proper employment57% of population did not have proper employment• 51% of families could not provide for one or more of: 51% of families could not provide for one or more of:

keeping house warm in winter, cool in keeping house warm in winter, cool in summer, changing furniture, buying second summer, changing furniture, buying second hand hand clothes, eating meat or chicken 3 times a clothes, eating meat or chicken 3 times a weekweek• 36% of households could not earn $60 a week36% of households could not earn $60 a week


Decline of Education StandardsDecline of Education StandardsDecline of Education StandardsDecline of Education Standards

• 74% literacy in youth ages 15-24: higher than 74% literacy in youth ages 15-24: higher than average population, however lower than age average population, however lower than age group group 25-3425-34• 89% enrolment rate for boys versus 74% for girls89% enrolment rate for boys versus 74% for girls• North region which previously was lower than other North region which previously was lower than other

regions have become the best region in regions have become the best region in educational levelseducational levels

• 74% literacy in youth ages 15-24: higher than 74% literacy in youth ages 15-24: higher than average population, however lower than age average population, however lower than age group group 25-3425-34• 89% enrolment rate for boys versus 74% for girls89% enrolment rate for boys versus 74% for girls• North region which previously was lower than other North region which previously was lower than other

regions have become the best region in regions have become the best region in educational levelseducational levels


Serious Child MalnutritionSerious Child MalnutritionSerious Child MalnutritionSerious Child Malnutrition

• 12% of children between six months and five years 12% of children between six months and five years are underweightare underweight• 8% suffer from acute malnutrition8% suffer from acute malnutrition• 23% suffer from chronic malnutrition23% suffer from chronic malnutrition• South regions showed highest levels of South regions showed highest levels of malnourished childrenmalnourished children• 4% in north region: lowest regions but still high4% in north region: lowest regions but still high• Malnutrition linked to educational level of head of Malnutrition linked to educational level of head of household more than economic statushousehold more than economic status• Effectiveness of ration card systemEffectiveness of ration card system• Male and female children identical levelsMale and female children identical levels

• 12% of children between six months and five years 12% of children between six months and five years are underweightare underweight• 8% suffer from acute malnutrition8% suffer from acute malnutrition• 23% suffer from chronic malnutrition23% suffer from chronic malnutrition• South regions showed highest levels of South regions showed highest levels of malnourished childrenmalnourished children• 4% in north region: lowest regions but still high4% in north region: lowest regions but still high• Malnutrition linked to educational level of head of Malnutrition linked to educational level of head of household more than economic statushousehold more than economic status• Effectiveness of ration card systemEffectiveness of ration card system• Male and female children identical levelsMale and female children identical levels


IllnessIllnessIllnessIllness

• 14% of children under five were sick in two weeks 14% of children under five were sick in two weeks preceding survey and is higher (58%) in preceding survey and is higher (58%) in children children under one year of ageunder one year of age• Contamination of piped water is the cause of the Contamination of piped water is the cause of the many cases of water-borne diseasemany cases of water-borne disease• 15% chronic illness in men, 7% chronic illness in 15% chronic illness in men, 7% chronic illness in womenwomen• Problems mostly in age group 20-29, result of war Problems mostly in age group 20-29, result of war with Iranwith Iran• Considerable amounts in age groups 10-19 and 30-Considerable amounts in age groups 10-19 and 30-4949• Illness related to 2003 showed more incidence in Illness related to 2003 showed more incidence in children under 9 than age group 20-29children under 9 than age group 20-29

• 14% of children under five were sick in two weeks 14% of children under five were sick in two weeks preceding survey and is higher (58%) in preceding survey and is higher (58%) in children children under one year of ageunder one year of age• Contamination of piped water is the cause of the Contamination of piped water is the cause of the many cases of water-borne diseasemany cases of water-borne disease• 15% chronic illness in men, 7% chronic illness in 15% chronic illness in men, 7% chronic illness in womenwomen• Problems mostly in age group 20-29, result of war Problems mostly in age group 20-29, result of war with Iranwith Iran• Considerable amounts in age groups 10-19 and 30-Considerable amounts in age groups 10-19 and 30-4949• Illness related to 2003 showed more incidence in Illness related to 2003 showed more incidence in children under 9 than age group 20-29children under 9 than age group 20-29


HousingHousingHousingHousing

• Few squatter houses in 2004 in Iraqi citiesFew squatter houses in 2004 in Iraqi cities• Some improvised houses found in rural areas in Some improvised houses found in rural areas in Wasit, Maysan, and KurdistanWasit, Maysan, and Kurdistan• High level of house ownershipHigh level of house ownership• High level of crowding, more in rural areasHigh level of crowding, more in rural areas• Crowding related to the economic status of the Crowding related to the economic status of the familyfamily

• Few squatter houses in 2004 in Iraqi citiesFew squatter houses in 2004 in Iraqi cities• Some improvised houses found in rural areas in Some improvised houses found in rural areas in Wasit, Maysan, and KurdistanWasit, Maysan, and Kurdistan• High level of house ownershipHigh level of house ownership• High level of crowding, more in rural areasHigh level of crowding, more in rural areas• Crowding related to the economic status of the Crowding related to the economic status of the familyfamily


Summary of Living Conditions in 2004Summary of Living Conditions in 2004Summary of Living Conditions in 2004Summary of Living Conditions in 2004

• Serious problems in supply of basic infrastructure Serious problems in supply of basic infrastructure services (water, electricity)services (water, electricity)• Widespread of long-term economic hardshipsWidespread of long-term economic hardships• Serious child malnutritionSerious child malnutrition• Stalled education achievementsStalled education achievements• Economy in transition with an increase in private Economy in transition with an increase in private sector and self-employmentsector and self-employment• Differences among regions: the south worst offDifferences among regions: the south worst off

• Serious problems in supply of basic infrastructure Serious problems in supply of basic infrastructure services (water, electricity)services (water, electricity)• Widespread of long-term economic hardshipsWidespread of long-term economic hardships• Serious child malnutritionSerious child malnutrition• Stalled education achievementsStalled education achievements• Economy in transition with an increase in private Economy in transition with an increase in private sector and self-employmentsector and self-employment• Differences among regions: the south worst offDifferences among regions: the south worst off


Post-Samarra IraqPost-Samarra IraqPost-Samarra IraqPost-Samarra Iraq

• Core of the political crisisCore of the political crisis• Power sharingPower sharing• Distribution of National WealthDistribution of National Wealth• Review of the ConstitutionReview of the Constitution

• Bombing of Askari shrine in Samarra marked the Bombing of Askari shrine in Samarra marked the beginning of unprecedented sectarian beginning of unprecedented sectarian violence violence in Iraqin Iraq

• Core of the political crisisCore of the political crisis• Power sharingPower sharing• Distribution of National WealthDistribution of National Wealth• Review of the ConstitutionReview of the Constitution

• Bombing of Askari shrine in Samarra marked the Bombing of Askari shrine in Samarra marked the beginning of unprecedented sectarian beginning of unprecedented sectarian violence violence in Iraqin Iraq


New Dimensions in DisplacementNew Dimensions in DisplacementNew Dimensions in DisplacementNew Dimensions in Displacement

• Pre-2003 displacement in Iraq:Pre-2003 displacement in Iraq:• Displacement of KurdsDisplacement of Kurds• Forced displacement during the Iraq-Iran warForced displacement during the Iraq-Iran war• Emigration due to discriminatory practices, Emigration due to discriminatory practices, oppression, economic hardshipoppression, economic hardship

• Increase in size of displacement, many-folds after Increase in size of displacement, many-folds after Samarra bombingSamarra bombing

• Pre-2003 displacement in Iraq:Pre-2003 displacement in Iraq:• Displacement of KurdsDisplacement of Kurds• Forced displacement during the Iraq-Iran warForced displacement during the Iraq-Iran war• Emigration due to discriminatory practices, Emigration due to discriminatory practices, oppression, economic hardshipoppression, economic hardship

• Increase in size of displacement, many-folds after Increase in size of displacement, many-folds after Samarra bombingSamarra bombing


IDP Numbers: UNHCRIDP Numbers: UNHCRIDP Numbers: UNHCRIDP Numbers: UNHCR

• Difficulty in number of IDPsDifficulty in number of IDPs• Most IDPs do not live in campsMost IDPs do not live in camps• Many IDPs do not registerMany IDPs do not register• Difficulty to survey displacement areasDifficulty to survey displacement areas• Insufficient national capacitiesInsufficient national capacities

• UN IDP figures:UN IDP figures:• UNHCR: 148,000 in the period 2003-2005UNHCR: 148,000 in the period 2003-2005

• Difficulty in number of IDPsDifficulty in number of IDPs• Most IDPs do not live in campsMost IDPs do not live in camps• Many IDPs do not registerMany IDPs do not register• Difficulty to survey displacement areasDifficulty to survey displacement areas• Insufficient national capacitiesInsufficient national capacities

• UN IDP figures:UN IDP figures:• UNHCR: 148,000 in the period 2003-2005UNHCR: 148,000 in the period 2003-2005

Internally Displaced People in Iraq, September Internally Displaced People in Iraq, September 20072007

Northern Governorates 800,900

Central Governorates 740,500

Southern Governorates 714,600

Total 2,256,000


IDP Numbers: Ministry of Displaced and MigrationIDP Numbers: Ministry of Displaced and MigrationIDP Numbers: Ministry of Displaced and MigrationIDP Numbers: Ministry of Displaced and Migration

•MoDM IDP figures: 999,772 (163,574 families) in MoDM IDP figures: 999,772 (163,574 families) in November 2007November 2007• 36% of IDPs are in Baghdad36% of IDPs are in Baghdad• 12%-15% of Baghdad’s population have been 12%-15% of Baghdad’s population have been displaceddisplaced


IDPs in BaghdadIDPs in BaghdadIDPs in BaghdadIDPs in Baghdad


Ethnicity Distribution in IraqEthnicity Distribution in IraqEthnicity Distribution in IraqEthnicity Distribution in Iraq


IDPs Living Conditions: ShelterIDPs Living Conditions: ShelterIDPs Living Conditions: ShelterIDPs Living Conditions: Shelter

• IDPs requirements beyond capacity of government IDPs requirements beyond capacity of government at federal and governorate levelsat federal and governorate levels• IDPs movement are restricted in governorates of IDPs movement are restricted in governorates of Kurdistan and KirkukKurdistan and Kirkuk• Biggest problem for IDPs is to find shelterBiggest problem for IDPs is to find shelter• MoDM implemented only two camps in Baghdad and MoDM implemented only two camps in Baghdad and

12 others in remaining governorates12 others in remaining governorates

• IDPs requirements beyond capacity of government IDPs requirements beyond capacity of government at federal and governorate levelsat federal and governorate levels• IDPs movement are restricted in governorates of IDPs movement are restricted in governorates of Kurdistan and KirkukKurdistan and Kirkuk• Biggest problem for IDPs is to find shelterBiggest problem for IDPs is to find shelter• MoDM implemented only two camps in Baghdad and MoDM implemented only two camps in Baghdad and

12 others in remaining governorates12 others in remaining governorates


IDPs Living Conditions: FoodIDPs Living Conditions: FoodIDPs Living Conditions: FoodIDPs Living Conditions: Food

• IOM shows that 70% of IDPs in Anbar, Baghdad, IOM shows that 70% of IDPs in Anbar, Baghdad, Najaf, and Dhi Qar are not receiving PDS Najaf, and Dhi Qar are not receiving PDS rationsrations• Lost of livelihood resulted in greater dependence on Lost of livelihood resulted in greater dependence on

the ration cardthe ration card• Few families were issued special ration cardsFew families were issued special ration cards

• IOM shows that 70% of IDPs in Anbar, Baghdad, IOM shows that 70% of IDPs in Anbar, Baghdad, Najaf, and Dhi Qar are not receiving PDS Najaf, and Dhi Qar are not receiving PDS rationsrations• Lost of livelihood resulted in greater dependence on Lost of livelihood resulted in greater dependence on

the ration cardthe ration card• Few families were issued special ration cardsFew families were issued special ration cards


IDPs Living Conditions: HealthIDPs Living Conditions: HealthIDPs Living Conditions: HealthIDPs Living Conditions: Health

• IOM study shows that serious health problems IOM study shows that serious health problems among IDPsamong IDPs• Few health facilities available, mostly in bad shapeFew health facilities available, mostly in bad shape• Percentages of IDPs with medical problemsPercentages of IDPs with medical problems

• IOM study shows that serious health problems IOM study shows that serious health problems among IDPsamong IDPs• Few health facilities available, mostly in bad shapeFew health facilities available, mostly in bad shape• Percentages of IDPs with medical problemsPercentages of IDPs with medical problems

Salahuddin 15%

Kerbala 19%

Maysan 29%

Anbar 34%

Diyala 52%

Muthana 59%

Babil 61%

Kirkuk 73%

Wasit 96%


IDPs Living Conditions: SchoolingIDPs Living Conditions: SchoolingIDPs Living Conditions: SchoolingIDPs Living Conditions: Schooling

• Great difficulties in resuming schooling:Great difficulties in resuming schooling:• Schooling not a priority under displacement Schooling not a priority under displacement

conditionsconditions• Difficulty in obtaining transfer documentationDifficulty in obtaining transfer documentation• No school near campNo school near camp• Children to help with income generationChildren to help with income generation

• Great difficulties in resuming schooling:Great difficulties in resuming schooling:• Schooling not a priority under displacement Schooling not a priority under displacement

conditionsconditions• Difficulty in obtaining transfer documentationDifficulty in obtaining transfer documentation• No school near campNo school near camp• Children to help with income generationChildren to help with income generation


Displacement of MinoritiesDisplacement of MinoritiesDisplacement of MinoritiesDisplacement of Minorities

• Minorities migrated to Kurdistan or outside IraqMinorities migrated to Kurdistan or outside Iraq• Personally subjected to violence or places of Personally subjected to violence or places of worship attackedworship attacked• Discrimination increased after Samarra bombingDiscrimination increased after Samarra bombing• Minorities such as Christians, Sabi’a, Izidis in Minorities such as Christians, Sabi’a, Izidis in Baghdad, Basrah, Mosul, Kirkuk, and Diyala Baghdad, Basrah, Mosul, Kirkuk, and Diyala were were kidnapped, attacked, and requested to kidnapped, attacked, and requested to change change religionreligion

• Minorities migrated to Kurdistan or outside IraqMinorities migrated to Kurdistan or outside Iraq• Personally subjected to violence or places of Personally subjected to violence or places of worship attackedworship attacked• Discrimination increased after Samarra bombingDiscrimination increased after Samarra bombing• Minorities such as Christians, Sabi’a, Izidis in Minorities such as Christians, Sabi’a, Izidis in Baghdad, Basrah, Mosul, Kirkuk, and Diyala Baghdad, Basrah, Mosul, Kirkuk, and Diyala were were kidnapped, attacked, and requested to kidnapped, attacked, and requested to change change religionreligion


Displacement: MigrationDisplacement: MigrationDisplacement: MigrationDisplacement: Migration

• Nearly 2 Million Iraqis are displaced outside IraqNearly 2 Million Iraqis are displaced outside Iraq• Most have migrated to Syria and JordanMost have migrated to Syria and Jordan• Ability of neighbouring countries to accommodate Ability of neighbouring countries to accommodate such large numbers is reaching fatiguesuch large numbers is reaching fatigue• Entry restrictions to these countries has made it Entry restrictions to these countries has made it difficult for Iraqis to find a save havendifficult for Iraqis to find a save haven

• Nearly 2 Million Iraqis are displaced outside IraqNearly 2 Million Iraqis are displaced outside Iraq• Most have migrated to Syria and JordanMost have migrated to Syria and Jordan• Ability of neighbouring countries to accommodate Ability of neighbouring countries to accommodate such large numbers is reaching fatiguesuch large numbers is reaching fatigue• Entry restrictions to these countries has made it Entry restrictions to these countries has made it difficult for Iraqis to find a save havendifficult for Iraqis to find a save haven

Displaced Iraqis in the Region

Syria 1.2 – 1.4 Million

Jordan 500,000 – 750,000

Egypt Up to 70,000Iran 57,000Lebanon 20,000-40,000Turkey 10,000Gulf States 200,000



• Iraqis are the leading nationality seeking assylum in Iraqis are the leading nationality seeking assylum in industrialized countriesindustrialized countries

• 22,200 applied for asylum in 2006 and 19,800 in first 22,200 applied for asylum in 2006 and 19,800 in first six months of 2007six months of 2007

• Iraqis are the leading nationality seeking assylum in Iraqis are the leading nationality seeking assylum in industrialized countriesindustrialized countries

• 22,200 applied for asylum in 2006 and 19,800 in first 22,200 applied for asylum in 2006 and 19,800 in first six months of 2007six months of 2007


Displacement: Iraqi Refugees around the worldDisplacement: Iraqi Refugees around the worldDisplacement: Iraqi Refugees around the worldDisplacement: Iraqi Refugees around the world

Germany 36,200UK 22,000Netherlands 21,800Sweden 23,600Australia 11,100Denmark 9,900Norway 8,700

US 19,800Switzerland 5,000Canada 4,000Finland 1,600Italy 1,300France 1,300Hungary 1,200

Bulgaria 1,200Austria 1,200Greece 820New Zealand 820Armenia 460Romania 450Ireland 340



• Shortage of humanitarian resources to care for Shortage of humanitarian resources to care for refugees in Jordan and Syriarefugees in Jordan and Syria• Iraqis could not work legally in SyriaIraqis could not work legally in Syria• Growing number of girls and women are forced into Growing number of girls and women are forced into

sex trade to earn money for livingsex trade to earn money for living• In Jordan only 30% of Iraqis have workIn Jordan only 30% of Iraqis have work• Majority of Iraqis in Jordan are middle class that live Majority of Iraqis in Jordan are middle class that live

out of savings or remittanceout of savings or remittance• Iraqis in Jordan are becoming increasing vulnerable Iraqis in Jordan are becoming increasing vulnerable

due to depletion of resourcesdue to depletion of resources

• Shortage of humanitarian resources to care for Shortage of humanitarian resources to care for refugees in Jordan and Syriarefugees in Jordan and Syria• Iraqis could not work legally in SyriaIraqis could not work legally in Syria• Growing number of girls and women are forced into Growing number of girls and women are forced into

sex trade to earn money for livingsex trade to earn money for living• In Jordan only 30% of Iraqis have workIn Jordan only 30% of Iraqis have work• Majority of Iraqis in Jordan are middle class that live Majority of Iraqis in Jordan are middle class that live

out of savings or remittanceout of savings or remittance• Iraqis in Jordan are becoming increasing vulnerable Iraqis in Jordan are becoming increasing vulnerable

due to depletion of resourcesdue to depletion of resources


Civilian ProtectionCivilian ProtectionCivilian ProtectionCivilian Protection

• The sheer violence directed against Iraqi civilians is The sheer violence directed against Iraqi civilians is unparalleled in any emergency in the worldunparalleled in any emergency in the world

• Perpetrators of violence are: armed groups, criminal Perpetrators of violence are: armed groups, criminal gangs, extremists, militias, as well as gangs, extremists, militias, as well as

operations by operations by security and military forcessecurity and military forces• The majority of casualties are innocent civiliansThe majority of casualties are innocent civilians

• The sheer violence directed against Iraqi civilians is The sheer violence directed against Iraqi civilians is unparalleled in any emergency in the worldunparalleled in any emergency in the world

• Perpetrators of violence are: armed groups, criminal Perpetrators of violence are: armed groups, criminal gangs, extremists, militias, as well as gangs, extremists, militias, as well as

operations by operations by security and military forcessecurity and military forces• The majority of casualties are innocent civiliansThe majority of casualties are innocent civilians


War Related DeathWar Related DeathWar Related DeathWar Related Death

• In the aftermath of 2003 invasion:In the aftermath of 2003 invasion:•18,000 to 29,000 Iraqis have died (ILCS, 18,000 to 29,000 Iraqis have died (ILCS,

Lancet: 98,000)Lancet: 98,000)• 12% of deaths were children12% of deaths were children• Orphanage measured 6% than JordanOrphanage measured 6% than Jordan

• The 2006 Lancet report shows:The 2006 Lancet report shows:• Violent death has reached 601,000 (with lower Violent death has reached 601,000 (with lower

bound 95% confidence interval 426,000 bound 95% confidence interval 426,000 violent violent deathsdeaths• 1000 Iraqis killed every single day in the first half 1000 Iraqis killed every single day in the first half

of 2006. Less than tenth of them being of 2006. Less than tenth of them being noticed noticed by public serveillance mechanisms by public serveillance mechanisms (UN: total (UN: total recorded civilian deaths in 2006 recorded civilian deaths in 2006 is34,452)is34,452)• 800,000 suffered blast wounds800,000 suffered blast wounds• Over 7% of adult male population killed in Over 7% of adult male population killed in violenceviolence

• In the aftermath of 2003 invasion:In the aftermath of 2003 invasion:•18,000 to 29,000 Iraqis have died (ILCS, 18,000 to 29,000 Iraqis have died (ILCS,

Lancet: 98,000)Lancet: 98,000)• 12% of deaths were children12% of deaths were children• Orphanage measured 6% than JordanOrphanage measured 6% than Jordan

• The 2006 Lancet report shows:The 2006 Lancet report shows:• Violent death has reached 601,000 (with lower Violent death has reached 601,000 (with lower

bound 95% confidence interval 426,000 bound 95% confidence interval 426,000 violent violent deathsdeaths• 1000 Iraqis killed every single day in the first half 1000 Iraqis killed every single day in the first half

of 2006. Less than tenth of them being of 2006. Less than tenth of them being noticed noticed by public serveillance mechanisms by public serveillance mechanisms (UN: total (UN: total recorded civilian deaths in 2006 recorded civilian deaths in 2006 is34,452)is34,452)• 800,000 suffered blast wounds800,000 suffered blast wounds• Over 7% of adult male population killed in Over 7% of adult male population killed in violenceviolence



(Lancet findings continued) (Lancet findings continued) • Number of civilians killed by coalition increasedNumber of civilians killed by coalition increased

(Lancet findings continued) (Lancet findings continued) • Number of civilians killed by coalition increasedNumber of civilians killed by coalition increased



• Civilian fatalities increased since May 2003 to reach Civilian fatalities increased since May 2003 to reach a peak of 3,700 in November 2006a peak of 3,700 in November 2006

• Civilian fatalities increased since May 2003 to reach Civilian fatalities increased since May 2003 to reach a peak of 3,700 in November 2006a peak of 3,700 in November 2006


BombingsBombingsBombingsBombings

• Multiple fatality bombings: 1,613 (35% suicide)Multiple fatality bombings: 1,613 (35% suicide)• Multiple fatality bombings: 1,613 (35% suicide)Multiple fatality bombings: 1,613 (35% suicide)


Brain SlainBrain SlainBrain SlainBrain Slain

• Many educated people had to leave the country prior Many educated people had to leave the country prior to 2003 war because of lack of freedoms, to 2003 war because of lack of freedoms,

political oppression, and economic hardshippolitical oppression, and economic hardship• After 2003 university professors and doctors were After 2003 university professors and doctors were specifically targetedspecifically targeted• Out of the 23,000 registered doctors, 17,000 left the Out of the 23,000 registered doctors, 17,000 left the

country after 2003, 2000 were killed, 250 country after 2003, 2000 were killed, 250 kidnappedkidnapped

• Many educated people had to leave the country prior Many educated people had to leave the country prior to 2003 war because of lack of freedoms, to 2003 war because of lack of freedoms,

political oppression, and economic hardshippolitical oppression, and economic hardship• After 2003 university professors and doctors were After 2003 university professors and doctors were specifically targetedspecifically targeted• Out of the 23,000 registered doctors, 17,000 left the Out of the 23,000 registered doctors, 17,000 left the

country after 2003, 2000 were killed, 250 country after 2003, 2000 were killed, 250 kidnappedkidnapped


Crime: Looting and KidnappingCrime: Looting and KidnappingCrime: Looting and KidnappingCrime: Looting and Kidnapping

• Looting crimes began 9 April 2003 with the fall of Looting crimes began 9 April 2003 with the fall of BaghdadBaghdad• Looting targeted vital public institutions including Looting targeted vital public institutions including schools, libraries, hospitals, electricity schools, libraries, hospitals, electricity installationsinstallations• 50,000 irreplaceable artifacts dating back to 5000 50,000 irreplaceable artifacts dating back to 5000 years were stolen from the National Museumyears were stolen from the National Museum

• Looting crimes began 9 April 2003 with the fall of Looting crimes began 9 April 2003 with the fall of BaghdadBaghdad• Looting targeted vital public institutions including Looting targeted vital public institutions including schools, libraries, hospitals, electricity schools, libraries, hospitals, electricity installationsinstallations• 50,000 irreplaceable artifacts dating back to 5000 50,000 irreplaceable artifacts dating back to 5000 years were stolen from the National Museumyears were stolen from the National Museum


Crime: Looting the National MuseumCrime: Looting the National MuseumCrime: Looting the National MuseumCrime: Looting the National Museum


Crime: Looting and KidnappingCrime: Looting and KidnappingCrime: Looting and KidnappingCrime: Looting and Kidnapping

• Multinational Forces only protected Ministry of Oil Multinational Forces only protected Ministry of Oil and Ministry of Interiorand Ministry of Interior

• Kidnapping became the most profiting profession in Kidnapping became the most profiting profession in the countrythe country

• Brookings: 40 kidnappings per dayBrookings: 40 kidnappings per day• Ministry of Interior: 5,000 kidnapped Dec 03 – Apr 05Ministry of Interior: 5,000 kidnapped Dec 03 – Apr 05• Ransoms start $250,000, negotiated to $30,000Ransoms start $250,000, negotiated to $30,000

• Multinational Forces only protected Ministry of Oil Multinational Forces only protected Ministry of Oil and Ministry of Interiorand Ministry of Interior

• Kidnapping became the most profiting profession in Kidnapping became the most profiting profession in the countrythe country

• Brookings: 40 kidnappings per dayBrookings: 40 kidnappings per day• Ministry of Interior: 5,000 kidnapped Dec 03 – Apr 05Ministry of Interior: 5,000 kidnapped Dec 03 – Apr 05• Ransoms start $250,000, negotiated to $30,000Ransoms start $250,000, negotiated to $30,000


PrisonsPrisonsPrisonsPrisons

• Ministry of Human Rights: 20,000 prisoners held with Ministry of Human Rights: 20,000 prisoners held with MNF, 21,000 in government prisonsMNF, 21,000 in government prisons

• Brookings: 25,100 with MNF, ~37,000 with Brookings: 25,100 with MNF, ~37,000 with governmentgovernment• Prison problems: overcrowding, lack of judicial Prison problems: overcrowding, lack of judicial oversightoversight• Many held for long periods. Reports of abuseMany held for long periods. Reports of abuse• Recent improvements, with promise to allow Recent improvements, with promise to allow inspectioninspection

• Ministry of Human Rights: 20,000 prisoners held with Ministry of Human Rights: 20,000 prisoners held with MNF, 21,000 in government prisonsMNF, 21,000 in government prisons

• Brookings: 25,100 with MNF, ~37,000 with Brookings: 25,100 with MNF, ~37,000 with governmentgovernment• Prison problems: overcrowding, lack of judicial Prison problems: overcrowding, lack of judicial oversightoversight• Many held for long periods. Reports of abuseMany held for long periods. Reports of abuse• Recent improvements, with promise to allow Recent improvements, with promise to allow inspectioninspection


Through the eyes of IraqisThrough the eyes of IraqisThrough the eyes of IraqisThrough the eyes of Iraqis

• Many surveys and assessments conducted since Many surveys and assessments conducted since 20042004• Widely varying results makes it hard to have an Widely varying results makes it hard to have an indication about trendsindication about trends• Difficulty with conducting surveysDifficulty with conducting surveys

• Limitations in national capacitiesLimitations in national capacities• Precarious security situationPrecarious security situation

• Many surveys and assessments conducted since Many surveys and assessments conducted since 20042004• Widely varying results makes it hard to have an Widely varying results makes it hard to have an indication about trendsindication about trends• Difficulty with conducting surveysDifficulty with conducting surveys

• Limitations in national capacitiesLimitations in national capacities• Precarious security situationPrecarious security situation



• Polls to measure perceptions about situation in IraqPolls to measure perceptions about situation in Iraq• Central Organization for Statisitics and Central Organization for Statisitics and Information Technology (COSIT) pollInformation Technology (COSIT) poll• D3 Systems poll for BBC, ABC, ARD TV, USA D3 Systems poll for BBC, ABC, ARD TV, USA

TodayToday• Both polls conducted in Feb/March 2007Both polls conducted in Feb/March 2007

• Polls to measure perceptions about situation in IraqPolls to measure perceptions about situation in Iraq• Central Organization for Statisitics and Central Organization for Statisitics and Information Technology (COSIT) pollInformation Technology (COSIT) poll• D3 Systems poll for BBC, ABC, ARD TV, USA D3 Systems poll for BBC, ABC, ARD TV, USA

TodayToday• Both polls conducted in Feb/March 2007Both polls conducted in Feb/March 2007



Q: Overall, how would you say Q: Overall, how would you say things are goingthings are going in in your life these days? Would you say things are very your life these days? Would you say things are very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad?good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad?

Q: Overall, how would you say Q: Overall, how would you say things are goingthings are going in in your life these days? Would you say things are very your life these days? Would you say things are very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad?good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad?

2007 2005 2004

% % %

Very Good 8 22 13

Quite Good 31 49 57

Quite Bad 32 18 14

Very Bad 28 11 15

Refused/don’t know - 1 1



Q: What is your expectation for how things overall in Q: What is your expectation for how things overall in your life will be in your life will be in a year from nowa year from now? Will things be ? Will things be much better, somewhat better, about the same, much better, somewhat better, about the same, somewhat worse, or much worse?somewhat worse, or much worse?

Q: What is your expectation for how things overall in Q: What is your expectation for how things overall in your life will be in your life will be in a year from nowa year from now? Will things be ? Will things be much better, somewhat better, about the same, much better, somewhat better, about the same, somewhat worse, or much worse?somewhat worse, or much worse?

2007 2005 2004

% % %

Much Better 12 35 37

Somewhat Better 23 29 34

About the Same 32 14 9

Somewhat Worse 25 7 3



Q: What is the single Q: What is the single biggest problembiggest problem facing your life facing your life

these days?these days? Q: What is the single Q: What is the single biggest problembiggest problem facing your life facing your life

these days?these days?

2007 2005 2004

% % %

Net: Security issues 48 18 25

Net: Political/military issues 13 n.a. 2

Net: Economic issues 17 15 21

Net: social issues 22 16 18

Net: Personal issues 1 7 4

Other - 4 2

No problem - 31 18

No opinion - 9 8



Q: Do you think your Q: Do you think your children will have a better lifechildren will have a better life

than you, worse, or about the same?than you, worse, or about the same? Q: Do you think your Q: Do you think your children will have a better lifechildren will have a better life

than you, worse, or about the same?than you, worse, or about the same?

%

Better 42

Worse 37

About the Same 21

Refused/don’t know -



Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate rate security situationsecurity situation as very good, quite good, quite as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? bad, or very bad?

Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate rate security situationsecurity situation as very good, quite good, quite as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? bad, or very bad?

2007 2005 2004

% % %

Very good 17 31 20

Quite good 30 30 29

Quite bad 21 17 21

Very bad 32 21 29




Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate rate availability of jobsavailability of jobs as very good, quite good, quite as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? bad, or very bad?

Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate rate availability of jobsavailability of jobs as very good, quite good, quite as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? bad, or very bad?

2007 2005 2004

% % %

Very good 3 11 7

Quite good 17 27 19

Quite bad 44 23 23

Very bad 35 34 46




Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate rate supply of electricitysupply of electricity as very good, quite good, as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? quite bad, or very bad?

Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate rate supply of electricitysupply of electricity as very good, quite good, as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? quite bad, or very bad?

2007 2005 2004

% % %

Very good 2 11 8

Quite good 11 35 27

Quite bad 37 30 28

Very bad 51 24 37




Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate rate availability of clean wateravailability of clean water as very good, quite as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? good, quite bad, or very bad?

Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate rate availability of clean wateravailability of clean water as very good, quite as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? good, quite bad, or very bad?

2007 2005 2004

% % %

Very good 9 19 20

Quite good 22 39 31

Quite bad 35 27 22

Very bad 34 15 26

Refused/don’t know - - 1



Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate rate availability medical careavailability medical care as very good, quite good, as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? quite bad, or very bad?

Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate rate availability medical careavailability medical care as very good, quite good, as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? quite bad, or very bad?

2007 2005 2004

% % %

Very good 8 27 17

Quite good 23 35 34

Quite bad 35 23 24

Very bad 34 13 22




Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate rate local schoolslocal schools as very good, quite good, quite bad, as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? or very bad?

Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate rate local schoolslocal schools as very good, quite good, quite bad, as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? or very bad?

2007 2005 2004

% % %

Very good 12 43 37

Quite good 31 31 35

Quite bad 35 17 15

Very bad 21 7 11




Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate rate availability of basic household itemsavailability of basic household items as very as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad?

Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate rate availability of basic household itemsavailability of basic household items as very as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad?

2007 2005 2004

% % %

Very good 8 22 18

Quite good 30 38 38

Quite bad 39 23 24

Very bad 23 15 17




Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate rate availability fuel for cooking or drivingavailability fuel for cooking or driving as very as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad?

Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate rate availability fuel for cooking or drivingavailability fuel for cooking or driving as very as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad?

%

Very good 1

Quite good 11

Quite bad 40

Very bad 48




Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate rate ability to move safelyability to move safely as very good, quite good, as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? quite bad, or very bad?

Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate rate ability to move safelyability to move safely as very good, quite good, as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? quite bad, or very bad?

%

Very good 8

Quite good 16

Quite bad 40

Very bad 35




Q: For each item I read, please tell me if it has or has Q: For each item I read, please tell me if it has or has not not occurredoccurred nearby here? nearby here?

Q: For each item I read, please tell me if it has or has Q: For each item I read, please tell me if it has or has not not occurredoccurred nearby here? nearby here?

Have occurred nearby here

Have not occurred nearby here

Refuse/ don’t know

% % %

Car bombs, suicide attacks 32 68 -

Snipers, crossfire 30 70 -

Fighting among sectarian factions 25 75 -

Kidnappings for ransom 40 60 -

Fighting between Iraqi government and anti-government forces

34 66 -

Unnecessary violence against citizens by US or coalition forces

44 55 -

Unnecessary violence against citizens by the Iraqi police

24 76 -

Unnecessary violence against citizens by the Iraqi Army

24 76 -

Unnecessary violence against citizens by local militia forces

31 69 -



Q: Have you or an immediate family member—by Q: Have you or an immediate family member—by which I mean someone living in this household –been which I mean someone living in this household –been physically harmedphysically harmed by the violence that is occurring in by the violence that is occurring in

the country at this time?the country at this time?

Q: Have you or an immediate family member—by Q: Have you or an immediate family member—by which I mean someone living in this household –been which I mean someone living in this household –been physically harmedphysically harmed by the violence that is occurring in by the violence that is occurring in

the country at this time?the country at this time?

%

Yes 17

No 83




Q: How concerned are you that you or someone living Q: How concerned are you that you or someone living in this household might in the future in this household might in the future become a victimbecome a victim of the violence that is occurring in the country? Is of the violence that is occurring in the country? Is that something that worries you a great deal, that something that worries you a great deal, somewhat, not so much, or hardly at all?somewhat, not so much, or hardly at all?

Q: How concerned are you that you or someone living Q: How concerned are you that you or someone living in this household might in the future in this household might in the future become a victimbecome a victim of the violence that is occurring in the country? Is of the violence that is occurring in the country? Is that something that worries you a great deal, that something that worries you a great deal, somewhat, not so much, or hardly at all?somewhat, not so much, or hardly at all?

%

A Great Deal 64

Somewhat 22

Not So Much 9

Hardly At All 5




Q: In the last few days, have you experienced any of Q: In the last few days, have you experienced any of the following because of the situation in our country the following because of the situation in our country at the present time? If Yes: Have you at the present time? If Yes: Have you experiencedexperienced it a it a

great deal or somewhat?great deal or somewhat?

Q: In the last few days, have you experienced any of Q: In the last few days, have you experienced any of the following because of the situation in our country the following because of the situation in our country at the present time? If Yes: Have you at the present time? If Yes: Have you experiencedexperienced it a it a

great deal or somewhat?great deal or somewhat?

Yes, a great deal

Yes, somewhat

No Refused/

don’t know

% % % %

Trouble sleeping 36 40 25 -

Difficulty concentrating on your work or usual activities

31 41 28 -

Feelings of anger 36 46 18 -

Feelings of depression 37 40 23 -



Q: In order to Q: In order to avoid troubleavoid trouble, how often, if ever, have , how often, if ever, have you done any of the following over the past year? Is it you done any of the following over the past year? Is it

very often, quite often, not so often or never?very often, quite often, not so often or never?

Q: In order to Q: In order to avoid troubleavoid trouble, how often, if ever, have , how often, if ever, have you done any of the following over the past year? Is it you done any of the following over the past year? Is it

very often, quite often, not so often or never?very often, quite often, not so often or never? Very

often Quite often

Not so often

Never

Refuse/ don’t know

% % % % %

Avoiding going out of your home 18 33 27 22 -

Not sending your children to school 14 26 28 32 -

Avoiding passing/driving by police stations and other public buildings

20 35 25 20 -

Avoiding markets and other crowded areas

21 33 29 17 -

Avoiding checkpoints 29 36 14 20 -

Avoiding US and other coalition forces 46 35 10 9 -

Avoiding travel 21 33 29 18 -

Being careful about what you say about yourself to others

30 37 18 14 -

Avoiding going to work or to apply for work

17 26 29 28 -



Q: Who do you Q: Who do you blame the most for the violenceblame the most for the violence that is that is occurring in the country? occurring in the country?

Q: Who do you Q: Who do you blame the most for the violenceblame the most for the violence that is that is occurring in the country? occurring in the country?

%

The United States/coalition forces 31

President Bush 9

The Iraqi government 8

The Iraqi army 1

Iraqi police 1

Sunni militias/leaders 5

Shiite militias/leaders 6

Sectarian disputes 8

Al Qaeda/foreign jihadists 18

Common criminals 6

Iran 7

Other -




Q: Which of these would be your preference to have in Q: Which of these would be your preference to have in command of security in this areacommand of security in this area: the Iraqi police, the : the Iraqi police, the Iraqi army, coalition forces, local militia, or other Iraqi army, coalition forces, local militia, or other extra-legal armed forces?extra-legal armed forces?

Q: Which of these would be your preference to have in Q: Which of these would be your preference to have in command of security in this areacommand of security in this area: the Iraqi police, the : the Iraqi police, the Iraqi army, coalition forces, local militia, or other Iraqi army, coalition forces, local militia, or other extra-legal armed forces?extra-legal armed forces?

%

The Iraqi police 46

The Iraqi army 32

Coalition forces 9

Local militia 7

Other extra-legal armed forces

1

None 5




Q: There are areas of Iraq where in the past Sunnis Q: There are areas of Iraq where in the past Sunnis and Shiites lived together in the same mahallah. In and Shiites lived together in the same mahallah. In some of these areas people are now some of these areas people are now separating—separating—Sunnis moving to live among Sunnis only, Shiites Sunnis moving to live among Sunnis only, Shiites moving to live among Shiites onlymoving to live among Shiites only. Has this separating . Has this separating of people been happening in this mahallah, or not? of people been happening in this mahallah, or not? Would you say: Would you say:

Q: There are areas of Iraq where in the past Sunnis Q: There are areas of Iraq where in the past Sunnis and Shiites lived together in the same mahallah. In and Shiites lived together in the same mahallah. In some of these areas people are now some of these areas people are now separating—separating—Sunnis moving to live among Sunnis only, Shiites Sunnis moving to live among Sunnis only, Shiites moving to live among Shiites onlymoving to live among Shiites only. Has this separating . Has this separating of people been happening in this mahallah, or not? of people been happening in this mahallah, or not? Would you say: Would you say:

%

Yes, it has happened 14

No, this mahallah (neighborhood) has been mixed and remains so

38

No, this mahallah (neighborhood) has never been mixed

47




Q: Has this movement of people been mainly Q: Has this movement of people been mainly forcibleforcible, , or mainly voluntary?or mainly voluntary?

Q: Has this movement of people been mainly Q: Has this movement of people been mainly forcibleforcible, , or mainly voluntary?or mainly voluntary?

%

Mainly Forcible 81

Mainly voluntary 19




Q: Do you think the separation of people on sectarian Q: Do you think the separation of people on sectarian lines is a lines is a good thing or a bad thinggood thing or a bad thing for Iraq? for Iraq?

Q: Do you think the separation of people on sectarian Q: Do you think the separation of people on sectarian lines is a lines is a good thing or a bad thinggood thing or a bad thing for Iraq? for Iraq?

%

Good thing 6

Bad thing 94




Q: Thinking about your security, if you could do so, Q: Thinking about your security, if you could do so, would you movewould you move to a different area of the country, or to a different area of the country, or are you satisfied living in this location?are you satisfied living in this location?

Q: Thinking about your security, if you could do so, Q: Thinking about your security, if you could do so, would you movewould you move to a different area of the country, or to a different area of the country, or are you satisfied living in this location?are you satisfied living in this location?

%

Move to different area 19

I am satisfied living in this location

81




Q: Again with your security in mind, if you could do Q: Again with your security in mind, if you could do so, would you so, would you move to a different countrymove to a different country entirely, or entirely, or are you satisfied living in Iraq? are you satisfied living in Iraq?

Q: Again with your security in mind, if you could do Q: Again with your security in mind, if you could do so, would you so, would you move to a different countrymove to a different country entirely, or entirely, or are you satisfied living in Iraq? are you satisfied living in Iraq?

%

Move to another country 30

I am satisfied living in this location 70




Q: Do you personally think Iraq is or is not involved in Q: Do you personally think Iraq is or is not involved in a a civil warcivil war at this time? at this time?

Q: Do you personally think Iraq is or is not involved in Q: Do you personally think Iraq is or is not involved in a a civil warcivil war at this time? at this time?

%

Yes 42

No 56

Refused/don’t know 2



Q: Which of the following Q: Which of the following structuresstructures do you believe do you believe Iraq should have in the future?Iraq should have in the future?

Q: Which of the following Q: Which of the following structuresstructures do you believe do you believe Iraq should have in the future?Iraq should have in the future?

2007 2005 2004

% % %

One unified Iraq with a central government in Baghdad,

58 70 79

A group of regional states with their own regional governments and a federal government in Baghdad

28 18 14

A country divided into separate independent states

14 9 4




Q: There can be differences between the way Q: There can be differences between the way government is set up in a country, called the government is set up in a country, called the political political systemsystem. From the three options I am going to read to . From the three options I am going to read to you, which ONE do you think would be the best for you, which ONE do you think would be the best for Iraq now?Iraq now?

Q: There can be differences between the way Q: There can be differences between the way government is set up in a country, called the government is set up in a country, called the political political systemsystem. From the three options I am going to read to . From the three options I am going to read to you, which ONE do you think would be the best for you, which ONE do you think would be the best for Iraq now?Iraq now?

2007 2005 2004

% % %

Strong leader: a government headed by one man for life

34 26 28

Islamic state: where politicians rule according to religious principles

22 14 21

Democracy: a government with a chance for the leader to be replaced from time to time

43 57 49




Q: Who do you think Q: Who do you think currently controls thingscurrently controls things in our in our country; is it the Iraqi government, the United States, country; is it the Iraqi government, the United States, somebody else, or no one? somebody else, or no one?

Q: Who do you think Q: Who do you think currently controls thingscurrently controls things in our in our country; is it the Iraqi government, the United States, country; is it the Iraqi government, the United States, somebody else, or no one? somebody else, or no one?

2007 2005

% %

Iraqi Government 34 44

United States 59 24

Somebody else 4 17

No one controls things 3 6

Refused/don’t know - 9



Q: Since the war, how do you feel about the way in Q: Since the war, how do you feel about the way in which the which the United States and other Coalition forces United States and other Coalition forces have carried out their responsibilitieshave carried out their responsibilities in Iraq? Have in Iraq? Have they done a very good job, quite a good job, quite a they done a very good job, quite a good job, quite a bad job, or a very bad job?bad job, or a very bad job?

Q: Since the war, how do you feel about the way in Q: Since the war, how do you feel about the way in which the which the United States and other Coalition forces United States and other Coalition forces have carried out their responsibilitieshave carried out their responsibilities in Iraq? Have in Iraq? Have they done a very good job, quite a good job, quite a they done a very good job, quite a good job, quite a bad job, or a very bad job?bad job, or a very bad job?

2007 2005

% %

A Very Good Job 6 10

Quite a Good Job 18 27

Quite a Bad Job 30 19

A Very Bad Job 46 40

Refused/don’t know - 5



Q: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, Q: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the presence presence of Coalition forcesof Coalition forces in Iraq? in Iraq?

Q: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, Q: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the presence presence of Coalition forcesof Coalition forces in Iraq? in Iraq?

2007 2005 2004

% % %

Strongly Support 6 13 13

Somewhat Support 16 19 26

Somewhat Oppose 32 21 20

Strongly Oppose 46 44 31




Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Nouri Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Nouri Kamel Al-Maliki is handling his job as prime minister?Kamel Al-Maliki is handling his job as prime minister?

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Nouri Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Nouri Kamel Al-Maliki is handling his job as prime minister?Kamel Al-Maliki is handling his job as prime minister?

%

Approve 43

Disapprove 57




Thank youThank youThank youThank you

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