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ENHANCING IRAN’S HYDROCARBON ECONOMY
THROUGH ON PURPOSE OLEFINS
Iranian Petrochemical Value Chain
Summit
Paris, France, 26-27 April 2018
UOP Limited – Nigel Orchard
UOP Creates Knowledge for the Oil and Gas Industry
1
Better Economics Continuous Innovation Reliability Expertise
2,500
200 with PhDs
Engineers and scientists
• Process Technology
• Catalysts
• Adsorbents
• Equipment
• Services
UOP technology makes more than 60% of the world’s gasoline, 70% of its polyester and 90% of
biodegradable detergents, and processes more than 40% of its LNG
Petrochemicals Natural GasRefining Renewables
UOP technologies offer a
high return on investment
Continuous technology
improvement allows customer
operations to remain cutting edge
UOP technologies are among the
most widely proven in the world
UOP has a century-long record
leading technology development
for the oil and gas industry
Largestprocess licensing
organization
in the
world
31out of 36refining technologies
in use today were developed by
UOP
800+R&D employees
3,000+ Active patents
© 2016 by UOP Limited. All rights reserved.
Global Olefin Markets Grow Strongly
• Ethylene annual demand growth, 3.4%
• Ethylene demand and production aligned
over period with gradual cracker projects
and:
• NGL (shale) cracker feedstock usage to
continue
• ethylene-to-propylene ratio suppresses
propylene supply from conventional cracking
• Propylene annual demand growth, 3.9% -
More applications than ethylene eg:
- Polypropylene, Acrylonitrile, Acrylic Acid,
Propylene Oxide, Propylene Glycol
• On-purpose technology growing at 9.4%
(avg) to reach ~30% of supply by 2026
Higher propylene growth being met by on purpose technologies
2
Source: International Market Consultant
Iran's Hydrocarbon Economy
Currently available Gas for export is only ~$4.5bn
3
Crude Oil
~3.8mbd production
Natural Gas
~225BCM/Yr
Production
(~300BCM/Yr
capacity)
Condensate
~0.7mbd production
Domestic ~ 210Bn CM/Yr
Gasoline &
Diesel
LPG
Fuel Oil
1.0mbd
0.25mbd, 0.21mbd export ~$2.9Bn
0.32mbd
Naphtha0.37mbd
13BCM/Yr export $0.7Bn
2.6mbd export ~$66Bn
Domestic 1.9mbd
Fertilsers
MeOH
Mostly internal use
3.8M MTA Export ~ $1.3Bn
Max ~80BCM export ~$4.5Bn
Relies on pipelines and LNG
Polyolefins3.4M MTA Export ~$4.5Bn
Source: UOP Ltd analysis/ International Market Consultant
Natural Gas
~225BCM/Yr
Production
(300BCM/Yr
capacity)
Iran's Hydrocarbon Economy – Additional Petrochemicals
Convert Export LPG and 5% Natural Gas to Olefins ~ $13.3Bn opportunity
4
MeOH
LPG
PDH/ BDH
MTO
Polyolefins,
~$1300/Te
~$350/Te
C3= ~$1000/Te
~$450/Te
NGL
Export Power
C4=
MTBE,
AlkylateFuels
~$1100/Te0.21mbd
10BCM/Yr
Source: UOP Ltd analysis/ International Market Consultant
215-290
BCM/Yr
C2=/C3=
Export value
changes
Potential Delta
value $B vs Base
LPG - 2.9
Gas - 0.4
MTBE/Alkylate + 2.4
Polyolefins + 14.2
TOTAL + 13.3
Why are On-purpose Routes to Olefins Attractive
Price spreads highly favourable for both MTO and PDH
5
MeOH, Naphtha, C2=, C3= Pricing Propane / C3= Price spreads
Source: International Market Consultant
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
North East Asia Pricing, $/MT
Methanol, Spot CFR NE Asia US$ per Metric Ton Naphtha, Spot C&F Japan US$ per Metric Ton
Ethylene, Spot CFR NE Asia US$ per Metric Ton Propylene (PG), Spot CFR NE Asia US$ per Metric Ton
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
North East Asia Pricing, S/MT
Propylene (PG), Spot CFR NE Asia US$ per Metric Ton
Propane, Spot CIF Japan US$ per Metric Ton
C3/C3= uplift
improves with
C3= demand
increase
MeOH spread
strengthens and
more favourable
than Naphtha
Oleflex Case Study – 1M MTA Mixed LPG Feed
>$400M annual product value uplift
6
C3 UOP Oleflex Process
C4 UOP Oleflex +UOP Ethermax Process
LPG
$450/MT
1000KMTA
MeOH
$350/MT
~190KMTA
Propylene
$1000/MT
~540KMTA
MTBE
$750/MT
~ 520KMTA
MTO/PO Case Study – 1.85M MTA MeOH Feed
>$300M annual product value uplift
7
UOP Advanced MTO Process
Polyolefins production
MeOH
$350/MT
1850 KMTA
Polyolefins
$1300/MT
~750KMTA
Value chain uplifts
Strongest value addition is in olefin production step
8
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Natural Gas Methanol C2=/C3= PP/ PE EVA, EPDM,PVA, EDC
etc
Market Price, $/MT
Natural Gas Methanol
C2=/C3= PP/ PE
EVA, EPDM, PVA, EDC etc
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Propane C3= PP EVA, EPDM,PVA, EDC etc
Market Price, $/MT
Propane C3= PP EVA, EPDM, PVA, EDC etc
MTO Route PDH Route
2020 Price Forecast
$ “lift”
for
MTO
$ “lift”
for
PDH
Naphtha crackers less attractive than alternative technologies
9
Olefin Production Economics – Cash Cost of Production
• Naphtha cracking is least attractive route
• High naphtha pricing – linked to crude
• A discount on naphtha of ~30% is needed
to achieve MTO CCOP
• MTO CCOP is based on stand-alone MTO
• In reality a new complex from Gas to
Olefins (Olefin Derivatives) will leverage
the cost position of Iranian Natural Gas
across the whole production chain
• Ethane, propane and gas based technologies
are more attractive
• Feed prices no longer linked to crude
prices
• Ratio on $/energy content has varied
between 3x and 8x in last 7 years despite
low crude prices (less volatility on olefins)2021 Price Forecast – netback Iran
C3 Oleflex Complex
C3 Oleflex Process used for 67% of operating PDH units
10
OleflexProcess
C3 LPG
C4+
By-product H2
C2-
Propylene
SHP
Propylene –
Propane
Splitter
Deethanizer
Depropanizer
UOP 7267-10
UOP Leads the Way in Dehydrogenation
8 repeat customers with two or more units
3 customers who already have a competitor iC4 unit selected UOP for their PDH project
2 Oleflex units announced in Europe in 2016
Oleflex Process is a proven investment and UOP is the market leader
11
Award, Design, Construction
Commissioned
UOP awarded 48 out of 60 dehydro
projects globally since 2011.
Since first commercialized,
7 repeat customers &
7 takeaways from competition
C3 Oleflex- Profitable and Resilient to Price Volatility
12
UOP 7267-12
Basis: 600 KMTA Oleflex, Propane priced at 630 $/MT, NE Asia Pricing, 100% equity
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
350 475 600
Pre
-Tax
RO
I
C3/C3= Spread ($/MT)
Oleflex technology delivers high ROI even when prices are low
Cost-advantaged propane provides potential for even higher
return
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1,000.00
1,200.00
1,400.00
1,600.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Spre
ad, $
/MT
$/M
T
Source: IHS
Propane Propylene Price Spread
High
Typical
Low
UOP Advanced MTO Technology
13
All Sections Commercially Proven
Reactor/Regenerator
(Rx/Rg) Section
Olefin Cracking
Process (OCP)
Olefin Purification
Unit (OPU)
CH3OH
H2O C3=
C2=
© 2016 UOP Ltd. A Honeywell Company All rights reserved.
Overall Block Flow Diagram
C4=+ C2= + C3=
C4=+ By-Product
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Naphtha MTP MTO AdvancedMTO
Carb
on
Yie
ld %
Ethylene Propylene
UOP Advanced MTO Yield Performance
UOP Advanced MTO yields = highest added value
14
© 2016 UOP Ltd. A Honeywell Company All rights reserved.
Technology Comparison
C2=
+ C
3=
Carb
on
Yie
ld %
UOP Advanced MTO vs Alternate MTO Technology
UOP Advanced MTO technology provides the best project economics
15
© 2016 UOP Ltd. A Honeywell Company All rights reserved.
Project IRR
(100% Equity)
UOP Advanced MTO Alternate MTO
2020 Intl. Expected 30% 21%
2020 Iranian Netback 39% 30%
2017 Iranian Netback 35% 29%
Project IRR
(70/30 Debt/Equity)
UOP Advanced MTO Alternate MTO
2020 Intl. Expected 24% 16%
2020 Iranian Netback 34% 25%
2017 Iranian Netback 30% 24%
• Comparison of project financial performance:
UOP Advanced MTO On-Stream Units
Commercially proven technology
16
Nanjing
(300KMTA C2=& C3=)
Jiangsu Sailboat
(830KMTA C2= & C3=)
Shandong Yangmei
(300KMTA C2=& C3=)
Commercialization Status17
# Owner Location Status
1Chengzhi Yongqing Energy Technology Co.
Ltd. (Wison)
Nanjing, Jiangsu
Onstream
2013
2Jiutai Energy (Zhungeer)
Company, Ltd.
Ordos, Inner Mongolia
SU 2017
3Shandong Yangmei Hengtong Chemicals
Company, Ltd.
Linyi, Shandong
Onstream2015
4 Jiangsu-SailboatLianyungang,
JiangsuOn Stream Jan 2017
5 Shandong Better Energy Dongying, Shandong
Licensed
6 Undisclosed China SU 2018
7 Undisclosed China Licensed
8 LUXI Chemical Group Co. Ltd.Liaocheng, Shandong
Design
9 Connell Chemical Industrial Co. Ltd. Jilin City, Jilin SU 2017
10Chengzhi Yongqing Energy Technology Co.
Ltd.
Nanjing, Jiangsu
Licensed
© 2016 UOP Ltd. A Honeywell Company All rights reserved. Commercially Proven Technology
© 2016 UOP Ltd. A Honeywell Company All rights reserved.
Summary
On Purpose Olefin Technologies offer financeable investment Opportunities in Iran
18
ON PURPOSE OLEFINS PRODUCTION ARE VITAL TO IRAN’S EXPORT EARNINGS
- Market fundamentals support on-purpose olefin projects to upgrade gas value
- Propylene-Propane spread forecast to remain strong
- Natural gas and LPG prices advantaged versus naphtha
- Margins for MeOH as a final product are unlikely to be sustained
• Oleflex process offers the optimum route from C3 to C3=
- Lowest overall cost of production & capital cost
- High on-stream availability and proven technology: 29 operating units
- Selected for 80% of dehydrogenation units competitively bid since 2011
• UOP Advanced MTO produces highest total ethylene and propylene yield at the lowest cost.
- Commercially proven technology: 10 units licensed
- 3 operating units demonstrate stable operation & exceed guaranteed performance
- Provides the best project economics.