Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear weapons capability would mark a significant new regional danger, as Tehran would be able to use its status as a nuclear-capable state to in-crease its power and threaten U.S. national security. To stop Iran from becoming a nuclear threshold state, the United States must dramatically quicken the pace and scope of sanctions while bolstering the credibility of its option to use force. The United States cannot rely on a policy that seeks to contain a nuclear Iran.

U N A C C E P T A B L E

iranian nuclearweapons capability:

An Iran with a nuclear weapons capability would likely spur a nuclear arms race and pose a significant proliferation risk.

• Iran’sacquisitionofanuclearweaponscapability—theabilitytoquicklyproduceanuclearweaponatatimeofitschoosing—wouldlikelybeenoughtospuraregionalnucleararmsraceasArabnationspursuetheirowncapabilities.

• TheproliferationofnuclearweaponsintheMiddleEastwouldlikelyspreadelsewhere,markingthedeathknelloftheglobalnon-proliferationregime.

• ManyArabstates,includingtheUAE,Kuwait,Egypt,SaudiArabiaandJordan,havealreadybegunorindicatedtheirintentiontobegin“peaceful”nuclearprograms.

• SaudiArabiahassaiditwillseekanuclearcapabilityifIran’sprogramisnotstopped.PrinceTurkial-FaisalsaidinDecemberthatifinternationaleffortsfail,“wemust,asadutytoourcountryandpeople,lookintoalloptionswearegiven,includingobtainingtheseweaponsourselves.”

• Irancouldshareitsnucleartechnologyandknow-howwithotheranti-Americanregimesandterrorists,greatlyincreasingthethreatofproliferation,nuclearterrorismandblackmail.

Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear weapons capability would be destabilizing and allow Tehran to act as if it already had a weapon.

• Anuclear-capableIrancouldfurtherbemotivatedtointensifyitssupportofMiddleEastterroristgroups,particularlyHamasandHizballah,withareducedfearofbeingheldaccountableforitsactions.

• IranwouldlikelyuseitsperceivednuclearumbrellatointimidateArabstatesandradicalizepopulationswhereitalreadyexertssignificantinfluence,includingIraq,BahrainandLebanon.

• Anuclear-capableIranwouldbeabletoincreaseitsinfluencewithinOPECandexertgreatercontrolovertheflowofoiltankersthroughtheStraitofHormuz.

• Internationaloilmarketswouldlikelyseeanuclear-capableIranasanincreasedthreattothesecureflowofoilfromthePersianGulfandhenceaddariskpremiumtoglobaloilprices.

If the United States allows Iran to acquire a nuclear weapons capability, its global credibility and interests would be undermined.

• TheUnitedStatesfordecadeshasmadepreventinganIraniannuclearweaponakeynationalsecurityobjective.

• ShouldtheU.S.nowacquiescetoIranhavingthiscapability,itwouldcallintoquestionAmerica’sinfluence,poweranddeterminationtoprotectitsinterests.ArabstateswoulddoubtU.S.determinationandlikelyseektoaccommodateandappeaseIran.

• TheabilityoftheUnitedStatestoaddressterrorismandregionalcrises—suchasthecurrentcrisisinSyria—couldbelimitedwithanuclear-capableIranprovidingcovertoitsterroristallies.

• Iran’sfailedplottargetingtheSaudiambassadortoWashington“showsthatsomeIranians…arenowmorewillingtoconductanattackintheUnitedStates,”accordingtoDirectorofNationalIntelligenceJamesClapper.Iran’sacquisitionofanuclearcapabilitywillstrengthenthewillingnessoftheIslamicRepublictocarryoutattacksagainstAmericaninterests.

IranIan nuclear Weapons capabIlIty: A ThreAT To U.S. NATioNAl SecUriTy

IRAN’S CENTRAL BANK TARGETED

Congress authorized unprecedented sanc-tions against the Central Bank of Iran, which is the regime’s key remaining lifeline to the international financial system.

ENRICHED URANIUM TO LOW LEVEL

Iran has installed more than 10,000 centrifuges— machines that spin at supersonic speeds to separate uranium isotopes. It has stock-piled enough low-en-riched uranium that if further enriched could serve as the core for at least four atomic bombs.

TARGET SANCTIONS VIOLATORS

The United States must consistently sanction international firms that continue to work with Iranian entities, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran Air.

TESTED WEAPONIZATION

According to the IAEA’s November 2011 report, Iran has engaged in tests on nuclear triggers and technology used to simulate nuclear explosions.

SQUEEZED IRAN’S ENERGY SECTOR

Congress and the president have ad-opted tough sanctions targeting businesses and investments in Iran’s energy sector as well as sales of refined petroleum to Iran.

INTRODUCED ADVANCED CENTRIFUGES

In the summer of 2011, Iran began installing new advanced-generation centrifuges capable of enriching uranium up to six times faster than previous models.

RESTRICT IRANIAN ACCESS TO SWIFT

The United States must press the So-ciety for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) to block Iranian financial in-stitutions from using its communications network to conduct financial transactions.

BUILD THE BOMB

Once Iran decides to build a nuclear weapon, U.S. and Israeli estimates say Iran could produce an atomic bomb in as little as a year.

OUTLAWED FINANCIAL FIRMS DEALING WITH IRAN

Congress approved sanctions on entities that conduct sig-nificant business with designated Iranian banks.

ENRICHED TO HIGHER LEVELS

By the end of this year, Iran could have a sufficient stockpile of higher-enriched uranium to produce enough weapons-grade material for a bomb. The higher the enrichment level, the less time Iran will need to produce bomb-grade uranium.

TARGET IRANIAN OIL EXPORTS

The United States must seek to restrict Iranian oil exports—the financial lifeblood of the Iranian regime.

CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE FUEL FOR A BOMB

According to U.S. intelligence estimates, Iran already has the technical capability to produce enough highly enriched ura-nium for a weapon. Iran could do so in a matter of months.

IMPLEMENT FINANCIAL SANCTIONS

The United States must impose and strictly enforce tough sanctions against financial institutions continuing to do busi-ness with the Central Bank of Iran.

HARDENED NUCLEAR SITES

Iran’s main enrich-ment center at Natanz is 70 feet underground. A new facility outside Qom is buried 265 feet under a mountain, making it virtually impenetrable.

ENHANCE CREDIBLE MILITARY THREAT

The United States must back sanctions by enhancing a credible threat of military action to pressure Iran to stop its dangerous nuclear pursuit.

WEAPON ON A MISSILE

Once Iran completes its nuclear weapons program, it can load a nuclear warhead onto one of its advanced ballistic missiles and target U.S. military personnel in the re-gion, Israel and parts of Eastern Europe.

U.S. MUST INCREASE PRESSURE ON IRANRecently adopted U.S. and international sanctions are having an unprecedented impact on the Iranian economy. More sanctions are needed to pressure the regime to stop its illicit pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability.

IRANIAN PROGRESS TOWARD A NUCLEAR WEAPONIran’s nuclear program has advanced to a point where it will soon have the capability to quickly break out and produce nuclear weapons when it desires. Once Iran reaches this threshold, it will be able to act as if it already has a weapon.

S A N C T I O N S

N U C L E A R P U R S U I T

Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear weapons capability would mark a significant new regional danger, as Tehran would be able to use its status as a nuclear-capable state to in-crease its power and threaten U.S. national security. To stop Iran from becoming a nuclear threshold state, the United States must dramatically quicken the pace and scope of sanctions while bolstering the credibility of its option to use force. The United States cannot rely on a policy that seeks to contain a nuclear Iran.

U N A C C E P T A B L E

iranian nuclearweapons capability:

An Iran with a nuclear weapons capability would likely spur a nuclear arms race and pose a significant proliferation risk.

• Iran’sacquisitionofanuclearweaponscapability—theabilitytoquicklyproduceanuclearweaponatatimeofitschoosing—wouldlikelybeenoughtospuraregionalnucleararmsraceasArabnationspursuetheirowncapabilities.

• TheproliferationofnuclearweaponsintheMiddleEastwouldlikelyspreadelsewhere,markingthedeathknelloftheglobalnon-proliferationregime.

• ManyArabstates,includingtheUAE,Kuwait,Egypt,SaudiArabiaandJordan,havealreadybegunorindicatedtheirintentiontobegin“peaceful”nuclearprograms.

• SaudiArabiahassaiditwillseekanuclearcapabilityifIran’sprogramisnotstopped.PrinceTurkial-FaisalsaidinDecemberthatifinternationaleffortsfail,“wemust,asadutytoourcountryandpeople,lookintoalloptionswearegiven,includingobtainingtheseweaponsourselves.”

• Irancouldshareitsnucleartechnologyandknow-howwithotheranti-Americanregimesandterrorists,greatlyincreasingthethreatofproliferation,nuclearterrorismandblackmail.

Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear weapons capability would be destabilizing and allow Tehran to act as if it already had a weapon.

• Anuclear-capableIrancouldfurtherbemotivatedtointensifyitssupportofMiddleEastterroristgroups,particularlyHamasandHizballah,withareducedfearofbeingheldaccountableforitsactions.

• IranwouldlikelyuseitsperceivednuclearumbrellatointimidateArabstatesandradicalizepopulationswhereitalreadyexertssignificantinfluence,includingIraq,BahrainandLebanon.

• Anuclear-capableIranwouldbeabletoincreaseitsinfluencewithinOPECandexertgreatercontrolovertheflowofoiltankersthroughtheStraitofHormuz.

• Internationaloilmarketswouldlikelyseeanuclear-capableIranasanincreasedthreattothesecureflowofoilfromthePersianGulfandhenceaddariskpremiumtoglobaloilprices.

If the United States allows Iran to acquire a nuclear weapons capability, its global credibility and interests would be undermined.

• TheUnitedStatesfordecadeshasmadepreventinganIraniannuclearweaponakeynationalsecurityobjective.

• ShouldtheU.S.nowacquiescetoIranhavingthiscapability,itwouldcallintoquestionAmerica’sinfluence,poweranddeterminationtoprotectitsinterests.ArabstateswoulddoubtU.S.determinationandlikelyseektoaccommodateandappeaseIran.

• TheabilityoftheUnitedStatestoaddressterrorismandregionalcrises—suchasthecurrentcrisisinSyria—couldbelimitedwithanuclear-capableIranprovidingcovertoitsterroristallies.

• Iran’sfailedplottargetingtheSaudiambassadortoWashington“showsthatsomeIranians…arenowmorewillingtoconductanattackintheUnitedStates,”accordingtoDirectorofNationalIntelligenceJamesClapper.Iran’sacquisitionofanuclearcapabilitywillstrengthenthewillingnessoftheIslamicRepublictocarryoutattacksagainstAmericaninterests.

IranIan nuclear Weapons capabIlIty: A ThreAT To U.S. NATioNAl SecUriTy