IRAN: HIGH TO VERY HIGH RISK

M6.3 EARTHQUAKE STRIKES

KAKI, IRAN

TUESDAY, APRIL 9, 2013

32 DEAD

850 INJURED

THE EPICENTER: KAKI

• The town of Kaki is located 96 km (57

miles) southeast of Bushehr, a town on

the Persian Gulf that is home of Iran’s

first nuclear power plant, built with

Russian help.

• “No damage was done to the Bushehr

power plant.”

BUSHEHR: DAMAGE

Iran has a long history of

destructive earthquakes,

which have already left at

least 126,000 dead during

the 20th and 21st centuries.

FOR ADDITIONAL

INFORMATION• Contact Mehdi Zare and Mohammad

Shahvar, IIEES

mzare@iiees.ac.ar

ADDITIONAL PERSPECTIVE

IRAN: INTERACTION OF ARABIAN

—ANATOLIAN---EURASIAN PLATES

INTERACTING TECTONIC

PLATES

REGIONAL SEISMICITY

IRAN: HIGH TO VERY HIGH RISK

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO

HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT

(SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND

FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION

AND PLAN

FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF

UTILITIES

LACK OF DETAILING AND

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

INATTENTION TO NON-

STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES

OF

DAMAGE

“DISASTER

LABORATORIES”

A DISASTER is ---

--- the set of failures that overwhelm the

capability of a community to respond

without external help when three

continuums: 1) people, 2) community

(i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and

social constructs), and 3) complex

events (e.g., earthquakes, cyclones,..)

intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by

single- or multiple-event

natural hazards that, (for

various reasons), cause

extreme levels of mortality,

morbidity, homelessness,

joblessness, economic losses,

or environmental impacts.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is UN-

PREPARED for what will likely

happen

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• When it does happen, the

functions of the community’s

buildings and infrastructure that

are UNPROTECTED with the

appropriate codes and standards

will be LOST.

INTENSITY

V VI VII VIII IX

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

ME

AN

D

AM

AG

E R

AT

IO

,

% O

F R

EP

LA

CE

ME

NT

V

ALU

E

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE

DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO

GROUND SHAKING

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community has NO DISASTER

PLANNING SCENARIO or

WARNING SYSTEM in place as a

strategic framework for concerted

local, national, regional, and

international actions.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community LACKS THE

CAPACITY TO RESPOND to

the full spectrum of emergency

situations that can occur.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is INEFFICIENT

during recovery and

reconstruction because it HAS

NOT LEARNED from either the

current experience or the

cumulative prior experiences.

BAM EARTHQUAKE:

DECEMBER 26, 2003

TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE

DISASTER RESILIENCE

IRAN’S

COMMUNITIESDATA BASES

AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS:GROUND SHAKING

GROUND FAILURE

SURFACE FAULTING

TECTONIC DEFORMATION

TSUNAMI RUN UP

AFTERSHOCKS

• EARTHQUAKE

HAZARDS

•INVENTORY

•VULNERABILITY

•LOCATION

EARTHQUAKE RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

EARTHQUAKE

DISASTER RESILIENCE

•PREPAREDNESS

•PROTECTION

•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS

•EMERGENCY RESPONSE

•RECOVERY and

RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONS