ira sohn 2014 glenview
DESCRIPTION
Ira Sohn 2014 GlenviewTRANSCRIPT
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Larry Robbins, CEO
19thAnnual Ira Sohn
Investment Conference
May 5, 2014
Wow, Thats Cheap!
Gotta Stick to the Fundamentals
We Want (and He Needs) the Cup!
0
Slides available at
www.sohnconference.org
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MAY 2014LEGALDISCLAIMERTHIS PRESENTATION DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER TO SELL NOR THE SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY ANY INTEREST IN ANY INVESTMENT FUND
MANAGED BY GLENVIEW CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC (GLENVIEW). SUCH OFFER OR SOLICITATION MAY ONLY BE MADE BY DELIVERY OF THE APPLICABLE
FUNDSOFFERING DOCUMENTS, INCLUDING A PRIVATE PLACEMENT MEMORANDUM, APPLICABLE SUBSCRIPTION DOCUMENTS, APPLICABLE GOVERNING
DOCUMENTS AND GLENVIEWSFORM ADV PART 2, ALL OF WHICH MUST BE READ IN THEIR ENTIRETY. EACH FUNDSOFFERING DOCUMENTS CONTAIN A
DESCRIPTION OF THE MATERIAL TERMS OF THE FUND, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, RISK FACTORS AND CONFLICTS OF INTERESTS RELATING TO THE
FUND AND GLENVIEW. AMONG OTHER THINGS, THE RISK FACTORS PROVIDE THAT: AN INVESTOR MAY LOSE ALL OR PART OF ITS INVESTMENT, PAST
PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS, THE FUNDS MAY NOT ACHIEVE THEIR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, THE FUNDS MAYUTILIZE LEVERAGE, AND THERE ARE RESTRICTIONS LIMITING AN INVESTORS ABILITY TO REDEEM OR TRANSFER ITS INVESTMENT IN THE FUNDS. ANY
OFFERING WILL BE MADE ON A PRIVATE PLACEMENT BASIS TO A LIMITED NUMBER OF ELIGIBLE INVESTORS WHO MEET THE SUITABILITY REQUIREMENTS
RELATING TO AN INVESTMENT IN THE APPLICABLE FUND AND WHO ARE WILLING AND ABLE TO CONDUCT AN INDEPENDENT INVESTIGATION OF THE RISKS
INVOLVED. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN WILL BE SUPERSEDED IN ITS ENTIRETY BY THE APPLICABLE FUNDSOFFERING DOCUMENTS.
THE INVESTMENT FUNDS MANAGED BY GLENVIEW (EACH, A FUND,TOGETHER THE FUNDS)MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES OF COMPANIES
REFERENCED IN THIS PRESENTATION. THESE PORTFOLIOS ARE ACTIVELY MANAGED AND ANY SECURITIES DISCUSSED HEREIN MAY OR MAY NOT BE HELD IN
THE PORTFOLIOS AT ANY GIVEN TIME. THE SECURITIES DISCUSSED HEREIN DO NOT REPRESENT AN ENTIRE PORTFOLIO OF A FUND AND IN AGGREGATE MAY
ONLY REPRESENT A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF A FUNDS HOLDINGS. SPECIFIC SECURITIES HIGHLIGHTED HEREIN HAVE BEEN SELECTED TO ILLUSTRATE
GLENVIEWSINVESTMENT APPROACH AND ARE NOT INTENDED TO REPRESENT THE FUNDSPERFORMANCE NOR HAVE THEY BEEN SELECTED ON THE BASIS
OF PERFORMANCE OR ANY PERFORMANCE-RELATED CRITERIA. NOTHING CONTAINED HEREIN SHALL CONSTITUTE AN ADVERTISEMENT, A SOLICITATION,
RECOMMENDATION OR ENDORSEMENT TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT REFERENCED IN THIS PRESENTATION.
ANY PROJECTIONS, TARGETS OR ESTIMATES IN THIS REPORT ARE FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS AND ARE BASED ON GLENVIEWSRESEARCH, ANALYSIS,
OPINIONS AND ASSUMPTIONS MADE BY GLENVIEW. THERE CAN BE NO ASSURANCE THAT SUCH PROJECTIONS, TARGETS OR ESTIMATES WILL OCCUR AND
THE ACTUAL RESULTS MAY BE MATERIALLY DIFFERENT.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
THE FUNDS HAVE NOT BEEN APPROVED BY OR LICENSED OR REGISTERED WITH ANY LICENSING AUTHORITY OR GOVERNMENTAL AGENCY. THE
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION IS FOR DISCUSSION AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND IS BEING FURNISHED ON ACONFIDENTIAL BASIS TO A LIMITED NUMBER OF ELIGIBLE INVESTORS. NO PORTION OF THIS PRESENTATION MAY BE COPIED, REPRODUCED, REPUBLISHED
OR DISTRIBUTED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT THE EXPRESS WRITTEN CONSENT OF GLENVIEW.
THIS PRESENTATION IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND IS NOT TO BE RELIED UPON AS INVESTMENT, LEGAL, TAX OR FINANCIAL ADVICE. ANY
PROSPECTIVE INVESTOR MUST CONSULT WITH HIS OR HER INDEPENDENT PROFESSIONAL ADVISORS AS TO THE LEGAL, TAX, FINANCIAL OR OTHER MATTERS
RELEVANT TO THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT IN ANY INTEREST IN ANY INVESTMENT FUND MANAGED BY GLENVIEW.
FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES, PLEASE REFER TO PAGES 46-48 OF THIS PRESENTATION.
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MAY 2014SONICEWELLSAYITTWICE
Plain English Legal Disclaimer
IN ORDER TO ENHANCE CURRENT AND PROSPECTIVE INVESTOR UNDERSTANDING OF OUR PROCESS, APPROACH AND VIEWS, THIS
PRESENTATION INCLUDES DETAILED DISCUSSIONS REGARDING SELECTED POSITIONS IN OUR FUNDSPORTFOLIOS. IN DOING SO,WE HOPE THIS TRANSPARENCY ENHANCES YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF OUR VIEWS ON THE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES WE SEE
IN THE MARKETPLACE AND WHY WE HAVE POSITIONED THE FUNDSPORTFOLIOS THE WAY WE HAVE. WITH SUCH INFORMATION
AVAILABLE TO YOU, WE BELIEVE CURRENT AND PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS ARE BETTER INFORMED AND EQUIPPED TO CHALLENGE
OR DILIGENCE OUR VIEWS AND APPROACH TO DETERMINE WHETHER AN INVESTMENT IN A FUND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
MANDATE OF EACH INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR. AS OUR FOCUS IS ON CURRENT POSITIONS, WE NATURALLY HAVE A CONSTRUCTIVE
BIAS TO THESE COMPANIES, WHICH INVESTORS SHOULD WEIGH IN DETERMINING THEIR OWN VIEWS ON OUR APPROACH AND
THE FORWARD RETURN OPPORTUNITIES OF THE FUNDS.
AS THE LEGAL DISCLAIMERS MAKE CLEAR, WE ARE NOT DISCUSSING POSITIONS TO HIGHLIGHT THOSE THAT HAVE PERFORMEDWELL FOR US. BY AND LARGE THE HIGHLIGHTED POSITIONS ARE CURRENT PORTFOLIO POSITIONS AND THEIR PERFORMANCE
REMAINS TO BE SEEN. WE HAVE ALWAYS HAD A MIX OF WINNERS AND LOSERS AND EXACTLY HOW THESE POSITIONS PERFORM
OVER TIME WILL BE JUDGED WITH TIME. TO UNDERSTAND THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF OUR FUNDS, YOU SHOULD REFER TO THE
TABLES IN THE APPENDIX WHERE WE LAY OUT THE MONTHLY PERFORMANCE OF OUR FUNDS SINCE INCEPTION. WE HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED A SECTION THAT SHOWS OUR TOP 5 WINNERS AND BOTTOM 5 LOSERS DURING THE LAST FULL CALENDAR YEAR TO
PROVIDE YOU WITH ENHANCED TRANSPARENCY. OF COURSE, THIS WOULDNTBE A DISCLAIMER, IF WE DIDNT REMIND YOU
THAT OUR PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATOR OF HOW WE WILL DO IN THE FUTURE. NONETHELESS, OUR ACTUAL
PERFORMANCE SHOULD BE YOUR GUIDE FOR HOW WEVE DONE IN THE PAST, NOT THE PERFORMANCE OF INDIVIDUAL
SECURITIES.
WE RECOGNIZE THAT THESE MATERIALS ARE DETAILED AND SOMEWHAT OPINIONATED. WE HAVE DESIGNED THEM THAT WAY
SO YOU CAN UNDERSTAND WHY WE ARE ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT CERTAIN OPPORTUNITIES AND WHAT INFORMS OUR MARKET
OUTLOOK. IN OUR VIEW, TRANSPARENCY IS PARAMOUNT AND WE HOPE THAT THESE MATERIALS SERVE AS A USEFUL GUIDE AS
YOU EVALUATE WHETHER AN INVESTMENT IN OUR FUNDS IS APPROPRIATE FOR YOU.
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PAGE3
TIMEOUT: WHATSTHEPLAY?
The Winning Playbook
1 Perceived Bad Guys MayBe Great Teammates
HMOs, GMOs, and HedgeFund CEOs
2 Make the Easy Play Secular Growth in Healthcareand Agriculture
3 Ignore the Crowd Noiseand Focus
Watch Fundamentals Closely
4 Give Yourself MultipleChances to Win
Convertible Equities
5 110% Effort Respectful ShareholderEngagement
Long Investment Ideas
Humana
WellPoint
Monsanto
(HUM: $109)
(WLP: $101)
(MON: $112)
The Best Things About May:
1.March and April are over
2.Stanley Cup Playoffs3.The Sohn Investment Conference
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PREVIOUSLY, ONTHELAST104 WEEKS EPISODES.
May 2012 May 2014 Comments
Systemic RiskHigh
European Uncertainty
Low OMT, Germany stepped up3
Stock Correlations0.75
all risk on/off
0.55
stock pickers market
S&P 500 1325 (12.7x) 1884 (16.1x) +45%
10-Year Treasuries 1.76% 2.58% Tapering now done
High Yield Bonds 7.9% 5.6% Debt cheap and available
Corporate Boards Hoarding cash Deploying cash Success with Buybacks/M&A
M&A LTM1 $463B $798B Acquirers being rewarded
Annual Share Repurchase2 $366B $518B +41%
Engagement Little / NoneStrong across
all market caps
Unprecedented Wave
Mats Zuccarello &
Carl HagelinAHL/NHL
Round 2 Playoffs,
1st / 9thleading scorersLockout / Workout / Worked Out!
PAGE5
1
Source: Strategas Group.2
Represents Q4 2011 and Q4 2013 annualized.3
250-day correlation amongst S&P 500 stocks (each stock in index correlated to one another) is sourced from Strategas
S&P 500 Rolling 250-Day Correlation
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14
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DRIVERSOFCONVERGENCEWe believe the fundamental backdrop for equity based investing strategies is constructive based upon the
following factors:
4.8%
2%
4%
6%
'60 '70 '80 '90 '00 '10
Leg 1: Cheap Valuations Leg 2: Excess Cash
Leg 3: Exceedingly Low Borrowing Costs Leg 4: Shareholder Engagement1
US Non-Financial Corps. Cash % Total Assets
% TotalAssets
(4Q13 is most recent data)2014 P/E 2015 P/E 10 Yr Range
Glenview 14.7 11.8 8-19x
S&P 500 16.1 14.4 10-17x
S&P 500
Internet Retail48.6 34.2 20-106x
PAGE6
1
Examples of Shareholders Engagements. Data sourced from Strategas and Glenview figures. Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosure on highlighted securities, benchmark comparisons,performance data and forward looking statements, opinions and projections.
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FROMDRIFTUPTOLIFTUP
2H 2012 &all of 2013
2014 &
beyond
Lower Systemic Risk Valuation rebounded from lows
Modest 6% earnings growth
Capital Deployment Corporate actions / M&A
Accelerated earnings
Strengthening economy
Potential for continued P/E restoration
Board, Management and Owners
must lift up Excess returns achievable but work
needed Increased focus on contrarian ideas
Stocks drifted up 2/3 of index return from multiple
enhancement
ResultsDrivers
Company Sale Share Repurchase Accretive M&A Portfolio Restructuring Management Change Activist Engagement
Convertible Equity = Cheap, Defensive Secular Growth + Call Options on:
Opportunity Set - Convertible Equities
A fictional concept that describes a low risk base business with one or more call options on value accelerants
to lift up an ordinary investment return to an extraordinary return
Hard Work and Good Decisions Will Differentiate
PAGE7
Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of forward-looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation. In addition, certain statements contained herein arebased on Glenviews research, analysis, opinions and assumptions made by Glenview, which may not prove to be accurate or corr ect.
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PAGE8
EVERYMANSTRASHISGLENVIEWSTREASUREPast and Present Sohn Conference Contrarian Longs
What was saidvs. Glenviews view Results Returns
Long Express Scripts (ESRX)
PBMs are fraudulent middlemen
vs.PBMs reduce pharma costs
Pharma Inflation:
12%2% 7.5xover 10 years
Long McKesson (MCK)Distributors cant survive
business model changes
vs.
Pills in 06
EPS up
5xin 10 years
Outperformed SPX by
293%
Long HospitalsTenetHealthcare (THC)
Obamacare will damage Hospitals
vs.
More coverage = more revenues,
shareholders will be rewarded
Consolidation
Repurchase
Reform Uplift
2xand climbing
Long Managed Care Companies
Humana (HUM), WellPoint (WLP)
(we own more than these two)
HMOs are the problem
with healthcare
vs.
HMOs reduce costs,
shareholders will be rewarded
Strong basis
for optimism
We see
excess returns
Long Monsanto (MON) GMOs will fall out of favor
vs.
GMOs are the only answer
to growing food yields
Strong basis
for optimism
We see
excess returns
2002
2005
2012
2014
2014
Securities highlighted in this slide have been selected to illustrate Glenviews investment approach and/or market outlook and are not intended to represent the Funds performance or be an indicator forhow the Funds have performed or may perform in the future. These examples have been selected solely for this purpose and have not been selected on the basis of performance or any performancerelated
criteria. In addition, certain statements contained herein are based on Glenviews research, analysis, opinions and assumptions made by Glenview, which may not prove to be accurate or correct. Please
refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use of forward looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation.
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PAGE9
HMOS: DONTLETTHEFACTSGETINTHEWAYOFAGOODARGUMENT
Myth 1:
We right now give $15 billion every year as subsidies to privateinsurers under the Medicare system. It doesnt work any better
through these private insurers; they just skim off $15 billion. That
was a giveaway.- President Obama, Sep 2008
Entire Net Income of Public
For-Profit HMO IndustryHMO Profits US Healthcare Spending
2008 2014E 2000 2010 2020E
$10B $14B $1,377B $2,600B $4,416B
A Single-Payor System would be more
efficient than the Big Bad Private HMOs
Through consumer choice and policy decisions,
government has increasingly transferred more
business to the private sector:
HMOs Profits are the reason
healthcare costs are too highMyth 2:
Mythbuster:Mythbuster:
Whats hard is what millions of families and small businesses aregoing through because we allow the insurance industry to run wild
in this country.
- President Obama, Mar 2010
2014E HMO Profits as a % of Healthcare Spending
National Medicare Advantage Penetration:
2010: 24% 2014: 30%
Source: CMS, Kaiser Family Foundation, Credit Suisse. Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of forward-looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation. Inaddition, certain statements contained herein are based on Glenviews research, analysis, opinions and assumptions made by Glenview, which may not prove to be accurate or correct.
HMO Profits
~0.4%
US Healthcare
Spending
Medicaid Managed Care Management of Dual Eligibles
Expansion or adoption
since 2011States pursuing Duals demos
Actions speak louder than words
PlusACA Medicaid Expansion
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0x
10x
20x
30x
PAGE 10
HOWDOWEKNOWHMOSAREHATED? MULTIPLEWAYS!
NTM
P/E
Multiples
HC Services
12%(2%)
(3%)8%
(6%)
Managed Care1
(6%)
(4%)
11.7X
S&P 500 Healthcare Index Pharma Biotech Med Tech HCIT
HMOs are ABSOLUTELY Cheap
14.4x15.3x
10.6x12.3x
9.9x 9.7x 10.5x
7.5x
11.5x
8.4x
0x
5x
10x
15x
20x
S&P 500 UNH CI AET WLP HUM
2015
Multiples2
WLP
Bull CaseManaged
Care Average1Healthcare
IndexHUM
Bull Case
1
Large cap managed care firms (UNH, CI, AET, WLP) excluding HUM.2
Multiples based on consensus and GCM 2015 EPS estimates. Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use offorward-looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation. In addition, certain statements contained herein are based on Glenviews research, analysis, opinions and assumptions made by
Glenview, which may not prove to be accurate or correct.
Jun
2007
Oct
2008
Today
(18%)
Jun
2007
Oct
2008
Today Jun
2007
Oct
2008
Today Jun
2007
Oct
2008
Today Jun
2007
Oct
2008
Today Jun
2007
Oct
2008
Today Jun
2007
Oct
2008
Today Jun
2007
Oct
2008
Today
HMOs only group yet to recover
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DIDNTTHEAFFORDABLECAREACTHURTHMOS? YES, BUTTHEYAREHEALINGWELL
Profit Caps Federal MLR Requirements
Profit Caps 2 Federal and State Rate Review
Added Costs Industry Taxes and Fees
Reduced
Reimbursement
Medicare Advantage
reimbursement cuts to FFS
Medicare Parity
High Unemployment5% decline in commercial
enrollments, 10% at trough
Falling Interest Rates1-2% EPS headwind annually
from lower investment income
1
Bureau of Labor Statistics, WLP estimates.2
Historical data based on the JPM AA-rated JULI index. Projected AA yields are based on the current JPM AA-rated JULI index spread + the 7-year US Treasuryforward curve. 3Accenture 2013 report on Private Exchanges. Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of forward-looking statements, opinions and projections in this
presentation. In addition, certain statements contained herein are based on Glenviews research, analysis, opinions and assumptions made by Glenview, which may not prove to be accurate or correct.
Sources of Pain: 2007-2013 Let the Healing Begin: 2014-2019
Better Business Mix
and Better Business
Greater exposure to faster-growing
Medicare & Medicaid: 9% in 2007,
22% today
MA Volume AND
Price Growth
3% population, 3-5% penetrationand 1-2% pricing growth in 2016
and beyond, plus share gains
Increased Medicaid
Penetration
Medicaid Expansion and
Outsourced Medicaid will nearly
double market size in 3 years
Rising EmploymentEstimated to add 2% per year to
commercial enrollments
Rising Interest Rates 1-2% EPS tailwind annually fromhigher investment income
Growth in Private
Exchanges
Moving from ASO to Risk increases
profit per member 4x-5x
89%
91%
93%
95%
Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18
Interest Rates2
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Apr-07 Apr-09 Apr-11 Apr-13 Apr-15 Apr-17
Historical & Projected AA Corporate Yields
1-2%/year
EPS tailwind
1-2%/year
EPS headwind
projected
Unemployment1
2008-13 Commercial
Enrollments
(5%)
2013-18 Commercial
Enrollments
+9%
~2% per year
EmploymentRate
(%)
projected
Private Exchanges3
1
9
19
30
40
0
20
40
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Members
(M)
Projected Adoption
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Strong Secular Growth Enrollment +3% driven by population, employment, newly insured Commercial pricing stable with cost trend, Medicare headwinds abating
M-HSD% premium growth leading to 13-15% EPS growth before extraordinary returns
Medium Term Tailwinds Interest rates, employment, free cash flow deployment Accelerating demographics in MA
Room for Multiple Restoration Group 10.6x EPS = return to over 14x over 3 years adds +10% above earnings growth
Fresh & Engaged Management Most management teams have new CEO/CFO in last 3 years
Levers to Drive Value Balance sheet optimization Repurchase
M&A
Asset reshuffling
Monetizing hidden assets
HMOSFROMINVESTORHELLTODOINGWELL
The negatives were absorbed or never happened
Leaving a clear road ahead
Single Payor couldnt get traction in 2009 with the Democratic sweep Early read of ACA population is acceptable within risk corridors
MLR Floors, MA cuts absorbed in 2011 Managed Care Tax, Dumping absorbed in 2014
PAGE12
Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of forward-looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation. In addition, certain statements contained herein arebased on Glenviews research, analysis, opinions and assumptions made by Glenview, which may not prove to be accurate or corr ect.
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SINCETHEACA, A TALENTEDANDFOCUSEDWAVEOFNEWLEADERS
Title Name Duration (yrs) Prior Experience Corporate Actions
CEO Joe Swedish 1 Trinity Health/ Catholic Health
Association/ HCA
Divested 1-800 CONTACTS division
CFO Wayne DeVeydt 7 PricewaterhouseCoopers Repurchased >50% of shares outstanding
during his tenure
Acquired AGP for $4.6B
CEO Mark Bertolini 3 Cigna Acquired Coventry for $7.3B
CFO Shawn Guertin 1 Coventry Health Care Repurchased ~9% of shares outstanding
CEO David Cordani 4 Coopers & Lybrand Acquired HealthSpring for $3.8B
PBM outsourcing deal
VADB carve-outCFO Tom McCarthy 1 Kemper Insurance
CEO Bruce Broussard 1 US Oncology/Harbor Dental Hired 3rdparty advisor to investigate
opportunities for their PBM
CFO Brian Kane Starts June 1 Goldman Sachs
PAGE13
Securities highlighted in this slide have been selected to illustrate Glenviews investment approach and/or market outlook and are not intended to represent the Funds performance or be an indicator forhow the Funds have performed or may perform in the future. The securities discussed herein do not represent an entire portfolio and in the aggregate may only represent a small percentage of a Funds
holdings. Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use of forward looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation.
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CASESTUDY
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PAGE 15
HUMANA: HEALTHYINVESTMENTOUTLOOK
1. MA Description Government pays private companies to manage Medicare
coverage & develop their own plan designs, which results
in richer benefit designs including vision, hearing, & dental
care 75% MA / 25% Other Managed Care
2. Attractive Core Waterfall 2015 and Beyond Revenues 9%
EBIT 13%
EPS 17%
3. Numerous Areas of Upside Optionality PBM Outsourcing
Adding leverage for accretive M&A / repurchase Expanding membership from retiree private exchanges,
public exchanges, and state-based Duals contracts
Long term: Potential acquisition target
4. Overcapitalized 23% to 26% dry powder as % of market cap
5. Cheap and Getting Cheaper
6. Enhanced Focus on Shareholder Value New CEO and CFO focused on driving core value and
addressing upside levers
Symbol HUM
Share Price $108.89
Shares Out 156 M
Market Cap $17.0 B
Parent Cash $0.5 B
Debt $2.6 B
EV $19.1 B
Debt/Cap 22%
Dry Powder
% of Market Cap 23 - 26%
Health Insurance Provider
2014E 2015E
EPS ~$8 >$9
P/E ~14x
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THERESANALARMINGOUTBREAKOFOLDPEOPLE
As Baby Boomers turn 65, population growth of 65 and over is 3% vs 0.70% national average
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Medicare
AdvantagePenetration of
>65 Population
(%)
Year
MA penetration has grown steadily1
+3%growth/yr
And they prefer Medicare Advantage over Straight Fee For Service Medicare
And they prefer Humana over other MAproviders
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Medicare
Advantage
Market Share
(%)
Other
UHC
KFHPAETWLPCIG
HUM
UHC HUM
KFHP
AET
WLPCIG Other
(100K)
HUM share has grown steadily1
Year
Consolidation of plans with
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SENIORSVOTEFORMAEVENTHECBO GETSIT
30%+
20-29%
10-19%
0-10%
Share of Medicare Beneficiaries Enrolled in MA1
High % MA States are Swing States & Populous
States Senators House Members % USElectoral
College
WeightedAverage
MA %D R D R
30%+ States
(18)23 14 107 112 47% 37.1%
20%+ States
(32)32 32 162 188 78% 32.9%
20
6
18
12
5
14
818
0
25
50
States
Senate Leadership State with 20%+ MA
Swing State with 20%+ MA
MA Plans are high-quality &
Seniors are very satisfied
MA outperformed fee-for-service on
10 of 12 quality measures2
~9 out of 10 enrollees are satisfied
with every aspect of their MA plan3
1
Kaiser Family Foundation, 2014.
2
Am J Manag Care 16(11): 841-848, 2010 and 18(2): 96-104, 2012.
3
National Survey of Seniors Regarding Medicare Advantage Plans, North Star Opinion Research, Feb. 2013.Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of forward-looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation. In addition, certain statements contained herein are
based on Glenviews research, analysis, opinions and assumptions made by Glenview, which may not prove to be accurate or correct.
2007 2014Despite ACA cuts, seniors stay
in MA & CBO has increased its
MA enrollment estimates
6
12
18
24
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Projected
MA Enrollees
(M)
CBO2010
CBO
2012
CBO
2014
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WHICHALLADDSUPTO10-15% ORGANICREVENUEGROWTH
Humana MA Revenue Growth 2015 & Beyond
0%
5%
10%
15%
Population
Growth
Penetration Market Share
Gains
3%
3-5%
3-5%
Total Member
Growth
+
Pricing Growth
9-13%1-2%
=
Share
Gains
Penetration
Population
Growth
2015+ Organic
Growth
Opportunity
10-15%
=
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
HUM Medicare
Advantage
Members
(000)
2009-13
12.7% CAGR
Year
9-13% MA growth is inline with recent organic growth and accelerates the earnings waterfall over time
15% 15% 15% 15%
5% 5% 5% 5%
12.4% 12.5%12.7% 12.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2015 2016 2017 2018
HUM EBIT
Growth (%)
Year
Medicare
Advantage
Other
Consolidated
PAGE18
Calculations are based on Glenviews projections, which may not prove to be accurate or correct. Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use
of forward looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation.
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RELIEVINGELBOWPAIN
After 5 years of absorbing rate cuts resulting in no earnings growth, the pig is finally
through the python, leading to sustained, defensive growth + convertible options
$6
$8
$10
$12
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 and beyond
12% 10% 7% 4%2% 1%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 and
beyondFFS Parity Remaining ACA Cuts
-6%
-4%
-2%0%
2%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 and
beyond
(~2%) (~2%)(~1%)
(~5%)
(~3%)
About flat
1-2%
Phase-In ofMedicare
Advantage
ACA Cuts1
Annual RateIncrease/Decrease2
HumanaEPS
Convertible
Options:
Option 1
PBM
+
Option 2
Cash Use /
Returns on Cash
+
Option 3
Retiree Private
Exchanges
+
Option 4
New Markets
+Option 5
Long Term
Consolidation
15-20%
EPS Growth
PAGE19
1Based on JP Morgan estimates. 22011-15 estimated based on Humanas disclosures. Calculations are based on Glenviews projections, which may not prove to be accurate or correct. Please refer to pages
46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use of forward looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation.
O 1 S O S
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Integrated medical / Pharmacy Management
Formulary Design
Clinical program development
Sales & marketing
Customer facing functions
Direct engagement with physicians
Management of mail order facilities
Ownership of specialty pharmacies
OPTION1: PBMTIMETOSTEPONTHESCALE
PBM Optionality
PBM
Rx Volume
(MM)
Buyer /
Partner Year Structure Impact
WLP ~200 ESRX 2009 10-yr asset purchase $4.7 B Cash
AET ~136 CVS 2010 Outsourcing Agreement 10% Accretive to EPS
CI ~170 CTRX 2013 Outsourcing Agreement 7% Accretive to EPSHUM ~275 ?? ?? Likely Outsourcing Could be 10-15% Accretive
We believe that HUM could outsource parts of its PBM operations to another scale provider to reduce costs &
enhance earnings from its PBM operations
1,7091,478
572 444275 200 170 136
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
CVS ESRX UNH CTRX HUM WLP CI AET
Scale MattersSignificant Saving
Opportunity to Humana
Adjusted Rx Volume (Millions)1
Weve Seen This Movie Before
X
TBD
We continuously in fact we're in the process right now of evaluating our cost structure both from a fulfillment point of
view and from a purchasing point of view to ensure that we are competitive. We've hired a third-party to do that evaluation
and nothing to-date has given us an indication that we need to change that perspective. - CEO Bruce Broussard (March 11, 2014)
AET CI
1CVS includes 890 M prescriptions filled at the pharmacy & 819 M through the PBM. CTRX totals are pro-forma and include CI scripts. Calculations are based on Glenviews projections, which may not prove
to be accurate or correct. Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use of forward looking statements, opinions and projections in this
presentation.
PAGE20
O 2 D P T G C F B
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OPTION2: DRYPOWDERTHEGENERALCANFIREBACK
22%
25% 40%
Old Target of
outgoing CFO
Max leverage to
maintain investment
grade as per rating
agencies
HUM Valuation
2015 2016
Current leverage 11.5x 9.9x
30% Debt / Cap 9.9x 8.4x
35% Debt / Cap 9.6x 8.2x
40% Debt / Cap 9.3x 7.9x
Dry Powder
23-26%
Dry
Powder
16-19%
2015 Debt / Cap
Dry Powder13%
30% 35%
Peers
CI 33%
UNH 34%
AET 36%
WLP 37%
While investors continue to value Humana using a rear view mirror,
management should aggressively repurchase shares
PAGE21
Data sourced from company materials and Bloomberg. Calculations are based on Glenviews projections, which may not prove to be accurate or correct. Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures
regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use of forward looking statements, opinions and projections in this presenta tion. In addition, certain statements contained herein are based on Glenviews
research, analysis, opinions and assumptions made by Glenview, which may not prove to be accurate or correct.
O 3 A
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OPTION3: RETIREEPRIVATEEXCHANGESMORETHANHOTAIR
10-12M retirees
have employer-
sponsored
health coverage
1.5-4.5M
could move to
Private Exchanges
in the next 5 years
400k-1.5M of those will
likely adopt MA plans:
A membership tailwind
for MA of up to 9%
0.5-2% Revenue
Growth per year,
10-40c EPS Growth
Based on current
market share,
50k-225k new MAlives for Humana
Private Exchange: A marketplace of health insurance & related products open to employees/retirees of a given employer sponsor
Large Employers
across 8 surveys1
Actively
pursuing8-10%
Near-term
adoption 22-28%
Retirees on Private
Exchanges of AON &
Extend Health, two
leading managers
On MA plans 25%
PAGE22
1Source: Aon 2013 Corporate Exchange Survey, Benfield 2013 Employer Healthcare Reform & Private Exchanges Survey, PwC 2013 Focusing on the Future of Healthcare Benefits Survey, TW 2013 Health Care Changes Ahead Survey, KFF
2013 Employer Health Benefits Survey, Alegeus 2013 Defined Contribution & Private Exchange Survey, Willis 2012-13 Healthcare Reform Survey, PwC 2012 Health & Well-Being Touchstone Survey, International Foundation of Employee
Benefit Plans 2013 Employer-Sponsored Health Care Survey, Aon 2012 Retiree Health Care Survey, Aon 2013 Retiree Healthcare Survey.Calculations are based on Glenviews projections, which may not prove to be accurate or correct.
Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use of forward looking statements, o pinions and projections in this presentation.
O 4 N M
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OPTION4: NEWMARKETS
0.25
0.54
1.001.04
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
2014 Guidance 2015E 2016E 2017E
Public Exchanges Medicare/Medicaid Duals
1M public exchange lives
would add ~40-80c to EPS
Humana Public Exchange Lives (M)
Already-won contracts
add ~40-60c to EPS
Total (CBO) 6M 13M 24M 25MHUM Share 4% 4% 4% 4%
HUM recently won Duals contracts worth $5-7B
HUMs long-term target margin for state-based
contracts is 3%
There are ~9M dual-eligible enrollees, accounting
for $250B+ in annual healthcare spending
17 states are running or plan to run demonstration
projects to coordinate care for these Duals
Lives(M)
Project cleared by CMS
Proposal pending
Considered
PAGE23
Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of forward-looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation. In addition, certain statements contained herein are
based on Glenviews research, analysis, opinions and assumptions made by Glenview, which may not prove to be accurate or corr ect.
V
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VALUATION
Consistent with the framework of a Convertible Equity we see healthy
gains ahead for Humana, with the opportunity for extraordinary returnsdriven by PBM outsourcing and sound capital deployment.
PAGE24
2015E Multiple Target Price % Upside
Base Case ~$10 15-16x $143-152 31-40%
+ PBM Outsource ~$11 15-16x $162-172 48-58%
+ PBM Outsource & Debt/Cap of 35% ~$13 15-16x $194-207 78-90%
Calculations are based on Glenviews projections, which may not prove to be accurate or correct. Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use
of forward looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation.
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CASESTUDY
WELLPOINT HEALTHY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
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WELLPOINT: HEALTHYINVESTMENTOUTLOOK
1. WLP Description Diversified health benefits company providing health, drug,
dental, vision benefits including Blue Cross & Blue Shield plans
The Blue network as 3x the market share of its next closest rival
in the commercial health insurance market, and WLP has
dominant 28% share in its markets
2. Attractive Core Waterfall 2015 and Beyond Revenue 6%
EBIT 9%
EPS 14%
3. Numerous Areas of Upside Optionality PBM asset value
Cash EPS
Excess subsidiary revenues Adding leverage for accretive M&A/repurchase
4. Overcapitalized ~24-27% dry powder as % of market cap
5. Cheap and Getting Cheaper
6. Enhanced Focus on Shareholder Value New CEO (March 2013), new Head of Government Division,
new Chief Strategy Officer, new CIO
New Chairman of the Board and 4 new Directors
Symbol WLP
Share Price $100.87
Shares Out 293 M
Market Cap $29.5 B
Parent Cash $2.0 B
Debt $14.5 B
EV $41.9 B
Debt/Cap 37%
Dry Powder
% of Market Cap 24 - 27%
Health Insurance Provider
2014E 2015E
EPS ~$9 ~$10
P/E ~11x ~10x
Financials
P/E 2015E 2016E
Base Estimates 10.5x 9.3x
+ Cash EPS 10.0x 8.9x
+ New PBM Deal 9.4x 8.4x+ Debt/Cap 45% 8.6x 7.8x
+ All 3 of the Above 7.3x 6.7x
Data sourced from company materials and Glenviews projections, which may not prove to be accurate or correct. This example has been selected to illustrate Glenviews investment approach and/or market outlook and is not intended
to represent the Funds performance or be an indicator for how the Funds have performed or may perform in the future. This example has been selected solely for this purpose and has not been selected on the basis of performance orany performance-related criteria. In addition, certain statements contained herein are based on Glenviews research, analysis, opinions and assumptions made by Glenview, which may not prove to be accurate or correct. Please refer to
pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use of forward looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation.
WHO DOESNT LOVE OPTIONS?
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WHODOESNTLOVEOPTIONS?
WellPoint = All the benefits of the base case for HMOs, trading at 10x 2015 earnings
+
Option 1
PBM Options in 2017-2019
+
Option 2
Move to Cash Earnings to conform to Buffett Math
+
Option 3
Excess Capital Deployment
+
Option 4
Rising Interest Rates
+
Option 5
Duals Opportunity
+
Option 6
Medicaid Expansion
Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of forward-looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation. In addition, certain statements contained herein are
based on Glenviews research, analysis, opinions and assumptions made by Glenview, which may not prove to be accurate or corr ect.
SO NICE LETS SELL IT TWICE
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SONICE, LETSSELLITTWICE
Options to Unlock PBM Value which could happen as early as 2017:
Improve terms of the current outsourcing arrangement with incumbent (ESRX) or another PBM,
closer to comparable recent transactions
Achieving terms similar to AET/CVS (2010) or CI/CTRX (2013) would add ~$750M to WLP EBIT (+19%)
On reduced share count in 2019, this will add approximately $2 in EPS or $26-28 in future value
I. Improved Terms
Receive another up-front payment to renew the long-term lease on the outsourced PBM from the
incumbent or another PBM
ESRX paid $4.7B for the contract in Dec 2009
A new deal could be worth >$5B in 2017 (+16% of WLP market cap after taxes)
II. Up-Front Payment
Bring the PBM in-house (like UNH)
We believe this option is least likely
In 2009, WLP announced the sale of their PBM assets and operations
for the next 10 years to Express Scripts for $4.7B
Thus, in Dec. 2019 they reclaim their PBM
Investors value WLP PBM at zero. In 2019, we believe its worth $25-30 per share or $15in present value today.
III. In-Source
Calculations are based on Glenviews projections, which may not prove to be accurate or correct. Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use
of forward looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation.
BUFFETTS RIGHT GOODWILL DOESNT AMORTIZE
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BUFFETT SRIGHTGOODWILLDOESN TAMORTIZE
Companies should be valued based on Cash EPS (excl. acquisition amortization)
when this metric is a more accurate reflection of FCF/share than GAAP EPS
Several Healthcare companies have switched
to Cash EPS in recent years, includingand we think it is the right metric for WLP too
Subsidiary Dividends
Last Five Years
Cash Net Income= >120%
Switching to Cash EPS would add~$0.50 (+6%) to WLP EPS
Calculations are based on Glenviews projections, which may not prove to be accurate or correct. Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use
of forward looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation.
DRY POWDER THE PENDULUM HAS MORE ROOM TO SWING
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DRYPOWDERTHEPENDULUMHASMOREROOMTOSWING
37%
45%Max leverage to
maintain investment
grade as per rating
agencies
WLP Valuation
2015E 2016E
Current leverage 10.5x 9.3x
+ 43% Debt / Cap 8.8x 8.0x
+ 45% Debt / Cap 8.6x 7.8x
Dry
Powder
27%
Dry
Powder
19%
2015 Debt / Cap
Peers
HUM 22%
CI 33%
UNH 34%
AET 36%
Excess reserves at subsidiaries = 6% of market cap
43%
Dry
Powder
24%
PAGE30
Data sourced from company materials and Bloomberg. Calculations are based on Glenviews projections, which may not prove to be accurate or correct. Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures
regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use of forward looking statements, opinions and projections in this presenta tion. In addition, certain statements contained herein are based on Glenviews
research, analysis, opinions and assumptions made by Glenview, which may not prove to be accurate or correct.
OTHER OPTIONS & TARGET PRICE
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OTHEROPTIONS& TARGETPRICE
Calculations are based on Glenviews projections, which may not prove to be accurate or correct. Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use
of forward looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation.
Interest Rates
Duals
Medicaid Expansion
Interest rate increase of 280 bps based on the forward
curve would worth $0.70 (+8%)to earnings power by 2018
CBOs current schedule for Duals would be worth ~$0.60
(+7%)to earnings power by 2018
If all of WLPs states were to expand Medicaid today, itwould be worth up to $0.30 (+4%)to earnings power
2015E Multiple Target Price % Upside
Base Case ~$10 13-14x $125-134 24-33%
+ Cash EPS >$10 13-14x $131-142 30-40%
+ New PBM Deal ~$11 13-14x $139-150 38-49%
+ Debt/Cap of 45% >$11 13-14x $153-165 52-63%
+ All 3 of the Above >$13 13-14x $179-193 78-91%
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CASESTUDY
FEEDING 9 BILLION PEOPLE
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FEEDING9 BILLIONPEOPLE
1 in 7 people today do not have
access to sufficient protein and
energy in their diet, and even more
suffer from malnourishment1
The Inescapable Facts:
Between population growth and percapita consumption trends, food
demand will nearly double by 20502
Arable land is a finite resource
1State of Food Insecurity in the World, Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. 2Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding Nine Billion People, Godfray, H.C. et al., Science 327, 812-818
(2000). 3Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. 4Tilman et al. Global Food and the Sustainable intensification of agriculture Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 108 (2011). Calculations are basedon Glenviews projections, which may not prove to be accurate or correct. Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use of forward looking
statements, opinions and projections in this presentation.
1
2
35,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
2009 2050
5
8
10
13
15
Global Population & Food Consumption3,4
Arable
Land1.4 B
Hectares
Global
Population(B)
Global Food
Consumption(M kcal
per day)
~1.5 BHectares
60%100% Growth in
Calories is Needed
6.8 B
9.5 B
Low
estimate
High
estimate
Population
Population
PAGE33
HOW TO FEED THE WORLD WITHOUT DESTROYING IT
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HOWTOFEEDTHEWORLDWITHOUTDESTROYINGIT
GMO seeds are the worlds best option for sustainably meeting demand
Food
Inflation
Environmental
Impact
Structural
Limit
High grain prices need for ROIC
Comes from deforestation
Stresses water supply
Can help with efficiency
But, cap. intensive w/ quest. ROIC
Government restrictions
Infrastructure lacking
Saturation in developed world
Credit limits in emerging markets
Limits on application rates
Small % of farmer costs
Seed prices increase with yields
Studies say no negative impact
Lower usage of toxic chemicals
Drought-tolerance reduces H20 req.
Quick adopt. when govt not in way
No capital or credit limitations
Increase Arable Land
Option #1
Capital Equipment
Option #2
Fertilizer & Chemicals
Option #3
GMO Seeds
Option #4
Toxic
Issues
Positive impact on yield
But, incr. costs at extreme prices
Increased fuel and emissions
PAGE34
Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use of forward looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation.
SEPARATING FACT FROM FICTION
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PAGE35
SEPARATINGFACTFROMFICTION
GMOs are meddling
with Mother Nature
Fiction
GMOs are unsafe
Seed manufacturersbenefit at the expense
of farmers and society
Fact
Around 8500 BC people started breeding the desirable traits of wild plants into their crops to increase
yields its called farming
The WHO, the AMA, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the British Royal Society, and every other
respected organization that has examined the evidence has come to the same conclusion: consuming
foods containing ingredients derived from GM crops is no riskier than consuming the same foods
containing ingredients from crop plants modified by conventional plant improvement techniques.
-American Association for the Advancement of Science, October 2012
MON earns a 25% incentive fee
Revenues go up proportional to higher yields their products create
969798990001020304050607080910111213
25
40
55
70
85
100
115
130
Pre-MON
Income
Higher Seed
Price
Yield Benefit
and Cost Saves
Post-MON
Income
Yield &
Insecticide Use(Indexed,
1996 = 100)
Value to the FarmerU.S. Corn & Soy Since the Launch of GMO
1Yield data per USDA.2 Benbrook: Impacts of genetically engineered crops on pesticide use in the U.S. the first sixteen years. Environmental Sciences Europe 2012 24:24. Calculations are based on
Glenviews projections, which may not prove to be accurate or correct. Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use of forward lookingstatements, opinions and projections in this presentation.
72% decrease in
insecticide usage
23% increase in
yields
MONSANTO: ALL THE TRAITS OF A GREAT INVESTMENT
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PAGE36
MONSANTO: ALLTHETRAITSOFAGREATINVESTMENT
Data sourced from company reports. Debt is pro forma for $1.0B of debt issued subsequent to FY2013 related to acquisition of Climate Corporation. Calculations based on Glenviews projections , which
may not prove to be accurate or correct. Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use of forward looking statements, opinions and projectionsin this presentation.
P/E CY 2014E CY 2015E
With current
capitalization19x 15x
Pro forma at 2.5x
Debt/EBITDA17x 12x
Symbol MON
Share Price $112.00
Shares Out 533M
Market Cap $59.7B
Cash $3.8B
Debt $3.2B
EV $59.0B
Net Debt/EBITDA (0.1x)
Dry Powder
% of Market Cap
$15.8B
27%
Seed & Trait Manufacturer
CAGR 13-17
Revenue Growth 9%
EBIT Growth 21%
EPS Growth 24%
2014E 2015E
EPS ~$6 ~$7
P/E 19x 15x
Financials
1. Great Business
Seeds and Traits (80% of profit)
Defensive, recurring, acyclical
2. Attractive Core Waterfall Revenues 7%
GP 8%
EBIT 12%
EPS 15%
3. Numerous Upside Levers
Near-term: COGS, LatAm Soy
Medium-term: Greater Yield, New Traits, DD Pricing
Long-term: Precision Farming
4. Massively Overcapitalized
27% to 56% dry powder
5. Cheap and Getting Cheaper
6. Enhanced Focus on Shareholder Value
NOT TO SOUND DEFENSIVE BUT ITS GROWTH IS ORGANIC
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High recurring revenue
70% seed and traits is non-discretionary
Dominant share and presence
Subject to weather not economic cycles
NOTTOSOUNDDEFENSIVE, BUTITSGROWTHISORGANIC
Monsantos franchise and defensive characteristics
are on par with the best 'large moat' businesses:
Cell Towers Pharmaceutical Services
Online Search, Shopping & Travel
Massive barriers to entry:
Seed shares are perpetual local monopolies based
upon historical use
Each year of efficient breeding grows yields by 3%
Without a time machine, uncatchable lead
Traits are progressively stacked and again winners
create winnersseed industry must license MON traits
Taken together, this creates attractive and defensive organic core growth
MON Share
Seeds Traits
US Soy 28% 100%
US Corn 38% 90%
Revenues
7%GP
8%EBIT
12%EPS
15%
PAGE37
Data is sourced from company materials. Calculations based on Glenviews projections, which may not prove to be accurate or correct.Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosure regarding the use
of highlighted securities and the use of forward looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation.
STACKING GROWTH ON GROWTH
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STACKINGGROWTHONGROWTH
PAGE38
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
MON EPS Growth1
$1,400
$1,800
$2,200
$2,600
$3,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Extraordinary COGS
Several natural disasters have led to a
buildup of extraordinary costs which
should unwind in coming years
$1,507
$1,796$1,941
$2,225
$2,668
Extra
Costs
10% to
20% of
EPS
COGS Relief
South America
120M acres
$0 revenue today
North America
80M acres
$1.7BRevenue
today (11% of total)
LatAm Soy with $1.75 of EPS by 2017
LatAm Soy Launch Accelerating Yields
Corn Demand Will Nearly
DoubleAcres Will Not
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2
4
6
8
10
2 00 0 2 00 5 2 01 0 2 01 5 2 02 0 2 02 5 2 03 0
Corn Demand
Bushels
Harvested
(B)
Hectares
Planted
(B)
Yields must grow 75% by 2030 to feed the world
2% yield CAGR must accelerate to 3%
Year
100%
140%
180%
220%
260%
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
MON Provides the Solution
Future: 3% Yield = 9% MON Pricing =
15% EPS CAGR
Indexed
to 2003
MON Price
8% CAGR
Corn Yields
2% CAGR
Increase in
MON Price($/Acre)
Increase in
Yield(bu/Acre)
Value to the
farmer @$4.50 Corn
ROI to
thefarmer
$10 8 bu $36 260%
U.S. Drought Resistant Corn
(launched 2013)
South American Corn Trade-up
(launched 2012)
Brazil: Singles to Doubles
Argentina: Doubles to Triples
New Traits
DD paying more for MON traits
To protect margin, they need to
raise price
Ironically, this also helps MON
soy seed pricing
1-2% pricing uplift
DuPont price increases in Soy
create competitive halo
Data sourced from company materials and Glenviews projections, which may not prove to be accurate or correct. This example has been selected to illustrate Glenviews investment approach and/or market outlook and is not intended
to represent the Funds performance or be an indicator for how the Funds have performed or may perform in the future. This example has been selected solely for this purpose and has not been selected on the basis of performance orany performance-related criteria. In addition, certain statements contained herein are based on Glenviews research, analysis, opinions and assumptions made by Glenview, which may not prove to be accurate or correct. Please refer to
pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use of forward looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation.
EPS growth based on Glenviews projections through end of
Fiscal Year 2017; assumes midpoint of management price/mix
guidance, reversal of extraordinary corn seed COGS,
contribution from Intacta rollout and management guided
South America corn trait trade up.
HEY BATTER BATTER SWING BATTER!
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HEYBATTERBATTER, SWING, BATTER!
PAGE39
Data sourced from company materials and Bloomberg. Calculations based on Glenviews projections, which may not prove to be accurate or correct. Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosure
regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use of forward looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation.
(0.1x)
1.0x 4.0x
2.5x
Peers
Quality Chemicals
If We Were King
For a Day
2014
14%
2017
37%
2014
27%
2017
55%
2014
39%
2017
72%
MON Valuation
CY 2014 CY 2015
Base 19x 15x
1.0x Leverage 18x 14x2.5x Leverage 17x 12x
4.0x Leverage 16x 11x
As a defensive monopoly with multiple upside levers, Monsanto
is suboptimally hoarding capital and value is trapped
Dry Powder
Dry Powder
Dry Powder
ENHANCED FOCUS ON SHAREHOLDER VALUE
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ENHANCEDFOCUSONSHAREHOLDERVALUE
Over the past nine months Management and the Board have taken small steps towards convergence:
If Monsanto utilizes their dry powder well in addition to executing on the myriad of growth opportunities,
we expect that shareholder value will grow
Based on our analysis and with feedback we've gotten from many of our owners, we are
now moving to use the cash over and above our current levels to further prioritize our share
buyback and dividend programs.
The best example of that more aggressive approach is the recent authorization by our boardof a new $2 billion three-year buyback program.
Practically, this is the first time in our company's history where we've doubled the size of our
buyback program. Our current program was approved in June of last year. So between what
we spend for Q3, additional spending in the first month of Q4 and our expected program for
the remainder of the quarter, we have accelerated the current buyback program.
Pierre Courduroux, CFO
1. ~$450M repurchase per quarter
2. $2B repurchase authorization
3. Discussion of enhanced dividends
$4.56Base Growth Base Base
LatAm Soy LatAm SoyCOGS
COGS
New Traits New Traits
Maintain 2.5x
Net Leverage
$2.00
$7.00
$12.00
$17.00
FY13A FY17E - Base FY17E - Accelerants FY17E - Balance Sheet Deployed
~$15
~$11
~$8
~24% CAGR
~15% CAGR
~35% CAGR
PAGE40
This chart includes the following assumptions, projections, forward looking statements and opinions: 15% Base EPS growth assumes ~9% revenue, ~13% EBIT and 15% EPS growth. Assumes MON reaches 2.5x Net Debt / EBITDA during
FY2014E and maintains that leverage. All free cash flow after dividends and proceeds from increased debt used to repurchase. Assumes 15% stock price appreciation per year. Calculations are based on Glenviews projections, which may notprove to be accurate or correct. Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use of forward looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation.
This example has been selected to illustrate Glenviews investment approach and/or market outlook and is not intended to representthe Funds performance or be an indicator for how the F unds have performed
or may perform in the future. This example has been selected solely for this purpose and has not been selected on the basis of performance or any performance-related criteria. In addition, certain statements
contained herein are based on Glenviews research, analysis, opinions and assumptions made by Glenview, which may not prove to be accurate or correct.
VALUATION
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Aug 2017 EPS P/E Range Target Price 2-Year % Return
Base Case ~$8 17x-20x $136-$160 21%-43%
+ Accelerants: LatAm Soy, COGS relief, New Traits ~$11 17x-20x $187-$220 67%-96%
+ Net Leverage at 2.5x ~$15 17x-20x $255-$300 128%-168%
VALUATION
PAGE41
Calculations are based on Glenviews projections, which may not prove to be accurate or correct. Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosures regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use
of forward looking statements, opinions and projections in this presentation.
Historically, Monsanto has traded at 20-22x forward earnings per share. Using a more
conservative 17-20x multiple on FY17 earnings yields two year price appreciation in the
range of 21% to as high as 168%, assuming capital deployment at 2.5x leverage.
Importantly, these targets give no value to Monsantos investment in Precision Farming, as there is no
positive earnings contribution assumed in the near-term
PLANTINGASEEDFORANADDITIONAL$24 OFEPS IN10 YEARS1
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$
1. MON has been investing in & developing "Integrated Farming Systems" or Precision Farming
This is analogous to personalized medicine
Using informatics and data to develop optimal solutions by farm
FieldScripts(internally developed product)
Timing: rolling out commercially for first time this year onto hundreds of thousands of acres
Pricing: $10 per acre
Value to farmer: gives farmers 5-10 bushels per acre (~$30 of value to farmer)
Climate Corporation(acquired October 2013 for $930M)
At 85% incremental margins, this equates to $24 in EPS
on current shares, achievable over the coming decade
2. Monsanto currently has 2 platforms
3. At its investor day in November 2013, MON estimated that these two platforms together
can reach 1 billion acres at $20 per acre
PAGE42
Data sourced from company materials. Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosure regarding the use of highlighted securities and the use of forward looking statements, opinions and projections in this
presentation.
1 This calculation is based on Glenviews research, analysis, projections and opinions, which may not prove to be
accurate or correct. Please refer to pages 46-48 for important disclosure regarding the use of forward looking
statements, opinions and projections in this presentation. Securities highlighted in this slide have been selected
to illustrate Glenviews investment approach and/or market outlook and are not intended to represent the Funds
performance or be an indicator for how the Funds have performed or may perform in the future. This example
has been selected solely for this purpose and has not been selected on the basis of performance or any
performance-related criteria. The securities discussed herein do not represent an entire portfolio and in the
aggregate may only represent a small percentage of a Funds holdings.
WE LIKE THE AND BUSINESS
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WELIKETHEAND BUSINESS
PAGE43
Often times capital allocation choices are presented as mutually exclusive OR choices
Will I invest in the business for the long-term? Will we pursue short-term value through share buybacks?OR
We prefer the AND business
Monsanto can:
1. Continue to have strong business
2. Invest >$1.7B annually in R&D
3. Invest $300 million annually in technology acquisitions
4. Increase leverage to 2.5x net Debt/EBITDA to drive per share value
5. Have $8B available for opportunistic acquisitions
6. Retain a strong, investment grade credit rating
7. Pursue and invest in Precision Farming
If Monsanto wishes to accelerate investment in Precision Farming, they may also:
1. IPO
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PAGE44
Glenview Capital is proud to be part of a team of hedge fund managers who
have and will continue to support the critical work of the Sohn Foundation
THANKYOU
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PAGE45
We Applaud the Men and Women Who
Make the Work of the Foundation Possible
The name on the front is a hell of a lot more
important than the one on the back!Herb Brooks, Miracle
IMPORTANTADDITIONALDISCLOSURES
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This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any interest in any investment fund (each, a Fund or together the
Funds) managed by Glenview Capital Management, LLC ("Glenview"). Such offer or solicitation may only be made by delivery ofoffering documents
containing a description of the material terms of any investment, including risk factors and conflicts of interest. Any such offering will be made on a private
placement basis to a limited number of eligible investors. You should conduct your own investigation and analysis of Glenview and the Funds. Anyone
considering an investment in the Funds should review carefully and completely the applicable Funds Offering Documents, including the Offering
Memorandum of such Fund, the applicable subscription documents, the applicable Governing Documents and Glenviews Form ADV Part 2, in their entirety
and ask questions of representatives of the Funds before investing.
Benchmark Comparisons
Information about indices is provided to allow for comparisons to that of certain wellknown and widelyrecognized indices. Such information is included
solely for the purpose of showing comparisons and general trends, as displayed in the relevant charts.
Definitions for indices used in this presentation are included below:
S&P 500 Index
The Standard and Poors 500 Index (the S&P 500 Index) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance ofthe broad U.S. economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The S&P 500 Index was developed
with a base level of 10 for the 1940-43 base period. Returns shown in this presentation for the S&P 500 Index reflect total returns, which captures the
changes in the prices of the index components and which accounts for dividend reinvestment.
S&P 500 Internet Retail Index
The Standard and Poors 500 Internet Retail Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the
1941-1943 base period. The parent index is the S&P 500 Index. This is a GICS Level 4 Sub-Industry group.
PAGE 46
IMPORTANTADDITIONALDISCLOSURES
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Past performance is not indicative nor a guarantee of future results. There can be no assurance that any Fund will achieve comparable results in the future or
that it will be able to avoid losses. There can be no assurance that Glenview will be able to implement its investment strategy or investment approach to
receive comparable results. Additionally, Glenview may not be able to dispose of its investments on the terms or at the time it wishes to do so.
Highlighted Securities
Securities highlighted or discussed in this presentation have been selected to illustrate Glenviews investment approach and/or market outlook and are notintended to represent the Funds performance or be an indicator for how the Funds have performed or may perform in the future. The securities discussed
herein do not represent an entire portfolio and in the aggregate may only represent a small percentage of a Funds holdings. Each security discussed in this
presentation has been selected solely for this purpose and has not been selected on the basis of performance or any performance-related criteria. The
portfolios of the Funds are actively managed and securities discussed in this presentation may or may not be held in such portfolios at any given time.
Nothing in this presentation shall constitute a recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument referenced in this
presentation. In addition, certain statements contained herein are based on Glenviews research, analysis, forward looking statements, opinions, projections
and assumptions made by Glenview.
Forward Looking Statements, Opinions and Projections
This presentation contains certain forward looking statements, opinions and projections that are based on the assumptions and judgments of Glenview and
the Funds with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and market conditions and future business decisions, all of which are difficult or
impossible to predict accurately and many of which are beyond the control of Glenview or the Funds. Because of the significant uncertainties inherent in
these assumptions and judgments, you should not place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, nor should you regard the inclusion of these
statements as a representation by Glenview or that the Funds will achieve and strategy, objectives or other plans. All forward looking statements and
projections are made as of the date of this document. The opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. There
is no obligation to update these forward looking statements, projections and/or opinions to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof, nor is there
any assurance that the policies, strategies or approaches discussed herein will not change. For the avoidance of doubt, any such forward looking statements,
opinions, assumptions and/or judgments made by Glenview and the Funds may not prove to be accurate or correct.
PAGE 47
IMPORTANTADDITIONALDISCLOSURES
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Information Obtained From Third-Party Sources
Certain economic and market information contained herein has been obtained from published sources prepared by other parties, which in certain cases has
not been updated through the date of the distribution of these materials. While such sources are believed to be reliable for the purposes used herein,
Glenview does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Further, no third party has assumed responsibility for
independently verifying the information contained herein and accordingly no such persons make any representations with respect to the accuracy,
completeness or reasonableness of the information provided herein.
Unless otherwise indicated, market analysis and conclusions are based upon opinions or assumptions that Glenview considers to be reasonable.
IRS Circular 230 Notice
To ensure compliance with Internal Revenue Service Circular 230, each prospective investor is hereby notified that: (a) any discussion of United States federal
tax issues in this presentation is not intended or written by any of the foregoing to be relied upon, and cannot be relied upon by prospective investors, for the
purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed on investors under the internal revenue code; (b) such discussion is written in connection with the
promotion or marketing of the transactions or matters addressed herein; and (c) each prospective investor should seek advice based on its particular
circumstances from an independent tax advisor.