ipsospoll onducted for reuters core political data · * starting june 1st, 2016, this slide will...
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© 2016 Ipsos 1
Core Political Data
07.29.2016
Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
2
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted
for date
July 25-29, 2016
For the survey,
a sample of
2,157Americans
including
899Democrats
753Republicans
266Independents
18+
ages
w e r e i n t e r v i e w e d o n l i n e
3
The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval.
In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points
For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
2.4
for all adults
3.7
Democrats
4.1
Republicans
6.9
Independents
© 2016 Ipsos 4
The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by:
–Gender
– Age
– Education
– Ethnicity
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls.
All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent.
Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit http://polling.reuters.com/.
© 2016 Ipsos 5
Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
Right Direction/Wrong Track
18%
68%
14%
Right Direction
Wrong Track
Don’t Know
All Adults
34%
51%
16% 8%
87%
5% 12%
78%
11%
Democrats Republicans Independents
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
© 2016 Ipsos 6
In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today?
Total Democrat Republican Independent
Economy generally 15% 14% 17% 16%
Unemployment / lack of jobs 9% 9% 8% 12%
War / foreign conflicts 3% 3% 4% 1%
Immigration 5% 2% 8% 4%
Terrorism / terrorist attacks 24% 21% 31% 20%
Healthcare 7% 8% 6% 8%
Energy issues 1% 2% 0% 1%
Morality 9% 6% 11% 14%
Education 4% 8% 1% 3%
Crime 8% 11% 5% 7%
Environment 2% 4% 1% 3%
Don’t know 5% 2% 2% 5%
Other 7% 8% 6% 6%
Main Problem Facing AmericaALL ADULT AMERICANS
© 2016 Ipsos 7
Main Problem Facing AmericaALL ADULT AMERICANS
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%Economy Generally
Unemployment / jobs
Healthcare
Terrorism
Immigration
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
© 2016 Ipsos 8
Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”) Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”)
Total Democrat Republican Independent
Strongly approve 26% 54% 5% 13%
Somewhat approve 16% 24% 8% 16%
Lean towards approve 3% 3% 1% 3%
Lean towards disapprove 3% 2% 2% 7%
Somewhat disapprove 11% 7% 13% 19%
Strongly disapprove 35% 8% 69% 32%
Not sure 6% 2% 1% 9%
TOTAL APPROVE 45% 81% 15% 33%
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 49% 17% 84% 58%
Barack ObamaALL ADULT AMERICANS
© 2016 Ipsos 9* Starting June 1st, 2016, this slide will reflect data from the same five-day field period as the rest of this report. Previously, this chart was based off of a seven-day roll-up.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
JAN
1-7
, 20
12
JAN
22
-28
, 20
12
FEB
12
-18
, 20
12
MA
R 4
-MA
R 1
0, 2
01
2M
AR
25
-31
, 20
12
AP
R 1
5-2
1, 2
01
2M
AY
6-1
2, 2
01
2M
AY
27
-JU
N 2
, 20
12
JUN
17
-23
, 20
12
JUL
8-1
4, 2
01
2JU
L 2
9-A
UG
4, 2
01
2A
UG
19
-25
, 20
12
SEP
T 1
0-1
5, 2
01
2SE
PT
30
-OC
T 6
, 20
12
OC
T 2
1-2
7, 2
01
2N
OV
11
-17
, 20
12
DEC
2-8
, 20
12
DEC
23
-29
, 20
12
JAN
8-1
4, 2
01
3JA
N 2
9-F
EB 4
, 20
13
FEB
19
-25
, 20
13
MA
R 1
2-1
8, 2
01
3A
PR
2-8
, 20
13
AP
R 2
3-2
9, 2
01
3M
AY
14
-20
, 20
13
JUN
4-1
0, 2
01
3JU
N 2
5-J
UL
1, 2
01
3JU
L 1
6-2
2, 2
01
3A
UG
6-1
2, 2
01
3A
UG
27
-SEP
T 2
, 20
13
SEP
T 1
7-2
3, 2
01
3O
CT
8-1
4, 2
01
3O
CT
29
-NO
V 4
, 20
13
NO
V 1
9-2
5, 2
01
3D
EC 1
0-1
6, 2
01
3D
ECEM
BER
31
, 20
13
JAN
15
-21
, 20
14
FEB
5-1
1, 2
01
4FE
B 2
6-M
AR
4, 2
01
4M
AR
19
-25
, 20
14
AP
R 9
-15
, 20
14
AP
R 3
0-M
AY
6, 2
01
4M
AY
21
-27
, 20
14
JUN
11
-17
, 20
14
JUL
2-8
, 20
14
JUL
23
-29
, 20
14
AU
G 1
3-1
9, 2
01
4SE
PT
3-9
, 20
14
SEP
T 2
4-3
0, 2
01
4O
CT
15-
21
, 20
14
NO
V 5
-11
, 20
14
NO
V 2
6-D
EC 1
, 20
14
DEC
17
-23
, 20
14
JAN
8-1
4, 2
01
5JA
N 2
9-F
EB 4
, 20
15
FEB
. 19
-25
, 20
15
MA
RC
H 1
2-1
8, 2
01
5A
PR
IL 2
-8, 2
01
5A
PR
IL 2
3-2
9, 2
01
5M
AY
21
-27
, 20
15
JUN
11
-JU
N 1
7, 2
01
5JU
LY 1
-JU
LY 7
, 20
15
JULY
22
-JU
LY 2
8, 2
01
5A
UG
12
-A
UG
18
, 20
15
SEP
T 3
-9, 2
01
5SE
PT
24
-30
, 20
15
OC
TOB
ER 1
5-2
1, 2
01
5N
OV
EMB
ER 4
-10
, 20
15
NO
VEM
BER
25
-…D
ECEM
BER
16
-22
, 20
15
JAU
NA
RY
6-1
2, 2
01
6JA
NU
AR
Y 2
9-F
EBR
UA
RY …
FEB
RU
AR
Y 2
0-2
4, 2
01
6M
AR
CH
11
-15
, 20
16
AP
RIL
2-A
PR
IL 6
, 20
16
AP
RIL
22
-26
, 20
16
MA
Y 1
3-1
7, 2
01
6JU
NE
4-8
, 20
16
JUN
E 2
5-2
9, 2
01
6JU
LY 1
6-2
0, 2
01
6
45%
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Weekly Approval
Total Approve
Total Disapprove
49%
© 2016 Ipsos 10
REGISTERED VOTERS / LIKELY VOTERS
Trump / Clinton Head-to-Head
If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were as below, for whom would you vote?(Asked of registered voters, n=1,290)
Likely Voters (LV)
RegisteredVoters (RV)
Democrats (RV)
Republicans(RV)
Independents(RV)
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 40% 40% 75% 6% 23%
Donald Trump (Republican) 35% 33% 9% 70% 20%
Other 8% 12% 8% 10% 30%
Wouldn’t Vote 5% 5% 2% 4% 9%
Don’t know / Refused 12% 11% 6% 9% 17%
Likely Voter: n= 1,050
© 2016 Ipsos 11
REGISTERED VOTERS
Trump / Clinton Head-to-Head
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1/6
/16
1/1
3/1
6
1/2
0/1
6
1/2
7/1
6
2/3
/16
2/1
0/1
6
2/1
7/1
6
2/2
4/1
6
3/2
/16
3/9
/16
3/1
6/1
6
3/2
3/1
6
3/3
0/1
6
4/6
/16
4/1
3/1
6
4/2
0/1
6
4/2
7/1
6
5/4
/16
5/1
1/1
6
5/1
8/1
6
5/2
5/1
6
6/1
/16
6/8
/16
6/1
5/1
6
6/2
2/1
6
6/2
9/1
6
7/6
/16
7/1
3/1
6
7/2
0/1
6
7/2
7/1
6
33% Trump
**The vertical line indicates the week that the Reuters/Ipsos poll changed the wording for the voting intention question, removing the word ‘Neither’ from the ‘Neither/Other’ choice that had been present previously. To read more on this change, please visit: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-reutersipsos-idUSKCN10910T and http://spotlight.ipsos-na.com/index.php/elections/reuters-ipsos-presidential-ballot-question/
40% Clinton
7/2
9/2
01
6
© 2016 Ipsos 12
REGISTERED VOTERS / LIKELY VOTERS
Trump / Clinton Head-to-Head, Including Johnson & Stein
If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were as below, for whom would you vote?(Asked of registered voters, n=1,788)
Likely Voters (LV)
RegisteredVoters (RV)
Democrats (RV)
Republicans(RV)
Independents(RV)
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 37% 37% 72% 6% 21%
Donald Trump (Republican) 37% 34% 8% 72% 19%
Gary Johnson (Libertarian) 5% 8% 5% 9% 18%
Jill Stein (Green) 1% 3% 4% 1% 6%
Other 5% 5% 5% 4% 7%
Wouldn’t Vote 5% 3% 1% 2% 9%
Don’t know / Refused 10% 9% 5% 6% 18%
Likely Voter: n= 1,433
© 2016 Ipsos 13
REGISTERED VOTERS
General Election Candidate Favorability
Would you say you are generally favorable or unfavorable towards these public figures?(Data Collected in 2016)
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1/6
/16
1/1
3/1
6
1/2
0/1
6
1/2
7/1
6
2/3
/16
2/1
0/1
6
2/1
7/1
6
2/2
4/1
6
3/2
/16
3/9
/16
3/1
6/1
6
3/2
3/1
6
3/3
0/1
6
4/6
/16
4/1
3/1
6
4/2
0/1
6
4/2
7/1
6
5/4
/16
5/1
1/1
6
5/1
8/1
6
5/2
5/1
6
6/1
/16
6/8
/16
6/1
5/1
6
6/2
2/1
6
6/2
9/1
6
7/6
/16
7/1
3/1
6
7/2
0/1
6
7/2
7/1
6
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1/6
/16
1/1
3/1
6
1/2
0/1
6
1/2
7/1
6
2/3
/16
2/1
0/1
6
2/1
7/1
6
2/2
4/1
6
3/2
/16
3/9
/16
3/1
6/1
6
3/2
3/1
6
3/3
0/1
6
4/6
/16
4/1
3/1
6
4/2
0/1
6
4/2
7/1
6
5/4
/16
5/1
1/1
6
5/1
8/1
6
5/2
5/1
6
6/1
/16
6/8
/16
6/1
5/1
6
6/2
2/1
6
6/2
9/1
6
7/6
/16
7/1
3/1
6
7/2
0/1
6
7/2
7/1
6
43% Favorable
57% Unfavorable
Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton
43% Favorable
57% Unfavorable
7/2
9/1
67
/29
/16
© 2016 Ipsos 14
REGISTERED VOTERS
Congressional Head-to-Head
In 2016, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate for U.S. Congress in your district where you live?(Asked of registered voters, n=1,788)
Likely Voters (LV)
RegisteredVoters (RV)
Democrats (RV)
Republicans(RV)
Independents(RV)
Democratic Candidate 38% 41% 84% 4% 18%
Republican Candidate 37% 34% 4% 80% 15%
Candidate from Another Party
3% 6% 3% 2% 23%
Will not/do not plan to vote 5% 4% 1% 3% 9%
Don’t know / Refused 16% 16% 8% 11% 34%
Likely Voter: n= 1,433
© 2016 Ipsos 15
All Adults: n= 2,157
14%
19%
7%
6%
16%
11%
12%
7%
7%
40%
34%
12%
14%
Strong Democrat
Moderate Democrat
Lean Democrat
Lean Republican
Moderate Republican
Strong Republican
Independent
None of these
DK
Democrat
Republican
Independent
None/DK
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Political Identity
© 2016 Ipsos 16
The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the •
parameter θ\, i.E., Y|θ~bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y ̅) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the bayesian and the classical framework. The bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution (π(θ/y)~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.
Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals •
represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π(θ/y). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:
How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals
© 2016 Ipsos 17
For this poll, The Bayesian credibility interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2
Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below.
SAMPLE SIZECREDIBILITY INTERVALS
2,000 2.5
1,500 2.9
1,000 3.5
750 4.1
500 5.0
350 6.0
200 7.9
100 11.2
1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 20032 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.
Ipsos does not publish data for base sizes
(sample sizes) below 100.
How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals
© 2016 Ipsos 18
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