ipsos poll conducted for reuters core political...
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© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
02.03.2016
Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters
Core Political Approval
2
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted
for date
January 30-February 3, 2016
For the survey,
a sample of
1,685 Americans
including
704 Democrats
631 Republicans
222 Independents
18+
ages
w e r e i n t e r v i e w e d o n l i n e
3
The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points
For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
2.7
for all adults
4.2
Democrats
4.4
Republicans
7.5
Independents
4
The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by:
─ Gender
─ Age
─ Education
─ Ethnicity
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls.
All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent.
Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit http://polling.reuters.com/.
5
RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACK Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
29%
60%
11%
All Adults 48%
38%
14%
Democrats
9%
87%
4%
Republicans
30%
61%
9%
Independents
Right Direction
Wrong Track
Don’t Know
6
BARACK OBAMA Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”) Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”)
Total Democrat Republican Independent
Strongly approve 22% 41% 5% 14%
Somewhat approve 21% 35% 5% 24%
Lean towards approve 3% 5% 1% 4%
Lean towards disapprove 2% 2% 2% 3%
Somewhat disapprove 13% 9% 14% 17%
Strongly disapprove 34% 6% 70% 33%
Not sure 5% 3% 3% 6%
TOTAL APPROVE 46% 80% 11% 42%
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 49% 17% 87% 53%
7
Please think ahead now to the next Presidential in one year’s time, in 2016. If the 2016 Republican presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote? (Asked of registered voters, n=815)
Total (n=815)
Republican (n=568)
Independent (n=187)
Donald Trump 34% 36% 33%
Marco Rubio 12% 14% 9%
Ted Cruz 12% 16% 4%
Benjamin Carson 8% 8% 8%
Jeb Bush 7% 7% 8%
Chris Christie 4% 5% 3%
Rand Paul 3% 2% 5%
John Kasich 3% 3% 4%
Carly Fiorina 2% 2% 1%
Mike Huckabee 2% 2% 2%
Rick Santorum *% *% 1%
Jim Gilmore *% *% 1%
Wouldn’t vote 13% 4% 22%
TOP 3
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES
8
Please think ahead now to the next Presidential in one year’s time, in 2016. If the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote? (Asked of registered voters, n=866)
Total (n=866)
Democrat (n=619)
Independent (n=187)
Hillary Clinton 47% 54% 32%
Bernie Sanders 38% 39% 37%
Martin O’Malley 4% 2% 10%
Wouldn’t vote 11% 5% 21%
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES
9
HEAD-TO-HEADS If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were as below, for whom would you vote? (Asked of registered voters, n=1,434)
Registered Voters
Ted Cruz (Republican) 34%
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 44% Neither/ Other 12%
Wouldn’t vote 6%
Don’t know/Refused 5%
Donald Trump (Republican) 36%
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 44%
Neither/ Other 9%
Wouldn’t vote 4%
Don’t know/Refused 6%
Donald Trump (Republican) 37%
Bernie Sanders (Democrat) 42%
Neither/ Other 9%
Wouldn’t vote 6%
Don’t know/Refused 7%
Ted Cruz (Republican) 32%
Bernie Sanders (Democrat) 44%
Neither/ Other 11%
Wouldn’t vote 6%
Don’t know/Refused 8%
10
HEAD-TO-HEADS If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were as below, for whom would you vote? (Asked of registered voters, n=1,434)
Registered Voters
Ted Cruz (Republican) 30%
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 41%
Michael Bloomberg (Independent) 11%
Neither/ Other 7%
Wouldn’t vote 5%
Don’t know/Refused 6%
Ted Cruz (Republican) 30% Bernie Sanders (Democrat) 39%
Michael Bloomberg (Independent) 10%
Neither/ Other 7%
Wouldn’t vote 6%
Don’t know/Refused 7%
Donald Trump (Republican) 36%
Bernie Sanders (Democrat) 36%
Michael Bloomberg (Independent) 9%
Neither/ Other 7%
Wouldn’t vote 4%
Don’t know/Refused 7%
Donald Trump (Republican) 35%
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 40%
Michael Bloomberg (Independent) 10%
Neither/ Other 6%
Wouldn’t vote 4%
Don’t know/Refused 6%
11
Weekly Presidential Approval
48%
48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan
1-7
, 20
12
Jan
29
-Feb
4, 2
01
2
Feb
19
-25,
201
2
Mar
11-
17
, 20
12
Ap
r 1
-7, 2
01
2
Ap
r 2
2-2
8, 2
012
May
13
-19,
20
12
Jun
3-9
, 201
2
Jun
24-
Jun
30,
201
2
Jul 1
5-2
1, 2
012
Au
g 5
-11,
20
12
Au
g 2
6-Se
pt
1, 2
012
Sep
t 1
6-2
2, 2
012
Oct
7-1
3, 2
012
Oct
28
-No
v 3
, 20
12
No
v 1
8-2
4, 2
012
Dec
9-1
5, 2
012
Jan
1-7
, 20
13
Jan
22
-28
, 20
13
Feb
12
-18,
201
3
Mar
5-M
ar 1
1, 2
013
Mar
26-
Ap
r 1,
201
3
Ap
r 1
6-2
2, 2
013
May
7-1
3, 2
01
3
May
28
-Ju
n 3
, 201
3
Jun
18-
24
, 20
13
Jul 9
-15
, 20
13
Jul 3
0-A
ug
5, 2
01
3
Au
g 2
0-2
6, 2
01
3
Sep
t 1
0-1
6, 2
013
Oct
1-7
, 20
13
Oct
22
-28
, 20
13
No
v 1
2-1
8, 2
013
Dec
3-9
, 20
13
Dec
24
-30
, 20
13
Jan
15
-21
, 20
14
Feb
5-1
1, 2
014
Feb
26
-Mar
4, 2
014
Mar
19-
25
, 20
14
Ap
r 9
-15
, 20
14
Ap
r 3
0-M
ay 6
, 20
14
May
21
-27,
20
14
Jun
11-
17
, 20
14
Jul 2
-8, 2
01
4
Jul 2
3-2
9, 2
014
Au
g 2
0-2
6, 2
01
4
Sep
t 1
0-1
6, 2
014
Oct
8-1
4, 2
014
Oct
29
-No
v 4
, 20
14
Dec
3-9
, 20
14
Jan
1-7
, 20
15
Jan
22
-28
, 20
15
Feb
. 12
-18
, 20
15
Mar
ch 1
2-1
8, 2
015
Ap
ril 2
-8, 2
01
5
Ap
ril 2
3-2
9, 2
01
5
May
21
-27,
20
15
Jun
11-
Ju
n 1
7, 2
015
July
1-J
uly
7, 2
01
5
July
29
-Au
g 4
, 20
15
Au
g 1
9- A
ug
25
, 20
15
Sep
t 1
0-1
6, 2
015
Oct
ob
er 1
-7, 2
01
5
Oct
ob
er 2
2-2
7, 2
01
5
No
vem
ber
11
-17,
201
5
Dec
em
ber
2-8
, 20
15
Dec
em
ber
23
-29
, 201
5
Jan
uar
y 1
5-1
9, 2
01
6
TOTAL - DISAPPROVE
TOTAL – APPROVE
For tracking purposes, approval ratings in the above graphic reflect weekly roll-ups of our tracking data (a 7-day period), rather than the 5-day period reflected throughout this topline document
12
CORE POLITICAL APPROVAL In your opinion, which political party has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following? (n=923)
All Adults (n=923) Democratic
Party Republican
Party Independents Other None Don’t know
DEM/REP PARTY DIFF
Healthcare 37% 26% 6% 2% 11% 18% 10%
The war on terror 23% 34% 6% 2% 11% 24% -11%
Iran 20% 29% 6% 2% 14% 30% -9%
The US Economy 26% 31% 7% 2% 13% 21% -5%
Immigration 28% 33% 6% 2% 12% 19% -5%
Social Security 31% 23% 7% 2% 14% 24% 8%
Medicare 37% 22% 6% 2% 11% 22% 15%
Taxes 29% 26% 8% 2% 13% 23% 3%
Gay marriage 41% 13% 8% 3% 10% 25% 28%
Jobs and employment 34% 27% 7% 1% 10% 20% 7%
The federal government deficit 23% 28% 7% 2% 14% 26% -5%
Supporting small businesses 30% 27% 9% 2% 9% 23% 3%
Education 36% 20% 8% 1% 11% 23% 16%
Foreign policy 26% 29% 7% 3% 11% 25% -3%
Women’s rights 43% 17% 6% 2% 10% 22% 26%
The environment 35% 17% 8% 3% 12% 25% 18%
Israel 17% 30% 6% 3% 11% 32% -13%
Syria 18% 26% 6% 4% 13% 34% -8%
Energy policy 31% 23% 8% 2% 10% 27% 8%
TOP
Democrats
Republicans
13
43% 41%
37% 37% 36% 35% 34% 31% 31% 30% 29% 28%
26% 26% 23% 23%
20% 18% 17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
In your opinion, which political party has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following? (n=923)
Democratic Party
14
In your opinion, which political party has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following? (n=923)
Republican Party
34% 33% 31% 30% 29% 29% 28% 27% 27% 26% 26% 26%
23% 23% 22% 20%
17% 17%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
15
28% 26%
18% 16% 15%
10% 8% 8% 7%
3% 3%
-3% -5% -5% -5% -8% -9%
-11% -13%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
In your opinion, which political party has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following? (n=923)
Democratic/Republican Party Difference
Democrat Advantage
Republican Advantage
16
Party Identification All Adults: n= 1,673
16%
21%
7%
6%
15%
13%
14%
5%
3%
43%
35%
14%
8%
Strong Democrat
Moderate Democrat
Lean Democrat
Lean Republican
Moderate Republican
Strong Republican
Independent
None of these
DK
Democrat
Republican
Independent
None/DK
17
How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals
• The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter θ\, i.e., Y|θ~Bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y ̅) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the Bayesian and the Classical framework. The Bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution (π(θ/y)~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.
• Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π(θ/y). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the Classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:
18
How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals
For this poll, the Bayesian Credibility Interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2
Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below.
SAMPLE SIZE CREDIBILITY INTERVALS
2,000 2.5
1,500 2.9
1,000 3.5
750 4.1
500 5.0
350 6.0
200 7.9
100 11.2
1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003 2 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.
Ipsos does not publish data for base sizes
(sample sizes) below 100.