ipsos mori political monitor: march 2017

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

1

Ipsos MORIMarch 2017 POLITICAL MONITOR

3Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public

43%

30%

6%

4%

13%4%

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends

vote in General Elections = 745. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015

GE.

Voting Intention

40%

31%

6%

4%

14%

5%

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +9

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +13

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep

03

Mar

04

Sep

04

Mar

05

Sep

05

Mar

06

Sep

06

Mar

07

Sep

07

Mar

08

Sep

08

Mar

09

Sep

09

Mar

10

Sep

10

Mar

11

Sep

11

Mar

12

Sep

12

Mar

13

Sep

13

Mar

14

Sep

14

Mar

15

Sep

15

Mar

16

Sep

16

Mar

17

2015 General Election

Miliband

elected

(Sept 10)

Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

May

as PM

(July 16)

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?


Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote

and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections

Headline voting intention: August ‘03 – March ‘17

2005 General Election 2010 General Election

Cameron

elected

(Dec 05)

Brown

as PM

(June 07)

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM


SATISFACTION WITH THE

GOVERNMENT AND

PARTY LEADERS


14%

51%

35%

Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Paul Nuttall Tim Farron The Government

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF UKIP /LEADER OF THE LIBERAL

DEMOCRATS ?


Base: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 . Paul Nuttall and Tim Farron were asked on a split sample 517 and 515 British adults 18+

respectively. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

38%

54%

7%

52%39%

8%23%

64%

13%

-2%swing from February

2017

-1.5%swing from February

2017

-9.5%swing from January

2017

0%swing from January

2017

+1%swing from February

2017

+13 Net -41 Net -37 Net -10 Net -16 NetSATISFIED 52% SATISFIED 23% SATISFIED 14% SATISFIED 26% SATISFIED 38%

DISSATISFIED 39% DISSATISFIED 64% DISSATISFIED 51% DISSATISFIED 36% DISSATISFIED 54%

26%

36%

38%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month. In February 2016 data for Paul Nuttall and Tim Farron was not collected

Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – Mar 2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Ju

n 1

6

Ju

l 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec

16

Jan

17

Feb

17

Mar

17

MAY CORBYN

52%

23%26%*

14%*


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sati

sfact

ion

NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

May


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …

PARTY?


Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2017)


Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

Net

sati

sfact

ion

HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)

Corbyn


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017

Theresa May (satisfaction)

52%39%

8%

March 2017 August 2016 – March 2017

SATISFIED 52%

DISSATISFIED 39%

DON’T KNOW 8%

Net = +13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 349 Conservative supporters 18+ , 10th – 14th March 2017

Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters

90%

7%4%

March 2017

SATISFIED 90%

DISSATISFIED 7%

DON’T KNOW 4%

Net = +83

August 2016 – March 2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


23%

64%

13%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

SATISFIED 23%

DISSATISFIED 64%

DON’T KNOW 13%

Net = -41

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?


Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

March 2017 September 2015 – March 2017

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


42%

52%

6%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

SATISFIED 42%

DISSATISFIED 52%

DON’T KNOW 6%

Net = -10

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 270 Labour supporters 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


26%

36%

38%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Mar-

17

SATISFIED 26%

DISSATISFIED 36%

DON’T KNOW 38%

Net = -10

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 515 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017

Tim Farron (satisfaction)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PAUL NUTTALL IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

UKIP, THE UK INDEPENDENCE PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 517 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017

Paul Nuttall(satisfaction)

January 2017

18%

36%

46%

SATISFIED 18%

DISSATISFIED 36%

DON’T KNOW 46%

Net = -18

March 2017

14%

51%

35% SATISFIED 14%

DISSATISFIED 51%

DON’T KNOW 35%

Net = -37


ECONOMIC

OPTIMISM


22%

24%

50%

4%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Au

g-0

4

Feb

-05

Au

g-0

5

Mar-

06

Oct

-06

Jun

-07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Feb

-11

Au

g-1

1

Feb

-12

Au

g-1

2

Feb

-13

Au

g-1

3

Feb

-14

Au

g-1

4

Feb

-15

Sep

-15

Mar-

16

Sep

-16

Mar-

17

IMPROVE 22%

STAY THE SAME 24%

GET WORSE 50%

DON’T KNOW 4%

EOI = -28

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


Economic Optimism Index

March 2017


DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jul 1997

No

v 1

997

Mar

1998

Jul 1998

No

v 1

998

Mar

1999

Jul 1999

No

v 1

999

Mar

2000

Jul 2000

No

v 2

000

Mar

2001

Jul 2001

No

v 2

001

Mar

2002

Jul 2002

No

v 2

002

Mar

2003

Jul 2003

No

v 2

003

Mar

2004

Jul 2004

No

v 2

004

Mar

2005

Jul 2005

No

v 2

005

Mar

2006

Jul 2006

No

v 2

006

Mar

2007

Jul 2007

No

v 2

007

Mar

2008

Jul 2008

No

v 2

008

Mar

2009

Jul 2009

No

v 2

009

Mar

2010

Jul 2010

No

v 2

010

Mar

2011

Jul 2011

No

v 2

011

Mar

2012

Jul 2012

No

v 2

012

Mar

2013

Jul 2013

No

v 2

013

Mar

2014

Jul 2014

No

v 2

014

Mar

2015

Jul 2015

No

v 2

015

Mar

2016

Jul 2016

No

v 2

016

Mar

2017

-28


Budget


ON BALANCE DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT: IN THE LONG TERM,

THIS GOVERNMENT’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE THE STATE OF BRITAIN’S ECONOMY


Does the government have the right policies for

47

39

47

49

50

46

53

48

43

44

Mar-12

Mar-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

AGREE DISAGREE

Britain’s economy?


34%

46%

20%

CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PHILLIP HAMMOND IS

DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?


Phillip Hammond (satisfaction)

SATISFIED 34%

DISSATISFIED 46%

DON’T KNOW 20%

Net = -12

39%

28%

34%SATISFIED 39%

DISSATISFIED 28%

DON’T KNOW 34%

Net = +11

March 2017 November 2016


66%

44%

67%

52%

45% 45%

34%

39%

44%42%

37%39%

36%37%

18%

31%

17%

24%

28%

38%

34%

52%

44%

56%

45%

42%

48%

52%

34%

41%

55%57%

48%46%

49%47%

42%

32%

28%

36%

40%

36%38%

28%27%

47%

43%44%

35%

40%

27%

39%

34%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ma

r-76

Ma

r-77

Ap

r-7

8

Jul-

80

Ma

r-82

Jun

-83

Ma

r-85

Ma

r-86

Ma

r-87

Ma

r-88

Ma

r-89

Ma

r-90

Ma

r-91

Ma

r-92

Ma

r-93

Dec-9

3

De

c-9

4

No

v-9

5

De

c-9

5

Nov-9

6

De

c-9

6

Jul-

97

Fe

b-9

8

Ma

r-98

Ma

r-99

Fe

b-0

0

Ma

r-00

Jul-

00

Se

p-0

0

No

v-0

0

Ma

r-01

Ap

r-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

Ma

r-04

No

v-0

5

Fe

b-0

6

De

c-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ma

r-08

Ma

r-10

Jun

-10

Ma

r-11

Dec-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

r-15

Jul-

15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

No

v-1

6

Ma

r-17

CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PHILLIP HAMMOND IS

DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?


Satisfaction with the Chancellor - trends


% saying ‘satisfied’Healey MajorHowe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Darling Osborne Hammond


AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED ITS 2017 BUDGET THIS WEEK/ LAST WEEK.

FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE A GOOD

THING OR A BAD THING….?


Budget reaction

33

38

39

42

For you personally

For the country

GOOD THING BAD THING






Budget reaction

33%

35%

45%

43%

25%

39%

40%

38%

35%

60%

Mar-17

Mar-16

Jul-15

Apr-14

Apr-12


For you personally






Budget reaction


For the country

38%

30%

46%

48%

33%

42%

53%

44%

33%

53%

Mar-17

Mar-16

Jul-15

Apr-14

Apr-12


Brexit


DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE FOLLOWING HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S

EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION


GOOD JOB BAD JOB

36%

33

37%

49%

51%

52%

53

48%

40%

35%

The Government March 2017

The Government (December 2016)

(The Government November 2016)

Theresa May March 2017

Theresa May (December 2016)

Base: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017

Handling Britain’s exit from the European Union


PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR

BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?


Confidence in May to get a good deal for Britain

5%

29%

4%

35%

27%

VERY CONFIDENT FAIRLY CONFIDENT NOT VERY CONFIDENT NOT CONFIDENT AT ALL

11%

33%

5%

28%

23%

Confident 34%

Not

confident62%

Theresa May March 2017 David Cameron February 2016

Confident 44%

Not

confident51%


26%

26%14%

17%

18%

IN A SPEECH ABOUT THE UPCOMING NEGOTIATIONS OVER BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM AND FUTURE

RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION, THERESA MAY SAID “NO DEAL FOR BRITAIN IS BETTER

THAN A BAD DEAL FOR BRITAIN.” TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THIS

STATEMENT?


Is no deal better than a bad deal for Britain?

Agree 52%

Disagree 35%

STRONGLY AGREE TEND TO AGREE TEND TO DISAGREE STRONGLY DISAGREE


IN THE NEGOTIATIONS OVER BRITAIN’S FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION, HOW

IMPORTANT, IF AT ALL, DO YOU THINK IT IS FOR THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT TO ACHIEVE EACH OF THE

FOLLOWING, OR DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD NOT TRY TO ACHIEVE THIS?


Priorities for Britain’s future relationship with the EU

ESSENTIAL VERY IMPORTANT

FAIRLY

IMPORTANT

NOT VERY

IMPORTANT

NOT AT ALL

IMPORTANT

SHOULD NOT TRY

TO ACHIEVE THIS DON’T KNOW

18%

15%

27%

25%

28%

34%

20%

25%

19%

15%

14%

9%

6%

5%

3%

8%

6%

5%

7%

7%

2%

For Britain to make no further contributions to

the EU budget after Britain leaves

For Britain to remain in the single market

For Britain to have full control over its

immigration policy


NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EU, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE

BETTER OR WORSE FOR YOUR OWN STANDARD OF LIVING, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?

ASKED IN MAY AS:

IF BRITAIN VOTES TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WOULD

BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, OR WOULD IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?


Brexit and standard of living

Base: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017

7%

9%

13%

8%

11%

12%

11%

10%

46%

39%

24%

40%

19%

24%

24%

20%

10%

12%

25%

17%

7%

4%

4%

5%

May-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Mar-17

A LOT BETTER A LITTLE BETTER NO DIFFERENCE A LITTLE WORSE A LOT WORSE DON’T KNOW

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

32

March 2017POLITICAL MONITOR

ipsos mori political monitor: march 2017

News & Politics